Willis started 4 games for the Hokies, 2 vs P5 opponents, 1 vs G5, 1 vs FCS. Here's how that offense looks.
Passing Offense: 214.75 ypg, good for 11th in the ACC
Rushing Offense: 148.75 ypg, good for 9th
Total Offense: 363.5 ypg, good for 11th
Scoring Offense: 23.25 ppg, 13th in the ACC
Now with Hooker/QPII as starter, 4 games, 3 vs P5* opponents, 1 vs FCS.
Passing Offense: 205 ypg, down about 10 ypg
Rushing Offense: 183 ypg, up 35 ypg
Total Offense: 388 ypg, up 25 ypg
Scoring Offense: 34.75 ppg up 11.5 ppg
Oddly enough the numbers swtich when you look at the defense. With Willis starting
Passing D: 163.25 ypg, 2nd best in the ACC
Rushing D: 189 ypg, 2nd worst
Total D: 352.25 ypg, good for 5th
Scoring D: 28.5 ppg, 9th
With Hooker/QPII starting
Passing D: 359.75 ypg, got worse by about 195 ypg
Rushing D: 91.75 ypg, got better by 98 ypg
Total D: 451.5 ypg, got worse by 99 ypg
Scoring D: 28.5 ppg, completely identical
Comments
Nice analysis.
Defense is really hard to explain. Maybe the competition has gotten better? I dunno, it's not as though we had much success on D as far as stopping the only 2 good offenses we played with RW as starter (BC and Duke scored 35, 45). I thought just based on watching the games the UNC was the best our D has played this year when considering the competition.
Offense - it makes sense I guess but it's not 100% QB change. Willis never had his top 2 wideouts fully healthy, and he never had Miami's offense gift him 5 turnovers. Still, seems Hendon has given the team the spark it needed and has made big plays down the stretch.
If the defense can cut down on the explosive plays against, those numbers will improve...also, am I the only one that feels like our defense can't get off the field?
Passing D is skewed by a small sample size. In context it makes more sense, but still is far too many passing yards given up:
Miami got down 28-0 and pretty much only threw the ball for three quarters.
Sam Howell is a top 3 QB in conference and on pace to break all of Trevor Lawrence's true freshman records.
Rhode Island threw the ball almost exclusively.
This^^.
Miami was playing from behind the whole game and VT played from ahead on D. Miami had to take risks and did. VT was playing the clock as much as Miami much of the last 3 qtrs.
Rhode Island's game plan was mostly to avoid getting blown out - lots of clock running, high percentage, but largely inefficient (see the YPA), possession passes - in the hope VT might somehow implode. Their passing game was really a quasi-run game. Sort of an alternate universe Paul Johnson-era GT. But with inflated pass yardage stats instead of rushing yards stats.
Remember, Bud Foster's #1 goal is to always stop the run and make the other team one dimensional. And the VT D has done that the last three games. The three opponents have averaged just over 50 pass attempts per game the last three games. No coach outside of maybe the Big12 wants this.
Sure the VT D has given up yards through the air but they've been inefficient yards. A far more important stat (but far less used) than total pass yards is yards per attempt. If you want to know who won a game just look at turnovers and YPA and you'll have a pretty good idea. And the YPA for the three opponents has been just 7.25 - which is a winning recipe for a defense in college football. Meanwhile VT has made 9.87 YPA. That's a huge difference.
So the pass D has actually been much better the last three games than it appears superficially.
Positive marc is an oddly pleasant thing.
Thanks...I guess.
Interesting though given I was one of the few who didn't have a pitchfork and torch out for Fuente et al a month ago - and said this is a very young team missing some key components playing like...a very young team missing some key components. I thought this team had a chance to improve appreciably by year-end if it could get there without losing itself first (although while I've never been particularly impressed with Willis, I'll admit I didn't even see a QB change happening let alone having this big of an impact).
But I guess somehow that's considered a negative nancy in message board world.
I call 'em like I see 'em. Some people just get their feathers ruffled when someone looks deeper than the conventional wisdom and emotion.
Ah so YPA is the new TOP. Touche, salesman!
When I want to know who won the game, I generally depend on the final score. \s
Seriously, good comments here.
In summary:
LAST THREE GAMES:
Miami - 55 attempts 4 TDs 469 Yards - 0.072 TD/Attempt, 8.5 Yards/Attempt
Rhode Island - 47 attempts 1 TD 286 Yards - 0.02 TD/Attempt, 6 Yards/Attempt
UNC - 49 attempts 5 TDs 348 Yards - 0.1 TD/Attempt, 7.1 Yards/Attempt
Yards = 1103
Attempts = 151
Passing TDs Allowed = 10
Yards/Attempt = 7.3
TD/Attempt = 0.066
If teams passed an average amount the past three games (25 attempts or so) we would have allowed:
If it were an average team with 25 Attempts:
YARDS ALLOWED: 182.5
TDS ALLOWED = 1.65
Im actually surprised - really good point to bring up marcb, I would not have thought our defense was playing as well as it has. I dont know where that ranks nationally, but I would imagine those are very strong numbers...
Methinks your Miami TD/Attempt is a little off.
EDIT: It was corrected. No longer suggesting they scored 39 touchdowns.
Youre right I was only accounting for Nkosi Perry's stats - updated to include Williams - so we were actually doing better.
Have to add the -TDs from Williams.
You get the point
Our defense is improving - we arent 2017 but we arent last year...
Teams are averaging 32 attempts a game which is 233 yards and 2 TDs. That ranks us around 75th. However last year we ranked 63rd and allowed 228 a game.
The big change is we are 50th in run defense verse 106 last year. With a 65 y/g decrease. So teams are passing more against us (6 attempts per game) because they cant run as well. Also we allowed 7.6 ypa in 2018 verses 7.3. So we are doing better than last year. Our run D is holding teams to almost 1.5 yards less per rush this year.
Interesting - any chance you could calculate these numbers on a per play basis? That should help to account for short fields, starting position, and whatnot. Also, could you edit your post to put the numbers in a table? Sorry to be annoying, but it's a lot easier to consume that way.
In games that Hooker started, passing production has gone up 2.2 yards per attempt, rushing production has gone up .91 ypa, while overall production is up 1.6 yards per play.
Playcalling remains 70.67-70.75 plays per game, although we're throwing 6 fewer times per game, but running 6 more.
Oh and we're winning more
All good things. Those are really big - and important - improvements which confirm what the eyes are seeing.
The only caveat is those numbers are against Miami, URI and UNC. But then again it's compared to the numbers vs BC, ODU, Furman & Duke so...
Do the Defensive numbers include all 6 OT's. There's added yardage there that isn't accounted for versus other games.
Considering 3 of the OTs they got zero net yards and only a few yards in 1 more, I don't think it really had an impact. Only once did they get the full 25 yards and about 17 in one more, I believe. So probably 50 yards total, if that.
well OT 5 and OT 6 there is negative yardage for our defense!
Since they counted as 2-point conversions, and 2-point conversions generally don't count in statistics aside from "made" or "missed", I don't think those lost yardage counted in our defense's favor.
You are technically correct (the best kind), but those stop are still real to ladler.
One the 247 Podcast last friday they had Chase Mumau on. One of his observations from the Passing game was to have more variety in the throws for Hooker and Quincy.
Best punter ever.
Except for Oscar. Nic. And others. But still...
Would it count as a passing attempt and/or completion if we could get O. Bradburn to throw the ball forwards, but down into his boot and have the ball carry 60 yards to one of our streaking receivers to catch it?
I feel like his YPA would be astronomical.
The ol' passpunt play
The "leg pass" to offset the "arm punt"
2-0 in ACC play vs 0-2 in ACC play.
Hooker is 7th in country for month of October with a 178 passer rating. Willis on the season, including his 3/3 passing against UNC is at 142, which puts him at 52nd. Bryce perkins by the way is at 92nd with a 122.5
Updated for Notre Dame