BPI gives Virginia a 79 percent chance to win Tuesday. However, should the Virginia Tech pull off the upset, BPI projects its chance to get a No. 1 seed in March to jump from 32 percent to 47 percent, which would be the fourth highest in the nation.
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Without looking at the numbers my guess is that they are basing those numbers off of probability to win the remaining games without factoring in any upsets.
Considering @UNC is 42% chance to win I would guess our "expected" final record of >50% win probably is 26-4 (UVa 2x, Duke, & UNC). 26-4 in the ACC would be in the one seed discussion.
Kind of crazy talk but that is my guess of how they determined that number.
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I think you are correct. Unfortunately, there is no way we finish with that kind of record IMO. The ACC is too crazy. Pitt easily beat a good FSU team yesterday and Syracuse won in Durham. Conference play will be a bloodbath. If we get out of ACC play with only 4 losses, we would be a shoe-in for a one seed. However, it just won't happen (I'd love nothing more than to be proven wrong)
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It was very clear when it said BPI projects its chance to get a No. 1 seed in March. If they meant for the ACC Tournament, it would have referenced 'the #1 seed', but they're specifically mentioning a tournament with more than one #1 seed. Hence, NCAA.
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after reading the article..... this is an awfully written piece
I feel like we're a bit confused about the part about being a #1 seed in March. This is referring to UVA and their chances at a #1 seed.
BPI gives Virginia a 79 percent chance to win Tuesday. However, should the Virginia Tech pull off the upset, BPI projects its (UVA) chance to get a No. 1 seed in March to jump from 32 percent to 47 percent, which would be the fourth highest in the nation.
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That makes no sense. If we pull off the upset, UVA's chances wouldn't jump to 47%. That's just counterintuitive. I would read that as Virginia Tech's chances increase to 47%.
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As much as I love VT sports.... I cannot grasp the idea of us having close to a 50% chance at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament considering we have our entire ACC schedule and ACC Tournament to go. We aren't even favorites to win the Conference...
Maybe if it clarified ACC Tournament #1 seed, but still, 47% would seem incredibly high when teams like Duke, UVA, and UNC will most likely finish with a better ACC record than us.
I've counted so many typos and grammatical errors in that article, it wouldn't surprise me if he somehow fucked it up so bad that the article is null and void and just can't be used at all.
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It's been edited now and is a lot clearer. They seem to think we could be one of 3 ACC teams with a real shot at getting a 1 seed for the NCAA tournament
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I'm really not that nervous, oddly enough. We get them at home later in the season and losing to them isn't going to make or break our season. I was much more nervous for the football game a couple months ago haha.
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Yup... losing to UVa on the road is a meh result. Completely expected and won't kill a resume. Quality Loss FTW.
However, a win over them has the potential to be program altering, given where we are now. So, kind of like a win-win. Either way, we'll still be highly ranked this time next week for our upcoming games against NCSU and UNC.
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Disagree that a win would be program altering. We've beat them 3 consecutive years and b-ball upsets happen all the time. This team needs to make a run in the tournament to alter program perception. This game (for some stupid reason) isn't even nationally televised.
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We are a Top 10 team facing an undefeated Top 5 team on the road in an ACC conference game. A win here puts us on the map unlike any other moment in VT basketball, because we're doing it in the premier basketball conference. Win tonight, and recruits will take notice. Win tonight and the ranking soars higher than its ever been for this program. Win tonight, and the program gets some swagger its never had before.
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It will be program altering in the fact that VT will get a ton of mid-season eye balls / coverage when that was something we would never really have except for the day or two post upset of a #1 tot #5 upset.
Keep in mind, we have to keep winning for that to maintain, but if we beat UVA and rattle off the following week's games, we're going to be very well covered through March (pending late season collapse).
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We have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Its really the absolute best place we could be mentally going into a game like this. Especially knowing we got them in this place last year, too.
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In a perfect world, we blow out UVA at their house, all our VT fans get caught on TV chanting "UMBC", then we attempt to storm their court for the ultimate disrespect factor.
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I was cool with it until we storm the court. That would be validation for them that we are still the little brother. I would rather we whoop them, chant "just like football" to remind them of their place, then peace out and repeat the whole thing in Cassell.
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Counterpoint: if we win, just walk out of the building like you knew it would happen from the start. Nothing would frustrate a Hoo more than us to just calmly accept a win over them in JPJ like it was expected to happen.
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If we beat them, we should be chanting in support of our guys. Not only is it petty, but I think it's disrespectful to our own players to bring up a game we had nothing to do with. This team has worked too hard to have their own fans chanting UMBC after they won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.
Imagine if their fans chanted ODU or JMU to us at a football game. We'd talk so much shit about their inferiority complex. If we were still irrelevant, it might make sense to troll them with UMBC. But we're a top 10 team and we should act like it.
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I don't even know if I'd consider us "relevant" nationally yet simply because we got lucky in the fact we only lost 2 players off a good team from last year....
If we can string along 3 to 5 seasons of Top 15 rankings, I can see your point, but I don't consider us a "Top 10" team even though the number next to our name says 9.... Having one breakout season in the midst of some slightly above average seasons doesn't constitute us being relevant IMO.
Especially if rumors are true about TA&M....
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We had absolutely nothing to do with UMBC's victory. We can enjoy their fans' misery, but to do anything more is claiming something we didn't do. Our victory over them should stand alone, without bringing in something unrelated.
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I remember the year after 14th seed Weber St knocked out 3rd seed UNC in the first round, UNC was serenaded with endless Weber St taunts in Cameron Indoor.
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I'm not sure I agree... it's like them ribbing us for losing to JMU/ODU or us ribbing them about losing to Richmond. Not related at all to the VT/UVA game, but we always involve that in the trash talk.
Or schools bringing up coaching controversies, academic controversies, etc while playing other teams....
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My hype will be full throttle BUT only after this game. UVA has either thrashed us or barely lost to us each of the last 3 years. We haven't looked particularly great recently and UVA has been playing just fine. Really interested to see how we play tonight.
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This feels like classic "getting ahead of ourselves" that precedes lots of losses in bball and football history. I hope the team is locked in on the game tonight.
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Comments
What kinda raised my eye brow a little bit...
Yeah, I wouldn't have us at a 32% right now. But if we win tonight, I will believe more.
Yea I agree 32% seems kinda high right now. Basically saying there is a 1 in 3 chance of us being a #1 seed.
But if we do win tonight...
I read that as the chance to get a #1 seed in the conference tournament.
Definitely reads differently than that; otherwise, they wouldn't have said "4th highest in the country".
Yeah they're talking NCAA Tournament there
Without looking at the numbers my guess is that they are basing those numbers off of probability to win the remaining games without factoring in any upsets.
Considering @UNC is 42% chance to win I would guess our "expected" final record of >50% win probably is 26-4 (UVa 2x, Duke, & UNC). 26-4 in the ACC would be in the one seed discussion.
Kind of crazy talk but that is my guess of how they determined that number.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see that #1 on our line come Selection Sunday.
It will give UVA one less thing to "brag" about when they're trying to trash talk post yet another football loss.
Especially when we win our first round game.
I was going to mention "at least we can win with a #1 next to our name", but unfortunately they have the luxury of having that happen already.
The thing about UVA basketball 'fans'.. they can talk about delusional VT FB fans, but by the same token, their hoops program has not won SQUAT
I think you are correct. Unfortunately, there is no way we finish with that kind of record IMO. The ACC is too crazy. Pitt easily beat a good FSU team yesterday and Syracuse won in Durham. Conference play will be a bloodbath. If we get out of ACC play with only 4 losses, we would be a shoe-in for a one seed. However, it just won't happen (I'd love nothing more than to be proven wrong)
The title of the article refers to the ACC tournament.
Only three teams vying for #1 seeds?
I still think this is referring to the ACC Tournament.
Edit: I changed my own mind. The "4th highest in the country" sold me.
It was very clear when it said BPI projects its chance to get a No. 1 seed in March. If they meant for the ACC Tournament, it would have referenced 'the #1 seed', but they're specifically mentioning a tournament with more than one #1 seed. Hence, NCAA.
should the Virginia Tech pull off the upset
All I took from this is that we've reached the pinnacle.... we're now "The" Virginia Tech, not to be confused with just normal ol' Virginia Tech.
THE Virginia Tech
We're unofficially a blue blood now!
😬
Are other schools going to call us A Virginia Tech?
Either that or An Virginia Tech
It's a tomato/potato thing.
after reading the article..... this is an awfully written piece
I feel like we're a bit confused about the part about being a #1 seed in March. This is referring to UVA and their chances at a #1 seed.
BPI gives Virginia a 79 percent chance to win Tuesday. However, should the Virginia Tech pull off the upset, BPI projects its (UVA) chance to get a No. 1 seed in March to jump from 32 percent to 47 percent, which would be the fourth highest in the nation.
That makes no sense. If we pull off the upset, UVA's chances wouldn't jump to 47%. That's just counterintuitive. I would read that as Virginia Tech's chances increase to 47%.
Never mind. It's too confusing to try to make sense of
As much as I love VT sports.... I cannot grasp the idea of us having close to a 50% chance at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament considering we have our entire ACC schedule and ACC Tournament to go. We aren't even favorites to win the Conference...
Maybe if it clarified ACC Tournament #1 seed, but still, 47% would seem incredibly high when teams like Duke, UVA, and UNC will most likely finish with a better ACC record than us.
I've counted so many typos and grammatical errors in that article, it wouldn't surprise me if he somehow fucked it up so bad that the article is null and void and just can't be used at all.
It's been edited now and is a lot clearer. They seem to think we could be one of 3 ACC teams with a real shot at getting a 1 seed for the NCAA tournament
Thanks for the update.
I haven't been this nervous about a sporting event in quite a while. Just gotta get through work.
I'm really not that nervous, oddly enough. We get them at home later in the season and losing to them isn't going to make or break our season. I was much more nervous for the football game a couple months ago haha.
Yup... losing to UVa on the road is a meh result. Completely expected and won't kill a resume. Quality Loss FTW.
However, a win over them has the potential to be program altering, given where we are now. So, kind of like a win-win. Either way, we'll still be highly ranked this time next week for our upcoming games against NCSU and UNC.
Disagree that a win would be program altering. We've beat them 3 consecutive years and b-ball upsets happen all the time. This team needs to make a run in the tournament to alter program perception. This game (for some stupid reason) isn't even nationally televised.
We are a Top 10 team facing an undefeated Top 5 team on the road in an ACC conference game. A win here puts us on the map unlike any other moment in VT basketball, because we're doing it in the premier basketball conference. Win tonight, and recruits will take notice. Win tonight and the ranking soars higher than its ever been for this program. Win tonight, and the program gets some swagger its never had before.
It will be program altering in the fact that VT will get a ton of mid-season eye balls / coverage when that was something we would never really have except for the day or two post upset of a #1 tot #5 upset.
Keep in mind, we have to keep winning for that to maintain, but if we beat UVA and rattle off the following week's games, we're going to be very well covered through March (pending late season collapse).
If we can keep it to a ≤10 point loss (due to garbage time fouls/free throws), I'll be content.
Yeah there's not much at stake here. A loss tonight really doesn't hurt the season much.
We have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Its really the absolute best place we could be mentally going into a game like this. Especially knowing we got them in this place last year, too.
In a perfect world, we blow out UVA at their house, all our VT fans get caught on TV chanting "UMBC", then we attempt to storm their court for the ultimate disrespect factor.
I was cool with it until we storm the court. That would be validation for them that we are still the little brother. I would rather we whoop them, chant "just like football" to remind them of their place, then peace out and repeat the whole thing in Cassell.
you right... storming in the end would look more negative...but I couldn't think of any other college hoops related disrespect things.
unless J Rob drains another 3 at the buzzer while up 15+ just cause
Some variation of this disrespect:
Counterpoint: if we win, just walk out of the building like you knew it would happen from the start. Nothing would frustrate a Hoo more than us to just calmly accept a win over them in JPJ like it was expected to happen.
Walk out of the building after chanting Let's Go... Hokies. If we win and chant UMBC, I'll be embarrassed.
All is fair in love and war....
They have the most humiliating defeat(s) in college basketball history....they deserve to always be reminded...
If we beat them, we should be chanting in support of our guys. Not only is it petty, but I think it's disrespectful to our own players to bring up a game we had nothing to do with. This team has worked too hard to have their own fans chanting UMBC after they won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.
Imagine if their fans chanted ODU or JMU to us at a football game. We'd talk so much shit about their inferiority complex. If we were still irrelevant, it might make sense to troll them with UMBC. But we're a top 10 team and we should act like it.
I don't even know if I'd consider us "relevant" nationally yet simply because we got lucky in the fact we only lost 2 players off a good team from last year....
If we can string along 3 to 5 seasons of Top 15 rankings, I can see your point, but I don't consider us a "Top 10" team even though the number next to our name says 9.... Having one breakout season in the midst of some slightly above average seasons doesn't constitute us being relevant IMO.
Especially if rumors are true about TA&M....
I think you're confusing 'Top 10 Team' (which we are- it says right there on the paper) with Top 10 Program
eh... you can put any number next to a name, it doesn't mean much...
(remember #13 ranked VT football in September?)
I honestly don't think we're Top 10 material yet, given our loss to a shitty Penn State team and a near loss to a shitty GT team..
We're good... but I want to see it vs. non out of conference scrub teams
(I'm not calling our team a pile of shit, but this was the first image in my head that I had when typing out that sentence.)
Still think we're a Top 10 team?
We had absolutely nothing to do with UMBC's victory. We can enjoy their fans' misery, but to do anything more is claiming something we didn't do. Our victory over them should stand alone, without bringing in something unrelated.
I remember the year after 14th seed Weber St knocked out 3rd seed UNC in the first round, UNC was serenaded with endless Weber St taunts in Cameron Indoor.
I'm not sure I agree... it's like them ribbing us for losing to JMU/ODU or us ribbing them about losing to Richmond. Not related at all to the VT/UVA game, but we always involve that in the trash talk.
Or schools bringing up coaching controversies, academic controversies, etc while playing other teams....
I picture a gesture something like this....
ESPN: Hypes up the game tonight by saying it could be a preview for the championship game in the best conference.
Also ESPN: doesn't televise the game.
John Swofford's inept TV deal brokering and nepotism collide to weigh down the whole conference, again.
Them not televising the game is on the ACC, not ESPN
My hype will be full throttle BUT only after this game. UVA has either thrashed us or barely lost to us each of the last 3 years. We haven't looked particularly great recently and UVA has been playing just fine. Really interested to see how we play tonight.
Good morning julia!
I've been listening to a lot of rush for this game
Fuck UVa.
This feels like classic "getting ahead of ourselves" that precedes lots of losses in bball and football history. I hope the team is locked in on the game tonight.
This aged well.