As we all have learned, The Portal giveth and The Portal taketh away.
Hokie Nation has felt the sting of a transfer at an all too frequent a pace.
Gone are Josh Jackson, Sean Savoy, Eric Kumah, Sam Denmark, DeJuan Ellis, Chris Cunningham, and D'Andre Plantin from the offense, as are Trevon Hill, Darius Fullwood, Nate Procter, Rico Kearney, DJ Crossen, and Bryce Watts.
New are Braxton Burmeister and Brock Hoffman. However, I feel that we'd be remiss in not counting Damon Hazelton, Ryan Willis, Jeremy Webb, Amare Barno, Brion Murray, Deshawn Crawford, and Jaden Cunningham in the mix, as I believe they would not have been pursued if the transfers out were not considered.
So, statistically what have we lost/gained:
QB:
Lost: Jackson 3971 total yards, 32 TDs, 10 INTs, in 16 games played
Gained: Willis 3070 total yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTS, in 12 games played
Based on the bodies of work, I would consider this "switch" to be a wash. Four more games by Willis would project to a very similar statline, and adding in a guy like Burmeister might even tip this to a net plus.
WR/TE:
Lost: Kumah, Savoy, Denmark, Ellis, Cunningham 1971 combined yards, 25 combined TDs, 86 combined games
Gained: Hazelton 806 yards, 8 TDs, 13 games played.
Hazelton has passed the combined production of Savoy and Denmark in half the games. Given that he has at least 1 year left, possibly two, I can easily see him eclipsing the combined output of the lot that we lost, even factoring in the depth at the position as it currently stands. Gonna give a net plus, as Hazelton is able to replicate the production of four players, freeing up four other spots on the roster for production.
OL:
Lost: Plantin
Gained: Hoffman
Both would have been battling for, if not winning outright, starting jobs this year (especially if the NCAA gained a brain and actually let us know Hoffman's status for the upcoming season). Net wash.
DL:
Lost: Hill, Fullwood, Procter 97 tackles, 20 TFL, 11.5 sacks 47 games played
Gained; Crawford, Cunningham 0 games played
This is a little difficult to assess, as I don't know if any DT combo at VT ever achieved the stats listed above, but the pair do have 48+ games remaining in their VT careers, so it will be possible to look back to see how this plays out. Net minus just for lack of data
LB:
Lost: Kearney 35 tackles, 2 TFL, FR in 10 games
Gained: Barno no games played
Also difficult to assess, but I feel that given Barno's athleticism, I would expect him to get better than 3.5 tackles per game throughout his career. Net neutral
DB:
Lost: Crossen, Watts: 29 tackles, 1 INT 25 games played
Gained: Webb, Murray: no games played
If Webb had been able to play last year, Watt's numbers would have been dramatically reduced. Murray being able to play the NB definitely helps out the case for the newcomers being able to produce at a higher clip. Net plus
2.5 position groupings effected by the portal/transfers that have been net positives
2.5 position groupings effected by the portal/transfers that have been net neutral
1 position grouping that is a net minus, granted in the grouping that we are thinnest and most concerned of those who have been affected by transfers.
EDIT: Added Ellis to WR
Comments
Great perspective! This kind of sums up how Fuente does things. Not flashy, doesn't try to defend his position, but when objectively analyzed, the moves make sense.
This way we talk about it is flawed. They aren't "moves" by Fuente in the same way you would talk about free agent losses/acquisitions in a pro league. I think what it shows is that we aren't floundering in this new system the way that some folks think we are. We're suffering standard attrition, and we're roughly cancelling it out. The fact that some established dudes are leaving speaks well, in general, to the quality of the younger players that we're bringing in.
All of this being said with the added bonus of being +3 on scholarships. I think the biggest part of this is the WRs. We gain those three scholarships to free up elsewhere and we have arguably the best stable of WRs in the ACC even after losing those 4 guys.
EDIT: Great analysis by the way, thanks for putting the numbers together and into prospective for all of us to see.
Lost: Kearney 35 tackles, 2 TFL, FR in 10 games
Gained: Barno no games played
Also difficult to assess, but I feel that given Barno's athleticism, I would expect him to get better than 3.5 tackles per game throughout his career. Net neutral
not to nit pick but.... Kearneys avg tackle per game is a little skewed. 17 of those tackles came on special teams and mop up duty. in his one start againt BC he had 18 tackles. had he hung around VT and became a started I'm not sure if barno would be able to match his production in the long haul. but Kearney and ashby are the same year so Kearney also may have never broken the rotation either.
I don't really count Hill or Crossen as transfers. That implies they left of their own choosing.
They were kicked off the team. Sure, they're lost bodies and former production. But, they sure as hell shouldn't count against us if someone is trying to paint a picture of people leaving VT of their own volition.
yup.. they are diciplinary losses not portal / transfer losses.
So we lost folks to the portal, but we "gained" folks not from the portal, but we are going to pretend they were. Interesting argument.
We would not have "gained" most of those people without the others leaving through the portal. It is a pretty logically thought out point. Not an argument. People leave. We go out and find others that want to be here. Either through the portal or otherwise.
Ok, so the thread title is poorly worded. Carry on
Because that never happens on TKP?!?! LOL /s
I'm with you on this one (but pointing out a poorly worded title is a little ironic coming from you, lol) - it's a transfer analysis more than it is a "portal" analysis. I don't believe grad transfers or JUCO players go the portal route, and that's the majority of the players we've brought in. And a bunch of the players in listed here are from before the portal (Willis, Haze being notables).
If we're restricting it to simply an analysis of the portal itself, we have more players out than in and it's not close. Granted, not many were contributors or in the mix for the 2-deep, but it's a little silly to compare JJ with Willis rather than Burmeister if we're talking strictly Portal transfers
Josh Jackson (Graduate Transfer), Sean Savoy,Eric Kumah (Graduate Transfer),Sam Denmark (Graduate Transfer), DeJuan Ellis,Chris Cunningham (graduate transfer), andD'Andre Plantin (Graduate Transfer)from the offense, as areTrevon Hill (kicked off team),Darius Fullwood (Graduate Transfer), Nate Procter, Rico Kearney,DJ Crossen (Kicked off Team), and Bryce Watts.So.... we have 5 people in the portal who aren't going the more traditional grad transfer/juco/booted from team route.
I guess grad transfers do enter the portal after all, not sure where I got the impression that they didn't. I also forgot Kumah was a grad transfer -- at least one early report said he'd need a waiver or sit a year.
even so, five out and two in by my count -- burmeister and hoffman.
Ok, pot.