There can be no doubt that Virginia Tech's loss to ODU was flabbergasting, confounding and wildly unexpected — but underneath it all, there are factors that led to this defeat that really aren't all that surprising.
Leave aside Josh Jackson's injury for a moment, as there is plenty more to be written about what his potentially season-ending surgery means for the Hokies. Consider that Tech wasn't really blowing the doors off the Monarchs even before he went out, though you could certainly argue that having the starting QB on the field for the whole game might've led to a different outcome. We can't know.
No, what seems entirely believable to me was that a team was able to abuse an inexperienced Hokies secondary, as part of a defense sorely lacking in veteran leadership. It is of course entirely inconceivable to think that a team as unheralded as ODU would be the one to exploit that weakness, but here we are.
It surely didn't help that Tech was on the road, coming off an unusual bye week and looking ahead to the start of the meat of the year's schedule — you can't have a once-in-a-generation outcome without some sort of perfect storm of weirdness.
But we spent all offseason worrying about the defense, only to cast many of those concerns aside after FSU. Those issues don't just go away, even with a big win (particularly when we've watched the Seminoles cope with all manner of problems in the weeks since).
Hokie fans both can and should be angry at Justin Fuente and company for not preparing the team adequately for the game, just as Frank Beamer deserved the flak he caught after the JMU loss.
Yet Fuente and Bud Foster spent all offseason warning us about the lack of experience on defense. After allowing 631 yards to a team that got blown out by Liberty, it is undeniably clear that they were not wrong to do so.
So You've Suffered a Historically Bad Loss: What Now?
That is of course the question fans are asking Fuente right now, especially after his decision to boot DE Trevon Hill off the team.
As Joe and so many others have noted, one of Beamer's finest achievements in his coaching tenure was his stewardship of the team in 2010 after the JMU loss. We knew coming into the year that the offseason's turmoil would provide Fuente with his toughest test since he successfully managed the transition from Beamer — now Fuente has his own Beamer moment to face down.
As Mike Barber at the Richmond Times-Dispatch so thoroughly chronicles, such a loss is far from a death knell. Even Dwight Vick's 1998 squad managed to rebound from losing to Temple to win four of its final six games.
Danny Coale (a man who did indeed catch that ball) was similarly optimistic in reflecting on 2010 to Barber:
"That season was one of my fondest memories as a Hokie, because of the adversity that we faced, and the way we came together as a unit and as a team when a lot of people doubted us," Coale said.
Like Vick, Coale said coming together as a team, following the coaches and veteran leaders and not getting caught up in the negativity was a key to the turnaround.
"There was just a lot of noise," Coale said. "There's a ton of noise. It's really hard at times to just ignore it. There's a lot of passionate folks. Being able to block out that noise, it's tougher now given social media, tougher in the environment you're in today."
While handling Twitter chatter may be one complicating factor for this year's squad, I wouldn't understate the difference between these two teams in terms of experience level either.
Having Tyrod Taylor leading the offense is a far cry from Jackson — even if he wasn't, perhaps, out for the year — to say nothing of other future stars up and down the roster like David Wilson, Kyle Fuller and James Gayle.
Perhaps we'll someday look back on this roster with the same fondness as we do that 2010 group, but it is undeniable that Taylor was a stabilizing force at quarterback. This team now has a thousand questions to answer at the position, and how Fuente handles the issue will likely tell us a ton about whether the ODU loss will be a springboard or an anchor for this team.
Ryan Willis' Moment
Speaking of which, it's the Ryan Willis show now. Catch the fever!
I'm old enough to remember Willis' strong showing in the spring game setting the message boards ablaze (to say nothing of Hendon Hooker's own strong spring game before that) but there is little doubt that the coaches were hoping he'd prove to be a capable backup and nothing more.
It is, at least, interesting that Fuente felt confident enough in Willis to hand him the starting job right away — his experience as a starter at Kansas surely makes him a more appealing choice to step in on the fly, and he's clearly earned confidence for his fluency with the offense as well.
#Hokies OC Brad Cornelsen said Ryan Willis' mastery of the offense earned him the backup job (ahead of Hendon Hooker) behind Josh Jackson going into the season.— Norm Wood (@normwood) September 25, 2018
That sort of statement isn't all that surprising. This one from Cornelsen, however, left me scratching my head a bit.
#Hokies OC Brad Cornelsen on new starter Ryan Willis: "He's not much different in the skill set than Josh is. ... We've got confidence in him."— Mike Barber (@RTD_MikeBarber) September 25, 2018
I'll take the man at his word, but call me a little bit skeptical that Willis and Jackson are the same sort of quarterback.
In the sense that both are reasonably accurate but aren't slinging the ball down the field, Willis' record at Kansas certainly bears that out.
He managed a 52.1 percent completion percentage in 10 games in his freshman year and a 61.5 percent mark in six games his sophomore season, with 5.5 and 6.9 yards per attempt in those seasons, respectively. Jackson notched a 59.6 percent completion percentage last year, and 7.5 yards per attempt. And, sorry Jayhawks, he was surely working with a bit more talent when he did so.
Where they look really different is in taking care of the ball — Jackson had nine interceptions last year and none through two and a half games this year, compared to Willis' 17 through 16 games — and posing a running threat.
Jackson has never been a prolific runner in the mold of some of his predecessors, but with 124 carries for 324 yards and six scores last year, it's clear he could add a little something to the offense in that respect.
As for Willis? Uh, that'd be 96 carries across his 16 games for a total of -90 yards. If he can run the ball effectively, he hasn't showed it yet, and he didn't exactly get a chance to do so at Kansas.
So, we're left with two different scenarios to ponder: perhaps Willis can indeed be similar to Jackson and keep his seat warm until he returns (even if that's not until next year).
But if Willis really struggles, all kinds of possibilities open up. I can easily envision Willis floundering in these next two games, in particular, opening up a huge decision for Fuente to make if the team falls to 2-3.
Does he stay the course or try to see what he has in Hooker and (yes, I'm finally mentioning him) Quincy Patterson? In the latter's case, the rule change letting freshmen play four games without burning a redshirt year looms particularly large.
If all that happens, then it's impossible to know what the future looks like. It may well be the better long-term course for the team to pursue — I suspect the next few weeks will tell us quite a bit in that regard.
Win Some, Lose Some on Defense
Losing out on Divine Deablo suddenly ahead of the ODU game was surely not the only problem with the secondary, but it also didn't help.
As Foster put it today: "That was big." And, luckily, the safety seems to be healthy once more.
Foster said he anticipates getting safety Divine Deablo back this week after Deablo missed ODU game. Added Khalil Ladler is right fit for #Hokies at nickelback.— Norm Wood (@normwood) September 25, 2018
The coaches haven't said much about why Deablo was out in the first place, so it's difficult to know how much of a concern this will be going forward, but this is at least a positive development in the near term. Considering all the problems in the secondary, the more stability, the better.
The bigger question is what happens at DE now that the Hokies have suffered the perhaps even more impactful loss of Hill.
#Hokies DC Bud Foster said he anticipates starting Emmanuel Belmar still start in Trevon Hill's place Saturday. Tyjuan Garbutt and Zion DeBose will also see more time.— Mike Barber (@RTD_MikeBarber) September 25, 2018
The team's tight-lipped, abrupt handling of Hill's dismissal aside, Foster gets at a huge issue for the rest of Tech's season here.
None of the trio he mentioned in laying out the depth chart have much experience, though all figured to increase their roles as the season progressed.
Houshun Gaines had a really promising start to the year, and it's supremely disappointing that he'll now have to carry the load as the most experienced DE on the roster, instead of forming a powerful tandem with Hill.
But we've also heard a ton about the potential of Garbutt and Debose, in particular, and their ability to step up will be preventing the bottom from falling out on this season. Foster and Charley Wiles have a pretty unimpeachable track record on this sort of thing, but this will really be a test of their considerable skills here.
Oh, and Vinny Mihota: come back any time.
I leave you tonight with a very fun fact indeed from Andy Bitter.
Fun fact: Ryan Willis' dad, Steve, kicked a 2nd qtr FG to start the scoring of Kansas State's matchup with Wisconsin in the 1982 Independence Bowl. It was the first college football game televised live on ESPN, so he scored 1st points in network's cfb broadcast history. #Hokies— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) September 25, 2018
Comments
Willis strikes me as a real student of the game. I think we'll be ok at QB. If he stinks it up then it's time to get the future ready. The defense is the real question especially now that teams have the blueprint to come at us bro.
And I never thought we'd be having a JMU moment this year. Those are tough on the organs.
I've heard he's a real gym rat. Usually first in, last to leave.
Ive heard he's a very cerebral kid, coach's son, with a high football IQ.
A student of the game, a real film junkie.
Deceptively quick.
But does he have all of the intangibles that you look for in a leader?
I heard he can bottle up all his emotions, but he does look like he is ready to break out as long as he doesn't get in over his head.
I think Willis is a much greater threat as a runner based on what I saw Saturday than his previous statistics might indicate. He looked pretty quick to me. I don't see any drop off at all in the running game and possibly an improvement in all honesty.
Yep, good athlete. I think he could be more like Druck running the ball. JJ wasn't fast or powerful.
And I expect RW will get it down the field more.
So... incredibly slow but difficult to bring down? I'm not seeing it.
RW seemed to have a quick first step and decent speed when running the ball a few times last Saturday whereas JJ always seemed to have a slow first step.
He's also faster. I don't understand why people thought JJ was a good runner (ok, I do), but he's not fast and has no agility at all. From a running standpoint this is a net positive. We'll see about the rest.
He's quick enough that if the defense doesn't account for him, he can do some damage though. We saw that before he got hurt last weekend, he took a few of those read options around the edge for 10-15 yards. That's good enough running that it should make the defense honor it, and if they don't, it's enough to move the ball down the field.
FWIW, Willis seems to have a similar running ability. Nothing magical, but enough.
I am good with quick, but does he have the frame to handle the pounding? I'd be really good if he used his quickness like Tyrod did in 2010 to simply extend the play rather than do straight up rushing.
He's not as quick as Tyrod.
Also, Tyrod frequently scrambled, especially early in his career (remember 3rd and 31?)
Yes I do. But Tyrod in 2010 was a much more mature QB who used his scrambling ability to extend plays to let WRs get open rather than put himself in harm's way by tuck and running. That is what I was referring to.
I hope Willis will provide an additional or different wrinkle to the offense. I'm curious to see how he'll look when and if the opposing defense considers the QB more of a running threat in our offense. I feel like most of our notable QB runs on Saturday we're off of ODU biting on the HB during read options rather than JJ or Willis' actual running abilities.
To your point, it will be interesting to see how much of the playbook they open up for him and what they script for his first seres. I hope they let him have a few RPOs if they are right about his game intelligence
Nice article, Alex. Appreciate you bringing some perspective, hope, and expectation setting to the situation.
Indeed, a good article. But, this weekend's game with show if it is genuine hope with a promise or false hope. I want so much to believe this was just a fluke, but from the highlights, it feels like we were fully exposed by a "small child".
ODU just wanted it more, and we didn't care. That needs to change, AMD should have never happened.
I too am an Intel man.
is this what they meant by playing with a chip on their shoulder?
This adds a whole new layer to the 2010 Pro Combat uniforms.
While AMD is unfortunate, it is the leading cause of vision loss in the U.S.,. It could happen to nearly anyone as they age.
Just saying... I'd be ok if this didn't become a 'thing' with our coaching staffs going forward
I don't like your implication that we are going to have multiple coaching staffs going forward...
Unless you're insinuating that either (a) college football ceases to be a thing in the next 25 years, or (b) scientists figure out a way to halt the aging process within that same time span, chances are we'll have another coaching staff at some point.
Yep. Even one of these moments is too many.
I know it was a devastating loss but hopefully the team isn't as wrapped up in it as we are or else things aren't going to bode well for this weekend.
I never thought JJ was a great runner. Sure he had a couple good runs but he always seemed slow to start running like it took him extra effort just to get his body moving forward. His ability to escape the pass rush was horrible.
Hopefully Willis is more akin to some of the "non-running" QBs we've faced we apparently are able to torch us. For some reason I think of Jones from Duke when I think of Willis.
Anyhow it's humpday so hopefully we can move on to Duke and the team is getting ready.
I haven't been this nervous about the defense in years. I don't know if we've been this young across the board ever. We have some serious DL recruiting to do. But we were all happy when DeBose and Garbutt signed with the Hokies. Hopefully they can catch on as quickly as Hill did.
Let's Go!
Was bummed when Quincy didn't play against W&M, but in hindsight that may have worked out for us if he has to play. Since he still has four games in his pocket. If we end up 2-3 (which is possible since we play two good teams) why not use those 4 games. If Jackson is out 6- 8 weeks which is typical for a broken bone things may time up well.
Is it really once in a generation if the last time something like this happened wasn't even a full decade ago.....anyway.
As I see it, there are only two things that are possible now. This team will either come together, or it will quit. I don't think a lot of wins are in the cards for us anymore either way, but coming together will at least see the guys playing hard and giving 100%.
Its not even that... When you factor in Redshirts, I believe this is the first year since that JMU loss that we don't have anyone on the roster who played alongside of someone in their VT career who was on the team when we lost to JMU.
Not quite... A true freshman redshirting in 2010 would have been a senior in 2014, the same season that our current redshirt seniors would have been true freshmen.
But yeah, I think anyone who actually played in the JMU game was gone before anyone currently on the roster arrived on campus.
Kyle Chung's Freshman year was 2013
So we actually haven't had a year like I described... *sigh*
Oof, you're right... Welp.
Not only that, but you only have to go back 20 years for a third example. Averaging one of these losses every decade is not fun.
Maybe once in two generations, then. A college football player generation is 4-5 years.
Question: How much of a concern is it that a single player not playing a position totally crumbled our D? Schematically, that makes no sense. Every player is important, and certainly playing a one gap D like we do highlights why people must play their responsibility properly, but it still worries me that schematically we can't even tolerate a loss of one person in the back field since we'll seem to be completely discombobulated.
Honestly with Adonis, Webb going out like they did the whole season feels like Bud is playing short in the secondary.
Agreed. And with Mook gone and Mihota still hurt, it's almost like we have at least 5 guys "not playing their position". We were able to scrape by against vastly inferior competition missing 4, but the 5th may have really exposed our lack of depth.
That's not an excuse for the ODU loss. I mean if Charlotte could beat them, we should have been able to beat them with WRs playing OL and OL playing WR.
I think you may be taking your new avatar a bit too seriously.
It's very concerning. I'm blown away that Hunter hasn't stepped up and become a main part of the defense. If there was ever a time for him to show some promise, it is now.
He is a true Sophomore no? He also suffered from concussion issues last year so he is still learning some things a 2nd year player is learning.
I'm open to someone who has rewatched (God have mercy on you if you did that to yourself) the game correcting me on this, but Hunter looked kinda lost throughout to me. Obviously he had the big facemask, but even ignoring that, he always seemed to be behind and chasing the play. He's definitely still young, and he'll have time to grow into it, but it wasn't a great start.
Yeah, he looked clueless on a bunch of plays. For Larussa's rushing TD he lost contain when he bit on the dive by the TB. He was completely unblocked and could have made an easy TFL.
I hope we open things up for Willis and give him a chance to sling it. Honestly, after losing to ODU, what do we have to lose? It feels like since Jerod and co. left, the offense has been bland and we get no explosive plays. I'm tired of run, run, quick slant. 3 and out. If it doesn't work out, move on, go young, and build for next year.
A still very real opportunity to win the coastal. That being said I like seeing bombs too. A couple of those Willis deep balls in the spring game were pretty nice.
Great article! This week has been difficult but man, these GIF's of Gritty have gotten me through it. Shoutout to Alum and Nick.
It will be interesting to see how quick of a hook Fuente will have on any QB, if turnovers become an issue. That seemed to be JJ's biggest differentiator.
I watched most of the Duke @ Baylor game, but with only about 60% interest in it, so my attention to detail was not very high. However, it seemed like either a.) Baylor's players are slow, or b.) Duke has some speedy guys. If I am right with any of that, then I am wholly scared for this upcoming weekend. VT, as a whole, looked slow against ODU. Their receivers always seemed a step or two ahead of our defenders, so since our defenders were running their ass off to catch up, they didn't have the opportunity to get a proper PBU.
At one point I seriously thought "Who the hell is this team?". They didn't look anything like the rangy, ball-swarming team that showed up in Tallahassee. I hope whatever DBs VT can actually field Saturday look more like the guys I saw have a field day with FSU.
2010 was a special season. I remember after both the Boise State and JMU games frustrated because I KNEW we were a better team than that. And the player leadership on that team circled the wagons and proved me right.
What scares me is that I simply don't have a feel for this team. Nor the player leadership. I know we've got talent, but 2010's rebound wasn't based upon talent alone. And add that there weren't any player dismissals to contend with - that I can recall. A single one of those is tough for a team to adjust to; and the Hokies have had what, 3 so far this year? In 2010, player and coach leadership refocused a dejected team to reach their season's potential when 90%+ teams facing a similar situation wouldn't be able to do so. I sincerely hope that we have another 2010 bounce back, but I just don't know who the player leaders are that will step up into that motivational void and bring things together. I also don't have a feel for how the locker room culture is handling all the dismissals too. But I will be cheering them on either way,