This is one of the darkest moments of Hokies football in the last 20 years, if not the darkest of all. For one thing, it is the offseason and we are all dying to watch some football. We are also coming off our worst season in a very long time, and our current recruiting class is ranked abysmally low. And many are wondering what's going on with Bud's contract.
There is a fair amount of optimism for the upcoming season because we will be returning so many contributors and a favorable schedule looks to be coming at the perfect time, but the current feeling among many fans, as I have read it, is a deep sense of disappointment in our recruiting and 2018 performance.
With that said, I'd like to mention a fairly likely scenario for all you jaded Hokies fans to consider:
What is a reasonable expectation for the 2019 season? Some are putting the O/U at 8.5 wins. In my opinion that's a little low and I would take the over. It's not incredibly far fetched to see us winning 9 or 10 games this year. This is an optimistic take, but not an unreasonable take (at least in my estimation).
The 2020 season could build on that or stay about there around 9 wins. That's right on the line of winning the coastal or being in the conversation late in the year. Again, I know this is an optimistic take, but it is also reasonable when you consider Fuente's success with experienced talent in his first two seasons. In 2020 he will have a comparable amount of experienced talent.
What is a reasonable expectation for this year's recruiting class? Well clearly it will be a very low overall ranking due to the size of our class, and even a mediocre average rating looking at where we stand with a bunch of guys now. If we have the 9 to 10 win season mentioned above, that will bring a fresh excitement to our coaches recruiting pitch and hopefully that will help us land a few more players, perhaps a couple low 4-stars and a few higher 3-stars. We'll still finish with a low ranking and a mediocre average but is that the end of the world for us? I don't think it is all that bad. Sure there may be spots that we will need to sure up in future classes, but an isolated year of poor recruiting on a small class won't be completely debilitating.
The following year's recruiting class will probably be around where we usually are in the mid twenties. Maybe we finish a little higher with a larger class, but it probably wouldn't be much higher than 20. What does that do for our outlook? Well it puts us about where we have been over the years. With that kind of recruiting I think Fuente could consistently field a team that competes for the coastal title very year, winning it every few years and getting a shot at an ACC title. We would probably have a ranking that hovers between 10 and 25, with occasional dips into the top 10.
Of course, we all want our program elevated beyond that, and I'm sure there are coaches out there who could do that in Blacksburg, but with Fuente we have a guy who appears to be happy to stay in Blacksburg for years to come and who can (in my opinion) sustain the aforementioned level of success. Many fans will be dissatisfied with this level of success, but when I consider the likelihood of hiring a coach who might do better than Fuente, I'd much rather stick with who we have and not risk getting a coach who lowers our program.
Watching the Hokies win 9 to 11 games a year, compete for ACC championships every few years, and dip into the national conversation on occasion is a blast for me as a fan. Though the state of the program doesn't feel great right now when considering our recruiting and our previous season, I'm still expecting to enjoy a high level of success from Hokies football, and I think that's a reasonable and grounded expectation.
Comments
holy crap this is actually full of reasonable expectations, well done, plus one, leg to you sir
My expectations are the same as Fuente and Whits... Elevate the VT program. Don't maintain it, Don't keep it on cruise control, don't lose to Pitt every year, don't scour JUCO for DTs because you can't sign 4 year guys. ELEVATE the program. Sign a Nuke Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Stephon Anthony type recruiting class and elevate what Beamer did. Those are my expectations.
So... the coach should be a Hall of Famer and also win a national title at VT?
I'm honestly asking what elevating the program from Beamer would mean to you considering Beamer is a Hall of Fame coach and one of the winningest coaches of all time.
Elevating:
- Not having the 80th ranked defense in the country
- Going two weeks without players being dismissed or transferring out
- Signing significantly better recruiting classes than 72 year old Frank Beamer battling throat cancer
- A two deep of ACC level defensive tackles
- Corners that can play at this level
- Scoring touchdowns in the second half of ACC games
Let's start there.
I get that you're unhappy with the current state of the program but every discussion doesn't need to be so painstaking and full of snark. My question is pretty simple. I'm interested to know what's the bar that you believe Fuente was hired to elevate the program beyond? The 1995-2011 Beamer glory years or the 2012-2015 Beamer twilight years?
Every Fuente defender has already worn out the "he did better than Beamer's last 4 years"...so let's start with a string of 10-win seasons, and getting truly "in the mix" every 4-5. That brings it up to Beamer's level, in my book.
Oh, and do it with his own recruits, because Fuente's best on-field product has been with a majority of recruits signed by Beamer's staff. He's landed just a couple of legit playmakers so far.
Cmon.. do you seriously think Fuente was hired to avoid 7-6 and get to the Independence Bowl? Cmon man.
it's like you didn't even process the part about how every discussion doesn't have to be full of snark.
for what it's worth, you invoked 72 year old Beamer with throat cancer, not anyone else.
I think Fuente was clearly expected to do better than 7-6 and get to the Independence Bowl. Do I think he was expected to make us Clemson? No, not really. Personally I think performance approaching Mark Dantonio's run at Michigan State would be reflective of an extremely successful hire, but objectively I'd also say that's about the same performance as 1995-2011 under Beamer (and probably even slightly less depending on how harshly you rate MSU's 3-9 season in 2016).
Anyway, that's about where I would have optimistically set the bar for expectations on Fuente's tenure. After last season, we aren't where I would have hoped to be but I believe Fuente still has a chance to turn it around considering the track records of other comparable coaches (Dantonio, Chris Peterson, Brian Kelly, Mike Leach). It's entirely possible things will get worse and we'll have to move on like Oregon did with Mark Helfrich. If that happens, then so be it. But I can't for the life of me understand why it's so difficult to explain your opinion without all the snark and sarcasm though.
to be fair to dcwilson, there is a not-small-and-not-quiet group of folks around here who will argue with him regardless of what point he's trying to make. the snark is probably ingrained by now, but it definitely doesn't do him any favors when it comes to someone trying to genuinely engage with him
I think DCWilson's idea of elevating is pretty clear. Frank Beamer coached a lot of 'good' teams, and a small handful of 'great' teams (1999, 2000, 2007 and 2010). The expectation when Fuente arrived and announced that he'd keep Foster around was that we would install his Memphis offense here, which, when combined with Foster's defense, would result in a drastic improvement to a VT football program whose offense was outdated by over a decade. We have not seen that yet.
I don't doubt Fuente's coaching ability; in 2016 and at Memphis he proved that he could field some very good teams. However, for two seasons in a row now, we haven't had the horses to make that happen. Now, I recognize that some of that was outside of Fuente's control, but he hasn't exactly done a lot to mitigate the impact of those departures.
The expectation was to have more great seasons than good seasons. At the moment, it doesn't look like we're trending that direction.
I still think it's hilarious that we lost to JMU in 2010.
We were the first team to go undefeated in the ACC since Florida State when they were winning national championships, had Tyrod as a senior, the best running back trio in the country, the deepest receiving corps we have ever had except maybe the Royal-Morgan-Harper-Hyman days, a DB who led the country in interceptions, and great special teams.
How the fuck did that happen?
Yea, I think that JMU game was the result of a short week and a tough loss.
what JMU game
Small addition of 2005 and 2009 to the great team category. Both finished top 10, and 2009 was our best team in the era of S&P+ ratings (2005-present).
I thought about including that 2009, but I the losses to GT and UNC made me think otherwise. I didn't know that was our best S&P+ rated team though.
2009 was weird for those two games. One thing I would counter that with is that we played like proper peers with NC winning Alabama in the first game, leading for much of the game, even into the 4th quarter.
GT we should have probably won, but that was the best GT team (that or 2014), and Ryan Williams was playing with the flu. They also held the ball for an absurd amount of the 3rd quarter that really froze us out. One of the most frustrating GT games I can remember, which is saying something since they are all usually quite frustrating.
UNC was just letting the GT game beat us twice honestly. We came out flat and failed to finish a bunch of drives in the first half and it came back to bite us in the ass. An unpleasant game to attend that season. Luckily, I was also able to watch us dominate Tennessee in the CFA bowl.
Either way, I think you have a good point, but we did finish 10-3 and in the top 10.
I'm just shocked with a lot of the people who are defending Fuente entirely and giving him a pass, acting like they really didn't think he was hired to do anything but keep VT at or around average. It's like we've moved the goalposts for what to expect from his impact on the program in order to justify the lack of recruiting and mixed results. Fuente himself stated in 2017 that we were on track to catch up with Clemson. Clearly I don't think we are on track to get there anytime soon, but for people to act like VT doesn't have the potential to build itself back and compete with them are just accepting a defeatist attitude to defend Fuente. It's completely clear to me that he was brought in to elevate recruiting to a level where we can compete for the ACC again and be in the national mix, and to bring an offensive identity to VT which had been sorely lacking. To date, this has not been achieved, and the offense has been a mixed bag. To act like competing on the national stage and recruiting like a legitimate top 25 program wasn't the intention when he was hired is completely disingenuous.
As a "Fuente apologist", here's my take. I completely agree with you. He was brought in to elevate the program, and I don't think we should settle for someone who isn't capable of taking us to a national championship every once in a while. But we aren't a blue blood right now and we shouldn't expect someone to do that on a short time scale. In my mind the results of last season were largely beyond anyone's control, but if we're struggling to get to 7 or 8 wins in 2019 and 2020, clearly that's a trend, and clearly something isn't working. I would be upset if the program didn't start looking elsewhere at that point. For the time being though, I think we have to be patient. He's proven he can win in the past, I like his demeanour, I like his approach and the way he emphasizes accountability and hard work, and I think he represents VT well and embodies the culture we are proud of. Those are important things, and in my mind buy him something back. I think my biggest fear is he turns out to be an incredible coach but we drive him off because we were as impatient and short sighted as every other fanbase.
Good points. I'm not here advocating to fire him today and burn the whole thing down, I'm still pulling for him to succeed. But I don't think he's undeserving of any criticism as some do.
And to your last point, if he turns out to be an incredible P5 coach, VT football will certainly be benefitting from it and winning big. I also don't know of many better opportunities he would run off to if he's underachieving here in the next couple of years. If he can't succeed at VT, he's not moving to a better job.
OK, he doesn't get an unlimited amount of time, but I do think we should give him a few years of unlimited support. For me, he is still within that period of time. Ultimately, performance is measured by results on the field, and in recruiting.
I think some sort of concern/criticism is justified. In the criticism department though I just haven't seen a lot that's very productive. I get that he's not the flashiest recruiter, but I'm honestly at a loss for what a "great" recruiter looks like. How does a non blue blood start recruiting at that level and sustain it without pulling a Hugh Freeze? Are there examples of programs out there with recruiters who are constantly punching above their weight class, and who are respectable?
If this is what you mean by elevating, than I absolutely agree. In your first post it sounded like "elevating the program" meant something different
This is exactly what I'm trying to understand but you can't ask legitimate questions without dealing with numerous aggressive, snarky posts.
Elevating the program would be putting together teams that can compete on the national stage, not go 1-5 in BCS games and lose almost all good OOC games.
this is what i'd say constitutes "elevating the program" as well. in the mix for the conference/NY6 year after year, consistently competitive in those games.
having said that, I actually enjoy having great OOC games against P5 competition. I'd rather say we tried than play Flyover State College, but that's another conversation entirely
Yeah we need to schedule OOC as strong as possible to both expose our team to high level of competition and engage the fan base in higher profile games
I'm pretty sure all of us would love to see that but it's probably worth considering that means exceeding the achievements of a Hall of Fame college football coach and the likelihood of making two straight all-time great coaching hires is extraordinarily low. Dabo might be the only up-and-coming coach in the entire country that can make a claim to have met those expectations and wasn't taking over after being on an already high-performing staff (Lincoln Riley and David Shaw).
What do you think about Mark Dantonio's level of performance? He's won 3 B1G titles and gone 2-1 in BCS games, but they got destroyed by Alabama in their lone CFP appearance and have turned in 3-9 and 7-6 seasons over the last three years.
If Fuente strings together 3 straight top 6 seasons he'll have the benefit of the doubt Dantonio does. Btw the 2017 season you skipped was a top 15 team. Seems reasonable for MSU
Dantonio's record at Michigan State with final rankings:
2007 - 7-6
2008 - 9-4 (24/24)
2009 - 6-7
2010 - 11-2 (14/14)
2011 - 11-3 (10/11)
2012 - 7-6
2013 - 13-1 (3/3)
2014 - 11-2 (5/5)
2015 - 12-2 (6/6)
2016 - 3-9
2017 - 10-3 (16/15)
2018 - 7-6
Fuente's record at Virginia Tech with final rankings:
2016 - 10-4 (16/16)
2017 - 9-4 (25/24)
2018 - 6-7
I want to highlight that the 3 straight top 6 seasons you mentioned for Dantonio started in his 7th season. At this point in their tenures, things look pretty damn similar. I am absolutely not saying Fuente will go on to have the same level of success because it's far from guaranteed- and I completely agree we need to improve quite a bit in the next couple seasons- but I find it hard to justify that it's time to throw in the towel on Fuente.
Coach Fuente was hired to combine his Offensive acumen with Bud's Defensive ("Welcome to Blacksburg. They do Defense here." - easily one of my favorite VT commentary lines ever) expertise to elevate VT football overall. Win the games we should, is an expectation of every coach, and high level recruitment is a must to compete at a high level (from a depth perspective alone). If you don't have high expectations, what's the point?
2019 is sink-or-swim time for the program and staff.
Not with Fuente's buyout it isn't.
Like it or not, we're stuck with him for a while.
yeah it is. if we go 6-6. I guarantee he gets fired. We will operate up to our necks in the red if that's what it takes. Whit isn't going 6-6 again. Anything less than 9-3 is a catastrophic failure.
can we cool it with the hyperbole? "catastrophic failure" is FSU going 5-7, is Oregon going 4-8, is UNC going 3-9 and 2-9 in back to back year..... "catastrophic failure" for an 8-4 season is ridiculous. I get that we want to judge by W-L, it makes sense, it's what counts at the end of the day... but context of the W-L could be (note the emphasis) just as important as the record itself
If the 6-6 includes another loss to ODU, yes you are correct. If the 6 losses are close to BC, ND, GT, etc. then he survives one more year. But another ODU loss, and he is gone.
Agree. The question is - is he gone at the end of the season, or the day after the ODU game? Is that the opportunity to give Bud the reins and see what he can do as the HC?
I would think Whit let's him coach out the season. although the bud trial could perhaps rally the troops.
I think somewhere in the list of alternatives there is a Braine-Beamer scenario where Fu isn't fired but there are AD-ordered staff changes.
It really is all dependent on how this season goes. Like you said if he can get back to 10-ish wins and legitimately competing for the Coastal/staying ranked throughout the year he could easily flip some talent late in the recruiting game and save face heading into next year.
But if the defense doesn't improve tremendously from last year and we wind up at .500 again, that combined with the terrible class pretty much sinks this program in the near future.
You could argue we're in the worst P5 division. I feel like we should compete for our division every year - Coming in 1st or 2nd far more often than not (3rd maybe once every 6-8 yrs).
I think our recruiting classes should have average player ratings in the .89-.90 range if we want to get serious about consistent NY6 bowls or Playoffs.
9 wins. An improved defense. The losses - close. Exciting football. A top 25 ranking at some point in the season. A 1,000 yard rusher and/or receiver. A third team AllAmerican at some position- most likely receiver or offensive line. A 2nd round draft pick.
I would say that this is a slightly too optimistic take on the state and likely future of the program, but then again, VT fans could probably use a little optimism right now.
My own personal hopes/goals for this season are a little less ambitious:
--Win 8 or more games, with no disastrous results like the ODU loss
--Show substantial improvement during the season like you would hope to see from a young team
--Stop the bleeding from what seems to be players not particularly wanting to be in Blacksburg (recruits and current players)
If we can check all those boxes, then there is reason to be hopeful for the future.
I like this post.
I agree with it too. I think 9+ wins is both attainable and reasonable to expect. I hope this program proves the doubters wrong! (I fully admit that I have been one of those doubters)
GO Hokies and beat the life out of BC!
It's pretty simple for me -9 wins and a top 30 recruiting class. Don't lose to UVA.
You could argue that Fuente hasn't yet won a game that he wasn't supposed to. He's 1-1 in marquee toss-up games, WVU and Tenn, and he's gotten flattened by ND and Clemson. It'd be nice to win a game that we aren't supposed to - good teams find a way to do that, ya know, to balance out the inexplicable Syracuse and ODU type losses.
Fewer than 9 wins, or cratering in 2021 recruiting, and I don't think you can justify his direction of the program. Then again, with the currently ranked 90th class on 247, and the likelihood that Tech doesn't sign a top 20 in-state player, why again are we supposed to believe that next year's recruiting is going to be much improved?
Fuente's also won @ND (granted, in a very down year for them) and come within a score against Clemson in the ACCCG. Where does the win @FSU stand in that mix? I don't think we were "supposed" to win that game, but your point stands and I think it's a good one. If we're not a CFB heavyweight yet, we at least need to punch above our current weight to legitimize where we're going.
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If I'm reading this right they've won the following games as underdogs under Fuente- 2016 ND, 2018 FSU, 2018 Duke and 2018 UVA. 2016 ND and 2018 FSU both missed bowls.
I'm with you on that, but thats been the life of a tech fan for a really long time unfortunately. I want to get back to winning the games we're suppossed to win. Eliminating those kick in the groin losses like ODU last year, Syracuse a couple years ago, and Georgia Tech every year. Then we can worry about getting over that hill we can never seem to climb and winning the games we aren't supposed to.
How about cratering the 2020 recruiting class?
Well, our class is 69th(?) when ordered by average player ranking, and that's concerning. If we were top 40 due to quantity of recruits, but had a handful of of 4-stars, I'd be satisfied. But it's not. We have five 3-star kids.
I agree with your reasonable and grounded expectations, but there's reasonable concern that current actions are jeopardizing our reasonable and grounded expectations.
Now, reasonable concern DOES NOT justify a coaching change (yet). However, the program does need some good press.
IMHO, 9+ wins, in the mix for the costal title and a W against UVa is the floor for Virginia Tech football.
I think he might be able to keep the bowl streak alive but that might be asking a lot since we have two lower tier schools on the schedule and only one counts towards eligibility...
I think we should re-frame this as what are reasonable expectations for Virginia Tech Football, not necessarily Fuente.
Goals/Expectations:
1. Compete for the Coastal on a regular basis. Lets say 8 out of 10 years, we should be in the race to win the Coastal late in November.
2. Play for the ACC Championship several times each decade. In my head, I think 3-4 appearances per decade is reasonable.
3. Win the ACC at least twice per decade. I used to think this was higher, but given our current state, I think this is more realistic.
4. Be in the playoff discussion once per decade.
I probably have this baseline because I was a student from 2004-2009 and lived in Blacksburg through the 2011 season when we were winning 10 games per year. So are these realistic goals/expectation for VT?
You're basically describing Wisconsin (which I think is a realistic albeit somewhat lofty standard for Virginia Tech football).
Which would be a great program to emulate. With our overall budget and limiting recruiting factors, this is a pretty realistic list and one that teams without the name Clemson, FSU, and Miami would DIE to have.
Uh, Wisconsin has the 15 highest grossing athletic program. Almost double our's.
Sounds fair to me, but what is "in the race?"
Do you mean it comes down to the final game? Final 2 games? Tie-breaker?
I left it nebulous on purpose. I don't know what the right number is. I just think we should be competing for the Coastal pretty much every year.
I get that the 2020 recruiting class is putting everyone into hysterical fits, but the past few years have us still roughly in this realm, don't they? We were in the ACC title game, and right at knocking Clemson off in 2016, and were competitive in the Coastal in 2017. Last year was a bad year, but if we can put up 9-10 wins this coming year, which all but the most doom and gloom here seem to think is reasonable, that's another "compete for the coastal" year, with the real possibility of going to the ACCCG. We have a young team that can absorb a bad recruiting year without tanking our entire future, so if we can make that jump next year, no reason to believe that we can't stay on a decent recruiting track.
For the record, before everyone flips, obviously a class like the 2020 one right now is not going to allow us to sustain success. But, it also doesn't seem like the death knell that everyone seems to want to cast it as.
Well said. I agree
I take pride that VT has shown loyalty to coaches and coaches in turn have shown loyalty to VT. One down season should not define a career. I know the haters will argue that there are few bright spots in JF's brief tenure, but I'd rather be supportive of a coach for 7 - 10 years and see what happens. That said, I feel 9+ wins is completely reasonable with our schedule this year. The kids on the team seem to be very positive, some preseason polls have the Hokies in the top 25. The comeback vs Arkansas was pretty darn exciting, and something I don't think we would have seen under Beamer. Everyone wanted Fuente, and we got him. After his first and second season, we were worried about another team poaching him. I hope the administration, the boosters, and the fans give the man a few more years before passing judgement. Less than 9 wins this season and I will be disappointed, but not ready to start a possibly endless coaching turnover. Miss a bowl game this season, or a second losing season in a row, and the seat should be hot, but there shouldn't even be a consideration of ending his contract until after the 2021 season at the earliest. In essence, I still believe in Coach Fuente.
Make watching VT football fun again.
Deleted.
I am happily mistaken on Fuente's Twitter. Had no idea I was getting updates on a fake account. Being old will get after yah. Apologies.
Example? Or is this /s?
Yeah Fuente's actual account isn't the most active and he certainly is not tweeting every time a recruit commits elsewhere or opens up their recruitment. This person has no idea what they are talking about.
I saw this last night and just rolled my eyes. This is why forums like this drive me nuts. People just make stuff up and then 10 other forum-people will take it as gospel. I can hardly even stomach TKP lately. It's like I'm on a Cosmo forum with all this gossip and estrogen.
I think it's more likely that this person is following the wrong account and just thinks it's coach Fuente. Maybe @FuenteFootball or similar.
Which is still a problem - that a satire/fan account is being confused with the head coach's actual account and claiming the coach is saying these things which is obviously not him.
Which would make the person running that account a detrimental asshole.
Coach Fuente is verified as @CoachFuente. If someone mistakes another account for him that's on the individual.
My bad. Didn't even cross my mind that I was seeing tweets from a fake Fuente account, but, alas the internet. I'd downvote myself if I could...or can I?
What? He has the most milquetoast, company man-style Twitter feed in the world.
I said it at the beginning. VT is a 5 to 6 year project. Like it or not, that's how much time it will take.
To me our whole trajectory so far makes sense. We had immediate success with quality players to start. We regressed and then again as those quality players left and then those players, some quality others not, left early due to non-football reasons. Culture change requires a change. So we dip. Makes sense to me. I don't like it but it makes sense.
Now we have, so far, our worst recruiting year in forever... Don't like it, but makes sense. Why? Because now Fuente has his scheme guys and must prove he can win. If he does then recruiting will follow. This has been the plan from the beginning.
The wrench in the works however is how poor the Defense is playing. We had abnormal attrition, poor coaching, a DC that was likely distracted for personal reason (assuming as it would distract me too) and have not recruited as well as anyone probably expected.
So now we are on the back 9 of that 5 to 6 year plan and we need to start winning, because that's when his guys start to play his scheme. That's when his system is fully known from players coming as freshman to just now being upperclassmen and starters.
I am a big believer in Fuente and Bud. I think the defense is not in a condition he was expecting when Bud was retained but here we are. You play the cards you are dealt. But it doesn't change the overall plan. Now is where we must see the upward trajectory. It's a layup of a season at precisely the time we need it. Need to take advantage and use it as leverage for recruiting next season.
5 to 6 years. The plan all along.
This is a great summation of how I feel as well. Additionally, there needs to be a little bit of patience for Fuente because he's the guy that followed THE GUY. That in itself is a challenge that really no one has really been able to overcome. The closest was Jimbo Fisher at FSU, but even that fell apart in short order.
Two things that will help convince me that VT is on the rise again. 1st is a decent season this year. Decent to me is 9-10 wins with this schedule. 2nd is that the future good/great QB is on this roster. Good/great QB to me is a QB that will win you games you shouldn't win, and a guy who will eventually be drafted in the first 4-5 rounds of the draft when he's done.
The type of jump that most fans want for this program is going to have to be with elevated play at QB.
I'm not as optimistic about simply winning and the recruits will follow. That never worked for VT, even in its heyday. Some people are just better recruiters than others and can connect with 17-18 year old top athletes. This is not a recruiting-oriented staff and I don't think will suddenly become one. Scheme may win you 2 or 3 out of 10, but better talent will always prevail. I'm not sure we are going to scheme our way back into the national conversation in today's football climate. There isn't much out there that hasn't been seen. It comes down to recruiting talent that executes your scheme and is good enough to still make plays when your scheme breaks down, as well as good coaching instincts and calling the right plays at the appropriate times.
This is year 4, next year is year 5. I think a lot of people preaching patience and the 5-6 year timeline are very confident that we win big this upcoming season. My question is, if we still continue to struggle on the field (still legitimate questions on D, can the offense become consistent and develop a running game) against this schedule, and with recruiting at an all-time low and simply waiting on the wins as you say, how is year 5 going to dig ourselves out of that hole? I have a sneaking suspicion that turns into 6-7 years in that case. Or whenever VT can afford the buyout.
In regards to winning not producing recruits I think our history is not actually a good indicator. When we peaked there was no increased push to grab the opportunity Beamer and Bud made for VT. Weaver was confident that his game plan got us there and will keep us there. That meant not spending on anything. That set VT back more than anything IMO. We should have seized that moment because we had the nation believing in us. That "if ain't broke don't fix it" mentality unfortunately led to Beamer placing Stiney at OC to further set VT back. Our recruiting momentum was chop blocked more severely than a DL in a game against Chinballs.
So I think if Fuente does start winning, especially with his type of offense that produces numbers, recruiting will follow.
For your 2nd point, if we have another down year this year its still a 5 to 6 year plan. But the preasure will be on Whit to decide if that plan is 5 years or 6 years, but that's why he gets paid.
Fair points. If anything, Whit has shown he is willing to spend or overspend now if it means greater returns down the road. I've thought much of the work he has done so far has been simply catching up with the competition and getting us out of the excessive frugality and stagnation of the previous administration. Which was definitely much needed.
Fuente was the most important hire of Whit's career to date. I'm sure he will give this all the time he thinks it needs, but I'm sure he will also be careful to not let a bad thing fester on too long if it comes at the expense of the athletics department. This year will be a critical indicator of where we stand as a football program and where we go next.
Yep. Absolutely agree
I want postgame rides back down the mountain to not be absolutely miserable.
Aside from expectations, what would our record have been last season
if the defense was a little better?
GT and ODU would have been wins. BC likely would have been a win. Pitt never would have put up ~500 yards rushing. So, for fun I'll say we would have won 3 more games and been more competitive in 2 others. Still think ND would have won, but with a standard Bud Foster defense, we likely could have beaten Pitt as well.
Yeah, when I said a little better I meant one of our standard defenses.
Well all 6 regular season losses were by double digits. Five of those were by 14 or more points. Four of those were by 21 or more points. Only the Cincinnati bowl game (35-31) was a close loss.
So the defense would have had to be a LOT better to have impacted any loss but the bowl game.
I think Cincinnati and ODU would almost certainly have been wins with better defense. GT and BC are the next strongest possibilities imo
Actually, I think that's fair. The final score of the ODU loss made it seem worse, and I'm reasonably certain we would have beaten Cincinnati also with just a little better defense.
So that would have left us at 6-5 regular season (we wouldn't have played Marshall for that 12th game) and 7-5 after the bowl.
How much better are we talking? The defense went from elite to dismal in only one season. If we paired the 2018 offense with the 2017 defense I think we're talking 11 wins. Seriously.
I just want to be excessively excited about the program again. I want to feel what I felt as a student 2002-2007. I remember telling family back home about how good we were and how this is the year. And I truly believed it a time or two. Even though a lot of it has to do with being an adult now and caring about other things way more than football, it'd still be nice to get that excitement back in the program and hear the talk on the national stage about the team. I hope it returns, but man do I seem to be feeling more and more apathetic every year...
In terms of Recruiting: How many slots do we have for the 2020 Class?
We need to pick up more 4-star guys to compete with the big boys.
Not sure what is going on in the mind of Fuente, but all the coach speak is not exactly coming across with confidence. Fans will boycott, giving the program a bad name. Frustrations from the fans will not be good for the program. Our coaches need to do a better job with what we have and need to get better talent through recruiting.
I was a student from 2004-2009. What a time it was to be a Hokie!
I was a student from 2010-2014, so got to see both ends of the spectrum. Just recently moved back to Christiansburg and plan on getting season's tickets every year I am here. Realistically would love to see us compete for the Coastal division every year, one of the easiest divisions in P5. Be in the hunt for the playoff every 7-10 years. Beat UVA every single year, until I die.
Recruiting wise, take a step forward from Fuente's first couple years and be right around the 20 mark. Stay as close as possible to Clemson, Miami, FSU (reality is we will never out recruit them on a yearly basis).
That being said, I am actually excited for this year. First time having season tickets since I was a student. Really think with the schedule we can have a decent year and maybe get a shot to surprise everyone in the ACCCG.
It used to be that this team played best with a chip on its shoulders..only time will tell if that still applies. Go Hokies!
https://247sports.com/college/virginia-tech/Article/NCAA-Top-25-Virginia...
#21! Just came out today... Interesting
I don't think there's any realistic preseason metric that should be putting us as the only ACC team ranked besides Clemson. There are definitely teams in either division that look better than us until proven otherwise.
I certainly think Winning is the first part of the formula, but I really think the more important factor is beating teams that matter (i.e. Miami, Clemson, ND, ect.). This year, for example, if we go 9-3 but aren't competitive against ND or Miami, then what changes about the perception of the program?
If you look at Fuente's on-field resume you could make a strong argument that his most impressive result was the loss to Clemson in ACCCG 2016. Other than that, we have really not been competitive against the better teams on our schedule. Not trying to bash us, but the truth isn't convenient sometimes.
Yes, cue the "Nitpick Squad" to point out that we led TN(16), ND (18), and MIA(18) in games, but the end result of none of those games was a competitive score.
Until (and unless) we start winning some of these games, the perception of the current state of VT Football won't change.
Unfortunately, getting more impact players on the Roster and filling obvious gaps (DL, CB, RB) is part-in-parcel to winning these games, IMHO.
And to this point, the current staff has not proven enough for many of us to believe that they have the ability to make this happen. What they are selling on the Recruiting Trail isn't finding buyers. And you can use the "they are fickle 16-17 year old" argument, but when those 16-17 y/o are repeatedly and recurrently not committing to what you are selling, the problem probably isn't them....its you. The overt concern is that 2020 is only the beginning of more recruiting disappointments to come. I'd love to point at this or that or another reason to be more optimistic, but there isn't a whole lot right now.
Fuente beat West Virginia when they were decent, and had a comeback bowl victory against Arkansas.
Those were pretty decent results.
Then there was that win against FSU...
But yeah, we do need to beat Miami and Notre Dame. Gotta keep beating UNC and Virginia as well. Pitt and GT are also on the "we gotta beat 'em every year" list.
In more specifics, we need to beat some top-20 teams, teams that start the year ranked and end the year ranked.
WVU went a disappointing 7-6 in 2017; Holgorsen was largely a lame-duck coach last year.
ARK also went 7-6 the year we beat them; Bielema was fired one year later.
ND had a losing record in 2016 when we beat them in South Bend; same with FSU last year--that win looked great until a week later when they almost lost to Samford.
In the next 2 years we have ND, Miami(x2), PSU on the schedule--winning those games makes a difference in the perception of the program. Winning the Coastal and being competitive/beating Clemson in a potential ACCCG makes a difference. Those are the games recruits watch; those are where you prove you belong.
WVU was a good team in 2017. They were mostly ranked until November of that year when they suffered a three-game losing streak when their star quarterback was out with an injury. We played them WITH that quarterback.
With respect to the Arkansas game, we were getting crushed at halftime, and then had the biggest comeback in VT football in the Belk Bowl.
So your treatment of them is a bit revisionist. Those were both quality wins.
Successful teams don't fire their coaches a year later...they just don't.
It is more "revisionist" to go back and say, "well they were a good team when we played them", --until they weren't and barely broke .500. WVU was cupcake-soft on D and ARK was playing without their best player and absolutely dominated us for 30 min.
Lets put it this way...you are a 4* Recruit with coaches calling, texting, visiting all the time...are you going to be impressed by a coach in your living room telling you he is going to beat teams that end up unranked and play in Mid-Tier Bowl Games?
An OOC win against almost any P5 opponent can be argued as a "quality win," what I am trying to point to is what sorts of wins we need to change the current perception of VT Football....that perception being a large part of why our 2020 Class has been so underwhelming.
FSU was a dumpster fire last year. Terrible. Yes, we didn't know it at the time, but that was a bad football team. WVU was decent, Arky was decent. His best win as VT coach might be UVA last year. That team was playing well with some momentum, and went on to dust South Car in their bowl.
Thank you. I hate when we miss a guy and people say "well he's a 17 year old, they're hard to predict" as if other programs aren't also recruiting the same age players..