Lots of love both for NAW and Buzz. The analysis reads, in part:
Hokies head coach Buzz Williams knows how to turn relatively unheralded recruits into NBA players. He churned out a line of tough-minded wings who outperformed their draft stock (Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Wesley Matthews) at Marquette. While Alexander-Walker will be more of an offensive-minded player in the NBA than his predecessors, he has that style of play in his DNA. His combination of size, shooting ability, basketball IQ, and defensive pedigree should be enough to take him off the board relatively quickly in this draft.
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Am I the only one who hasn't been impressed by NAW lately?
He hasn't really been playing the way that fits his strong suits since J-rob got hurt. He's been taking the ball up the court himself a lot. His drives to the basket look good, its taken him awhile to get the passing thing down which he's getting better at, his shooting is still good but he's getting far less open looks. His free throw shooting is the biggest head scratcher to me, seems like he's gonna go 1/2 every time he's at the line.
I agree with your assessment more than the narrative of he can't get his own shot and already categorizing him as a role player. He's a shooting guard forced to take part of the ball handling role and having to play longer minutes. I think that whole combination has him pressing/fatigued. The free throw percentage is concerning and it's the same average as last year so far. It needs to get to 80%+. He is too reckless with his passing but that gets magnified with handling the ball more.
He can't get his own shot. He doesn't have a particularly clean handle. He's careless with the ball in forcing passes and drives. I don't watch enough NBA to know where he fits. Could he be a Klay Thompson type of player?
Not even close to Klay (no disrespect). Klay is an elite shooter and very good (underrated) defender. NAW doesn't really have one elite skill, imo, which gives me pause on drafting him so high. Like if he was a knock down shooter like JJ Redick, I could see drafting him at 10 and thinking I could get by with his shooting while the rest of his game rounds into form. NAW is pretty good at a lot of things, but not elite. But because he doesn't have one elite skill, he's going to be a liability as he takes time to find his way (which could be a problem if a team isn't patient with him). I think what you're looking at is someone like Danny Green or Kentavious Caldwell Pope; a guard that can't get his own shot or run the offense but can affect games thru his shooting and defense. FWIW, Green is pretty darn good. He's a solid starter on championship level teams. KCP is more of a journeyman role player. Also, Green was a 2nd round pick while KCP was a 1st, so that gives you an idea how much of a crapshoot the NBA draft can be.
Yeah, no disrespect taken. I keep hearing NAW is being viewed as a PG in the NBA and I don't see that at all. Klay was the first guy that came to mind that doesn't have to handle the ball very much and makes his living with his jump shot, usually off of screens and very minimally off the dribble. That's where I think NAW would be best suited. I like your other comps.
They failed to mention his dramatic dip in numbers since Robinson's injury. I don't feel like digging in the site to find the exact averages since Robinson's injury, but these per game splits for each month give a good indicator. Look how big of a drop off the month of February (no Robinson) has.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/nickeil-alexander-walker-1/...
All his shooting numbers are down drastically, assists haven't changed much but his turnovers jumped quite a bit. That's indicative of a player still very much dependent on others. He's still got first round talent and I'm 98% certain he'll be 1st round pick if he comes out, but I'd be hesitant to pick a player in the top 10 with that kind of dropoff. With that kind of pick, you're expecting a starter who might develop into an all star, but those numbers look more like a role player. But this draft is pretty darn soft imo once you get outside the top 3ish picks, so its almost a toss up. If you can get any player that's a contributor, you've done well. Regardless of where he's drafted, I doubt you're going to see an immediate return. He's one of these players that's good enough to be in the NBA right now but you're gonna have to develop.
Remember that basketball is all about fit and that the NBA draft is all about potential potential potential. NAW's numbers are way different given his role on the team when 5 is/isn't playing. NAW might not be a lead ballhandler in an offense, but could he be a Will Barton or a Joe Harris? There is incredible value in finding an "elite role player" who plays within the offense at a high level.
Agree NAW could find a niche like you're talking about. Those type of guys aren't lottery picks, though, which is what's weird with his current projection. Barton and Harris were both 2nd rounders FWIW.
You can't compare draft pedigree to actual on-court production, though. The draft is effectively a crapshoot and you draft based on potential. Lots of "ready-made" basketball players drop in the draft because they're already at or near their ceiling - look at players like Jalen Brunson and Malcolm Brogdon. Being younger is a huge draw for NBA teams.
Edit: maybe a better comp is Josh Howard
As a Mavs fan I used to love me some Josh Howard.
Not top 10 value normally
I still have hope that his recent slump causes him to stay another year, get his degree, learn to be a better pg, then go pro after next year.
I love NAW as a college player but I do not see a first round NBA player (yet). To me, he seems to shrink a bit in the most crucial times. His progression from last year has been dramatic though, so maybe scouts see the potential. But, drafting top ten on potential alone?
Lottery pick caliber NBA players are typically easy to spot (IMO).. They stand out head and shoulders above other college players (see Duke backcourt). To me, NAW has never passed the 'eye test' of a lottery pick even in his best games. He is not a freak athlete, doesn't create his own looks with ease, is not a master distributer, and is not an absolute knock-down shooter with a quick release a la Klay Thompson. He tends to disappear for long stretches of games, typically games where he is guarded by/guarding an NBA caliber player. He is one of the better players Tech has had in many years, and I hope he becomes an NBA level talent, but right now I just don't see it.
I'm sorry, but the kid is a really good distributor. He makes unbelievable passes almost every game. His ability to do so also leads him to try to make even tougher passes that get stolen. This is something he will learn to avoid as he gets more experience.
As for not having a quick release, have you watched our games? The guy has about as a quick of a release as you can have. And "not a knock down shooter like Klay Thompson" is a little unclear. Klay Thompson now? Or the Klay Thompson his sophomore year that shot 36% from 3? Or are we talking the Klay Thompson that shot 39% from three his junior year (which NAW is matching right now playing in the ACC compared to the pac12 where Klay played)? By the way Klay was drafted 11th overall after his junior year shooting 39% from three.
I don't totally like the Klay comparison as a total player, but if you look at their college stats it's like you are looking at NAW's, especially when comparing the competition they are playing against (acc vs pac12)
NAW sophomore: 16.7pts, 3.9rbs, 3.8 assists, 50% fg, 39.5% 3pt, 2.1 steals, turnovers 2.8
Thompson sophomore: 19.6pts, 5.1rbs, 2.3 assists, 41% fg, 36% 3pt, 1.4 steals, 3.4 turnovers
Thompson junior: 21.6pts, 5.2rbs, 3.7 assists, 43.6% fg, 39.8% 3pt, 1.6 steals, 3.4 turnovers
Pretty similar. NAW is obviously the more "knock down" shooter of the two at the collegiate level, and based on these numbers and knowing Klay was drafted at 11 after his junior year, it doesn't seem far fetched NAW is ranked at 10 on this list.
With all that said, I think he'll end up drafted towards the bottom of the first round after his games without 5 have certainly exposed flaws in his game
Doesn't really tell the whole story though. Thompson was the man for WSU and really carried them. Because of that, he had teams all focusing on him to slow him down yet he still put those numbers up. Contrast with NAW, when faced with more pressure (albiet small sample size), he's faded. I don't think they're all that similar so if you're drafting NAW and expecting Klay, I think you're more likely than not to be disappointed.
I agree it doesn't tell the whole story, but then again playing in the ACC vs the PAC12 is a huge difference. Also, compare those numbers and realize that Thompson was never asked to be the primary ball handler. NAW has only faded when that happened. If we had a serviceable point guard to run the offense and distribute then NAW's numbers would be even better. If NAW could play his game instead of being forced into a game he's not comfortable with, then his numbers would be way better.
Long story short is I was simply pointing out that this websites grade of 10th overall wasn't crazy when you compare the numbers to Klay's. I would say his numbers are better than klay's sophmore year and Klay didn't dramatically improve those numbers staying a year and got drafted 11th overall. A year younger and comparable numbers (better shooting, better defense, fewer turnovers) and a 10th overall pick isn't out of the question.
And again, I'll say I don't think he's a lottery pick, and think he drops to the latter part of the 1st round due to his play since 5 has been out
Here's the thing though - any NBA team who drafts NAW is gonna have at least 7 players on the roster better than Robinson, and probably two point guards. I don't think you knock NAW's draftability because injuries/suspensions/NCAA crap have forced Buzz to play NAW in a primary ball handling role that doesn't suit him as opposed to a secondary play maker as an off-ball wing.
Lets not confuse lack of NBA potential with a player trying to do too much.
NAW is the latter. Let's not be slaves to the moment. We've all seen NAW carry this team in games this year. Recently, no, but he is avg 17, 4, 4 & 2 steals for the season. If your favorite NBA team was drafting a 6-5 G with those season numbers, you would not ask any questions. Coupled with the watch lists, Buzz effect, and two tourney appearances and you get a NBA lottery pick.
I believe the better comparison for NAW is Otto Porter (less 3 inches), not Klay. Jack of all trades, master of none. A Max player who was a lottery pick and no Wiz fan believed he was worth either the pick or the contract. Maybe still isn't. But he got his money and he was still the 3rd overall pick.
Strong disagree on this one.
Otto Porter has struggled when he's asked to do much more than be a cutter or spot-up shooter. Despite NAW's struggles as a lead ballhandler in J-Rob's absence, his court vision is clearly there. He's going to be a much better creator in the NBA than Porter.
NAW is a good shooter and that typically translates well to the NBA. He's also a crafty player when it comes to getting to the rim, though I think he'll definitely need to tighten up his handle and develop some kind of floater to be a more effective offensive player in the NBA. However, he gets his shot blocked at the rim far too often for a 6'5" guy IMO.
No he's not gonna be James Harden or Klay Thompson but NAW has the potential to be the exact type of #2/#3 option a team needs to be elite in the NBA. He won't initiate the offense but has the potential to catch a kick out pass after someone has broken down the defense and be able to knock it down or drive against an off balance defense. That's what he was doing with 5 in and has the potential to develop skills off the bounce and with his handle in the league. He also has shown flashes of being able to distribute out of the high and low post, combine that with a couple post moves and he can take people into the post and roast them whenever he has a size advantage. Think Kyle Kuzma but a better defender and with a post game.
I've also seen some people say they want to see him stay at school another year and continue to improve as a player. My counter to that is how is he going to improve more here at school while taking classes and being limited on his practice time than in a professional league with more dedicated coaches, more resources and more time?