First off, yes Florida State is really good. We know that. But after reading so much on this site as well as others about the strength of the ACC this season, I looked further in depth at FSU's success against teams outside the conference, and who FSU's opponents have played outside of the ACC. For example, the Clemson smashing is obviously the most impressive win on the Seminoles' schedule right now. But who was Clemson's most impressive win over? A 4-3 Georgia team by 3 points. While Georgia has good wins as well, they have 3 losses. I took this approach to all of FSU's opponents to date.
Pittsburgh (4-2) Lost to FSU 41-13. Best out of conference win is a 49-27 victory over a 2-5 New Mexico team. Pitt also squeaked by Duke (58-55) and only beat Old Dominion by 11.
Nevada (3-4) Lost to FSU 62-7. Best win is over 1-6 Air Force.
Bethune-Cookman (6-1) Lost to FSU 54-6. Bethune-Cookman is an FBS team whose best win is over FIU.
Boston College (3-3) Lost to FSU 48-34. Best out of conference win is against Army, who is 3-5. BC also got shmacked by Southern Cal 35-7.
Maryland (5-2) Lost to FSU 63-0. Maryland did blank WVU 37-0, but also only beat a winless UConn team by just 11. Also, in conference, they of course beat UVA by just one point.
Clemson (6-1) Lost to FSU 51-14. Best out of conference win is over 4-3 Georgia, 38-35. Also just beat Boston College by 10 at home.
I am by no means saying FSU is not a top 10 team, or that Clemson isn't either. I'm simply stacking up FSU's overall performance against non-ACC teams to see if they legitimately could be better than Alabama, Oregon, or even Ohio State. The biggest factor in FSU's favor is their margin of victory in almost every game. But the teams that they have beaten, and the teams that their opponents have beaten, are not as strong as one might think. So even though their stomping of Clemson was downright impressive, I had to question how good that Clemson team was, then did the same with Pitt, BC, etc.
All of that said, I think FSU is a top 5 team, but the talk of them being ranked #1 is a little premature until they have success outside the ACC, and against other teams who have also had success outside the ACC.
Comments
You make some good points, but just wanted to point out that Clemson's win over UGA was against a team that had all of it's playmakers healthy and was firing on all cylinders. They were pretty banged up in the other losses.
I agree, they've especially lost offensive firepower due to injuries since then. But they did lose to Vanderbilt, a team they should still beat.
Agreed. Like you said, the FSU strength of schedule isn't all that ridiculous but the computers still have them #1. They're still putting up a ridiculous amount of points on FBS opponents from AQ conferences and that usually gets the computers on your side (Side note and contradiction: not complaining, but don't understand how we average 8th from the computers).
Scratch that... only AQ conference would be the ACC. Hooked on Phonics didn't work for me.
This. A healthy UGA isn't 4-3 right now. Had they been healthy, they would have beaten Vandy and Mizzou, but that's what happens in sports. Injuries hurt a team and can affect the outcome. It's unfortunate since they were a good team because it marginalizes Clemson's win. Much like our win over UNC is marginalized by their 1-6 record.
Possibly. But they still have Richt as HC. They find a way to puke up an easy win every year, and with the $EC bias, their loss is forgiven. I'm sick and tired of the crappy Jorgia bias and ranking them high every year. They are not back. They will not be back. They will not compete in the $EC. They are no better than a 10-4 team every year. Other than 2002, you have to go back to 1983 to find a year they had only 1 loss. Even then, it was paired with a tie.
Not discounting this team was stacked...but hey, LOLUVa also recruits well every year.
Not saying that there isn't some heavy SEC bias going on, but UGA had reason to be highly ranked after how they ended last year. They could have (and some might argue should have) beaten Alabama and been in the title game, but 12-2 in the SEC is pretty damn good. The problem is the turnover on defense. On offense, they had a solid team as I firmly believe that Aaron Murray is the best QB in the SEC. I would say the order of top SEC Quarterbacks is Murray, Mettenberger, Manziel, McCarron, Shaw, Franklin. That's just from a purely QB standpoint, nothow important they are to their team's success.
Since 2008, Jorgia has fallen lower from the preseason ranks to the final ranks every year except last year, in which instance they improve by 2 spots. This year, they were 5th preseason, and are now unranked. '11, -1 place. '10, -4 places. '09, -13 places. '08, -11 places. They are annually overrated in the polls.
This also goes along with my wish that they would not present rankings until after 5 or 6 games. There is way too much hype at the beginning of the year, and the pollsters feel obligated to prove themselves right by keeping teams ranked higher/longer than they should be.
Not saying we're any better....just speaking to Jorgia.
-11, -9, -13, -8, -3, +1, -1, -2, +1, +16, -18, -2, -10 since 2001.
http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/all-teams.html
I always felt like UGA had a pourous defense though. They just had enough offense power to keep them in the game (in a weird sense the opposite of us) Call me crazy but I think Georgia came into the year overrated.
They lost something like 9 starters on defense with several leaving early. Their defense was suspect from the beginning and it's led to their undoing.
Agreed, this is a strong point. UGA with its players is better than the current UGA. The team that lost to Clemson and beat LSU is in the past, and they'll need more than a jigawatt to get back there.
FSU beat PITT but a much wider margin than we did. If our offense was on track, wow what a team VT would be.
This is pretty interesting to look at. You could be on to something here.
But I think the argument could also be made that you could do this for any team. It's kinda like that website that can prove Our Lady of Lords Seminary beat Alabama by the transitive property. Your basically analyzing your competition's competition and does that really give a fair indication of how good the team is?
Do you see what I'm trying to say cause I feel like I'm just making things more confusing.
Yeah transitive property does apply here a little bit. I just wanted to see thee ACC's top team and see how good it looked against non-ACC teams.
Isn't that something like what all the poll voters and computer polls do? They make some sort of analysis using strength of schedule and some stats thrown in to create a ranking.
Poll voters see 'SEC', 'Miami', and 'Florida State' so they vote higher for those.
Yes Florida State really is that good. They have shown that they are not immune to come out flat, but just in terms of pure talent and ability to win football games they are second only to Alabama.
I know I should be happy with our W's, but man I wish our offense could put teams away like this. Any team...
FSU is that good IMO. I will like to see how they do against Miami if Miami shows up but the U must get by a surging WF team (I guess) first. If FSU blows Miami out and potentially Fla (who Miami beat) that should further certify that they are for real. I'm hoping the Hokies get a shot at them in the ACC CG though.
I think FSU is at least the third best team in the country and more talented then Virginia Tech... but not unbelievably so. If we face them in the ACCCG, I think we have a good shot at beating them.
2000, Never Forgive.
And who has ohio st beaten? Feel free to use any wins this year or last.
In fact, who has Missouri or Oregon beaten this year? Teams that are no longer even ranked other than Washington.
Oregon beat UVA, the team that leads the nation in 3rd down defense.
Not arguing too much with you here, but example:
Oregon demolished Tennessee, a team that just recently beat then-#11 South Carolina.
you can do this analysis every year with any B1G team. FSU would smash Ohio State.
Long story short, FSU really is that good. Anyone can be taken to the wire by a properly motivated team, but this FSU team will probably shred most of the teams they play the rest of the year.
BEAT DUKE.