It's been over a month since I last updated the table below. It provides a summary of Ken Pomeroy and NET rankings for the Hokies' opponents. The orange highlighted values indicate a top 25 ranking. Some notes for this snapshot in time:
- The Hokies are currently ranked #11 in both KenPom and NET
- Wins include 4 Quadrant 1, 6 Quadrant 2, and 12 Quadrants 3-4
- All 6 losses are Quadrant 1
- Edit:
The Q1 win over NCST is on the cusp of being a Q2 - None of the Q2 wins are on the cusp of being a Q1
- Remaining regular season games are @FSU (Q1) and Miami (Q3)
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Comments
Being near top 10 in the metrics plus getting 5 back should get us to the 4 line if we don't completely shit the bed down the stretch.
The 4 seed is what I want, never want a 5-12 or 6-11 matchup
I'll happily take any of those over the 8-9 matchup.
The thing I worry about is that our current metrics look almost identical to when the committee released their top 16 teams and we were on the outside looking in. Barely, but still not a top 4 seed in their eyes.
Morning of 02/09 (18-4):
NET: 10, KPI: 27, SOR: 15, BPI: 7, KenPom: 9, Sagarin: 11
3-4 vs NET Q1
Today (22-6):
NET: 11, KPI: 22, SOR: 13, BPI: 8, KenPom: 11, Sagarin: 12
4-6 vs NET Q1
From then until now, we've beaten the bottom dwellers we should beat; losses @ Clemson and home vs UVA; also the win last night vs Duke.
I think we need to win out to feel comfortable about making it to a top-4 seed since most of our metrics had us overrated to what the committee decided at the start of February. I personally think we past the eye test as of now as a 4-seed given recent play.
Are the looking at Q1 percentage or Q1 wins? In discussions I've seen it's about the number Q1 wins and we have one more this year than last.
3 please, got to avoid that 1
At least Penn State has stepped it up some to make that a Q1 loss and it should stay that way as they sit 59th and would have to drop 16 spots to make it a Q2
Net rankings don't update until about 230 every day, so I expect us to move into the top 10 in that
How is NC State on cusp of being Q2 win? They are 30 and I thought away games Q1 are rankings 1-75.
I thought that was strange too, and it was a road game which boosts the game's ranking.
My bad. I incorrectly was thinking that game was at home. Definitely a solid a Q1 win.
fsu game is big, not only for q1 game on road, but double bye. i would think no less than a 4 seed, but that's the cart before the horse. noles are very tough at home.
I think I saw where they are something like 47-3 in their last 50 home games. Plus, I recall FSU has a lot of bigs to try and counter Blackshear. It's just a historically bad matchup for us since they're always loaded with much more size than we have.
If I'm reading this site correctly, we haven't won a basketball game in Tallahassee since before I was born.
I'm 28.
I saw them struuuuugggle against ND. They should have lost that game.
Penn State up 29 on #17 Maryland with 14 minutes left in the game.
Looks like PSU is gonna finally help us
Penn State is an interesting one. Metrically, they are a top 50 program. The ball just hasn't bounced their way in a few games. They're number 340 in luck on Ken Pom. That's the difference in 5-12 Big 10 vs 9-8.
All of this after starting conference play 0-10
Question about the metrics
What counts as a neutral site game? Say, for example, we took some teams that were on that border between a 2nd Quadrant and 3rd Quadrant and decided to play our games in the Berglund Center in Roanoke rather than at Cassell while the students were gone. Could we effectively game the system and create more higher profile wins on a 'neutral site' despite it being effectively a home game for us?
By that logic I would say yes since it's not at Cassell. Could do a Virginia team only tournaments like they were doing the crossroad tournament somewhere up north, to play some of the Virginia teams