Crazy, crazy day. I love this sport.
I like
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Stanford
7. Missouri
8. Miami
9. Texas Tech
10. Fresno State
Basically after #4 it's a total crapshoot. I'm also assuming everyone that lost in the top 10 drops out of the top 10.
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Whoa Whoa Whoa. No way Clemson just drops completely out. They'll still be in the top ten.
EDIT: Whoa whoa whoa. No way Clemson just doesn't drop completely out. They won't still be in the top ten. I didn't realize just how bad they were.
Gotta disagree. If the game stays close, even 20 or less, I agree. They're getting curb-stomped. I put Clemson around #12 or 13.
Hate to say I told you so buuutttt....just kidding. Clemson is at number 10 but whether they should be or not is certainly debatable.
My drunken uninformed predictions have more power than I anticipated. I need to get black out drunk and predict that VT will win the national championship before the bowls berths are announced.
Yea, there's not really a huge gulf between any of the teams from about 7-15, so to me it's a toss-up. I am still surprised that Clemson stayed in the top-10.
Maybe 9 or 10, but I would be shocked. They're losing by 44 points... at home. Let me just say I wouldn't vote them in the top 10.
JESUS that bad!? I'm not able to watch the game. I was just assuming, but holy schnikies that's turbl.
FSU has 51, the most points ever scored by an opponent at Death Valley. Probably the single worst performance by a Clemson team at home, ever.
I would be shocked though if this doesn't make everyone assume that FSU is too legit to quit. I personally am now assuming that FSU is too legit to quit.
Herbstreit just said it is the best FSU team he's seen since the 2000 NC game.
Good times here in the ACC. Good times.
Is it still Clemsoning if you do it against a top-5 team?
The rule on Clemson clemsoning when it's against a top 5 team:
If Clemson is ranked 5 or higher, yes. If not, no.
Worst performance by a Clemson team at home, ever. Probably when they got beat 37-0 at home in 1998. I got Stith's chinstrap after the game, then he signed it at the Music City Bowl.
No way Clemson is still in the top ten.
I'm willin to put cold hard cash on them droppin outta the top ten.
Hold on, let me go edit my original post to reflect the news that I have since received about how much Clemson sucked.
1. FSU
2. Oregon
3. Alabama
4. tOSU
5.Miami
6. Baylor
7. Missouri
8. Clemson
9. Stanford
10. Texas Tech
Could change based on Oregon vs WSU
1. FSU
2. Bama
3. Oregon
4. tOSU
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. Texas Tech
10. Auburn
Total crapshoot for 9 and 10. TTU wasn't terribly impressive today, but they're still good. Auburn at 10 because looking at the middle of the current rankings I just couldn't figure out who deserved it.
I'm pleasantly surprised with how well my prediction turned out. Not off by more than 2 spots for any of them.
1. FSU
2. Bama
3. Oregon (assuming they hold on)
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. Stanford
8. Miami
9. Texas Tech
10. Clemson
Feel terrible about including Texas Tech and Miami. Neither looks like a top 10 team, but I guess they have to be there until they lose...
Edit: Clemson at #10 instead of Oklahoma
Fresno no way.
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. OSU
5. Baylor
6. Miami
7. Stanford
8. Mizzou
9. Clemson
10. aTm
aTm with 2 losses and above the Auburn team that beat them? Don't think so....
They don't deserve to be 10 but they will be. Auburn simply won't jump from #24 past #15. Plus UGA beat LSU earlier this season and LSU was still ranked higher.
But aTm lost to a 3 loss team. Missouri moved up 10 spots last week after beating a top 15 team in a week where not many teams lost. Auburn just won a big game in a week where 60% of the good teams lost their games.
Auburn is a one loss team...?
Whoops my bad, I was thinking LSU, not aTm.
It's cool. I really just bullshitted aTm at #10 because nobody else really deserves their ranking after about #5. But I do believe the Fighting Manziels will still be above Auburn.
I had a list but I just couldn't finish. I'm astonished at the upsets today has had and I am SO curious to see what the standings look like tomorrow...
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3-10. ??????
...
16ish? VT.
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Ohio State
5. Stanford
6. Missouri
7. Miami
8. Baylor
9. Clemson
10. Texas Tech
If UCLA would have put up another touchdown, I would have put them at 10, but I'm guessing they drop in the 11-13 range.
Pretty close, but they didn't give Stanford the credit I thought they would for beating a top ten team. Although I can agree undefeateds should be higher.
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. tOSU
5. Baylor
6. Stanford
7. Miami
8. Missouri
9.Texas Tech
10. LSU
Posted also in the open thread:
1 Alabama
2 Florida State (yeah, I said it)
3 Oregon
4 Ohio State
5 Missouri
6 Baylor
7 Stanford
8 Miami
9 Texas Tech
10 Oklahoma
etc.
I have Clemson at 11.
I think FSU deserves #2. Why give Oregon the same benefit of the doubt as Bama? They're defending nothing.
1. Bama
2. ORE
3. FSU
4. Muzz
5. Oh st
6. Miami
7. Baylor
8. Texas Tech
9. Stanford
10. Clemson
15. HOKIES!!!!
My Top 14:
1. Bama
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St
5. Stanford
6. Mizz
7. Baylor
8. Clemson
9. UCLA
10. Miami
11. TTech
12. OU
13. VT
14. Auburn
Realistically, Clemson will probably fall out of the top 10 and either LSU or USCe will be ranked over Louisville and Fresno St.
I don't think UCLA changes their ranking after losing this week. They might drop 2 spots or so
If Virginia Tech had a bye weeks for the rest of the year, we'd move up to the top 5 by default ;)
1. Alabama (no way they drop after another convincing shutout)
2. FSU (Winston + their defense = force to be reckoned with)
3. Oregon (only won by 24....reason for worry in Eugene)
4. Ohio St (since I think you are asking for the expected top 10 and not the 10 best teams)
5. Missouri (big jump, but an impressive resume)
6. Stanford (the best 1-loss team right now; their o-line is lights-out)
7. Baylor (this team just keeps dismantling opponents)
8. Miami (see Ohio St.)
9. Texas Tech (see Ohio St.)
10. Auburn (wins vs. Ole Miss and aTm so far)
Clemson's absent since their win vs. UGA is looking less impressive and last night they showed no fight. And, their supposedly much-improved defense wasn't when it mattered.
I see VT as 11-13 and deserving it.
Agree with everything except #10. I think that might be LSU or Fresno.
Why Fresno? I don't see them passing us until we lose.
Fresno was already ranked in front of us.
In Clemson's defense, Georgia has lost just about every player that made that team a top-5 preseason pick, except for their QB.
1. Bama
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. OSU
5. Mizzou
6. Stanford
7. Baylor
8. Thug U
9. Texas Tech
10. Auburn
11. Fresno
12. OU
13. LSU
14. A&M
15. UCLA
16. HOKIES
17. Clemson
My 20 BEST teams at this point of the season based on wins & my takeaways from watching games:
1. Alabama
2. FSU
3. Oregon
----this is where I believe there is a drop-off---
4. Missouri (tough to gauge because the two great wins came over injury riddled Florida & Georgia)
5. Ohio St
6. Stanford
7. Auburn
8. UCLA
9. Wisonsin
10. Miami
11. Baylor
12. VT
13. Clemson
14. LSU
15. Oklahoma
16. aTm
17. USC
18. Louisville
19. Texas Tech
20. Nebraska
*I don't believe for a second that this week's polls will reflect this
What is great about the college football season is that every one of these teams will get their shot to impress and either move up/down at some point over the remainder of the year. Should be fun to watch.
I'm not good at those kinds of predictions because I hate some schools too much. But we're gonna be anywhere from 11 to 13 I think. Could be an interesting few weeks if the top 10 keeps getting shaken up.
1) Alabama, until proven otherwise. Rolling Arkansas like they did was impressive, even though Arkansas is a dumpster fire at the moment. Bielema's face on the sideline was, "Oh hell what I have gotten myself into". Alex Collins's mom is thinking, "Alex, I told you go to to Miami!"
2) FSU. Rolled over a previously highly-touted Clemson. Clemsoning only happens against bad teams or after a fast downward spiral. This may be starting now. They've looked impressive every week, and they're balanced, too, with a really good defense.
3) Oregon. I hate to put them here. They have only beaten Washington, who got pummeled by AZState yesterday. They have an impressive offense, but haven't beaten anyone of note yet. Tennessee is their best win so far.
4) Missouri. Don't look now, but they've beaten UGA and Florida, two teams with way more talent (but also with injuries), but also Vandy, who also beat UGA. Jarius Jamar Javarious Lamar! And their backup QB is pretty good. They don't play Alabama, LSU, or Ole Miss this year.
5) Miami. The U can put up points in bunches, and has maybe the best RB tandem in the county in Duke Johnson and Dallas Crawford. Their defense isn't dominant, but does just enough, with a little swagger. If Stephen Morris can remember which color jersey his team wears, their offense will put up points like...
6) Baylor! This team is Oregon-esqe. No one knows how they'll respond to a team with a defense. They play Kansas next week so their season doesn't start until Thursday, Nov 7 against Oklahoma.
7) Ohio State. They should probably be 6, because Baylor hasn't played anyone, either, but their brand is keeping them ranked higher than everyone. I don't think we'll ever know how good these guys are until they play, undefeated, in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan aren't good, and that's the meat of their schedule this year.
8) Stanford. Best 1-loss team in the country. How they lost to Utah, I'll never know, because it was on the PAC12 network. But I feel like the wheels are coming off a little for this program. The team is fine, but over the next season or two they'll come back down to just-above-mediocrity.
9-? ) #all-the-one-loss-teams-plus-Texas-Tech-and-a-few-two-loss-teams. Auburn. UCLA. Clemson. Fresno. NIU. OK. TT. VT. OKSt. Louisville. LSU. ATM. Others...
Everyone I actually gave a place to was a team I've seen, except Baylor. I haven't seen them play, but their scorelines are real impressive.
If it actually plays out that FSU is #2, even given the impressive win, I can already hear the "east coast bias" remarks.
When Oregon beats a "Clemson-esque" pac12 team in a dominant fashion similar that FSU stomping then I'll suggest otherwise, but FSU belongs at #2 at the moment. Also, Horse, I agree with you on most of your top ten, but I don't think you're giving Wisconsin enough credit when looking at OSU's light (that I do agree on) schedule. And I have Miami & Baylor lower but they may rocket up in the next couple weeks once they're tested so they'll have that chance soon.
There are a few teams that I intentionally give little credit to, and one of them is Wisconsin. They're just bigger and stronger than most teams, an identity that they've solidified over a long period of time.
But Wisconsin has match up problems. If they play against another team with similar size, they're in for a game. If they play against someone with similar size and a lot more speed/talent (pretty much the entire SEC, talented B12 teams, OSU, Mich, PSU, Neb, Oregon, USCw, FSU, Clemson, Miami, Stanford), they have problems because their OL can't push around the DL and their skill players aren't fast enough to break away from anyone. Their loss to OSU was highly predictable because of this.
In general, they're the archetype of big, slow Big Ten teams. You're right that they're a team that will win a lot of games, but they'll do it against other teams who can't match up with size or don't have enough speed to overcome it. Throw in the fact that quarterbacking is an afterthought for their team (they've never successfully recruited or developed a quarterback talent), and I give them little credit for what they accomplish.
Wisconsin is #3 on my list of intentional less credit, behind Ohio St and Mich. Top 3 all definitely from B1G though.
1. FSU
2. Oregon
3. Bama
4. OSU
5. Miami
6. Baylor
7. Mizzou
8. Stanford
9. Clemson
10. UCLA
Not so fast my friends, aren't we the best one loss team in the nation?!!!!! I do declare, I say I say ain't that right boy?
Probably 2nd, after Stanford
1. Ala
2. Ore
3. Fsu
4. Osu
5. Miami
6. Baylor
7. Stanford
8. Mizzou
9. TT
10. Fresno
I don't see fsu jumping Oregon quite yet, I think they'll hold steady until/if they lose one. That and Clemsons win over uga is looking less impressive every week.
Also I don't think we'll jump up too much in the polls, all those teams in the top ten that list will probably end up in the 13-19 spots.
Clemson's strength of schedule is looking worse every week the UGA loses, but the win over UGA was a great win. They hadn't suffered any injuries yet, which is absolutely killing them.
I've seen the BCS computer average this morning..the Hokies are rated 11.6667 which isn't bad at all.
1. Alabama (Until proven otherwise)
2. Oregon (Until they beat Bama or Bama falls)
3. FSU (Impressive win)
4. Ohio State (Not sold on them... but who else?)
5. Baylor (until proven otherwise that they can't put up massive numbers)
6. Stanford
7. Missouri (Not sold on them either... but even with their back up they keep winning)
8. Texas A&M
9. LSU
10. Clemson
** I'd like to make some of those SEC teams drop further ---> I do believe the SEC is overrated but they're starting to look like the ACC did a few years ago. Lots of parity. The only difference is that they have Alabama. Until proven otherwise I won't move them from #1 **
**Also, I'd hesitate moving VT any higher than #19. Our defense is nasty. Our offense? uhhhhh. Logan Thomas has shown improvement, true. But without a running game more talented teams can plan to not only stop our non-existent running game but they can also bait him into making some errors. Against other teams not named Western Carolina, our highest was 29 pts against Marshal in triple OT. This year has been a major improvement... but we haven't arrived YET.
Passing - 82nd
Rushing - 106th
Scoring - 96th
You complain about our nasty defense, but then make remarks about a very questionable offense. With that in mind, what exactly is your reasoning to have aTm at 8th? They have a top 5 offense, but their defense is ranked 120th in total yards, and 104 in scoring defense, which is overall worse than our own offensive ranks. And really other than Alabama, they haven't played any great offenses.
TA&M is #3 in total offense and put up big points against Bama, #5 in total defense. VT is #2 in total defense, but we've only played the #35 offense in Alabama and #41 Marshall.
I'm a big believer that you judge a team on what they have done, not what they could do. So while I agree with your argument, A&M's offense (at this point in the season) appears to be more effective (or at least more proven) than our defense.
All stats from USA Today:
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-total-d...
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-total-o...
Okay but look at the other side of the coin. Our offense has played the #5, #10, #13, #20, #44, and #107 defenses for an average rank of 33.
Texas A&M's defense has played the #19, #35, #43, #46,#75, and #98 ranked offense for an average of 52.6.
Based on those rankings, our offense has performed better against higher level competition than their defense has against worse competition.
On top of that, A&M's offense has played the #67, #5, #87, #56, #64, and #90 ranked defenses for an average of 61.5.
Our Defense has played the #35, #41, #45, #55, #70, and #93 ranked offenses for an average rank of 56.5
Based on those averages, our defense has played higher level competition than their offense, and has better results. Our weakest unit, offense, has also played significantly better defenses and ranks higher than their their defense.
A&M is overhyped based solely on three players. Joeckel, Evans, and Manziel. Those three are all extremely good players and would likely give us problems, but as a whole the body of work for Texas A&M does not support the constant bias of putting them ahead of us, even with two losses.
Stats from cfbstats.com
All of these numbers that are compiled for a team, in my opinion, should rule out the opponent in question. For the VT vs. ATM numbers, for example:
ATM's opponents' defenses are rated including ATM's numbers, which, on offense, are pretty good. I think we should remove the game played against ATM to get a better feel for how the defenses performed against teams not named ATM. Same goes for the defense. If those teams hadn't played ATM, or if their games against ATM weren't counted in the numbers, how would they be ranked? Since ATM doesn't have much of a defense to speak of, I'd think their offensive rankings would be worse.
VT has a great defense and a work-in-process offense. If the teams we played hadn't had our offensive number to - ahem - improve their defensive statistics, how would they fare? If teams hadn't played against our defense, where would their offenses be ranked?
I've seen the rankings for an offense/defense cited many times, and, to be honest, I think the best gauge of a team's unit's performance against another team's opposing unit are most accurate before they play because there has been no effect on their statistics/rankings based on the opponent in question. After they play, the effect of their in-game performance is always taken into account.
Having said that, I like the points you make and the research you did. Turkey leg.
Well yes obviously that would be the ideal case. The lack of offensive production by our offense has helped out other defenses ratings. But the issue is that the stats are 100x more difficult to compile. Unfortunately, I'm not ESPN stats and Info, and everything would need to be compiled by hand. It's something for the offseason, but I don't think it's something you can do week to week without needing 3+ hours which I do not have. I took about 15 minutes to look all those numbers up, and I figured it would get the general point across that aTm really has not proven anything more than VT has. In fact, they appear to be less proven than the Hokies.
I wish there was a game by game database of all the college football stats so I could just write queries and automate calculations. Life would be great, no?
Well, I don't think you need a good offense if your opp cannot score enough to win..
I wish the polls would go ahead and come out!
Maybe ESPN didn't like the outcome, so they're forcing a re-vote.
Coaches poll out. Bama Ore FSU tOSU Baylor is your top 5. We're at 19
Uva is #1 on the Derp Poll
I know this isnt what this is about but I would think that an Oregon vs. Baylor game would be amazing!!!!
Anyway my top 10 (according to who actually plays good most weeks):
1.Florida State yes I'm done with the Bama bias is they played today Bama would lose
2.Bama because they have to be somewhere
3.Oregon still put up points but have been having some close games lately.
4.Baylor now I know that OSU has been good but so has Baylor and neither has played anyone
5.OSU goes here because they still are undefeated still not impressed by them however
6.Mizzou surprising that they are playing pretty well they are the most likely team to fall in my opinion
7.Stanford the only other game on there schedule that could be a loss is Oregon #studteam
8.Auburn playing well the game against Bama will be good!
9.Texas Tech probably going to lose at some point
10. Clemson even after the game getting destroyed by FSU they still don't fall too much