I think we talk often about NAW leaving for the league early, but with the scouts that are showing up to see NAW in person, scouts have to be drooling at Kerry's play lately. Especially as they walk away underwhelmed by NAW's performances.
I think we'd be in a world of hurt if we lost KBJ this off-season, WAY more than if we lose NAW. Especially with the wing players and guards that we tend to sign.
I say all of this to say, let's enjoy the ride, and hope it lasts as long as it possibly can.
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TKP Slack made up hashtags about my hot takes when I said this.
Take that, Brian.
Skutt staying ahead of the curve, I like it!
Nah, NAW is more a threat to leave. I'm like 98% sure NAW is going to be a 1st round pick. I doubt he's turning that down (which still benefits us because its a very nice recruiting chip to show Top 100 recruits that you can be 1st round picks at VT). KBJ has been great this year and it been fun seeing his growth, but its not automatic he would get drafted. I will say though that his play is enough to where I'm sure teams are putting him on their boards to look into. At the every least, KBJ should put his name in the pool to get draft feedback and make a decision based on that.
The bigger threat might be KBJ just goes pro in general. He's already graduated. Even if he doesn't get enough NBA interest to be drafted, he could go to Europe.
Yeah his possible departure scares the living crap out of me, because we wouldn't have ANY bigs left to contribute in a way that he does.
I'm not great at scouting basketball, but I am 100% certain Blackshear would be drafted if he left early. He seems to be at least close to his listed 6'10" and he can shoot and pass. That's enough to make NBA GMs give him some serious consideration..
Now he might be a late first, or even a second round pick, which won't guarantee him making a roster his first year. So it might be better for him to stay a year. But if he comes out, he's at least getting drafted.
The big knocks against him would be his age and his injury history. He's 22 years old. While there are always exceptions, the general consensus is most basketball players have started to approach the upper end of their development curve by that age. So most NBA teams are gonna see him and view him as not having that much more room to grow. For example, if you draft him and he's just a back end rotational player, that's pretty much what he's gonna be the rest of his career. Like if a player hasn't shown any flashes of being a possible all star down the road by age 22, he's not suddenly going to unlock that potential at age 25. The other thing is his injury history. Teams will absolutely be looking at his feet wanting to know if the grind of an 82 game schedule will eventually take its toll. There's been enough documented evidence in the past that bigs with odd running forms develop leg injuries as time goes on so plenty of teams will be wary of this. Those two alone would probably keep him out of the 1st round.
Then you factor in his actual play and skills. He's a good athlete, but not a great one by NBA standards. He's good enough to be a damn good college player but could be limited against elite NBA athletes. He has a lot of nifty and smart post moves to make up for that, but more skilled and elite post defenders can muscle him out of that area. He's developed a 3 point shot, but he doesn't shoot it nearly enough to say for sure that he could translate that into being a real stretch 4 or 5 in the NBA, something he would have to do imo since he's not an elite athlete already. IMO, he's a smart player (minus some dumb fouls every now and then) with good passing instincts and skills that make him a great college player, but they aren't sharp enough to be a clear cut draft prospect. If he continues to play well and has a good tournament, I think he probably could get picked up in the 2nd round and have a shot to make a roster in the Fall.
The tough thing for us is that pro prospect wise, it doesn't really help him at all to stay. He's not going to raise his NBA profile staying 1 more year. His age is already a knock against him so staying 1 more year would just add to it. If he goes to Europe, he would get paid and have more time/coaching to fill out his game. The only thing there is to keep him at VT is just his love for VT and playing college ball. And for some guys, that's enough.
Why not both...
Stay to win natty 2020
Yeah I'm getting slightly concerned McGruber, if we lose a big like him this offseason, I truly couldn't be mad if Buzz takes another job, because there isn't a big of his caliber in our stable or out on the transfer market to my knowledge.
It is sort of Buzz's job to recruit these guys to come to Tech. I think we have all bemoaned the lack of a KBJ successor and hopefully this doesn't come to bite us hard in 2020
The first time I seriously started thinking about KBJ leaving was when he tried that spin into a step back 3 from the high post against UVA. He didn't make it but it rattled around and Cassell nearly exploded, big men aren't supposed to move that way and the scouts had to be drooling over that. The step back 3 is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the NBA and man if you have a 6'10 guy who can do that and pass and play good defense, I have to think they're interested. Their main concern may be his running gait, his left heel rarely touches the ground and that cannot be good for the long term health of his legs. NAW should 100% leave especially if he's listed as a top 10-15 pick, as an aside, I actually thought he had a pretty good game last night all around.
I think a 6'10" guy with the mobility he has, is your typical early to mid 1st round European draft pick, by the teams that have missed out on the marquee college prospect (I'm looking at you Knicks). I am concerned about his left foot/ankle/leg as well, but I think of a Serge Ibaka (less length/block threat, more mobility/court intelligence) type player. I think a lot of teams would pick him up in the late teens early 20s if he has a strong NCAA run. On the flip side NAW has a great chance to build his stock in the coming weeks, especially if 5 returns, but I think right now, a lot of teams are thinking of him as a buy low candidate.
I don't think he will leave. KBJ could really use one more year to show his ability to put the ball on the floor and work on his jumper. With the way the NBA is, I think he still needs to develop those skills more
I agree, he could use another year, but I am trying to put my O&M glasses aside, and say to myself, if this kid has a strong tournament run, he can be one of those kids that just rides the high wave and enthusiasm into the draft a'la Donte DiVincenzo from last year (minus the national championship run, granted I'll take that too).
I don't think he leaves, but the growth in his game since the beginning of the year has been very impressive.
Why wouldn't he leave? Especially if he has a strong tournament run. He's graduated, and his stock has never been higher. Like Buzz said last night, he's one of the best skilled big men, not only in the ACC, but in the COUNTRY.
To me, it really seems like the past month or so has really been his "coming out party", he has had a solid season, but it feels like earlier in the year he wasn't as dominate, or sound as he is now...maybe it's just a perception thing, that since 5 has been out, he's really stepped it up more.
edit: his game has really improved this month!
Beginning of the season through 1/30 (includes cupcake OOC opponents and 3 currently ranked opponents:
FG% - 49.6 Reb- 6.45/game Pts - 12.7/game
2/1-2/27 (all ACC opponents and 4 of these 8 games vs currently ranked opponents)
FG%- 60.8 Reb- 9.4/game Pts Pts- 20.5/game
To me it seems like he needs to show the league that this past month's performance isn't just a flash in the pan. I have no doubt that he will continue to succeed, but if I'm an NBA scout, I need more than that
But to speak to your point 757, wouldn't scouts look at his play versus the ACC more than they would OOC opponents? Think about it, it's like when scouts try to grade a OT in football, they tend to look at the level of competition that the prospect has lined up against, if they've lined up primarily against SEC defensive line talent, scouts tend to grade a player higher, versus the individual lining up week in week out against Big South teams. I think teams are going to look at Kerry and say he wasn't the focal point of the offense early in the season, later in the season it showed what he can do if the team HAS to rely on his talents offensively, and he didn't shrivel up underneath that immense pressure, and on top of that he did it against one of the top 3 conferences in the country, and sometimes against McDonalds All American/NBA ready bigs. I think your second set of stats show more of who he can be than his beginning of the season stats, especially with the guard play that we've been putting out on the floor in Bede and NAW.
If the question is "who is more likely to leave?", its NAW and it's not even particularly close. He's the better NBA prospect and will be a lottery pick if he does.
Having said that, could KBJ also go and be drafted? Sure. He's not a lottery pick and he'd probably be a reach in the first round.
Yeah GGC, I realized I butchered this question, while I was in bed ready to go to sleep. I'm going to fix it. I guess the question is, KBJ a more salivating prospect than NAW after the last few months without 5 on the court.
I think NAW is the better NBA prospect than KBJ and I don't think it's particularly close.
I'm gonna play contrarian here and say I actually think Blackshear looks more like an NBA player to me than NAW. Alexander-Walker does everything pretty well, but nothing that would make him a surefire elite NBA player. Blackshear is 6'10", he can pass and shoot, and he doesn't seem to have any glaring deficiencies.
I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but if I had to completely guess where they would be taken if the draft were today, I'd guess NAW would go around 20 and Blackshear around 30 (NAW sooner simply because he's more polished at this point).
I think there is a difference between what makes a player a good NBA player, and what makes a player a good NBA draft prospect. While I believe that KBJ might be the better NBA player than NAW at this point in their respective developments, NAW is unequivocally the better NBA draft prospect and it's not particularly close, due to age, frame, and game.
That's because teams look for room to grow and develop a player. A player who has a decent floor and sky-high ceiling is way more likely to be drafted higher than a guy with a safe floor and lower ceiling (e.g. the majority of his potential is already realized). NBA teams always tend to overestimate their player development ability. KBJ is probably closer to his ceiling right now than NAW is, but NAW's ceiling is higher as a player.
I don't know about salivating, but I think he sweats more based on the post game interviews.
I agree, its still NAW by a good margin. Nickeil fits the current NBA mold of an ideal wing player: he has the potential to be a very good defender, especially if he can bulk up. He is a good three point shooter on the catch and shoot and he can be a secondary playmaker on top of that. He should be a solid NBA starter.
KBJ has been great lately as the focal point of our offense but that opportunity just won't exist in the NBA. Highly skilled big men with somewhat limited physical abilities just don't have a place in the league like they used to, so his best bet might be as a bench center who can put up points-look at what Jahlil Okafor has been doing this season, for example
I think KBJ could do better than Okafor, simply because he is a better passer and shooter. KBJ's ceiling is probably something like Al Horford lite - the kind of big who can do everything at a B level. I don't know that we've seen KBJ switch that much onto smaller players and guard 1-on-1 on the perimeter like he'd have to do in the NBA.
If there's anything the NBA has taught us, it's that high-floor, lower-ceiling, older college players have lesser draft value than they do actual on-court value relative to taking a (relative) flier on a player with crazy upside and/or athletic ability.
That's a good point, quality older college players tend to stick on rosters even if they don't have the appeal of a younger talent. Hopefully KBJ finds some success in the league whenever he decides to go
I didn't want to say it because he's a Hoo but Mike Scott came to mind as a potential comparison. Scott had a well rounded offensive game in college and has ultimately carved out a long-term NBA career, but he was only a mid-2nd round pick.
Jerod Evans would be shocked if KBJ decided to turn pro.
He needs another season to show consistency, but he's definitely rounding into form. Another year like this, and he could be a possible late lottery pick with the way he's able to stretch the court and keep defenders honest all over the offensive side of the court.
I wonder though Alum, do we feel he needs another year, because we don't want to see him go to the league yet and desert our team a year early?
I feel like the NBA doesn't really look for consistency as much as the NFL does. Yet again, Donte DiVincenzo as my example. The kid had a great tournament run, and here he is, a player for the Bucks, averaging 4.8 points a game (partly because of depth ahead of him and injuries). Some teams go with the hot commodity; personally I feel like we are a strong tournament run from losing Kerry (Sweet 16 or better). A run where he contributes in the way that he has, even after 5 comes back. A run where he's the central point of the offense as he has been over the last few games.
4.8 PPG in the NBA can get you $16 million a year in the NBA, just ask Ian Mahimni of the Washington Wizards....Thanks Ernie....
#FireErnie
But also, all NBA contracts are insane.
NAW should go get his money (though I very much hope Buzz/KBJ/NAW are here next year).
I have no knowledge of the activity level of Mr. Blackshear's salivary glands.
I love what KB has been showing this season. What makes me wonder is if KB's improved play shows future recruits that they can be the premier BIG in Buzz's system and scheme. I haven't followed bball recruiting as much, but here's to hoping KB's play this year pays dividends on the recruiting trail for those BIGs.
Damn, we're blessed to have Buzzketball.
Me, I'd like to see if KBJ can learn how to play with his size more.
He's got the height thing down, but at 250+ lbs I kinda wish he'd body guys up on the regular instead of finessing then more often. To his credit, he's starting to do that some these days.
If he can add that to his game on a consistent basis, he'd be set.
he plays far too below the rim. needs to shoot more and be a stretch 4, he isn't athletic enough to get his own shot, no shame in that. most nba teams only have 1, maybe 2 guys who can do that.
At 6'10", teams won't want to play him at the same time as another big, so probably a stretch 5 --which is why the limited athleticism/size will hamper him compared to a Myles Turner. Idk any details about KBJ's wingspan, but if he's got really long arms it will really help him at the next level.