This could be the most interesting CFP debate we've seen since it started.
There are 7 teams with 0 or 1 loss:
-Alabama (12-0)
-Clemson (12-0)
-Notre Dame (12-0)
-Georgia (11-1)
-Oklahoma (11-1)
-Ohio State (11-1)
-UCF (11-0)
UCF is probably a non-starter, unless there are a lot of crazy losses next weekend. Even so, their QB got taken out with a nasty injury on Friday.
I figure Notre Dame and Alabama are locked in. ND is done with their schedule, and Alabama is Alabama. Even a loss next weekend wouldn't drop them out of the top four.
Clemson will be in with a win against Pitt. They might be safe with a loss, but it would depend on how the other games go.
Georgia should be in if they beat Alabama, because they would have the most impressive win on their resume. Of course, in this scenario, Alabama would still be in the top four.
I think Ohio State is the longest shot for making the CFP, as they have the worst loss of the bunch (to Purdue). At least Oklahoma is getting a rematch against the team that beat them.
If the championship games go as expected (the teams above except Georgia win), then I think the four will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma. If Georgia beats Alabama, they would replace Oklahoma.
Comments
Notre Dame is going to get throttled either by Clemson or Alabama if they play one or the other.
Also, not playing an extra game (championship) should, but won't, factor into them getting in. The CFP is not a playoff at all, but it's what we have to live with!
It absolutely factors in. If they had lost to USC they would almost certainly have been out. Instead they went undefeated against a P5 schedule. Just because something wasn't a deciding factor doesn't mean it wasnt a factor
To be fair, Notre Dame's 13th game should be against a team the likes of the Citadel, Furman, or Austin Peay.*
*(Actual opponents on the schedules of the other top 4 teams.)
Well, obviously ND is in. /s
Their name is Notre Dame after all.
Bama
Clemson
ND
Ohio St
At the 4 spot, OSU has a more complete team and better wins. Watching Oklahoma vs WVU was almost boring from all the scoring as strange as that sounds. If a drive went 5 plays, that was a long possession. The crowd couldn't even get into it.
Agree if UGA beats Bama in SEC Title game then they slide into #4.
Ohio state was stomped by an average Purdue team and almost lost in OT to a mediocre Maryland. Oklahoma lost in OT to a very competitive Top 15 Texas team.
If both teams win there is absolutely no discussion about Ohio's St deserving to go ahead of Oklahoma. Worse SOR, worse loss, worse confrence championship match. The fact that this is even a discussion fires me up!
If Ohio State has a better resume but looks worse they get in because of the resume. If Ohio State has a worse resume but passes the eye test they get in because they're "one of the best 4 teams." This is one of very few clear and defined criteria the committee has set over the last 5 years - they will bend over backwards for Ohio State no matter the logic.
always the conspiracy theorist
That theory would hold more water if Ohio State had been to more than just 2 out of 4 Playoffs.
The only criterion that the committee has clearly defined through four years is number of losses.
EDIT - Looks like ESPN pulled that post. Some context here:
http://www.oudaily.com/sports/ou-football-espn-deletes-tweet-comparing-o...
Texas lost to Maryland. Oklahoma's only good win is a top 20 WVU team in a 59-56 display of thee two worst defenses of any ranked teams. Ohio St beat Michigan, Penn St, and Northwestern. The Purdue loss makes it very close because that was an awful loss.
It's a coin flip to me. I think OSU is the more complete team but I'd be fine with Boomer Sooner in the CFP.
Chalk gets us Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame/Oklahoma depending on if the committee jumps OU over ND for having a championship game win over the team that beat them. Although OU's trash defense could keep them at 4. Clemson is probably in at 4 if they lose.
A Georgia win is probably the most chaotic thing that could happen.
I think a Pitt win would be the most chaotic thing.
Most chaotic thing would be:
Georgia over Alabama
Pitt over Clemson
UCF over Memphis
Texas over Oklahoma
Northwestern over Ohio State
Washington over Utah
Georgia and Notre Dame would definitely be in, as would most likely Alabama since all of your other conference champions would have 2 or more losses except for UCF. That's where the questions come up for 4th:
Would UCF finally get a nod at 12-0 and 25-0 the last two seasons? (AP #7 / current CFP #9)
Could Clemson still sneak in at 12-1 if the game against Pitt is close?
What about Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and Washington? They're all currently AP top-10. Would the committee find ways to justify any of Oklahoma, anOSU and Michigan over both Clemson and UCF despite two of the three losing their conference title game and the third not even playing?
As for Texas and Washington, certainly the Big 12 and Pac 12 would try to make claims of their teams being worthy inclusions because of winning their conference championship games despite Washington having two losses and Texas three.
Leaving out two and possibly three P5 conferences may very well necessitate a change to an 8 or even (ideally and finally NCAA sanctioned?) 16-team tournament.
In that situation, we have these teams with these records:
Notre Dame 12-0
Georgia 12-1
Alabama 12-1
Clemson 12-1
UCF 12-0
Ohio State 11-2
Oklahoma 11-2
Texas 10-3
Michigan 10-2
Washington 10-3
Again, we're left with only four P5 teams with 1 loss or fewer, so Notre Dame, Georgia, Alabama, and Clemson would go to the semi-finals. Now, take the same scenario but have Alabama beat Georgia, and suddenly the 2-loss teams are put into play.
Therefore, the scenario to encourage the most chaos would be:
Georgia over Alabama (both teams 12-1)
Pitt over Clemson (Clemson 12-1)
Oklahoma over Texas (Oklahoma 12-1)
Ohio State over Northwestern (Ohio State 12-1)
That's 5 teams with only one loss, plus undefeated Notre Dame (and UCF).
Remember when the introduction of the CFP was going to eliminate the beauty contest?
Move it to 8 teams with auto bids for the 5 power Champs, the highest ranked G5 and 2 at large and the have at it. UCF is going to go 2 years without losing a game and the committee spent this week patting themselves on the back for including them in the Top 10. Just shows there is little hope of winning a title if you're not a part of the chosen crowd, and it just feels like this sport just keeps humping the same beauty contest doorknob while calling it something different.
I think that creates as many problems as it solves. It is always going to be a subjective process. Under the current system there is debate around the 4 spot usually involving 2-3 teams. Under your proposed system, the debate with be even tougher/more subjective for the 2 at large bids because that will involve 4-7 teams.
I don't think UCF deserves a shot regardless of their win streak because there are only 1-2 decent wins between the two seasons. Including the top G5 team only seems debatable now because UCF is on a crazy win streak. In normal years would you really want a 9-2 Temple in the playoff?
As a VT fan, 8 is attractive because it gives us a better shot. I've also heard the argument that it might help level the playing field in recruiting because the top recruits wouldn't feel like they had to go to Bama, UGA, Clemson, OK, OSU to have a chance at playing in the playoffs. I would be happy with 8 for these reasons but I don't think it would be a better system.
Including all the P-5 conference champions isn't subjective.
Selecting 2 at large bids is subjective.
Selecting all P5 champs is objective in the sense that there is no debate as to who won their conference. It is somewhat irrelevant when it comes to determine the best teams. I want a system geared towards putting the best teams in the CFP. That seems most aligned with the goal of determining the national champion.
Using the division champions of the P-5 is irrelevant? It's clear-cut, fair, and one of those is arguably the best team, particularly when supplemented with three at-large picks to arrive at an eight team playoff.
Sure, those three at-large picks are subjective, but not more than making ALL the playoff picks subjective.
You think that if Pitt, Utah, and Northwestern win this week that the playoff result will be fair? Is a 1-loss Bama being left out for Pitt fair?
That would create a playoff that is equally irrelevant and unfair. The top 4 are technically subjective but there is usually consensus for the top 3 and some debate over #4.
Yes, I think it would be fair, and like I said the three at-large picks somewhat address that.
I think you are conflating clear with fair but let's agree to disagree. Leg for good discussion.
I think it's both more fair and clear than making it a pure beauty contest, which heavily favors the same teams, year-in and year-out. We certainly don't pick conference champions by vote, we let the teams who have won play in the championship. You had a bad day? Too bad. Every game counts.
But it's certainly worthy of debate, which we will get every year for any spots that are a committee selection.
Every game doesn't count if 7-5 Pitt beats Clemson. Only one game counts. To say that selecting 10-1 Georgia over potential Big10 Champion 8-5 Northwestern is purely due to "beauty" and not the fact that UGA is clearly better than Northwestern is clearly flawed and in no way fair. I love Cinderella stories much as the next guy but replacing an imperfect meritocracy with a more imperfect equity of outcome based system that potentially rewards bad teams is the very definition of unfair.
Again, how would that ever happen if there were three at-large bids? In your scenario, Georgia and Clemson would be in.
UCF is still left out. 3 at large will go to ND, Clemson, UGA. Especially if UGA beats Bama.
Or (I admit this is highly unlikely)
Wins by:
UGA
Pitt
Northwestern
Utah
Texas
I'm open to expanding the playoff to 8 but I dont think winning your conference or G5 should be an automatic bid.
The non playoff big bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar) are to reward conference champs. The CFP are for the best teams.
Except that literally every true playoff grants automatic bids to conference or division winners. There is literally no valid argument to be made that FBS football is somehow special or unique and needs a different way to run their playoffs.
...Except I made an argument below about how college football is extremely unique and very different from professional sports leagues.
I think the fairness argument loses some momentum when you consider that almost every other sport at every level makes winning your conference/division the immediate goal when a season begins and awards teams thusly. Nobody is shedding a tear over whether a 7-9 team in the NFL upsets a team with a better record because one won their division and the other didn't.
Alabama is a great recent example. Not once, but twice they played for the title and didn't even win their division, let alone conference. You call that fair to other teams that did?
Yes in fact that's a great example of how fair the system is. Bama proved to be the best team and the national champion despite not winning the conference. They beat the conference champion in the title game and Auburn lost to UCF in the Sugar bowl.
The fact that Alabama won does not mean the decision itself was fair. In the first instance, the CFP did not exist so not sure how you can use that as evidence for your argument.
You seem to be creating a definition for the word to suit whatever outcome it is that you support.
I see no way one could argue that a team that does not even win their own division can automatically be assumed to be "the best" and included in the playoff. If the argument is that they looked the best, then the CFP is not a playoff, it's just an expanded beauty contest.
It was fair both times. The stated goal of the CFP is to put the best 4 teams in. It is NOT to put conference champions in. In 2017 they accomplished this goal by rightfully putting Alabama in, who dominated Clemson who had won a very easy ACC (more on this later), and beat SEC champion Georgia on neutral fields. In 2011, Alabama and LSU were clearly the best two teams in the country and a quick glance at their schedules/results makes that abundantly clear. That said, Alabama only made it because Oklahoma State, who would have got their shit kicked in by LSU, lost to a terrible Iowa State team late in the year and Alabama jumped them, giving us the two best teams in college football in the NCG. Did it suck for LSU? Sure, but did they put the best two teams in the CG? Yes.
The reason autobids from divisions and conferences work in PROFESSIONAL sports is that every professional league, the NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. is comprised of franchises/teams with a singular goal of making money by playing THAT sport. That is the sole commitment of every organization within each of those leagues.
College football is very different. For starters, these teams are part of larger organizations whose primary goal is education. Those schools have athletic departments and alumni who care about different sports. There are 130ish FBS football teams. Those teams are divided down into very unequal conferences. Our conference, for example, is primarily concerned with being a great basketball conference and the size of our stadiums, alumni donations, and commitment to football across the conference varies greatly from the SEC where the situation is quite the opposite. The conferences do not have teams operating with identical goals and singular focuses on one sport like their professional counterparts. Autobids would just reward teams from weak conferences and make no mistake, the conferences are not remotely equal.
The goal of the college football playoff is to select a national champion, not to reward the best four teams.
In an eight team playoff, every P-5 team gets not one, but TWO chances to make the cut. Their conference championship and an at large bid. If you miss BOTH of those, you weren't the best team. Every G-5 team also gets two chances: best of the G-5 overall, or an at large bid.
So far, I haven't seen a scenario presented where the best team gets left out of a chance at the national championship in an eight team playoff.
The one argument with some validity is that because it forces more games, then a team that isn't as deep would have lesser of a chance of winning. But they have NO chance of winning if they aren't admitted to the playoffs to begin with.
Folks, we've been over this debate hundreds of times, and like any other debate on the internet, no one is changing their minds.
If you want to have that debate, that's awesome, but maybe move that into a separate thread dedicated to that. In this thread, we're debating which of the six or seven eligible teams will get selected for the four team system that currently exists.
The likelihood of that ever happening makes that situation completely irrelevant.
It's absolutely fair. The conference championship games become a de facto first round of the playoffs. Win and you're in.
And then the at-large spots leave a door open for great teams that lose their division to another excellent team (like an 11-1 Alabama that lost to a 12-0 Auburn, or a 11-1 Miami that lost to a 12-0 Virginia Tech) during the regular season.
I would be fine with subjectivity revolving around the at large bids while there is a clear, objective path to making the playoffs for P5 champions. That way, every P5 team at the beginning of the year knows what they need to do in order to make it. If you can't do that or you drop a game and miss your championship, hope that you have scheduled well enough to have a resume worthy of consideration for an at large spot.
I agree that simplifies the decision and removes one kind of subjectivity from the discussion. It fails the goal of rewarding the best teams and determining the national champ. Should an 8-5 Pittsburg team be in the CFP over Clemson or Michigan? Like I said, it creates as many problems as it solves.
in the scenario you are describing, clemson would still make it as an at large, as would michigan likely
You forgot ND
you're right, problem was solved when ND beat michigan already... i am fine with P5 championship game winners getting in because there is defined criteria. it's not perfect but i think it's an improvement. i feel like the current system has moving goal posts and no way for a G5 team to get in, which are major flaws to me.
I understand that. To be clear to you, Key, and Alum, I don't think this a a bad or even an unreasonable position to have and I wouldn't be upset if it came about. I just think within the goal of determining who the national champion should be, this is slightly worse than the current system.
Yes, I believe that the three at-large picks address that issue.
That's better than auto for G5 and 2 at-large bids.
I have no interest in a playoff that lets 3, 4, and 5 loss teams have a chance at a national title. One of my favorite things about CFB is that this can't happen. Nothing devalues the regular season more than the chance for 7-5 Pitt to make it if Clemson happens to have a bad game and fumble a lot.
IMO the goal should not be to reward the "best" teams it should be to reward the teams who actually win season-long contests like division and conference titles. Then if there's some leftover spots those teams that are the "best" but couldn't win their own conference could land a wild-card bid.
Part of the reason that talent gets so concentrated in college football is that the bowl system and the current CFP are self-feeding for the top programs and limit access to championship opportunities to other teams (helps recruiting at top programs). Pittsburgh or Northwestern or Washington State should be able to grind out a division win, and then have the opportunity to survive and advance like any other NCAA playoff team.
if you don't want subjectivity, bring back a modified version of BCS computers and expand to 8
UCF beat Memphis by one earlier in the year with Milton. They have a very strong chance of losing to them next week without him.
And if they beat Memphis, they're still going to be held out, and the claim will be for the injury, but we all know they never really stood a chance to begin with. That being said, the Eagles ran through the 2017 NFL season with MVP candidate Carson Wentz at QB, but then he blew out his ACL and they still won the Super Bowl anyway with Nick Foles. If they were a college football program, they wouldn't have even been invited to the playoff because some arbitrary bullshit reasoning about how the rest of the team didn't deserve it because the QB got hurt.
Fuck all that noise. I'm tired of this subjective horseshit. College football isn't some special snowflake that needs to be protected at all costs. Give everyone a shot at the title or come clean that its set up for a small subset of about 15 teams to claim it every year. At least then the 110 other FBS schools can know to invest their money elsewhere.
OSU 2014 is evidence counter to your claim. They were on their 3rd string qb and still made the playoff. It's clear you think UCF deserves to be in this year. Is your top 4 Bama, Clemson, ND, and UCF?
They haven't lost in 2 years. UCF had earned a right to play for the title over anyone else. I don't give a rats ass how 'deserving' anyone else is.
Alabama will win their conference championship and eliminate Uga from playoff contention
Notre Dame is a lock, and they're done with their schedule
Clemson will beat Pitt and be a lock.
I think Oklahoma will beat Texas and fill the 4th position.
Just how I see things playing out, anyway.
Assuming all goes as expected, the big question will be:
Oklahoma vs Ohio State
Ohio State is always looking to slip in there.
if ou beats the one team they lost to this year they will be in. osu beating NW wont move the needle enough imo
You're right with your last sentence. It isn't a marquee matchup and a win isn't impressive....of course Urban will run up the score.
I agree, that should be the case.
But the argument will be made. Particularly if someone in the top 4 stumbles.
I think the most likely scenario for Ohio State getting in would involve Oklahoma and Georgia both losing. Then it would just be a matter of only have 4 teams with 0 or 1 loss.
I thought about this, but I can't see a win over NW being enough to jump OU if they beat Texas.
Ohio State shouldn't be in. That loss against Purdue was terrible. It wasn't an OT loss...they got destroyed. Just like Iowa last year.
Bama (no matter what happens next week)
Clemson (I figure they beat Pitt)
Notre Dame
Oklahoma (if they beat Texas...I think they will) or Georgia if they beat Bama
The OSU UMD game was pretty bad and was one throw away from losing (it was a bad throw).
But OSU jumping a Big 12 team by running up the score, that would never happen. TCU was so much better that year, a 3 point road loss to a 11-1 team vs an OSU team that lost to us (we were not 11-1).
One thing I hope happens in the playoff is that they make ND the 4th seed. Oklahoma and Ohio State are much scarier teams offensively and I think everyone would rather play ND than those two, so it seems a bit silly to make Alabama have the more difficult first playoff game. It kind of defeats the whole idea of being the one seed if the two seed gets the much easier opponent.
What happens if OSU, Georgia, and OU all lose their championship games? Georgia still in at #4?
i would imagine whoever is ranked highest heading into the weekend gets in
Well yeah, I'm just asking who you guys think that would be.
That's the only scenario where UCF has any sort of shot. Not saying they get it or even if they should, but that's the only path for them. And probably have Clemson lose too for good measure.
I'm not sure if Georgia would be in, considering they would be a #4 seed and just lost to the #1 seed. Why have a back-to-back rematch?
I almost wonder if they would put UCF in for spite in this scenario. They lost their star QB, up against a juggernaut Bama team.. let them in at 4 to get destroyed and use that drubbing to dismiss any chance a G5 team ever getting in again.
To Clemson, all I will say is please destroy Pitt next weekend to leave no doubt.
ND is in
If either wins, Clemson and Alabama are also in
If one of Oklahoma or Ohio State wins, they are the fourth. If neither win, then... I dunno UCF? Washington?
If UGA beats Alabama, they are in and so is Alabama.
If Alabama, Northwestern, Pitt, and Texas all win, then I hope UCF is win and in with ND, Alabama, and god knows who else, Clemson maybe?
ND should be in no matter what. Much like UCF they did "everything they could possibly do" except they also played a real P5 schedule with impressive wins which is the one thing we take away from UCF. Doesn't matter if they were in a conference or not.
Alabama would need to be DESTROYED by Georgia to get left out and even then they probably still get in.
Clemson is probably in the same situation as Alabama though if both were to get destroyed in their conference championship Clemson would get left out because it was Pitt.
If there's no chaos Oklahoma should be the last one in. If Georgia beats Alabama in anything but a blowout, Bama should get in over Oklahoma. Ohio State should only get in if Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma ALL lose on the last weekend (so it would be Georgia, Bama, ND, OSU) - the Purdue loss *should be* too awful for them to overcome any other scenario but I will never discount the committee's ability to completely change all their logic to make sure Ohio State gets what they want.
I'm of the opinion that a school like UCF should have a shot but that it also should come via the playoff system changing completely rather than randomly deciding they should go in over these big time programs with great seasons.
Everyone not named Alabama is playing for second place anyway.
As someone who lives in Orlando, I'm hoping for chaos this weekend:
UCF to beat Memphis badly, without Milton.
Texas to beat Oklahoma
NW to beat OSU
Alabama to crush Georgia.
If all that happens, there's no way they could leave UCF out. Let 'em play! They may get worked by Bama, but still, give them a shot!
This is the only scenario I see UCF getting in. But if all the dominos fell this way. I would get behind UCF 100% to be included over anyone else.
100+ FBS teams, and it is essentially a 2 team league overall. alabama and clemson are the only teams that matter right now. they'll be in the national championship this year, and likely next year as well. clemson loses a lot on defense after this year, but it is actually possible that they don't punt one time next year. they will have one of the greatest offenses in history next year.
I want to see an undefeated ND get left out just to force their hand and see if they're more committed to remaining independent, or to vying for national titles under the modern system.
It would be interesting if Clemson, Oklahoma, and OSU all win emphatically on Saturday and Georgia wins a close one against Bama. Bama will not be left out regardless, and Georgia besting Bama should put them in. Clemson would be in no question. Then you have Oklahoma, OSU, and ND with a case for the last spot. I still think OSU would have the weakest case by virtue of the worst loss, but I could see some serious discussions happening since OSU is peaking at the right time and a lot of people would just love to see the Buckeyes in. I think if ND plays that USC game this Saturday it would spark a more serious debate, but they have done everything they possibly could and are in the clubhouse now with a complete resume, so I don't see them being left out.
If they even get down to the strength of schedule debate . . .
A different breakdown for everyone's schedules:
-Alabama: 9 P5, 2 G5, 1 FCS
-Clemson: 10 P5, 1 G5, 1 FCS
-Notre Dame: 10 P5, 2 G5
-Georgia: 9 P5, 2 G5, 1 FCS
-Oklahoma: 10 P5, 2 G5, 0 FCS
-Ohio State: 11 P5, 1 G5, 0 FCS
I'd like to point out a few things:
There are A LOT of different SOS rankings, this is probably FPI because it's an ESPN guy, though it could be traditional SOS which is a seriously flawed metric.
That said, FPI SOS grossly overrates teams who play lots of 30-60 ranked teams, which is why this ranking has Clemson so high.
In Bill Connelly's S&P+ SOS, the teams are much more appropriately ranked in my opinion. His SOS rankings differ pretty strongly from those listed above, but I find them to be much more accurate. Nobody in their right mind thinks Clemson has played a tougher schedule than Alabama.
Here is a link to Bill Connelly's Resume S&P+ which is in my opinion a far superior rating system for Strength of Record than FPI SOR. It measures rates your resume on how well an average top 5 team would do against your schedule AND achieve the results that you achieved. In this way, it gives a more accurate view of your performance beyond just wins and losses. He gives a detailed explanation of why he built it and why he believes traditional SOS calculations are a bad way to gauge a team's resume every time he posts his weekly update to this.
If bama loses, and still gets in over other 1 loss teams that are conference champions, then we might as well admit we don't care about conference championship games and stop playing them. We might as well stop having conferences and open the schedules up.
It was stupid that they made it in without having to play the game last year, but if the result of the game doesn't matter, why bother playing it.
agree 100%
Can schools choose to pass on a championship game like they can a bowl game? Sorry folks, I'd rather be national champs than ACC champs, GT can have my spot in the ACCCG