The following is from an interesting analysis by Bill Connelly.
Instead of simulating all remaining impact games 1,000 or 2,000 times, I took a different approach this time. There are 1,024 potential scenarios regarding the 10 remaining games these teams play. I found odds and a winner for each scenario. Here are the results.
- Virginia Tech 87.1% (414 of 1,024 scenarios)
- Duke 9.4% (86 of 1,024 scenarios)
- Miami 2.2% (132 of 1,024 scenarios)
- Georgia Tech 1.2% (392 of 1,024 scenarios)
The entire article is worth the read: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/13/5099144/acc-coastal-....
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Comments
Pretty interesting. Like how its broken down. Thanks Joe.
Out of curiosity, how does 86 of 1024 = 9.4%, or 392 of 1024 = 1.2%? Is this new math?
I think each scenario has a % chance to occur. So their weighted. those 392 scenarios for GT require a lot of upsets and stuff (us losing to UVA and the like), whereas ours have more likely outcomes (us not losing to UVA).
Okay, so the percentages really have nothing to do with the number of scenarios, but more the likelihood of the scenarios occurring.
Like odds versus probability...
Well I am 99% damn sure gonna be watching Tech, and then Miami on Saturday. 99% because there is a 1% chance I may get hit by a sharknado however.
Global warming has caused an increase in sharknado activity. There were no recorded instances of sharknados before this year. Now we have 1 on record.
That's the only evidence I have to offer.
Those statistics...they'll get after ya!
As well as Jason From Arlington- well, now he's just outta whack.
We gotta take care of business, and have someone take Duke out at the knees
They already played and were beat by GT though.
I see what you did there
I'll admit, ...it took me a minute to catch that, ...I actually had to come back to upvote.
While I appreciate the VT hype, I think it's underplaying Duke a little bit. Games are played one game at a time, not 3 at a time. The fact that Duke is in toss-up games with Miami and UNC (40% chance of winning), and should win the Wake game (75%) is enough to suggest that it's not over.
I don't know the generator he used, but if Clemson and Duke win Saturday, the percentage of VT should drop down to around 70% with Duke around 30%, with Miami and GT pretty much dropping out. Then VT would have to rely on WF or UNC for a win. That's a scary scenario.
Well the whole point is showing that it's not over and the percentages are based on the likeliness of each scenario happening. They're not really downplaying Duke since on paper and rankings wise it doesn't look like a win for them and if they and Clemson wins they outcomes go from 1024 to much, much less.
Yup. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Duke has a much better chance of winning out than people give them credit for.
For what its worth (and its not much), I can see Duke beating Miami and losing to UNC. When Morris is on, he is on, his second TD pass against us and those two TD's against FSU in the first half were perfectly throw balls in stride. Problem for Miami he can't do it consistently. But UNC will have a lot to play for in terms of still trying to reach a bowl and can make a statement win (seriously) by stopping Duke from winning the Coastal. Miami already lost to FSU in a much hyped game, followed that up with a dud against us in the clearest path for the Coastal, and lost their playmaker in Johnson in a two week span.
This is true. The last thing UNC wants to see is Duke winning the coastal on their home turf.
Love the stats..just take care of business!
Yeah, duh. I figured that out without no maths!
I wish I was 87.1% sure we'd win our next 2 games
Too bad there are 0 scenarios where we clinch this weekend. It's going all the way til the end. One game at a time. Start lookin ahead and that's when the losses come.
Clinch? no, but a GT win tomorrow night puts us in control of our own destiny going into the weekend which is a much better feeling than hoping someone else loses during the weekend or in the future.
although this is true, I seriously doubt clemson drops a game to GT. GT has not done very well against teams with extra prep time. I suspect we're going to be watching that Miami Duke game to see if it will decide our fate.
I am tempted to buy ACCCG tickets after this weeks games to save some cost if they pan out but I am nervous it would jinx us.
F-k. Maybe it's just me being superstitious but I don't feel comfortable with this. Hope it doesn't jinx us.