This is an honest question. With the very short rotation of our squad and the very condensed schedule of the ACC tournament format, do you think it might better for the NCAA tournament chances to not have a deep ACC tournament run?
We know this team as currently composed with Justin Robinson can punch above its weight given Blackshear plays well and stays out of foul trouble. We could make the Sweet Sixteen even without him. But it's increasingly difficult not to envision this team wearing down if we have to have a handful of players playing 35+ minutes a game with games on 2, 3, or 4 consecutive days in the ACC tournament.
Obviously, if Robinson comes back, that changes the ceiling for our team but also helps Buzz distribute minutes a little more judiciously.
Thoughts?
Comments
I think the issue is we're still playing for better seeding in the NCAA tourney. I like to think if we can make a run in the ACC, we can still earn a 4 seed instead of falling back a bit. We really want to avoid being a 5 seed if we can.
Hot take: it doesn't matter if we're a 4/5. The committee has shifted toward favoring middling P5 schools while dangerous mid-majors continue to move down the seeding lines. 13 is the new 12 (at least if the trend from last year continues).
I'd rather be a 6 or 7 seed than a 4 or 5. Seems obvious to me that avoiding a 1 seed as long a possible increases the chances of going further.
It's extremely dependent on matchups and how good the 1 seed is compared to the 2 and 3 seeds in the region.
For example in the current CBS sports bracket projection, we're a 5 with Tennessee as the 1, UNC as 2, and Texas Tech as 3. I think Tennessee is very good but I would easily take a game against them over Texas Tech and UNC in the bottom half of that bracket. I think there are 8 or 9 teams at top of the pack this year (UVA, Gonzaga, Duke, UNC, Michigan, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech, and I'm unsure about Michigan State) so you want to avoid as many of those teams as possible. Houston, LSU, Kansas, and Marquette are potential high seeds that I wouldn't mind facing.
Michigan State has lost two key contributors so I have a feeling that they will struggle once the tournament kicks in as they will face some of the same shortfalls we are dealing with.
This is March madness, man. Miami was a 6 last year, but ran into Loyola in the first round, who made the final 4. You never know whether the #13 or the #10 will get hot and be a bigger problem. I just want my team to win as many games as possible. Regular season, ACC tourney, NCAA tourney, anything.
Why not win both?
Yes, in an ideal world, yes. But it's not realistic to expect that to happen with effectively a six man rotation.
Personally I'd like to have a decent ACC tournament run and get another shot at UVA. We'd be looking at 4-5 days rest if we won that game, 5-6 for losing it, and a full week for losing to FSU in the quarters. I also don't know at what point the difference in rest days becomes negligible.
Ultimately I don't think we have much of a shot to win the ACC tournament without the double bye. I want revenge on FSU after last night and losing to UVA for a third time would suck. So I'll say I want to win the first game and be competitive after that, with the most important thing being getting Robinson some court time to knock off the rust if he's able to come back.
I would MUCH rather win the ACC. Which would you enjoy more? Winning a tournament over teams you know and hate, or making a run against out-of-conference teams in a tournament which you're realistically not going to win?
What would mean more, hanging an Elite 8 banner in Cassell or hanging and ACC tournament champ banner in Cassell. I am kinda leaning toward Elite 8.
I'd take the ACC Championship over an Elite 8 banner. At the Final 4 level, I'd take that over an ACC Championship. My preferences would probably trickle down something like this:
National Champion over ACC Champion
Final Four over ACC Champion
Elite 8 over ACC Finals
Sweet Sixteen over ACC Semi-finals
No, a deep run helps every bodies confidence and experience. Especially if JRob is coming back as the team dynamic has grown with his absence.
I think Robinson plays some Friday against Miami. And with a single bye, he gets an extra game to play as we progress through the ACC and NCAA tournament. Him and Blackshear combined are dangerous. Keep Blackshear out of foul trouble and our offensive options are huge. When teams press us hard full court like FSU did last night we can combine JRob and Bede to handle it begtter than we were able to last night.
Yes its gonna be a fun few weeks. Go Hokies!
UCONN played 5 games in 5 days a few years ago in the big east tourney and still won the NCAA tourney...so it can be done. I dont remember them having an especially deep bench.
How deep was their bench though? We are super thin.
Go as far as you can in the ACC tournament. Helps everyone's confidence, and gets a better seed for the dance.
Yes, worth it.
Play to Win! But I bet that if you asked the players and staff would they rather...1) Win ACC tourney and lose in 1st weekend of NCAA tourney OR 2) lose 1st round of ACC tourney and make it to Elite 8 in NCAA tourney
I actually think most of them might choose ACC tourney. Having that championship would mean more. And then I bet it is more of an even split if you change the option to a run to the Final 4.
Would be interesting to hear player and staff thoughts on that.
I guarantee that the "player and staff thoughts" would begin and end with "we are preparing to face Miami on Friday".
"We're just trying to go 1-0"
I think a deeper run helps the team get back on track with 5 on the court. May take 40 or 80 minutes of play before they're playing as a team like they did before the injury.
Making the ACC final vs. getting bounced is the difference between 1 or 2 days' rest considering NCAA tournament games won't start until the following Thursday. If we get bounced in the first round of the Big Dance, I don't think anyone in their right mind is looking backwards and saying "I wish we hadn't played so hard in the ACC Tournament." Just my two pennies.
Here's my hesitation: this is probably not the best or most accurate comparison, but the '10-'11 Duke Men's team, Kyrie Irving missed 26 games that season with a toe injury. Nolan Smith did a bang-ass job holding things together up to the NCAAT. As the story goes, they brought Kyrie back & ended up getting blown out by Zona in the Sweet 16. A number of folks pointed the fact that Irving hadn't been playing much & being rusty attributed to their exit (mind you they were just 1 yr removed from winning the Natty vs Butler). Pretty sure they were expected to at least get to the Elite 8.
Now I'm not saying the same thing will happen should Robinson be reactivated. But it does give one pause of thought.
I think close to 90% of all ACC tournaments have been won by either Duke or UNC. It's as near "fixed" as a sporting event can be and still be legit. I would much rather make it to the sweet 16 than get screwed by the refs playing one of those 2 teams in the semi's of the ACC.
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. It's not a conspiracy. They also happen to have many of the best players - ever. I'm all in for the Hokies, but if you honestly believe it's fixed in any form or fashion - why watch? Why be a fan for something so disingenious?
I'm so beyond the everyone is against us shtick. Just make shots, play D and WIN.
I've personally just never been into conference tournaments in basketball. They don't seem to really mean anything for most teams. Only seems to matter much for bubble teams who need to pull an upset to get in. If you're at the top it's just a speed bump on the way to the tournament that matters and if you're at the bottom it's just another game you have to play before you can go home.
Mid major conference tournaments are where the real action is. Pretty much the only P5 games I watch during champ week are ACC games and finals, everything else is mid and low-mid major games.
just saw this stat over at the 4 letters:
▪Clemson is an abysmal 20-65 all time in ACC tournament play, and has won multiple games just once in the past 56 years (2008).
OOF
finally, something we can throw in their faces next time they think their football team's good
It's just statistically abnormal. Looking at the numbers it means that 66% of the time they get bounced from the ACC tourney every time.
The players get a week's even if they make it to the conference championship. I'd like to see the team get into a rhythm right before the tournament, carry that momentum into the NCAA tournament, and make a run. Last season I watched Marshall win 3 games in 3 days, then carry that momentum into the NCAA tournament and beat Wichita State in the first round the same exact way they won Conference USA. Tech can make a much deeper run than Marshall if they get into a rhythm, so I'd love to see us play 3-4 games in the ACC tournament.
I saw something that said Robinson was out for tomorrow. Any backup for an espn story?
Greg Roberts in Roanoke said on his radio show today not to expect him back on Friday or in the ACC tournament. Would be probable for the NCAA though. He has sources and has been reliable in everything he's reported so far.
They get one bye for ACC. They have been playing and winning for several weeks with current rotation. They should do well. 4 seed is better.