I know this has been mentioned in several threads, but I wanted it in one nice tidy location. Who the hell do I root for now? I know I want Duke to lose, but when and how? What magical formula of this team wins this week and this team loses next should I be pulling for. I want to watch some games this weekend, but I am not clear on which ones I should care about or why. Plus my wife wants to go to Bed Bath and Beyond and I just don't know if I will have enough time. So TKPers, what are our best scenarios?
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http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/index.ssf/2013/11/acc_football_w...
Your rooting for Duke to lose to Wake I suppose. Thats the only thing that needs to happen. Duke losing one of their final two games puts Tech in the championship game. (Assuming decade of dominance is accomplished)
(Edit: Im wrong. Look below)
Thats not entirely true. If Duke loses to Wake but miami wins this weekend, Duke can still go with a win over UNC. Its situation 9 I think under Duke's scenario's from that website you linked.
Nice. You must have posted this the instant I started my reply.
Good catch, my bad. I cant imagine Duke managing to lose to Wake though. But that would be classic ACC so it probably will.
Not entirely true. Look at scenario #9 in the Duke table. If they lose to Wake but beat UNC, assuming Miami wins out (likely) and even if we beat UVA (fingers crossed), Duke beats us and goes to the ACCCG. A Duke loss to UNC is much more favorable for us. Wake can factor in, but UNC is the bigger deal.
Great link, though, thanks for posting that!
In a perfect world, I see myself switching back and forth between duke-wake and miami-uva games at noon this weekend and watching duke and miami lose both, thereby creating a win-and you're in situation for us. I will not cheer for uva to win, but if it seems like wake may pull the upset, I wouldn't be upset with Miami also losing.
Thats dedication to VT. I would rather have AJ Hughes drop kick my own balls then watch 60 minutes of Miami-UVA football. I'll just scan ESPN once its over.
Both are assuming we beat UVA obviously
If Duke loses to Wake this weekend and UVA beats Miami, we are in.
Alternatively if Duke loses to UNC, we are in.
courtesy http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/index.ssf/2013/11/acc_football_w...
+1! Dozer, once again you are the bomb diggity.
I love test cases, probablility ratios, punnett squares, and most of all Virginia Tech Senario charts.
Scenario 7 is best Scenario. Virginia Loses. Miami loses. It's all perfect. Scenario 6 is my second choice.
http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2013/11/acc-wheel-of-destiny-week-12-wrap-up...
For every scenario except the five way tie, VT needs to beat UVA + a Duke loss + either another Duke loss or a Miami loss.
If Duke loses two, VT wins all of the ties among 3 loss teams.
If Duke only loses one, we need Miami to lose to drop out of the tie.
If both Duke and Miami win this weekend, then we need Duke to lose to UNC, which would at minimum set up a four way tie that VT wins. If Miami wins out, VT wins the five way tie.
Bed Bath and Beyond...
I'd rather rake leaves with a dinner fork.
In my dream scenario (#5), Duke loses next two and VT wins. Causes me the least anxiety and doesn't matter what any other team does. Most likely it will come down to the last play of the Duke-UNC game.
Most probable scenario IMO: We beat UVa. Miami beats UVA & Pitt. Duke beats Wake but loses on the road to a hot UNC team. VT, Miami, Duke, UNC, & GT would all be tied at 5-3. We win that tie breaker since we are the only team with a 3-1 record against the other tied teams.
Thats the scenario for which I'm rooting.
If VT the last team to win an outright Coastal title? I'm excluding UNC and Miami forfeits of course.
I can't imagine Louisville is happy about going to the Atlantic.
In 2010 & 2011 we went 8-0 & 7-1 in ACC play, so yes. We we're the last team to win out-right.
Ah, yes, those were the days.
Here's my analysis of the chances of each scenario happening. The win percentages are based on Massey's chances of each team winning (with the appropriate home/away scenario).
Your %s on the bottom are messed up - I think it should be:
if VT wins:
- 59.02% chance VT goes
- 40.98% chance Duke goes
if VT losses:
- 0% chance VT goes
- 41% chance Duke goes
- 35.86% chance GT goes
- 23.14% chance Miami goes
Yeah, my bad. I was still just looking at it as overall percentages and broke it up into the only scenarios that really matter for us.
This chart is hot shit! Love it.
Let's put it this way. We COULD root for Miami to lose to UVA this weekend, which would give us a chance at a win and you're in game next weekend. But screw that, I'd rather miss the title game than root for the Hoos. Go Tar Heels!