Halfwits and Wagers is Going Full Tallahassee

Guess who's back. Back again.

Halfwits is back.

Tell a friend.

Guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back, guess who's back...

Who's ready for another year of gambling and hot takes! We're back with your weekly dose of relatively terrible (and mostly fake) gambling advice. By now we all know the set up, but there are a few changes:

First, Pierson left us. By us, I mean me. Apparently he has to do things like be a "husband" and a "dad" and an "employee." Ridiculous, right? But luckily we have someone else on staff whose gambling issue is just as self-destructive as my own, so please welcome Joey Coogan!

We'll also go beyond Tech's weekly game, and delve into some of the bigger matchups around both the ACC and the rest of the country. We'll still focus on the Hokies, but take deep dives into whatever interests us each week.

And lastly, because Joey and I are both competitive and pretend like we know how to wager, we're going to keep score this year. Obviously it won't be on everything (it's impossible to judge who won last year's mullet rankings), but we'll star the ones that'll count towards our total score, and we'll keep it updated every week.

If you're a fellow degenerate, play along. If not, please keep reading with a slight hint of shame in your eyes.

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under: 39.5 Times you can hear the tomahawk chop on TV.

Brian: This is totally dependent on how you think the game will go. If the Hokies come out and punch the Seminoles in the mouth, the crowd (who tends to get a little bit of lemon booty whenever something goes wrong) will get quiet quickly. But if the Tallahassee talent shines (on the field, not at the tailgates), and the Cam Akers train gets going, we're all going to be in for a long night of incessant chanting. I think Akers has a big day, coupled with the fact that the fans down in Doak Campbell will be witnessing a modern college offense for the first time in program history, and I think we'll hit the over.

Joey: For some unknown reason, I made the poor life decision of going to this game. I've never been to Tally so here's to hoping it lives up to its uniquely Florida reputation.

Joey: So how's Tallahassee?

Bad Influence #1: Oh, it's ratchet.

Joey: Sold!

Unfortunately, this also means that I won't have the pleasure of muting my TV midway through the first quarter after Cam Akers rumbles off a 60-yard touchdown run to start what promises to be a long night. My commitment to you, the reader, is that I'll be counting tomahawk chops live in person and doing my very best to not get in a fight with a single Jameis-loving, Jimbo-hating Florida State blowhard.

*Over/Under 249.5 passing yards for Josh Jackson*

Brian: The Hokies need to run the ball to be successful. It means they'll control the clock and give the defense time to rest against Willie Taggart's gulf coast offense. But I don't expect things to go as planned. FSU's interior defense will wreak havoc on a lot of the inside stuff for Steven Peoples and Deshawn McClease, which will make Fuente and company rely on their sophomore quarterback to make plays.

Mason wrote a great article about how to attack the 'Noles' new defense, and it'll require some fades, RPOs, and deep posts off play action. Should Jackson be accurate, I think he'll hit the over.

Joey: Brian knows as well as anybody that I wasn't the biggest Josh Jackson fan last year. He showed glimpses, sure, but the consistency that you look for in any high-level quarterback was sorely lacking.

This is a good line, one that I have no interest in laying anything but internet currency on. That said, judging on rumors alone, I think Damon Hazelton and Hezekiah Grimsley do just enough on the perimeter to hit this over.

P.S. If you're a live gambler (read, if you're a degenerate), this is the classic bet you know the result of within 1 drive. I still like the over. Take that for what you will.

*True or False: Cam Akers will outrush Virginia Tech*

Brian: This is mostly just hyperbolic "sky is falling" thinking, but are we sure this isn't in play? Tech broke 200 yards in just five of their games last season (West Virginia, ECU, ODU, UVA, Oklahoma State), and hovered much closer to 100 yards multiple times. Containing Akers will be the deciding factor as to whether or not Tech can keep this close. If they contain the FSU rushing attack and force Deondre Francois to beat them both on the ground and in the air (which he can also do, by the way), Foster's defense will have done its job.

Or Akers pops a huge run early, circa Ezekiel Elliott in 2015, and the defense has to play on its heels the rest of the way. Considering that I won't trust the ground game until I see it work, I'll (definitely not reverse jinx it) and say true.

Joey: I alluded to it above, and I really don't have much to add. Cam Akers scares the hell out me. Combine that raw athleticism with a Tech defensive line that may need Tyrone Nix to take some snaps at tackle and we could be in for a long night.

That said, I'll actually take Tech here. I like the trio of Jackson, McClease and Peoples to approach 200 yards in rushing (we'll call it 180), and Bud Foster selling out to stop the run should keep Akers around 150 or so (phew, that's a depressing sentence).

Over/Under 2.5 Times Bobby Petrino's face becomes the same color as Louisville's red.

Brian: In case you didn't know, Petrino's Lamar Jackson-less Cardinals are 24.5 point underdogs to Alabama in their neutral site matchup in Orlando. Isn't that the perfect place for this game? Nothing says Disney World like two old white guys in goofy polo shirts screaming at their kids. It's really the happiest place on earth.

Louisville (and Petrino) seem like they're smart enough to accept their fate. It reminds me a bit of Tech's game against the Tide in 2013, where everyone knew the Hokies weren't talented enough to keep it close, and weren't mad when it wasn't. I'll take the under here (but Bama still covers the -24.5.)

Joey: Bobby Petrino right now is a 12-year-old kid who hasn't brushed his teeth in two weeks on his way to the dentist's office. He's sweating profusely, fidgeting uncomfortably, and on the verge of tears for the pain he knows is coming. His only hope is that the kind dentist takes pity on his soul.

Louisville's best case scenario for Saturday night is to make it out alive. If things go well and Uncle Nick is feeling extra generous, they may even get to keep a sliver of dignity. I'll take the over.

Which total is greater: number of old white men mad about Michigan, or number of old white men mad about Notre Dame.

Brian: The Wolverines are a one point dog in South Bend against the Irish. So the renewal of their rivalry coupled with the general angst of both fanbases means that a bunch of old white dudes are going to have hot takes about their football team come Sunday morning. Personally, I think the Jim Harbaugh backlash is only happening because we're all tired of hating on Brian Kelly, who has a much stronger track record of under performing.

I'm going to pick Notre Dame fans to come away angry, for one reason: Shea Patterson is the best quarterback Harbaugh's had since Andrew Luck (yes, this includes his time with the 49ers). There's a legitimate chance that this is the season Michigan blows everyone away and finally capitalizes on the talent they have everywhere else. It's a win for Harbaugh, a win for Wolverine fans, and a win for anyone sick of watching Wilton Speight and Jake Rudock (the winners of three straight Matt Flynn Awards for the most boring quarterbacks on talented teams).

Joey:

/Fires up the hot take machine.

//Breathes deeply.

Jim Harbaugh stinks. He freaking stinks. Setting aside his clear recruiting prowess (and borderline creepy social tendencies), the on-field product in Ann Arbor has been consistently underwhelming since the milk-man's return in 2015. In that span, Michigan has never finished above third (third!) in the Big Ten East, and Harbaugh boasts a UVA-esque 1-5 record against his top two rivals (Ohio State and Michigan State).

To be fair, Harbaugh's troubles most certainly track back to a laughable ineptitude in the quarterback room. My personal favorite was none other than John O'Korn, but if nothing else, Harbaugh's cornered the market on unathletic quarterbacks who spent their entire childhoods dreaming about the chance to repeatedly run full-back dives in-front of a silent Big House.

All of this is to say that Shea Patterson worries me. Put simply, he messes with the universal equilibrium that we've come to know and love in Ann Arbor. Whether it's Ohio State Twitter digging up problematic childhood tweets (ah, the irony) or the fine governing body of the NCAA identifying the most asinine of violations, something needs to be done to get Brandon Peters/Wilton Speight/a random PIKE bro back under center.

Give me mad Michigan men and the over.

*Potentially boring game spread alert! Miami (-3) vs LSU*

Brian: Malik Rosier! Joe Burrow! It's the Matt Flynn Award watch list on ABC!!

(That, my friends, is what we call a callback joke.)

How in the world did Mark Richt make the Hurricanes both good and incredibly boring? It's the worst possible outcome for the rest of us. Because if we have to sit through a season where Miami is consistently in the top-10, don't we all deserve a team that wears fatigues on the team plane, or one that laterals fumble returns and then toys with their chasing opponents? Somehow Pastor Mark has stolen that joy from us, and just made the men in Coral Gables a solid squad with a corny ass chain.

I'll still pick them to win, because they're good. And LSU might not be. Especially because Ed Orgeron is like that teacher you had in high school who used to be a long-term substitute, but then had to take over the full time job. They knew how to have fun, but when it came time for full blown lesson plans, things just got too complicated. Miami wins, Miami covers the three.

Joey: This is a classic heart vs. head game. I love Coach O:

COACH O IS THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME #GeauxTigers pic.twitter.com/XjtbrhzByc— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) November 19, 2017

I mean, what's not to love? He's everything that's right about college football, an authentic, passionate southerner who was quite literally born to coach at LSU. That said, I question the wisdom of running Matt Canada out of town, and longevity has never been the hallmark of Interim Ed's illustrious SEC coaching career.

Forced to pick between two impossibilities (Mark Richt and Ed Orgeron winning a big game), I'll take my guy getting spotted a field goal in what will presumably be a pro-gumbo crowd. Geaux Tigers.

The Joey Coogan Memorial "Navy Hits the Over" Lock of the Week.

Brian: I want to be clear: this does not mean that Navy hitting the over is a lock—at least to anyone other than my partner (I'll let him explain). This is just a category for a line that we each feel irrationally strong about. While I'm sure Joey has a pick (it's kind of in the title of the category), I'll have to stray from the well.

I understand that Auburn returns their quarterback and are coming off a top-10 season, but them being two point favorites over Washington in Atlanta this week seems crazy to me. The Huskies are crazy talented, have a deep defense (who can disrupt Jarrett Stidham like Clemson did last year), and someone still has Jake Browning under center. No one east of the Rockies cares, but Washington is good, and them being underdogs feels like a nice line. Take Chris Peterson and the boys +2.

(A few other games to watch: Army +13.5 at Duke, Northwestern +2.5 at Purdue, Arizona -11.5 vs BYU.)

Joey: OK, so I guess this one may need some context.

I've bet Navy overs every week dating back to 2015, regardless of opponent, line, or weather. The premise is simple: Navy's offense is the tits, and their defense resembles that of a drunk freshman in Pritchard repeatedly running "Engage Eight" against five-wide in Madden while screaming nonsensically at his secondary to "cover a f****ng receiver." In other words, the 2012 version of me.

Not that it matters, but in the spirit of research, Navy opens the season against 1-0 Hawai'i (nailed that +17 degenerate special, BTW). Hawai'i looked surprisingly good against Colorado State, racking up 617 yards en route to a convincing win over the Rams. Their defense, though...let's just say their defense looked like Hawai'i.

The line's at 62.5 (which, again, doesn't matter), so that'll be a Navy over with ten-plus minutes to spare.

Brian: (Told you it didn't make any sense.)

Virginia Tech-Florida State Over/Under: 57

Brian: This won't be a fun game to watch in many respects. Both teams will be rusty and not fully operational, which'll keep the scoring down for at least the first half. Unless something changes dramatically, the Hokies will need to string together a series of long drives to score enough to win. The Seminoles may not look great, but they can pop a few big ones for quick points. I'll pick the under, because it seems like neither offense is ready to put up big numbers in week one.

Joey: I fully expect Florida State to come out sloppy. Much like the Battle of Bristol, a newly introduced high-tempo offense promises to bring some timing and alignment issues that may help a young Hokies defense settle in. Tech should be improved on offense over the long haul, but a 60-minute snapshot against a highly talented FSU defense may not be a great predictor of overall 2018 success. I'll take the under in a low-to-mid 50's nailbiter.

Spread: Florida State (-7.5)

Brian: I've gone back and forth on this for the last two months. I'll start to feel good about Josh Jackson's improvement in his second year, and then I'll remember Florida State's five-stars. I'll begin to get warm and fuzzy over the young talent on defense, and then I'll have nightmares of Cam Akers. There's a small part of me that still believes the Hokies will win the turnover battle, control the time of possession, and eek out a close victory on the road.

But the rest of me says that Taggart's new offense is ready to ball out, and the adrenaline from the opening night crowd propels them to an emotional performance (that very well may rise above their overall results the rest of the way.) There's too much youth and inexperience on Tech's defense, and too many five-stars on the other side. I'll pick FSU, 31-17.

Joey: 7.5 feels high. Don't get me wrong, I think Florida State wins, but you have to love the value in the Virginia Tech pick here.

The key to the game has to be how the Hokies compete on the defensive line. If they manage to draw even (or win) up front, the back 7 is good enough to make this thing interesting. If not? Well, the 'Noles go full 2014 Miami and take the life out of Tech 12-yard run by 12-yard run.

Take the Hokies and the points and pray Charley Wiles delivers yet again.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.