Halfwits and Wagers Is Already Over the 2018 Season

You know what's not fun? Making jokes after your dumpster fire of a college football team took a fiery dump in the middle of Norfolk in front of a live television audience.

But hey, the terrible gambling must go on, right?

Brian's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 6-17 (3-5)

Joey's Record this Year (+Last Week Only) 13-10 (2-6)

Over/Under: 1.5 Virginia Tech quarterbacks who see playing time

Brian: At some point, we're going to see Hendon Hooker. Tech's going to want to get the jet sweep game going, and Ryan Willis seems about as capable at it as Josh Jackson (read, if the primary word to describe your speed is "sneaky", you're probably not going to be great at the inverted veer). I think if Justin Fuente had his way, he'd save the Hooker package (a name that will NEVER get old) for Notre Dame.

I don't think he gets the chance. I foresee the run game struggling, Willis taking a bunch of sacks, and the offensive staff grasping for straws. They may need Hooker, whether they want to use him or not.

Joey: Old Dominion stole my soul. It's gone. With all hope and promise wiped away from the Hokies' 2018 campaign, my focus now turns solely to gambling.

We start this week with an easy over. Saturday night's quarterback situation is playing out in one of two very distinct ways:

1) All hell breaks loose, former Kansas legend Ryan Willis struggles against fellow football power Duke, and Hendon Hooker has to come in midway through the second half down by 20.
2) Willis plays reasonably well, Bud Foster teaches his secondary how to cover well enough to not get brutally embarrassed for a second straight week, and Hooker's featured for ~5 snaps of QB-run action to keep Duke honest.

Either way, this is an over.

Over/Under: 250 passing yards for Duke

Brian: Daniel Jones is still out, which means Quentin Harris will start for the third week in a row. He's a hard player to understand. Against Baylor Harris went just 12-30 for 174 yards (not good!), but threw a brilliant 66-yard score as the Blue Devils jumped out to an early 23-0 lead (very good!). Then he went 15-27 (bad!) for three scores (good!) against NC Central.

Odds are, no matter how poorly we remember the Hokie secondary playing, they won't give up 250 yards. On the road. To a team playing their backup quarte-(begins sobbing).

I expect Duke to play efficiently, test the young linebackers and defensive ends with a ton of zone read stuff, and attempt to control the game with Harris and their stable of running backs on the ground. Hit me with the under.

Joey: Excluding its 620+ yard thrashing of North Carolina Central last week (and really, what else would you do against an inferior in-state opponent?), Duke's offense has been held in check for much of the year. They're a typical Grandpa Cutcliffe unit — well-schemed, fundamentally sound, and athletically challenged.*

Against a Virginia Tech defense that has, well, problems, I have no clue what to expect. Could Duke turn in a par-for-the-course 200 yard passing performance, rush for a mundane 150, and lose a tight one? Sure. Could the Blue Devils go full Old Dominion on Tech and hang 50, leaving all of Blacksburg hoping for nothing more than a quick and painless death? Absolutely.

So where's the smart play? Probably somewhere in the middle. My (extremely hesitant, fake internet) money's on Duke hovering just below the 250 passing mark, so I'll go under.

*Full transparency, I haven't seen Duke play this year outside of two-minutes of a 40-27 win at Baylor where my (extremely aggressive, quite real) money was on Baylor -4. Can't win 'em all.

True or False: Damon Hazelton will catch a touchdown pass

Brian: Hazelton's fun. He's exciting with the ball in his hands, has provided huge plays the last two weeks, and has scored in each of his first three contests as a Hokie. I'll get over the fourth down drop in Norfolk, because blaming the loss on him would be like blaming the Hindenburg explosion on a passenger's cigarette. It probably wasn't best thing to happen, but the whole thing was a fiery mess before that.

I'm going to say true here, for two reasons. The first was already mentioned, he has three scores in three games. But how about we check out the play-by-play from last Saturday (if you can stomach it). Of Willis' 18 attempts, a whopping nine of them went to Hazelton.That's a lot of targets, meaning there'll be plenty of chances for him to find the end zone.

Joey: For as much as we'll remember Hazelton's play at Old Dominion by a vomit-inducing, upset-clinching drop, the dude had himself a day. 5 catches, 154 yard and a touchdown aren't quite Randy Moss numbers against a middling ODU secondary, but it's abundantly clear that Hazelton is the Hokies' best wideout.

Given that, I'll take the Ball State transfer to extend his touchdown streak to 4 games.

Over/Under 350 Virginia Tech offensive yards

Brian: The Duke defense gives up 333 yards per game, and even with Willis the Hokies are the best competition the Blue Devils have faced yet. So I'm going to pick the over, but not because of a lack of confidence in Cutcliffe's defense.

I'm picking the over because I think Willis is going to be ready to chuck it. In his first game as a starter, since he made the exodus out of Kansas and lead himself to the promise land (and by promise land, I mean literally anywhere other than the Kansas football facility)? The boy's going to want to show off the cannon, and go deep. His proclivity for using his arm strength is going to pay off somewhat, gain a decent chunk of yardage, and make us think for just a brief moment that the events of last week are behind us (at least until the first interception).

Joey: Recognizing that I haven't plugged in the Duke football game tape recently (ever), I'll take French at his word that this Blue Devils' defense is legit. That's not a comforting notion for Ryan Willis, who would no doubt prefer his starting debut come against a lesser, perhaps in-state foe where the Hokies have historically dominated on the recruiting trail.

Either way, Tech's offensive staff knows they'll need to score early and often to support a suddenly reeling Bud Foster defense. Combine that with a backup quarterback mindset that should approach "what's there to lose?", and we may see an aggressive gameplan Saturday night. Will it be enough to rack up 350+ yards against a testy defense?

Probably not, but life's too short to bet the under. Over it is.

Over/Under Virginia Tech total wins: 6

Brian: I'll admit it now. I was a little too in the moment when I wrote this. Like most of you, I was in a bad spot after watching the purge happening live in Norfolk. But I still think this is a fair (if not negative) assessment.

Tech's defense is going to be up and down. It reminds me of a more talented 2014 squad, when one week they'd dominate (a 34-17 win against UNC), and then immediately turn around and surrender 258 rushing yards to Boston College. There'll be moments when they shine. There'll also be moments when Farley and Watts give up 300 passing yards by themselves.

But until proven otherwise, it seems like Willis is going to throw 10 or more interceptions. And if he does that, the defense doesn't have the juice to go get the ball back. I'm going to be optimistic and say the Hokies get to seven wins. I could be wrong.

Joey: This line triggered me. At first, I was insulted by an O/U win total of 6.

Then I looked at the schedule and thought, 'there goes the bowl streak.'

Then I remembered that ECU stole a victory for an extra week of prep against South Florida before proceeding to lose anyways and finally landed squarely on, 'Screw you, ECU'.

Taking a step back from the hot take machine, I'm in the same boat as Brian. This Tech team isn't perfect*. Ugly losses won't be going away. But ugly wins count as wins just the same, and this offense is talented enough to get the Hokies to 7.

*I'm aware that "Tech isn't perfect" is the understatement of the century. That last paragraph should read "Tech stinks, but thankfully UNC, Pitt, Georgia Tech, UVA, and hopefully 1 other school will stink more."

#7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame (-5.5)

Brian: Ah yes, what was once considered the Irish's body blow game before their trip to Blacksburg. The theory, at the time, was that the Cardinal may not win in South Bend, but would beat up Notre Dame so much that they wouldn't have the same pop the next week.

Again, this was before ODU crushed everything we hold dear.

The Irish replaced Brandon Wimbush with a dude who can actually throw the ball (Ian Book) and put up 56 points on Wake Forest (the most they've scored since September 2015). The ideal thing to happen would be for Notre Dame to win, and to come into Blacksburg for a possible night game. Regardless of how well Duke goes, fans would be ecstatic for an unbeaten to come to town, and electric atmosphere could be the bolt of energy the young Hokies need.

Which means Stanford will win straight up.

Joey: This line makes no sense. Yes, I get that Notre Dame is at home, and yes, Ian Book looked serviceable against a mediocre Wake Forest defense, but Stanford catching 5 ½ against the Fighting Irish is way too high regardless of locale.

I don't know that the Cardinal win outright, but after a bit of Pac-12 After Dark magic at Autzen Stadium last weekend, the Stanford moneyline +200 feels like damn good value.

Plus, I'll take David Shaw over Brian Kelly any day of the week. Lock it up.

#4 Ohio State (-4) @ #9 Penn State

Brian: Trace McSorley is the kind of guy that I've underrated his entire career. He's not big, he doesn't have a great arm, he's only mildly athletic, and he has a tendency to force things into coverage. Yet he's also thrown 65 touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season, constantly converts the plays he needs to, and is the best player on a high flying offense. I don't have a single question about Trace McSorley.

I do, however, have a question about the rest of the Nittany Lions.

The scores here don't quite indicate the kind of season they've had.

First there was the 45-38 OT win over Appalachian State at home. The next week, the 51-6 drubbing of Pitt looks like dominance. But how quickly we all forget that it was only 7-6 until the Panthers fumbled at their own 35 with under a minute remaining in the first half. And last week's 63-24 drubbing of Illinois? The Illini actually grabbed a 24-21 lead mid-way through the third quarter, before Penn State ripped off six straight scores.

Slow starts, first half mental errors, all wiped away by a flurry of points at the end. That doesn't fly against (legitimate Heisman candidate) Dwayne Haskins and Ohio State.

Buckeyes -4.

Joey: I'm beginning to get concerned that Brian and I are on the same side of nearly every pick. If that doesn't scream fade everything, you need to stop gambling and see a doctor.

That said, I think Ohio State rolls. Setting aside the Hawaiian demi-god currently doing the devil's work in Tuscaloosa, Dwayne Haskins is a top-tier Heisman candidate that should be taken on Day 1 of the NFL draft next Spring. Pair that with JK Dobbins at tailback and a loaded defense missing just one Bosa brother, and I like the Buckeyes to straight up outclass Penn State. OSU by double digits.

The Joey Coogan Memorial "Navy Hits the Over" Lock of the Week.

Brian: I have no lock. After two weeks of red hot gambling (outside of this column, unfortunately*), I don't have a great feeling about any of these. But do we really feel confident in Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech to not lose by a touchdown against West Virginia this weekend? I very rarely take a road favorite, but it seems like a line that's artificially low after one good outing by the Red Raiders against Oklahoma State. This is still the team that gave up nearly 50 to Ole Miss, and seemingly gives up a long touchdown any time I turn them on. I don't trust Kliff. I don't trust his sunglasses. WVU -3.5.

(*You know what? It's not unfortunate. I like money. And although Joey and I could be considered the definition of degeneracy, we've never put any money on this column.)

Joey: I have a confession to make. For a brief span of about 2 hours early Saturday afternoon, I was beginning to doubt my Navy overs. The triple option hasn't been churning out 75 yard touchdowns at quite the same clip, Ken Niumatalolo's defense actually looks decent for once...it was all getting to be super depressing.

Then the Navy over magic hit.

In the blink of an eye, SMU was scoring touchdowns on special teams, Navy staged a mini-comeback, and each offense was just inept enough down the stretch to keep overtime in play. With regulation knotted at 23 a piece and the morning number dropping to 59.5, I needed two touchdowns in OT to pull out the win.

Navy started with the ball and went vintage Navy, methodically marching the ball down the field with a nine-play, three yards and a cloud of dust scoring drive to take a 30-23 lead. (Mind you, they started on the 25. SMU's 25.)

SMU then tied it up in the bottom half to pull within an extra point, BUT 0-3 SONNY DYKES WASN'T KICKING NO DAMN EXTRA POINTS. Nope, with the total at 59 and my brain ready to explode, SMU went for two from some batshit crazy formation, hilariously converted, and then were forced to pause mid-celebration to endure a ten-minute video review likely called in from Trump himself to investigate a potential illegal formation. With the worst beat of all time flashing before my eyes (penalty nullifies the conversion, pushes SMU back and results in a missed extra point with the total stuck at 59), the refs relented and declared the 2-point conversion good.

31-30 final. Over. Never in doubt.

Navy's off again this week so I'll take Purdue -3 at Nebraska as my lock of the week because Scott Frost looks like he's still lost in the Grand Canyon with Marty Smith.

P.S. I also had Navy -6. Gotta spend money to make money.

Virginia Tech-Duke Over/Under: 50

Brian: This line is very confusing to me. On one hand, you have a Hokie defense that just gave up nearly a half mile of yards against, OLD GODDAMN DOMINION. On the other hand you have David Cutcliffe, an offensive wizard who basically had a practice game against North Carolina Central to prepare for Tech's then-vaunted unit.

And on your third, mutant hand, you have Ryan Willis taking over at QB, knowing that he'll have to put up 30 points to win. And the scary thing? He'll either do it, or throw 5 interceptions. Which would lead to more Duke points.

The over should be my lock of the week.

Joey:: Seriously, this line makes no sense (YEAH, I KNOW I SAY THAT A LOT AND OFTEN LOSE). Broken Tech defense paired with a nothing to lose Tech offense? Pound the over.

Spread: Duke (-4.5)

Brian: I hate this. I don't feel good about it at all. But at the end of the day, I want to put my trust in Fuente to figure things out. Give me Tech +4.5, and if things go wrong you can find me sobbing in a men's bathroom at the Taylor Swift concert in Houston. (Meaning I won't be watching most of the game. Which to be honest is probably the best thing for my general well being.)

Joey: I absolutely hate this pick and know it's irrational, but I'm taking Tech here. If I've learned anything from a lifetime rooting for this god forsaken football team, it's that they always seem to play their best when a) you least expect it; and b) their backs are against the wall.

Wake up Saturday, have a swig (bottle) of Wild Turkey, and forget all about what happened in the 757 last weekend.

Go Hokies.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.