% receiving yards returning as an indicator for offensive success

One of the most surprising statistical indicators in college football was Bill Connelly's finding that percentage of receiving yards returning has a higher correlation to offensive success than passing yards returning, rushing yards returning, or offensive line snaps returning. Basically, this means that experience across the wide receiver corps has a greater (statistical) impact on offensive success than experience from any other position group. This stat was mentioned in a few articles in The Athletic this week, one by Andy Bitter, and one by the UGA beat writer.

This got me curious about how the quality of Fuente's offenses at VT varied based on percentage of returning receiving yards. Here's the data:

Season Receiving Yards Receiving Yards Returning (next season) % Receiving Yards Returning (next season) Offensive SP+ Ranking
2015 2936 2567 87% 57
2016 3666 494 13% 39
2017 3113 1200 39% 71
2018 3300 2467 75% 41
2019 2718 2408 89% 60

As you can see, there's a pretty obvious correlation between % of Receiving Yards Returning, and SP+ offensive ranking the following season. The only exception is the 2019 season, and I think we can all assume that was due to Ryan Willis's performance over the first 4 games of the season.

I'm sure there will be some transfers, decreasing the 89% of returning receiving yards to 80-85%, but either way, there is much on offense to be excited about next year.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

2023 Season Challenge: TBD
Previous Challenges: Star Wars (2019), Marvel (2020), Batman (2021), Wrasslin' (2022)

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

2023 Season Challenge: TBD
Previous Challenges: Star Wars (2019), Marvel (2020), Batman (2021), Wrasslin' (2022)

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K

Please join The Key Players Club to read or post comments.

"Nope, launch him into the sun and fart on him on the way up"
-gobble gobble chumps

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)