Chris "The Bear" Fallica tweeted out some interesting trends related to the Preseason AP Top 25 the other day. I thought this would make for a good TKP discussion ahead of Weak Zero:
Every year since 02 there has been at least 1 team in the AP PS Top 10 that was unranked at the end of the season. Of the 41 PS Top 10 teams since 98 to finish NR, 12 were ranked in the PS Top 4, including Wisconsin last year. Miami, Auburn also PS Top 10 LY and finished NR.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) August 12, 2019
In 25 of last 26 years – '11 the exception - at least 1 team that wasn't in the PS Top 25 finished in the Top 10. Last year there were 2 – Florida and Wash St. Wazzu was the 9th team in the last 6 years that did not receive a single point in the PS poll and finished in the Top 10— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) August 12, 2019
AP Top 25
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Others Receiving Votes:
Missouri 117; Army 94; Mississippi State 97; Miami 70; Northwestern 63; TCU 57; Virginia 44; Boise State 38; Cincinnati 16; South Carolina 15; Virginia Tech 12; Fresno State 8; Utah State 8; Minnesota 7; Memphis 6; Appalachian State 5; West Virginia 3; Oklahoma State 3; Arizona State 3; Arizona 1; Southern California 1.
So TKP, who you got?
1) Who is the team in the Preseason Top 10 that will finish the year unranked?
2) Who is the team outside the Preseason Top 25 that will finish the year in the Top 10?
Comments
1) Auburn, not because I think they're bad...but JESUS CHRIST that schedule is brutal. I see at least 4 games I say are almost for sure losses and 2 more that are probably losses...Auburn's either going 7-5 or 11-1/12-0 and there's no in between.
Edit: to better answer the edited question of team in the top 10 that'll fall out, LSU for the same reasons, brutal schedule
2) *takes O&M glasses off* Appy State. There's a strong change they go 12-0 or at the VERY least 11-1. They play 2 P5 schools, UNC and USCe. I predict UCF taking a step back this year and Appy state could be going to a NY6 bowl as the highest ranked G5 school...
Auburn's schedule is BRUTAL, no question about it. The funny thing is LSU (@Texas, FLorida, Auburn, @Bama, A&M) and A&M (@Clemson, Auburn, Bama, @UGA, @LSU) are just about as hard.
SEC could really beat up on itself at the top this year (A&M, Auburn, LSU, UGA, Bama, Florida all play some subset of each other).
Auburn is already starting off the season with true freshman Bo Nix beating out projected starter Joey Gatewood at QB. This could get ugly quick.
Auburn and A&M probably won't end the year ranked. Their schedules are so brutal
A better question is which team in the preseason top 10 will finish unranked. There are probably ~5 teams in the preseason top 25 that will finish unranked.
Ah that's what i meant to type - I corrected it, thanks Fence!
1) If I HAD to bet on one team to be unranked at the end of the year, has to be LSU, right? They play Bama, A&M, Auburn, Texas, & Florida. Just based on say an 8-4 record, (lose 3 of 5 listed, plus a random road game drop) they could easily be unranked, despite being a very, very good team (sorta similar to Auburn last year who destroyed Purdue in the bowl game). IF it were straight "who shouldn't be top-10" I'd have to go Texas though.
2) Again, if I HAD to bet on one team, I'd have to go VT just based on schedule. Say VT loses to Norte Dame and Miami close, but wins the rest? They'd be 10-3 in a P5 conference after losing the ACCCG to Clemson, then you'd have to hope for a miracle bowl game victory to move to 11-3. It won't be a good 11-3, but it'll be double digit wins in a P5, which is typically enough to get top-10 attention. Of course, it'll proly be Miami and their stupid turnover chain.
EDIT: This was all based on top-10 teams, not top-25.
With the SEC bias, 8-4 is still a top 10 team though, right?
We can joke about this all we want, but an 8-4 A&M (losses to UGA, Bama, Clemson, and LSU, for example) might still be able to beat the brakes off a team with more wins from a weaker schedule. A&M quite literally did this last year when they beat 9-3 NC State like an FCS team, 52-13. Team quality is not necessarily determined by number of losses because college schedules are not remotely equal in difficulty. This is why something like S&P is much better for ranking teams based on their actual quality, independent of W/L results being the be all, end all.
and this is why college football pisses me off a little more each year
Chris and liking S&P, name a more iconic duo, I'll wait
Also I'm just messing with you as I completely agree with your take on it
Chris and SEC Supremacy /ducks
If LSU goes 8-4, they will be ranked in the top 25.
I assume your first question is supposed to say "Top 10" as many teams from the Top 25 will end the season outside. I'll say
1. Michigan
2. Army
1) Auburn or Syracuse
2)
I'm not great with projections, but this looks like fun.
1) Who is the team in the Preseason Top
2510 that will finish the year unranked?Ohio State is long past overdue for a down year. Drama, new coach; I could see that happening this season.
2) Who is the team outside the Preseason Top 25 that will finish the year in the Top 10?
This phenomenon is surely due to non-P5 teams most years, but I'm not sure who to guess into this spot (Cincy, Memphis, Utah State, UCF, Boise, etc...). I'll go with Mizzou's favorable schedule.
Ohio State will fall back. Meyer is an elite coach, probably second only to Saban, and he is not there anymore. Syracuse could finish ranked with a late season push to 7-5, but they are not that good. Texas and ND are also overrated, although Texas doesn't have to absorb a beatdown from powerhouse Maryland to open the season this year. Texas AM is underrated.
Who falls out of the top 10 to unranked? I say Florida is the most likely.
Not ranked and in the final top 10? USC Trojans
USC is trying to go with the spread this season. I think they crash and burn and Clay Helton is gone by...midway thru the season. #LukeWarmTakeCity
This post will serve a cool time capsule at the end of the year to see how crazy the season was.
1) Who is the team in the Preseason Top 10 that will finish the year unranked?
Notre Dame
2) Who is the team outside the Preseason Top 25 that will finish the year in the Top 10?
Mississippi State
Texas going to go down, they are always overrated. App State going to rise maybe?
1. Texas
2. VT
Hard agree. Texas has lost soooo much returning production, I don't see how they can finish top 10.
VT just because of the schedule, and hoping that both the offense and defense take a bump up.
Do you think winning against a weak schedule is enough to get us in the top 10? Thinking we may have to go undefeated, or drop a lone loss to an undefeated Notre Dame team in the regular season to finish in the top 10... not saying it's not possible, but that'd be a heck of a turnaround for us.
I am being super homer optimistic, I'm not totally convinced yet, but with our schedule I would't be shocked to see us go 11-1 or 10-2 (loss to ND and/or Miami). Then as long as we don't get embarrassed by Clemson in the ACCCG, I could definitely see us finishing up top 10
Still though, the Hokies would have to cover a lot of ground to get in the Top 10 this year. With this schedule, they could be 6-1 and possibly still be unranked.
They would get criticized for the easy schedule and rightfully so but they would 100% be ranked at 6-1 just by virtue of how few teams would have a record that good. I think people forget how quickly most teams put up 2 losses each year.
Re: Texas, FYI, the question is which top 10 team will finish unranked, not top 10.
ND will fall out of the AP partly because we beat them, and we will creep in, largely because we beat them.
1. Texas. I have zero faith in them. Just a feeling.
1b. In the top 25 now...but not at end of year, with a shot at missing a bowl game: Central Florida. Afraid the turnover won't be pretty there...
2. TCU is my first thought, but gotta go VT.
1. Texas doesn't get the boost for being in the SEC.
2. Hokies
Pre-season Top 10, not ranked end of season: Texas. Possibly a close 2nd, anOSU.
Unranked pre-Season, ranked end of season: Cincinnati
I'm not sure I buy Cinci being a Top 10 team at the end of the year - I think their schedule alone would keep them out of the Top 10, unless they have a way to beat - and really convincingly beat - Ohio State in week 2, and go undefeated.
1) Texas, Michigan, Florida all seem suspect to me. I doubt florida will drop out but I don't see them as the 8th beat team. Michigan plays a lot of teams that can beat them up, but Texas, well they suck so they are my #1 pick to suck.
2) Not sold on App St with new coach, if its power 5 then ACC would be my guess as it's a super weak conference so 11-1 could happen for some one like NC State (not that I think it will).
1. Florida
2. Miss St
1. Texas
2. (Based on nothing but gut feeling) Colorado
1) Ohio State out because F them, overdue
2) Hokies in because I've been drinking
via GIPHY
1.)Michigan(It was a catch)
2.) going out on a limb but Army they have an easy schedule after they annihilate Michigan and go on a tear like they did last season and end up in the top ten by the end of the year. They came damn close to beating oklahoma last season so I think they get the upset on michigan this year.
With everyone 7/8 games into the season, felt like a good time to bring this back to see how your thoughts faired over the past 2 months.
Summary so far:
7 of the preseason top ten are still there. The only ones that have fallen:
- Michigan to #14 from #7
- Notre Dame to #16 from #9
- Texas to RV from #10
The teams that have replaced them:
- Penn State to #5 from #15
- Oregon to #7 from #11
- Utah to #9 from #14
Teams currently ranked that started unranked:
- #12 Baylor (0 votes in preseason)
- #13 Minnesota (7 votes)
- #15 SMU (0 votes)
- #17 Cincinnati (16 votes)
- #20 Appalachian State (5 votes)
- #21 Boise State (38 votes)
- #22 Kansas State (0 votes)
- #23 Wake Forest (0 votes)
- #24 Memphis (6 votes)
- #25 San Diego State (0 votes)
Baylor is playing lights out right now. They're fun to watch with Brewer at the helm.
Will be interesting to see how November shapes up. 5 weeks of some heavy hitting football left that could very much shake up the college football playoff scene.
So with respect of the thread, the teams that are in a position to do make the following moves are:
1) Who is the team in the Preseason Top 10 that will finish the year unranked?
- Texas
2) Who is the team outside the Preseason Top 25 that will finish the year in the Top 10?
- Baylor
Still over a month before this becomes final, but Texas looks all but a lock at filling the #1 spot.
For the first time since 2002, a team ranked in the AP Preseason Top 10 failed to fall out of the Top 25 in the final poll. Texas almost made it happened but came in at the #25 spot this year.
2019 will mark just the 26th time in the last 27 seasons that a team finished in the AP Final Top 10 that started the season not ranked in the AP Preseason Top 25. Minnesota helped us out there this year, barely making it in the Top 10 after starting the year unranked.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. Florida
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Minnesota
11. Wisconsin
12. Notre Dame
13. Baylor
14. Auburn
15. Iowa
16. Utah
17. Memphis
18. Michigan
19. Appalachian State
20. Navy
21. Cincinnati
22. Air Force
23. Boise State
24. UCF
25. Texas
Others receiving votes:
Texas A&M 54, Florida Atlantic 46, Washington 39, Virginia 28, USC 16, San Diego State 13, Arizona State 12, SMU 10, Tennessee 8, California 6, Louisiana Tech 2, Kentucky 2, Kansas State 2, Louisiana-Lafayette 2