Premise: Bud comes up to you, the head coach of VT, and tells you that he no longer wants to retire and wants to coach another two years as DC for Virginia Tech, what do you do?
I ask this question because of the comments/forums I have seen on TKP is the last few days. Most of them focus on firing Fuente or Cornelson or both and place a majority of blame for the team's failures on the offensive side of the ball. There are comments/topics about the defense's issues, French wrote an excellent article on it, but most of the vitriol seems to be placed on the offense. I am not disagreeing that the offense has been a mess, but the outtrage seems to be 80% on the offense, 20% on the defense. Understandably, there is not a "Fire Foster" Thread because we all know about his retirement upon the conclusion of the season and Bud has a long history of success. However, I have been surprised to see comments saying Foster should be the interim or full time HC if CJF were to be fired, or that Fuente should apologize for his performance on the job, or that Fuente should "just let Bud do his own thing". Doesn''t Bud already have autonomy of the defense? Last time I checked Bud is the Associate Head coach and I am sure he impacts the mindset/culture and has input on the decisions behind the scenes, especially on defense.
Has Foster really done enough this year and the last four years under Fuente to not be held under more scrutiny?The man is without a doubt a legend and will have his own statue next to Coach Beamer when he retires. His legacy is unmatched in the sport, but is his work under Justin Fuente worthy of an extension? Or is his a retirement a good thing for both him and the team moving forward? Lets take a look:
On Field Results
When I think of Bud Foster's LPD, I think of a team that:
1. Makes team's 1 dimensional by taking away the running game
2. Creates havoc with sacks/TFLs
3. Creates TO's
4. Forces teams into third and long situations that results in low third-down conversions
With those things in mind, lets look at the stats from 2016-2019 against conference opponents (Fuente's tenure)
Rushing D yds/gm PPG allowed
2016: 147 2016: 21
2017: 123 2017: 15
2018: 239 2018: 30
2019: 196 2019: 40
Total D yds/gm TFL/gm
2016: 307 2016: 7.89
2017: 302 2017: 7.63
2018: 432 2018: 7.1
2019: 427 2019: 6
Looking at the data, there is a clean line of delineation between Years 1-2 and Years 3-4, similar to the offense. I think a big reason for that is the defense went from having NFL talent that were Juniors/Seniors to Freshmen and Sophmores who still have questions on whether they are talented enough to get drafted. With the majority of the defense returning coupled with some JUCO reinforcements I expected the defense to make more of a leap than it has thus far. I asked French before the season, what historical defense the 2019 defense could mirror based off the make up of the roster, his answer was the 2015 team. Here are some stats from the 2015 season:
Rushing yds/gm: 167
Total yds/gm: 343
ppg: 23
While the defense has improved, it is still below average. This is an experienced defense that has had no major injuries to its starters ,yet there has been only minimal improvement. The optimist may say that by season's end the defense may have a chance of statistically matching the 2015 defense or improving but its hard to see where and how. The points allowed per game, hopefully, will drop, but what else? We still have to play teams with dominating offensive lines which will limit TFLs, sacks, and can run the ball down our throats. Not to mention a high flying team like *checks notes* Wake Forest which could easily put up a lot of yards/points on this defense...on Bud Foster Appreciation Day.
Less Tangible On Field Results
Unlike the prior section, this section is more subjective and open to debate. Here are some issues that I have seen over the last two season:
Inability to play a complete game
-The defense has the ability to play fantastic for a quarter or two, but when has this team played a complete game? Or for that matter played a complete 3 quarters of a game against a P5/conference opponent?
Tackling
-Something I think we all agree with, that the tackling has been poor. This issue has to lie with technique and coaching which falls squarely on the defensive staff.
Mental toughness
-The defense seems to fall apart at the end of the half/end of the game or when the team starts losing momentum. Yes, the defense has been put into difficult situation by TOs from the offense, but its not like they have been able to prevent the other team from scoring. If a coach's personality has such a major impact on how the players play, shouldn't the D being playing with the same fearlessness and passion as the guy who coaches them?
Recruiting and Development
A comment that I get see repeated over and over again is how the talent pool on the defensive side of the ball has dropped, leading to the performance issues on the field. Fuente, as head coach deserves some of the blame, yes, but doesn't Bud have to accept some of it to? To be blunt: Bud is a below average recruiter. Outside of Dax, I am scratching my head on when Bud flipped a recruit or was personally responsible for pulling in a 4*. The defensive line depth is a mess, but is that not on Wiles/Bud? Yes, they were able to secure a commitment from a 4* like Proctor, but either they were unable to develop him or they misevaluated him, and he ultimately transferred. Fuente has the ultimate say in how is roster is built and who the staff extends official offers to, but Bud/Wiles are on the front line in scouting the talent and knowing where on the roster there may be issues in the coming years.
I think there is talent on the defensive side of the ball, but where is the development? As discussed in a different forum, the play from the safeties this season has been disappointing. Floyd/Deablo are presumably healthy and now have a position coach who is well versed in the system calling the shots, yet there has not been a visible improvement. The highest rated player on the team, Devon Hunter, had a redshirt year and still looks lost out on the field. Then you have someone like Dax who does not look like he has improved YoY. Yes, hes playing out of position, but he has been practicing and playing in that position since he arrived at Tech. He even slimmed down to play the position better, but the bottom line is not showing it. After his performance on Friday, Tisdale should be the starter. Foster has been talking about this kid all offseason, yet has continued to play Dax over Tisdale...is that not on Bud too?
Final Thoughts
Against a bad BC team and an average Duke team, Bud's defense has surrendered 80 points. This defense had 0 sacks against Duke and forced 0 turnovers against them as well. The defensive intensity completely fell apart after the Duke TD. Players stopped trusting their technique, were out of position, or were not swarming to the ball. That is on Bud. Unless there is an interview/article saying otherwise, Bud runs this defense. Bud cultivates the culture with his guys. If Bud thinks there is a lack of depth/talent, Bud should be out there changing that on the recruiting trail. There has been some improvement, but when you are still giving up 200 yds/game on the ground even when your whole defensive mentality is about stopping the run, maybe its time for a change. If inexperience and youth is not an excuse on the offensive side of the ball, it should not be on the defensive side of the ball either. I would not retain Bud. I think it is time for a fresh pair of eyes to come in and take over the D.
Comments
No. It's time to start over.
And if he was to be HC, he would HAVE to hire a new DC and be hands off. He can take over Special teams.
No. Time to start fresh.
The time for half-measures and talk is over, Senator.
Nice post my brother. Hope life is treating you well.
Fun fact: LouisianaHokie and I were roommates at THE University of Virginia Tech University. Good dude.
In regards to Foster, it's 100% time to move on. I love Bud, but if he wasn't who he was, he'd be getting probably just as much scrutiny as Brad. You laid out some of the numbers and they don't lie.
Good question, and a fair one IMO.
His performance has not been up to snuff either these last few seasons. I agree that if he wasn't Bud Foster, he would be catching a fair amount of criticism as well.
With that said, college football is an offensive game now. If your O can't get it done, nobody is really paying attention to production or lack thereof on the other side. I think Foster's scheme has always had a weakness against the current spread attack style, and as much as I love him it's time for VT to start over from a coaching standpoint.
And I pose this question to you, good sir...does Bud want to be retained? From the looks of it, he's ready to spend a lot more time on the lake with the grandkids.
And pounding a twelve pack of BUDweiser at Floydfest. Per day
I think DCwilson started a "critique" last year and got flamed for it.
It wasn't about the content but the tone and delivery that got him in trouble
Yeah I might be in the minority because that stuff doesn't bother me as much as it does others. If you have a point then I think it should be taken on it's merit. But that's just me. I got thick skin from political forums lol.
Timing is everything. They guy on the corner shouting the end is near is likely going to get poor treatment while everything is going well. If the end actually comes, no one will give a crap who was screaming it first.
Timing is everything? Sure. But you could say the same about foresight too. We are in Hindsight mode now.
Being a defeatist doesn't get you extra sprinkles when your team falls on hard times.
Calling out a downward trend before you hit rock bottom can help you react to it earlier, and perhaps avoid it... And no, that doesn't automatically mean firing said coach.
Agreed. I took a ton of shit a year(+) ago for questioning this staff's experience, saying they often functioned like they were in over their head, and questioned their ability to recruit at a level necessary to win. I get absolutely zero satisfaction about that because I'm beyond pissed with what our program has become and where it continues to trend, but we shouldn't be calling DC, myself, a handful of other posters assholes on the front end for bringing up these concerns early, and then calling them assholes or defeatists on the back-end too.
You realize that French posts critiques of the team after every game and had raised questions about OL blocking scheme, QB play, RB usage, DT recruiting and plenty of other issues, and yet people were genuinely appreciative of it, right?
I wonder if the difference in response was, oh geez I don't know, that French explained his reasoning, provided specific, tangible supporting information, and engaged others with respect instead of acting like, to use your terminology, an asshole when discussing the issues with the program.
Okay
I'm not sure calling out a downward trend, correct or not, on a fan board helps the coaching staff avoids down seasons.
Generally, this site is about as fair as any sports site I've seen about judging arguments on merit.
Are you saying that our coaching staff is NOT scouring this and other forums for insights on how to fix the program?
Hard to believe, isn't it?
So much for all the time and effort I put into my response in the "what would you do if you were Fuente" thread.
Well, sometimes if you take the time to select just the right gif...
You would think so the way you're reminded by some that discussing certain topics on a fan forum intended for just that is unproductive to helping this program. Smh.
Bitter: so Jerry, you said you got into Blacksburg on Tuesday night and your wife dropped you off at the office. What is the first thing you get to work on?
Kill: I'm glad you asked. The first thing I did was text coach Lechtenberg for the WiFi password so I could sign up for The Key Players Club and get the answers for how to fix this program. Actually Mr. Babcock asked me for my login the next day so he could get the latest financials and learn how to run an athletic department.
It doesn't take Jerry Kill, Jerry Jones, or Jerry Glanville to see the dumpster fire that has been VT football the past 18 months. I hope they didn't pay Kill for an in-depth analysis on why 18 players have left or why Pitt rushed for 9ypc.
I guess they understand that they can get called a "dumpster fire" for free.
They're paying Kill to help identify practical, achievable improvements.
Well, then I truly hope he's successful.
Me, too.
They could have had our advice for free.
his "critique" amounted to little more than a misunderstanding of what made GT's passing game under CPJ both effective and efficient
But...
Head coach picks his staff - you don't force coordinators on a head coach.
If I'm head coach, I say possibly. I have no doubt that Foster still knows how to coach, the talent level of his defenses has just fallen off in the last few years. If he's willing to work with staff who prioritize recruiting, I say hell yes.
Bud's lost that loving feeling.
Actually, on the contrary, I'd say he's found it.
Take a look at the Duke game, where the wheels fell off the tracks:
VT possession, 5 plays, -7 yards, 2:21
Duke TD - 1 play, :05
- 3 & out, 1:05
Duke TD, 9 plays 67 yards; 3:32
- 5 plays, 35 yds, punt- 2:18
Duke TD, 9 plays, 91 yards, 3:46
-5 plays, 22 yards, haltime. (TOP doesn't matter on this one, D gets to rest at half)
2nd half
Duke Punt, 8 plays 27 yards, 4:03
-3 & out, 8 yds, 1:53
Duke FG 10 plays, 49 yards, 3:08
-Turnover on downs, 6 plays, 20 yards, 2:18
Duke TD 1 play, 42 yards, :08
-TD 3 plays, 78 yards, :59
Duke TD 10 plays, 75 yards 5:06
-INT, 5 plays, 15 yards, 1:24
Duke TD 11 plays, 57 yards, 7:24
That's a whole lot of time on the field, with not a lot of time in between for the D. Offense has gotta stay on the field.
To be clear, I am not saying the the D is in the clear, they definitely have some of the blame, but it's the same old VT football, defense has to play a perfect game in order to win. Fuente came with the promise of offense. He has failed to deliver.
I agree, but it is also pretty clear that the physicality and the endurance has been waning. Lunch Pail Defense was defined by out working the other guy. The whole point of LPD was that you will wear out before we will.
I agree to a degree, but if our D doesn't get a chance to catch their breath before having to roll back out there, they are gonna wear out first
Yeah it's been concerning the amount of time the D's been on the field.
Short drive then they're back out there, over and over. That alone could cause
a lot of problems - fatigue, frustration, etc.
Duke only had possession for 12:25 in the first half. I'll give you the 7 points from the turnover being largely on the offense (although giving it 42 yards in 1 play shouldn't be excusable for the defense but whatever), but how is the complete disintegration for the rest of the first half on the offense?
The defense had been on the field for a total of 5:07 out of 19:57 seconds when the score was 7-3 and Duke got the ball back at their own 33. Duke had to drive 67 and 91 yards for touchdowns so they weren't left on a short field. I simply don't see how anyone is making excuses for the defense crumbling at that point.
I started looking at after the fumble, because, as I said, that's where the wheels came off the tracks. Whether that is a confidence thing, frustration or what, I don't know, that's another discussion.
From that point on in the first half Duke had it 7:23 compared to our 1:23 (that doesn't include the final :39 second possession of the half, which, like I mentioned above didn't help our D get a break, cause it led to half)
It's a self fulfilling argument. Yes the offense didn't have especially long drives between Duke's scoring drives. However, a significant reason the defense was on the field was actually within their own control- and they simply couldn't get themselves off the field during the 67 and 91 yard drives.
All Day.
Yall are INSANE and just taking knee jerk reactions. Tell me PLEASE who you would pick as your 'better' choice?
Slowly seeing one of the best defensive coordinators to ever coach college football decline in most statistical areas of the game over the last 4-5 years and believe it's a good time for him to step out when he is isn't what I'd consider a knee jerk reaction. I promise you I like Bud just as much as you and the next person. This program wouldn't be on the map without him, but let's not act like he's still at the pinnacle of his coaching career and we can't do better moving forward.
These are the defenses he's coached the past 5 years
Scoring defense - PTS/Game Allowed
2014: 17th (20 pts)
2015: 47th (24 pts)
2016: 30th (22 pts)
2017: 5th (14 pts)
2018: 85th (32 pts)
2019: 78th (28 pts) * currently
teams who have allowed less than 25 points a game consecutively over the same time period:
Be careful what y'all wish for, I don't know how people think someone else at the helm will have these kids playing better.
Last year and most of this year have sucked, but I would lower your expectations for another defensive coordinator to come in and have the success Bud has had.
I don't know what to tell you. He's a legend, but I would hope we can get someone who gets us back to being better than the upper 80's nationally in scoring defense (this year may be worse than that) as you yourself put up. Also, someone who can limit huge chunks of yards on the ground game-by-game like Bud in his prime. Also, someone who's an comfortable recruiting. Nobody is denying Bud was one of the best, but it's naive to think he's still producing at a high level and there's not better options out there.
Yeah...
He's had one full season that allowed more than 25 points per game since 2004
That's my point. Y'all think someone else is going to come in and be better, not worse.
Y'all are assuming change = better
That's what I'm questioning.
I'm with you here. I continue to believe that the largest contributing factor to our recent lack of success is our youth. The coaches are responsible for that up to a point, but I'm not convinced that they've forgotten how to coach or just checked out.
Change will not = better if we don't get talent. We must haveJimmies and joes and some dogs for defense! If the new person can both recruit and coach, then change will be better.
I'm not assuming change = better, but I'm saying that at this point in his career, Bud isn't producing like he used to. I'm not saying we're going to have another DC come in right away and do what Bud did for most of his career (I hope you see that that's not at all my argument), but if you look at the regression and where we're trending defensively, then ya, a lot of coordinators out there could/should do better that where we are now and where we're heading.
You are missing the most important point, in that Bud is retiring on his own accord.
What we as fans think will happen is irrelevant. Your posts seem to have a sense that he is being forced out for poor performance or something. He decided its time to hang em up. There is no "be careful what we wish for", my wish would be to have Bud forever but thats not happening.
Bud is a legend, but I don't think its that far fetched that another DC with a different scheme and energy for recruiting could come in and do a better job right now
Just to be clear, the initial question from the thread was a hypothetical and I played along
I think yall are still assuming a different defensive coordinator would be better with the roster at hand. That's what I am questioning, I don't think another defensive coordinator would have done a better job than Bud Foster last year with the roster he had.
Y'all need to lower your expectations for whoever comes in is all I'm saying. People are misremembering how good of a defensive coordinator bud foster is. Just two years ago, Virginia tech had the 5th best scoring defense.
There is an extremely short list of defensive coordinators that share his circle.
Here's to a well-deserved retirement and thank you for all he has done to elevate VT football. Sadly, it's time to move on.
Would his ex wife have retained him?
He's been done with her and us for quite some time it seems.
If there is any Firing of Fuente, Bud should be Interim Head Coach. He can decide in the offseason, if he wants to un-retire.
But I don't think such a thing is gonna happen. the same folks are gonna be running the show and then Fuente will replace Bud at the end of the season.
I, too, agree that there is no way it is going to happen. Bud is done, good or bad.
But, if I have to play pretend, I think that I would have a long, serious talk with Bud to find out the real motivations for wanting to stay. Basically I would only consider it if Bud really, really convinced me that he had been somehow talked/pressured into it by others and that his drive to keep coaching, to keep being a positive part of the kids' lives and to continue to be a part of the program. Considering it at that point, we'd have to come up with a balls to the wall success plan for recruiting and on the field improvement. But most likely, I'd probably convince him that the timing is right and to go enjoy his family and free time.
SH!T This is a good question, DC.
Wait LouisianaHokie dang I'm lost.
Answer incoming...
Right, because DC writes long form posts weighing the pros and cons and supporting his points with stats and objective evidence so often.
...Or he just skips that and randomly invokes Seth Dooley regardless of relevance to the current discussion.
It's funny this post is catching downvotes because I guarantee my post would already be green if I made a joke about Fireman bringing up financials or the Hokie Club.
Anyway DC has made posts that I agree with but my comment was pointing out that his posting style couldn't be farther from the OP here. That said, if anyone knows a DC post with one quarter as much effort as the OP, I'll happily admit that I'm wrong and apologize for my insensitive and inaccurate joke.
Nope, time to clean house from the AD down to the water boy
I'm not sure that I'm sold on Foster being the HC, but if he was even if for a short time, could he be inducted into the Hall of Fame? He deserves to be there, but can't because he's never been a HC.
No- 10 year minimum as HC
Bummer! Thanks for the assist!
Once someone for-real decides to retire, it's like a switch gets flipped. Recently had an early retirement package come thru my company and several of my friends took the deal. Every single one who wasn't previously planning to go told me that once the decision was made, their last day couldn't happen soon enough and there was no turning back. So based on my limited sample set of dedicated professionals, I'd say Bud is definitely checking out at the end of the season. Not saying he won't pop up somewhere else later tho.
How I feel right now
As long as I'm head coach, Bud can coach my defense as long as he damn well pleases. If I get fired because Bud was unable to turn the defense around, I'd sleep well at night knowing I had a legend giving it his all.
No. Bud needs to go. Not that he is not a fantastic coach. It is just that Fuente needs to run his own show, on both sides. Even if Fuente wanted to make changes he cannot or will not because Bud is Bud and he politically cannot mess with that
*Winds up arm, grabs Molotov*
It looks like Bud's defense starting slipping when Beamer's recruits started graduating out or going pro. That step change in between year 2 and 3 implies there is an external factor other than the effect of Bud
Remember when we had a staff that didn't hold offensive production in high regard but focused on defense, special teams, and field position? The recruiting philosophy then favored the defensive side. Now we are throwing more offers at receivers and skill positions. It is subtle, but if a few of your project guys each cycle are offensive minded versus defensive minded, it can tip the scales. Unfortunately the production on offense hasnt matched the plan. So, we suck all around.
I'm of a mind that Bud's scheme is a bit outdated in today's game. With that said, he had a spot on my team as long as he is willing. I believe he could revamp the defense but doesnt appear to have the energy to do it at this point in his career.
I am shocked by the number of people here ready to move on because Bud had a bad year with the youngest, most inexperienced group of players he's ever fielded.
Bud is a treasure and we should hold on with both hands.
This was kind of my point for this article:
2018: Defense super young with no depth, produces awful on field results, 98th in total D
2019: Most of D returns, incremental improvement, still overall meh product, 51st in total D
Avg over last 2 years: 74.5
Some of fanbase: not Foster's fault, deserves a pass given the hand he was dealt
But for the offense...
2018: Starting QB goes down, freshmen/sophs in key positions, finish 38th in total O
2019: both starting QB and back up are banged up, 2 true freshmen on the O line with our transfer center being denied his waiver, a true fresh RB playing, and a true fresh leading team in receptions, 100th in total O
Avg: 69th
fanbase: FIRE CORNELSON!!!
I understand the criticism for the O, but I also think people have a soft spot for Foster and the glory days that maybe we are being a little less critical of him than we should be.
The offensive staff is getting more heat than it deserves as well if you ask me, BUT the coaches have some control over the hand we've been dealt. I don't feel like I have enough info about the inner workings of college football roster management and recruiting to pass final judgement on why we have so many young players ... bad management, bad recruiting, bad luck, etc. Everyone is an offensive coordinator when the O isn't producing.
I have wondered, what sort of results should we be expecting from this group based on it's youth? How are the teams younger than us performing relative to their normal expectations? How have teams in our situations performed in past years?
Are you going to recruit hard the next 2 years Bud?
BUD...GETS...A...PASS
Unless he has checked out (for whatever reason). Then he doesn't get a pass.
Is recognizing the consistent high production over time and the correlation of the youth movement on the team with our current regression the same as giving Bud a pass?
In my mind no, but the post I replied to stated that "Bud gets a pass." If Bud has lost his motivation to coach and to win, then he does not get a pass.
Bud stays.
Well it looks like Chris Ash is available, I think as a Defensive Coordinator he did well at Wisconsin and Arkansas. At tHe OSU he was a CO-DC. I don't have all the stats, but could be a possibility.
From S&P+ defensive rankings:
Ohio State (co-DC/S)
2014: 24th
2013: 44th (year before he coached)
Arkansas (DC/DB)
2013: 80th
2012: 51st (year before he coached)
Wisconsin: (DC/DB)
2012: 12th
2011: 36th
2010: 34th (year before he coached)
Thanks for that
That's an interesting thought. Looks like he can coach.
But I suppose recruiting ability (and what staff he could bring) should be a key component in our evaluation, as well as philosophy and how he could get along and mesh with Fuente.
Also looking at the Standings from the group of 5:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/standings/
San Diego State has only given up 47 points and their offense is not great, in fact won only 6-0 Against Weber State. I'm liking this Zach Arnett Guy, not really even sure we can get any west coast guys over here, not really finding his coaching History
Really? Why even go there?
LBH, I think our next coordinator is going to be Brent Guy. Fuente wanted Galen but Galen fucked that up. Guy was the safeties coach for Memphis in 2015 (Fuente's last year) and was most recently the DC at FIU (left last February for family/personal reasons). Nominated for the Broyles award in 2017. Seems like a very Fuente move.
Hokie Nation, get ready to say "this fucking Guy" everytime we can't maintain gap integrity on basic running plays.
Is Memphis any good on defense?
If we're not running Foster's system then the defense won't be predicated on maintaining gap integrity on running plays.
Loyalty vs Performance....
This is always the issue at the end of a legend's career.
Kudo's to Frank and Bud! Instead of only thinking of themselves and continuing to fight and compete and tearing the fan base in half - they both made the decision for us.
TBH: whatever the next step/phase of VT football ends up being, it won't occur till Bud has stepped down....and I believe he knows it.
If it was his wish to continue coaching - my hope for him would be to catch on with an elite team (Bama, Ok, Ohio State) where he doesn't have to recruit a lot and let him coach with elite talent for a few years. MARK MY WORDS! if Venebles finally gets a head coaching gig, the first call Dabo should make is to Bud!
How about Bud to the NFL!
Coach Foster is a good man and he's doing a loving and necessary thing for our program!
He wouldn't come back and ask to "Unretire" nor should we keep him. His demeanor and lack of intensity on the side lines make me believe that he has already checked out. And I get it. After years of doing anything it all wears on you. Bud, grab a Rolling Rock and shred Claytor Lake again this spring.
For all the former player names that get thrown out there, i'm surprised i never hear Anthony Midget. 2 years as the DB coach and 4 more years as the Asst. DB coach for the Houston Texans. Safeties Coach at Penn State before that.
Fuente's staff isn't to good at recruiting. Not sure how it's setup, but I don't think Bud has the right type of dline talent he used too. Some could be his. I think if he had the right players he could get it done.
The Interim thing is just that an interim. I hope if we get shellacked again we just cut bait now. No reason to have a dead man walking.
Bud helped build this program for his entire career. Let him run the ship until he retires. 2 terrible seasons will never define him.