First, I see the other two threads were locked, I would like to think that this is the appropriate outlet for this topic. Don't know what the likelihood of it would be, but evidently NCAA officials are not ruling out the possibility of playing the tournament in empty arenas.
Appears some schools are beginning to limit the number of people attending events in order to allow them to maintain a safer separation between people.
I have to imagine the outbreak would have to get SIGNIFICANTLY worse for the NCAA to have the tourney played in empty arenas
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8071757/An-NCAA-Tournament-aren...
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
Silver lining we will not be making any tourney so nothing for us to worry about, sigh...
This would be very interesting. I know the governor of Washington said that they haven't officially recommended anything, but said to "begin to think" about avoiding large crowds. He also stated that it isn't out of the question that they may cancel large events in Washington state.
https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/politics-government/article240801296...
Note: I don't think this is political, but if mods or Joe disagree, delete away.
This is probably an appropriate discussion topic as it related to college sports. Multiple "tracking threads" with "a toddler in arlington has the sniffles and she went to the doctor" vibe is not really for TKP lol
But dad jokes, unpopular opinions about random shit, and mayonnaise experiments (just some of the random topics lately) are worthy of TKP?
Random shit is the best kind of shit
We gotta have standards. /S or not /S...dealer's choice.
There were a few Hokies that were interacting with us on those threads that were stuck in China, and Japan. That's boots on the ground information.
Hopefully they are all ok. Especially Fernley.
That's one reason that I wish that those threads hadn't been locked.
Hope they're doing okay.
Thanks for asking.
I'm good. Family is good. Things are turning a corner over here. At this point I am more worried for everyone in the States. It's unlikely the extreme quarantine measures will be used there so control will be a factor. Stay safe everyone.
Glad to hear.
Doing fine in Okinawa as well. Quarantine measures are pretty widespread. The public school year runs from mid-April to end of March in Japan and schools have decided to close a month early. My girlfriend's youngest sister graduated from high school this year and the graduation ceremony was only open to those students (no family allowed). Almost all public events have been canceled for the month and some businesses are operating under reduced hours. I was entered in a half-marathon later this month, but it has been canceled. There have been only 3 reported cases on this small island, which is pretty surprising considering the population density.
My oldest graduates from HS in June and I'm thinking we may be at that point by then over here in the US. Glad you and your people are ok...thanks for the update.
My sister was supposed to study abroad this semester in Tokyo. Just found out Friday that her program was canceled. Sucks since she took the semester off because of the difference in school schedules and is past the summer deadline for classes. Also, I guess I won't be going over to Japan this spring/summer.
I have a friend from Tech that teaches English near Guangzhou. She and a few other teachers were on vacation in Thailand when everything hit, and since they closed the school, they've been on extended vacation in Thailand ever since. School is still closed, as far as I know. Yes, I'm jealous.
If they cancel the NCAAT, our NCAAT streak would remain in tact!
The NCAA is going to do whatever is in the best interest of the NCAA and it's bottom line.
It'll be just like the spring fling for loluva...
I'm trying to picture how playing a game in an empty arena would affect the gameplay.
Anyone ever watched a UVA football game besides ours? What's the atmosphere like?
If they lose to a 16 seed and nobody is there to see it.......
YUP, still happened. Hahahahahaha.
We should have a chance at placing 6 or 7 wrestlers in the NCAA championships to be held at the U.S.Bank stadium up in Minnesota. Place seats 66k. I think it's the first time being held in Minn and more than likely they picked that site to get more $$$ coming in. Be interesting to see how NCAA handles this.
We'll see how quickly the virus progresses but the NCAA wrestling tournament is only 3 days, March 19-21, at one site so the potential impact is probably significantly lower than the NCAA men's basketball tournament, which spans March 17-April 6 at 14 different sites.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28833590/chicago...
Games are already being cancelled in the WAC. It's hard for me to condemn Chicago St. for cancelling, but, idk, it's a weird situation.
At this point this is just trying to stick a band-aid on a dam break. The virus is in the US, we cannot test for it, the department whose job it is to contain this has had their budget slashed to the point where high level officials are basically just saying 'yeah we told you this would happen, and now it's too late'. It's incredibly likely this virus has already spread to every major city in every state. Just yesterday a man who flew from Seattle to Raleigh, passing through RDU tested positive and likely was contagious in the airport. Containment of this has been a spectacular failure and will be something to be studied for decades to come.
My point here is that it won't matter if events are canceled. It won't matter if large gatherings are curtailed. Infection is likely already at a point where the majority of the citizens in the US are going to catch this regardless of what measures are in place.
The man traveled from Seattle to Raleigh on Feb 22, not yesterday. He wasn't showing symptoms when he traveled. Enough isn't known about transmission to make irresponsible statements like yours. You should at least have facts straight before trying to spread fear. Here is a Link with facts.
I agree that the figures are likely underreported given extremely limited testing; however, events being canceled would certainly help contain new cases. Not sure how you can argue that spreading wouldn't be more limited without thousands of people sitting in close proximity for several hours.
There have been several mentions of asymptomatic transmission already in the news, and a simple google search reveals scientific studies that suggest that asymptomatic transmission is possible. From the study report:
Another article reports that the incubation period may be as long as 27 days.
Given these two statements together, much of what Alum07 regarding the failure to halt the spread of COVID-19 is probably accurate. A bit hyperbolic, but his basic points (likely the virus as already spread to every major city, already to the point where the majority of Americans will be exposed) aren't exactly "irresponsible".
I mean, I wouldn't downvote him for saying that, regardless of the fact that I think he has far too many upvotes to begin with. ;^)
A bit hyperbolic
Its fear mongering.
What were we supposed to do? shut down all airports during the holiday season? The last point is the only accurate one, presuming his previous assumptions are even remotely accurate - at this point the cat may be out of the bag and mitigation is the only course of action.
That would have been a really good start.
This virus exploded like it did because it popped up right before the Chinese New Year, and China, while they've been very effective late, dragged their feet early on and allowed millions to go on holiday out of the Wuhan region during this holiday. This whole thing started because of that migration, and now we're starting a very similar situation in the face here in the US, and stupifyingly little has been done.
Oh sure, areas within California and New York are putting quarantines in place, but at this point, with the incubation period of upwards of 14+ days, the fact that its become incredibly likely that transmission is happening when people don't show symptoms, and the fact we see it actively growing in Washington, California, and New York City all while domestic travel hasn't been restricted?
Any quarantine measures we put in place now that is anything short of the kind of extreme that China put into place is probably not going to be effective. And even then, China was able to effectively contain their outbreak to the Wuhan region, whereas here in the US we already see it spreading on both coasts. Millions in major cultural and transportation hubs throughout this country have already been exposed, and we don't have the kits to test them all. So we can shut the conferences down, we can lock fans out of sporting events, we can cancel school, and make everyone work from home, but the exposure has already approached a tipping point. As I said, its putting a band-aid on a dam break. By the time this is all over, you might not contract the illness, but it'll be incredibly likely that you'll be exposed to it because we reacted far, far too late to be effective. Hell, we've waited a full week since this thread was created for any kind of meaningful measures to be put in place. The time for being proactive is over, and when you're talking about a disease that spreads before you're symptomatic, if you've lost your opportunity to be proactive, you're already too late.
I've been seeing more and more predictions that within 2 weeks time, we'll be looking like Italy is today.
U can do China (shut the entire mofo down) or you can do South Korea (test like a mofo). Will be interesting to see if the "developed" economies are going to choose one of these paths or make their own. Not sure I'm gonna like that answer. Oh and yes I agree South Korea has left the building.
High falootin ($/capita) don't mean you have a lick of common sense.
Cue picture of Xi anxiously eating popcorn eager to see this unfold. Bit unfair that he is donating equipment to Italy.
Or, you can do USA and say "it's getting warmer out, it'll go away, no sweat"
Russia also locked down borders / boarders. Are there numbers for real? If so perhaps the dominant strategy.
It's a shame that pointing out reality gets you a downvote on TKP anymore.
I know here in Scottsdale a confirmed case was just made public at a major health network here in the Valley at one of their hospitals not 2 miles from my office. It's here, and its pretty much everywhere. And the preparation/response has been poor to say the least. It's not hyperbole or fear mongering. Its an honest assessment of the situation. The stock market certainly doesn't seem to think its effects are a joke at this point.
Not sure what about that deserved a downvote, but I sent a leg your way to even out.
pretty sure the down votes are for the notion of "it won't matter" as if we're in it so deep that we shouldn't take any further precaution.
It is true that we are in it deep. It's estimated that there are hundreds to over a thousand of individuals in the state of Washington that are infected at this point (most of which are not yet tested). It's getting worse. Some of the best measures to prevent the spread and save the lives of the immunocompromised, however, are to lessen social interaction. Cancelling events that involve interaction of thousands of people definitely helps.
Everyone should know that telling the dam truth doesn't end well on TKP.
Seriously though, I didn't downvote but consider the statement:
China, with a population of 1.3 billion, has 80,000+ reported cases. And sure, the number of cases in China is undoubtedly far higher, but it would have to be 8,125 times higher than the reported number for the majority of China to be infected. So yeah... I'd lean toward that being much closer to an alarmist statement than reality.
Fernleyhokie makes a good point above about how it will likely spread farther in the US because China has much stricter quarantines in place.
Perhaps but "regardless of what measures are in place" implies stricter quarantines wouldn't make a difference.
I don't think it's that outlandish considering a number epidemiologists are predicting 40-70% of the world population will catch it within the coming year.
That being said, the majority of those who do catch it will either be asymptomatic or it will be nothing more than a cough and maybe a fever.
wash hands frequently, dont touch anything you dont need to, dont go anywhere you do NEED to. This is going to absolutely be inconvenient for most, and unfortunately deadly for some, but the best way to mitigate this is to work as a national community and do our best to protect those that are most vulnerable. If that means cancelling major tournaments or barring entrance for fans to these games then so be it.... given all the threads we've had about cord cutting and streaming services i doubt most of us would be impacted but such a decision.
This is a horrible take that frankly should be edited in case somebody reads it and actually believes it.
When people catch it matters too. We have a limited supply of health care providers, and the people for whom this is a potentially deadly disease will all need access to them as/when they get sick. If they're all going at once, because they were all at a non-cancelled knitting convention or whatever, more of them will die. If we cancel those large gatherings, and cases pop up more slowly, fewer people will die. That shit matters.
Amazon has directed all Seattle and Bellevue employees to work from home until early April. Has anyone's employer taken similar measures?
My employer has extended travel ban to China until the end of April. Not everyone will have the luxury of working from home.
We're not allowed to travel to China, Korea, and Italy unless it's essential to business then quarantine for 2 weeks before returning to work. On top of that personal travel to Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan is extremely discouraged. Which sucks since I was going to visit my sister over there in a few months.
That seems smart. Amazon has suspended all domestic travel as well unless it's deemed business critical and approved by a VP (my brother works for Amazon and is the source of my info).
no unnecessary travel (esp. outside of the continental US), absolutely no travel to the designated hot zones, and use the hell out of WebEx.
Managers were instructed to come up with telework plans, but none have been implemented/enforced yet. International travel is limited, but not stopped except to certain destinations (such as China). All travel is getting an extra look over before approval. Trade shows/conferences scheduled for summer are still on but they all have "stay tuned" caveats attached to them
They had a high rise employee ring the positive bell. Maybe the Amazon crisis response team can run the CDC day times, the country as a side job?
I used to work on Latin telco networks, laughing at the building construction theorizing that in the US it was different. That the way the badger virus ran through Wuhan high rises couldn't happen in the US.
A few nights ago I smell something as I'm working late. Someone smoking. Figured I'd get the hell out of there. Went to the parking lot, noise blaring, I open the door walk right into a pretty hot female boozing it up with a diet coke in her hand. Very strange moment, brunettes aren't my fav but she was working it. Strange occurrence I've chalked up to the devil tempting me. A few months ago got into an elevator and this incredibly hot blonde is in there, pulls a banana out, proceeds to peel and eat it. Anyway, stains on my manhood to leave these opportunities unexplored.
10-11 floors up I could smell the smoke of the party.... bejesus
who would want to party in an indoor very poorly ventilated area with what we know about this virus?
I don't think many if any buildings have very good ventilation systems
seems we're better off in an airplane which have micron level HEPA filtering than we are going to high rise workspaces
the airports and the planes are apparently viral havens because no one bothers cleaning them, and the employees seem more likely to end up being super spreaders
dafuq... I don't know sh about anything anymore
Wtf did I just read.
I... Uhh.... Think it had a stroke.
This reads like the inner monologue from a detective in a comic book.
Don't deny your own pussy touchdowns
International travel has been quietly cancelled many places weeks ago by many. Many places for domestic are 3 VPs and the sick Pope signature to go anywhere. Noone wants to provoke fear. Essential service companies are scared. Many have employees with plenty of vacation... mind kids, mind parents, mind spouse... its going to get weird as many service companies won't have work (if this remains on track to keep growing) while others are going to be going to hazard / overtime pay to get people to come to work. They seem to be guilting employees into commitments.
Nestle? and a few more very large are work at home already.
My company requires an exemption from the head of North America for any travel that requires a flight or an overnight stay. All meetings between sites are to be over the phone or Skype. If you show signs of the flu you are to stay home for a minimum of 14 days or until you have been tested negative for flu and Covid-19.
So I bought some airline and cruise stocks while they have been shredded to below their 52 wk low
Mine just pulled the trigger. All employees who can work from home are instructed to do so until further notice, starting tomorrow. FWIW this is a Fortune-100 company with ~50k employees. I'd estimate that >80% are able to work remotely. Will be interesting to see how many others follow suit.
The good news is that this frees me up to make TP runs to price club every morning! /s
We just had a meeting today telling us to prepare for a potential 2-4 weeks of teleworking. I've never seen my org move this fast on anything save for budgetary furloughs. And this is a DOD unit where a lot of our work is of a nature that cannot be done from home. This is going to crater productivity during the telework period and in the run-up to it as people prepare to find something to do from home.
DOS is in the same deal right now they're working like crazy to enable teleworking on a lot of stuff that really has never been offsite.
I just want to point out that the author of this thread has this as their avatar and it's really funny/creepy in this context.
He didn't think it was very realistic in the movie. Turns out, it was very realistic.
You rang?
That avatar has always freaked me out!
I'm beginning to see push back from the medical field asking the media to stop blowing this "epidemic" out of proportion.
Unless something drastic happens and things change, there's too much money on the line and the NCAA is too greedy to play in empty arenas.
If this was simply a new strand of flu that the vaccines didn't catch, it wouldn't even be talked about. Flu is probably not taken serious enough while this new virus appears to be getting blown out of proportion. Yes, limiting mass gatherings will lessen the spread of coronavirus, thus saving lives. But, the exact same thing could be said for spreading flu viruses, for which many many more Americans will die from this and every year.
Now, I am a stupid Engineer, so somebody smarter than me about these things change my mind and explain the situation better than me.
It's estimated that .01% will die from the flu this year.
COVID-19 has a death rate at 2% and that's a light number as the WHO has just this week said it was at 3.5%
There also 30 year olds going into the ICU (see the a NYC case) where the flu primarily kills the old and the very young.
On top of that it doesn't seem like anyone knows how to contain it which means more people will get sick and it's going to strain the hospital system as there are apparently not enough ventilators/respirators to sustain the amount of people that will be on the hospital eventually.
If your not concerned yet, think about how long it stays alive on a door knob. Days! Now think about the guy that traveled into NYC on a daily basis, didn't know he was sick and walked and touched things all over Manhattan. It takes days/weeks to show up, so an extremely large outbreak is about to go down in one of the largest cities in the world.
On the bright side, New York is only the 11th largest city in the world. I'm not sure why you're predicting an outbreak in Tokyo.
But, is it a virus with worse symptoms or are there more deaths because the most susceptible can't be vaccinated for it.
Just out of curiosity, does it matter?
This virus is completely new to humans. There is a specific Coronavirus that humans can contract and have before this outbreak.
COVID-19 is an interspecies strand of Coronavirus, meaning presumably a strand of the Coronavirus found in a bat mixed with another animals Coronavirus (through feed, bat dung, or blood mixing at one of these wet markets) and the super strand jumped to humans through presumably consumption.
This super strand has not been seen by humans before and no one has any antibodies or immunity to it since it is completely new.
Also, the transmission rate is believed to be around double the flu. R0 for flu is ~1.3. COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2 and 3.
Here is a good article as well to read.
Mind-blowing Exponential Growth and Pandemic Parallels
You are right that more should be done to prevent the spread of flu. Everyone should do better about prevention about getting the flu, including getting the vaccine and putting yourself in a home quarantine when you do get sick.
I think you are wrong about no one would be talking about it if it was the flu. If this was a highly virulent avian and swine flu, the current hysteria would be very similar. One difference though, is that the health community is a little more prepared for a cross-over flu than the current coronavirus. The other types of flu been studied more and putative vaccines have been developed.
This is worse than the common human flu because the death rate is 10 to 30-fold higher and there is no vaccine or approved treatment. Thus, the immunocompromised have no means to protect themselves besides going into hiding. The ability of the corona virus to survive on surfaces seems to be better than flu, so it can spread more easily. Coronavirus also has a higher transmission rate (R0), which is between 2 to 3 and influenza is around 1. If you catch the COVID19 virus, it is near certainty that the progeny of your virus will kill someone. This is especially true if you take no action to quarantine yourself. (notably, it is likely that one's influenza virus progeny is likely to kill someone too, but more attenuated and the immunocompromised have means of prevention and treatment).
And you have to quarantine yourself while not showing symptoms. Households will get this together? There was a report that stated that and smart kids tore it apart. All my life experience tells me smart kids are not really very smart.
But there are strands of flu that are not covered by the vaccine. If we had statistics purely on non-vaccinated flu strains, my guess is that the rates would be similar.
why would you guess that?
a vaccine on a slightly "off" flu strain would still offer protection. it's the cross-over flu strains that jump species that are different enough that it would be way worse.
also, the influenza virus is different from the coronavirus. it's a different genetic code, different set of proteins, different life cycle, but has similar symptoms.
Because the vaccine is highly effective on what it is effective on. At risk patients should all be taking the vaccine. The flu stats get lumped together. If you could just have data on the strains missed by the vaccine, the critical condition and fatal rates would be inflated. As I have said from the beginning, the flu is not taken seriously enough while this virus is being blown out of proportion. (Not to mean it should be taken lightly)
VT I think you are spot on.
University of Washington cancelled in-person classes for the rest of the semester. Everything will be done remotely. I'm sure the NCAA will follow the path of the NHL and NBA, but I don't think it is out of the question to see significant changes to the tournament this year as this disease progresses.
At least a couple large endowment schools started prepping their students to spring break pack as if they weren't going to return this semester.
If u send everybody home to work remotely are they due a refund for R&B? Do the schools make the parents and students sign a form stating they accepted the coronavirus risk of living in a dorm (smaller version of Diamond Princess?) and let them live there? Do the non endowed schools keep the kids there with no option at least in part to wanting to meat a budget and/or political constraints.
Crazy days. I got no answers. 4 me I'd send everyone home, keep paying the staff. Fight every lawsuit to the death. Anyone wanting to stay, I'd make em sign the form.
I don't know the answers either. There have been several posts on r/legaladvice from kids studying abroad that that to return. They were basically forced out of their housing with no refund and I believe no refund for the rest of the tuition either. How that legally plays out, idk. I'd imagine most large schools have some sort of language about studying abroad and unforeseen circumstances.
My sister is in this boat. Her program in Japan was canceled because of this. The two schools involved haven't been very forthcoming on what the path forward is with her tuition.
Just want to point out, if you're like me, this is a great way to convince your wife that it's ok for you to invest in a dank home gym set up.
This is the time that renting is really a pain. I would love to have a garage/basement for a home gym rather than going to a place where I'm annoyed constantly by the presence of others.
Fernley since your out in China, I just read that their is bird flu going through parts of China as well.
Do you know if it's just killing animals or has it effected humans as well? I've heard it has decimated the pigs in China so far.
Avian Flu in China
Honestly for the past 8 to 10 years I've been here I think there has either been bird flu or swine flu going on somewhere in the country every single year. Last two years swine flu pretty much wiped out all the pork supplies domestically and imports went through the roof. Chinese openly discussed that you shouldn't eat Chinese pork. But I can remember 7 or 8 years ago it happened then too but maybe not as badly, or more likely less governmental action on it and certainly less public awareness.
There are a lot of great things about China and a lot of really frustrating things about it. One of the biggest is just how stubborn people in general are about learning and practicing good hygiene in food environments. Don't get me wrong, it has gotten A LOT better over the years but realistically if Korea, Japan and Singapore are the gold standard for urban cleanliness it's not going to get to that point in China for at least two more generations. The biggest jump though will be win Generation Greed dies off.
NCAA isn't the only entity that makes money off the tournament. I'm sure some groups are supporting allowing fans to the games.
The one logistic that I want to know is will they have a supply of toilet paper for the fans if they are allowed to attend? Seriously. What the hell are people doing with all the tp?
I really wish someone would explain the panic buying of toilet paper and bottled water. People, this is a respiratory virus not a snowstorm. The only thing that I can think of is people are panicking because there is so much uncertainty about this virus and they taking control in the only way they know how and that is preparing like for a snowstorm.
I think it because if they have to go into quarantine for 1 month, and they will probably sick, it means using more TP because of extra bathroom visits.
But it is a respiratory virus not the norovirus. You don't get the runs or mud butt with this new virus so why do people need all of this TP?
Still need more TP, since you are going to be using your homes facility more often now that you are not using your offices. For guys that's not a huge deal, but for women it means more consumption of TP for going number 1.
And monthlies.
On a side note, its really hard to find toilet paper at all right now. I actually just ordered a bunch of rolls since its so hard to find where I live right now.
I just remembered we're down to 2 rolls. I better stop on my way home
Because other people are going to buy more than they need? what is left on the shelf?
I work for an east coast grocery retailer. Right now purchasing patterns are totally out of whack, and the hysteria around what people are hoarding is playing havoc with the supply chain. Funny thing is, with the possibility of a 2 week quarantine you would think things like non-perishable food would be big sellers. There is precedent for non-perishable food (large snow storms forecast) so there are models we can use to keep the supply chain moving.
But, since the pattern is new and very unpredictable, its throwing everyone off. The toilet paper and cleaning supply demand has been somewhat predictable, but the weird thing is - NOBODY IS BUYING FOOD! Our non-food areas are getting crushed (yesterday it was bulk packs of facial tissue). Another challenge is that the pack size for toilet paper is so large compared to the usual sellers like soups and other non-perishable food. A trailer full of paper towels doesn't meet the need for a single day, but a trailer load of soup would keep a store in stock for a week of high demand.
When people see some things are running out (toilet paper) they begin to go into panic mode and buy large amounts of unneeded items, which leads to more shortages. Its a loop we keep seeing, and some of it is regional. An item will have a run in a certain group of stores because of perceived scarcity, while other regions aren't selling more than normal demand.
TL/DR - people are buying things irrationally and retailers are having trouble keeping up because its not normal purchasing patterns.
I did some grocery shopping yesterday after work, and noticed that there was still plenty of toilet paper (I was able to get our preferred brand), but liquid hand soap and Clorox wipes were empty shelves. I was actually lucky to get the last few liquid soaps (the one at the kitchen sink was out, so normal replacement timeframe), and there was plenty of bar soap available.
I did, though, get some extra non-perishable food. Canned soup, dry pasta, pasta sauce, that sort of thing, along with some chicken and ground beef to put in the freezer (as power won't be an issue this time). Not a lot, but I'll add a little bit each time I go to the store, rather than get a huge amount all at once.
Single ply restaurant TP.
I swear the Charmin bears and Scott had a meeting and put some weird shit out that there was going to be a TP shortage to boost sales.
Now, don't get me wrong. I prefer TP to the 3 seashells any day, but as far as prepping goes, there are more important things to address.
And I shall not be dark, but beautiful and terrible as the Morning and the Night! Fair as the Sea and the Sun and the Snow upon the Mountain! Dreadful as the Storm and the Lightning! Stronger than the foundations of the earth. All shall love me and despair!
It seems like a lot of people are thinking about being quarantined to their house for a lengthy stretch, and TP is one thing that you don't want to run out of, can buy it up and store it, and if the quarantine never happens, well then you just don't buy any more for a long time. Same with Clorox wipes and such.
The hand sanitizer thing is getting me though. Do people not realize that warm soap and water is exponentially better than gelled alcohol? Did that science experiment with the bread slices not go viral enough?
It is striking to me that for much of the world "washing your hands" seems to be a new concept. I think I am forever done with shaking hands with anyone.
Don't tell me nothing about this...where I work at(the financial sector) i see grown men leaving a stall and not washing their hands...Jon Oliver had something about one of the extremes was gargling with bleach to cure the coronavirus, but for every grown person i see doing not washing their hands(or even making the attempt to run water over your hands if there's no soap, gargling with bleach should be the penalty...
Can you stand on one foot for a short period of time?
The coronavirus is stopping the handshake ... but the 'footshake' is taking its place
Isn't a simple head-nod acknowledgement enough?
Here is a simple infograph I created with some basic sanitary tips that should help stop the spread of the virus.
Hand sanitizer is supposed to be for situations where soap and water aren't practical, not instead of soap and water. More like an "it's better than nothing" approach.
Side Note: Why is the post-it covering the label written on the bag only for the hand sanitizer bag? What are they hiding?/s
I mean as far as being clean yes. As far as making coronavirus be completely ineffective hand alcohol sanitizer is a very good tool. It's also much more convenient than washing your hands constantly.
Be careful with hand sanitizers.
Many are anti-bacterial and not effective on virus.
WHO and CDC says 60% alcohol is effective. Many of the hand sanitizers have altered their formula so they do not include alcohol.
Look on the back for alcohol percentage or that they include coronavirus in the list of effective microbes.
https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/show-me-the-science-hand-sanitizer.html
Yeah this is why I specified alcohol and coronavirus. Hand sanitizers aren't effective against all viruses and only works against coronavirus by dissolving its ability to access your cells.
He got it all.
We're all wondering what's going to happen with the Olympics this summer over here...
Just another thing blown up by 24/7 news. Rock and Roll!
To put things in perspective, check out the CDC website's flu page (as of March 8 at ~7:45 PM):
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
"2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates" states from October 1 through February 29 there have been between 34,000,000 and 49,000,000 (yes, that is 34 to 49 million) cases of influenza in the US alone. These have resulted in 20,000-52,000 (yes that is 20 to 52 thousand) deaths in the US alone. Why don't we eliminate work travel, close schools, close borders, sell equities with abandon, and risk tanking the global economy over the flu? Because we know about it. People are afraid of what they do not understand. And to a large degree, that is understandable. But keep things in perspective.
Yes, this should be taken seriously. Yes, it should be handled as a legitimate public health threat. Just like influenza, hepatitis A, measles ... Yes, we should be working to support people attacking the virus as well as caring for those exposed, which the US and almost all governments are (I make no claim for North Korea). But again, keep this in perspective. The reaction reminds me of what you get when some talking head reporter says something causes cancer when you eat 50% of your body weight of the compound or when some Hollywood face says this vaccine caused whatever they dream up the vaccine causes.
Thank you for more accurately elaborating on what I was saying above. It is a tough conversation. We could save thousands of lives from influenza each year if we lived in a bubble. Unfortunately, we do not and disease spreads from person to person.
You are welcome.
And I don't want to imply in any way that this is not something to take seriously. It is. Things like some compound causing cancer in rodents if you feed the animals greater than their body weight of that compound (I am not making this up) is not something to worry about. I remember telling my students about science and the mainstream press. It went something like this:
Anytime you read, see, or hear anything in the mainstream press about science, take it with a grain of salt.
Anytime you read, see, or hear anything in the mainstream press about cancer, take it with a pound of salt.
Anytime you read, see, or hear anything in the mainstream press about something causing cancer, just assume that it is false.
Corona virus is not false. It is a legitimate issue that is being addressed, probably about as best as we can. I'm not at the CDC, so I don't know. It is a concern and can be scary. But just keep it in the context of other things. I mean what percent of people get their flu shot? I don't always.
Probably because 52,000/32,000,000 = 0.0015 or 0.15%. Whereas the currently understood US cases stand at 21/400, or 5.25% for a virus that's not understood, doesnt have a vaccine or a known recommended treatment, and is most likely spreading undetected through the US right now. Early looks seem to indicate it's an order of magnitude worse than the flu. As for the argument "most people have mild cases and dont get tested,
so we don't know, isnt that the same for the flu? Does everyone who gets the flu go to the hospital and have it confirmed? Not saying everyone should panic, but folks who say "the flu kills lots of people, why worry?" seem to me like they're underestimating things.
Put it this way, would you rather be over prepared for something that's not too bad, or under prepared for something worse than you thought it'd be?
Depends upon how overprepared and how underprepared you are talking about.
And yes, lots of people who have the flu go to the hospital. Again, from the same CDC web page, we have 16-23 million doctor visits and 350,000-620,000 hospitalizations.
I never said "why worry". Not sure who did, though some probably have. I'm just saying keep things in perspective and don't go off the deep end. Not saying that specifically to you, just in general that the reaction of no travel from many companies, closing schools, shrill fear-mongers in the media (okay, that's normal, I get it) and more is going overboard.
Note the flu statistic is influenced significantly by the broad availability of vaccinations and the capacity of the health system to deal with cases (the flu mortality stat is a "case" rate).
With a stronger virus and absent a vaccine, the percent of infections leading to cases will likely go up substantially as well as the mortality rate. Increasing the number of hospitalizations over a shorter duration greatly increases the probability of swamping the capacity of the system.
Slowing the spread helps deal with the capacity issue and buys time for better treatment protocols/development of a vaccination. Panic? No. But erring on the side of an abundance of caution seems like a smarter move every day...it could save thousands and thousands of lives.
I think it's important to keep in mind that the sample size is still extremely small and skewed by the outbreak in the Washington nursing home. 19 of the 21 deaths were elderly patients at that facility.
Yes, totally. And you know the real irony of this? One of my older brothers used to work in that facility as a physical therapist. Long time ago, but it was still ironic seeing that building and hearing Kirkland.
Some epidemiologists are saying that due to the nature of its transmission (pre-symptomatic, in most cases), that 40-70% of the world's population will contract COVID-19. And at a 2% fatality rate, we're talking about 100 million deaths to this disease. Those are absurd numbers. And when you look at this current fatality rate chart (from Wikipedia), you will find that the vast majority of those deaths will be elderly.
It's not going to be pretty.
Source?
Found it. Source here. 40-70% number comes from Harvard's Marc Lipsitch, described as "one of the country's top experts on viruses". However, he quotes a 1% fatality rate; the 2% fatality rate I got from elsewhere, not sure where though.
2% is what CDC/WHO/etc were saying based on the numbers out of China weeks ago. It has fluctuated from there depending on what measurements are being taken. For example, the US numbers push the rate up due to the low testing sample compared to the number of deaths.
The number will probably move around a lot more as the data grows.
It's way too early to be able to definitively say what the fatality rate is for the virus. The 2-3% numbers are estimates we are seeing from confirmed fatalities/confirmed infections, however that is being determined from place to place. That doesn't take into account the fact that there are likely many, many more people infected who are experiencing only mild symptoms and thus not seeking treatment because they don't know they have it. To extrapolate a 2% fatality rate out of 70% of the worlds population is very premature IMO.
Fair enough.
From what I've seen, (and apologies, I've lost the link) in the areas where more thorough testing has happened, and more asymptomatic cases have been identified, the mortality rate is closer to 0.2% or 0.02%, I forget which.
Yeah, I'm probably more concerned for my parents than anything.
That 2% fatality rate is not accurate at all. The only reason it is that high is the US is really dropping the ball on testing for the virus. If we were testing like South Korea is (they have a much better handle on this than the US does) the fatality rate would be significantly lower. South Korea is showing a fatality rate of 0.6% which is still worse than the flu but no where near the numbers you are saying.
Article
Okay, I got the message on the fatality rate. My GoogleFu is not strong today, but what I want to reply with is Lando going "Alright alright ALRIGHT!" after Chewie yells at him in Empire Strikes Back. It's right after this scene:
Even though I put "Lando" in the search field, half the results were still of Wooderson:
That scene I'm looking for is also why I like this shirt so much, because I can use it to reference both scenes. I have it in Navy blue. (Should Navy be capitalized there or not? I don't know.)
Of course, the length that this response is getting makes me think this:
Is the the ADD (which I've been diagnosed with since I was eleven), or am I just being lazy at work? I'm not sure, but this might be the answer:
Either way, if my boss were to see this, this might be his reaction:
Without the "HA HA HA HA", though.
yes, you could make a solid argument that South Korea might be the best one to follow. Spread there before here so they are ahead of the curve, so to speak. Developed country with modern healthcare and healthy population. Yes, by world standards, we are still healthy in spite of the obesity and diabetes and the like. China is not a great model.
What is really terrible is if you get it into North Korea. Lots of people malnourished and exposed to lots of infectious pathogens. People know "night soil"? Hits that kind of population and I don't even want to think about it. Those people have suffered more than enough already.
Yeah, it's gonna take some major government interaction. I mean, I'm no expert in all the minor details in healthcare regulations in the US. However, some of the stuff I'm reading, fear mongering or not, is that it's worse in the US than reported because of early hospital bills. People with minor symptoms were quarantined and wound up with massive hospital bills because insurance said they wouldn't pay. Not to mention deductibles.
Young, infectious people might not do anything about it because symptoms are mild and spread it to more susceptible people; causing more people to get sick. If I wasn't more educated I'd probably continue on thinking it was a regular cold and end up getting lots of people sick, but I have very flexible working conditions and a company that's willing to pay my salary if I'm debilitated, most don't have that luxury.
It's more likely to get out of hand here than in a lot of other countries because of that and the less effective means of government mass quarantine.
there are no anagrams for covid-19!!
GUYS.
THERE
ARE
NO
ANAGRAMS
FOR
COVID-19!!!
WE'RE DOOOOOOOOOMED
No, but coronavirus anagrams to carnivorous
incoming zombie apocalypse confirmed
Ok PETA
And if you spell out 19 it anagrams to "NOT IN EVIDENCE"
Yes, but what does it mean when you add up all of their roman numeral values???
Well, treating the O as zero, that gives you 606. But suppose the O = 60..........
no anagrams for covid-XIX either!!
Regardless of the corona virus, which is awful and I hope no others fall ill to it, especially during the NCAA's... But an NCAA tourney without preening, whining, cheating scumbag Beoheim, and total fraud Roy Williams, is a great NCAA tourney overall. The only thing that will make it better is UVA getting beat before we have to watch Kehei Clark make miracle 3's in the final four.
Finally, a dcwilson take I can support!
Here's a good read/FAQ about the Coronavirus. ArsTechnica does good science and technical reporting, and they seem to have done a pretty good job with this FAQ:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars...
Thank you for posting this. This was an excellent read breakdown of the entire situation.
Would you say that the link is.....teeming with intel? ;^)
Well it's serious enough in NYC that they are discussing shutting down the subway system, especially since the head of the Port Authority just tested positive.
Possibility if closing down the Subway
Not for nothing, St. Louis just had its first positive case in the area on the same weekend we hosted the MVC championship. STL is also scheduled to host round of 64 games.
A girl tested positive and stayed at home per doctor's orders, but her father decided it would be ok to go to a father/daughter dance with her sister. That event was held at a hotel downtown. People are not happy about it, to say the least.
The Italian football association just suspended their season for now
Does anyone know how to use the 3 Shells? Asking for a friend...
I went to Google, who sent me to Reddit, which sent me to this site, where the whole thing was explained:
😐
MLB, NHL, MLS, and NBA are responding by closing the locker rooms to media...I don't know exactly how effective that is, but I guess keeping that handful of people out of the close quarters of a locker room is a start?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2020/03/09/mlb-nba-close-locker-ro...
Confirmed: Fuente will close off spring practice to combat the spread of coronavirus \s
This interesting. I wonder what happened to 2006? In the gray area of politics. This was posted in a Docs office.
Maybe that was posted at a doctor's office but it sure as hell wasn't written by a doctor.
There is so much wrong with that it isn't even funny.
I'm glad this very real doctor's office used handwritten hashtags.
I can't see the image (.cc is blocked) but if it's what I think it is (election year virus scares?), I saw it this morning and there is a lot wrong with that. I agree with shakeit, there's no way a doctor wrote that, as the statement that the virus cases are levelling off is solely due to the scarcity of testing kits, and any doctor would know that. And a lot of the years don't line up. If someone could rehost the image I'll look up some of the data because I really don't want to work right now.
If that was found in a doctors office, it was cause some chump wrote it on a whiteboard at home, took it to a doctors office, took a picture of it, then put it in their car and drove home.
That's a boatload better than what some doc friends of mine have posted on Facebook.
Please remove this.
I have never seen something more overblown in my life. Yes it is serious because because people are dying, but it mainly those who are old (60+), have serious health issues, and/or their immune system is weak... those people should stay home, get tested, etc. We have about 700 US deaths because of coronavirus yet where was the fear from the flu when 80,000 americans died last year?... Once we have more testing results, the death rate is going to be around 1%.
The biggest thing is the media (not trying to be political or taking sides because it goes for both sides/all media)... they need to chill out. This is straight up fear mongering. The market is about to get pushed into a recession because of the fear mongering. The gov't also can't just bail out all these companies. It's only a matter of time where people start losing their jobs and/or convinced they need to sell their stocks/mutal funds/etc when they shouldn't because of all the fear mongering being spewed out.... GREAT TIME TO BUY THOUGH!!! lol
People are freaking out because we just didn't know anything about Covid-19 when it was first arrived. Yes we should do everything to combat it and limit the spread of it but that is just like the flu... IMO the flu isn't taken as serious as it should but because we have all heard of it or had it before and been treated, there isn't as much widespread fear even though we have tens of thousands of people die from it every year.
If you are in an area where there has been some cases, you think you might have come in contact with someone with Covid-19, or you are showing symptoms, go get tested! Even if none of the above and you want to know, go get tested... Living in fear is not the solution. Public needs to go about living their lives.... and wash your hands... I can't believe are now teaching people to do this on a regular bases lol
Getting tested is a lot easier said than done, if you reside in the US
Oh sure, I'm no expert in how easy/hard it is to get tested, I was just saying you should start taking those steps if you think you should.... or just do it for the sake of it.
It's not about taking steps, tests are not available. I have a friend in Cali who went to the doctor with flu like symptoms yesterday and was told "the coronavirus is all around us. There is no way of telling if you have it or not because we don't have tests. Have a mask"
a NC State Senator provided a briefing yesterday that as of 22 hours ago, in the state of NC, we have on-hand from the CDC laboratory supplies to test approximately 150 people. (no typo, 150.) Additional supplies are en route to NC to allow testing of an additional 500 people.
Reports have shown testing, if you manage to get it, to be very expensive. If you're uninsured, and your state isn't footing the bill, and you can't get to a CDC public health lab...you got a couple grand at the ready to go get this test? Most Americans don't.
I understand there aren't enough test kits available. If that's the case in areas, and you think you are showing symptoms, then stay at home if you can. If they are available, go get tested if you deem it necessary.
It is very easy to say, stay at home if you feel sick or have flu-like symptoms. I have a very good job with paid time off and paid sick time, however, most don't. Those that don't, most likely cannot afford to miss several days of work. I don't know what the solution is without getting super political, but it is much more complex than, get tested, stay home.
I agree, it's not just this or that... shouldn't have stated it that way, definitely more complex.
If you can WFH, great. If you can't do that or don't have PTO, then yes, I understand having to go to work but take cautious (and obvious) steps to avoid contact with covid-19... like wash your hands, don't touch your eyes before washing your hands, cough in a tissue/in your shirt.
No perfect answer... IMHO it's just being overblown. Very similar to the flu but never have seen this outcry to this extent though it probably should some since tens of thousands of people die from it.... again just my $0.02
IT IS NOT SIMILAR TO THE FLU.
I would embed the images on here, but I cannot, but please read for yourself.
Covid-19 vs other deadly diseases
They are similar and different. This site has been updating daily.
Link
It is from John's Hopkins.
All estimates... not saying they aren't within range but I have a feeling those fatality rates will be similar to the flu once more testing is done, more access to treatment, and data comes out... again just me though.
Personally, I'm going to listen to doctors and scientists that say the death rate is 20x to 30x the flu death rate over some guy on the internets and his "feelings".
I like to say, Science doesn't exist for us to believe. It exists for us to understand.
Nothing bothers me more than when I hear "I don't believe x/y/z..." when it comes to scientific results.
lol go ahead, probably smart to do such, I never said listen to me or anybody who has the same sentiments... I just think this is way overblown. Agree to disagree, that's fine. I think it's just hypocritical to not see this kind of mass hysteria when the flu comes around even with it being known for years, yet still kills tens and houndreds of thousands of people each year, and people and media go about their lives like nothing is going on.
And maybe someone can correct me on this if I'm wrong but I believe the fatality rate for the flu is just for the strain for which the vaccine/flu shot was created for. Any deaths resulting from other strains aren't a part of the flu fatality rate... IF that is true, then the flu fatality would be higher.
Dude. I think people have been over this, but I'll try one more time.
- This is thought to be 2x as infectious as the flu
- This is 10x more deadly than the flu based on low end estimates and 30x more deadly at the high end
- We have a vaccine for the flu
- People DO talk about the flu. Have you not heard everyone saying to get your damn shot ever year?
People should be panicking, but we should take this very seriously.
Also, I have no idea where you're getting your information about flu deaths vs strains. My understanding is that 0.1% die from flu every year and all strains are counted. Do people even test for the exact flu strain??
Many reported deaths of flu are based off of symptoms too and not a diagnostic biological test to confirm which virus. (Although, pretty safe to say that deaths due flu symptoms are caused by the influenza virus in vast majority. That would likely change if coronavirus becomes endemic.)
- This is thought to be 2x as infectious as the flu
- This is 10x more deadly than the flu based on low end estimates and 30x more deadly at the high end
I am not arguing those stats what they are saying as of now. My thing is that it's still small sample size of data since this is the first time/year we are measuring it. The flu stats are more accurate (and one can maybe assume lower) because we have a large sample size of data, year over year.
- We have a vaccine for the flu
Yes I know that, thanks for confirmation. (I know there isn't one yet for Covid-19... yet)
- People DO talk about the flu. Have you not heard everyone saying to get your damn shot ever year?
If you think I really mean absolutely no one talks about the flu, then I don't know what to tell you... of course you hear it here and there, but not first line headlines anywhere and everywhere. Of course you've have heard it from your friends and family members reminding you get your flu shot.
I read the whole thing... it looks pretty similar. What did I miss?
I agree but I think he is probably referring to the fatality rate for Covid (0.5-4%) comapred to the flu's fatality rate of 0.1%
Obviously that is the biggest different (as of now), but like I said above, this is all still new to the country, with more access to treatment (hopefully an antibiodic soon), and more testing, the data will be skewed more, and IMO will drop closer to the flu %'s
I still think you're going to see larger numbers of people catching the coronavirus than would normally catch the flu. The transmission rates are similar, but are not mitigated by vaccines and antibodies from prior illnesses. So you're going to see a lot more people get it, and with a higher fatality rate, it's going to be much worse.
That may be true, and maybe not. We can only go off what data is reported.
Ex. I'm sure there are many people (especially the younger crowd) in many states/countries who may have had covid-19 but didn't even know it because their immune system already fought it off quickly, and/or they just ignored the symptoms, and didn't get tested. They may have had covid-19 but becasue they didn't get tested, that data isn't available, so the numbers could be lower for that reason vs what is being reported.
It's fun to prognosticate with data points that don't exist
Not procrastinating... it's just not far from reality
--It's fun to prognosticate
--Not procrastinating
I can't read lol, my fault
An antibiotic? Really? Come on man. If you're going to speak on the subject, be informed. If you think you can treat a virus with an antibiotic, then yes the influenza virus and coronavirus are the same to you.
my bad... meant to type vaccine, I'll own that
tbf, there are antiviral treatments, just none are FDA approved for coronavirus yet (obviously). The best over-the-counter antiviral treatment are zinc supplements, which theoretically could provide benefit on mitigating symptoms of coronavirus (improvement of immune response in respiratory areas and thus reduction of coughing, running nose, etc.). But, again, there is no study showing that it provides benefit for coronavirus.
Well, There is this.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-patent/china-lab-seeks-p...
How valuable is a test anyway? Congrats, you have an untreatable virus! Drink plenty of liquid and stay home until you are symptom free for 48 hours. Perhaps we would all be better off to assume every virus is the coronavirus and we wouldn't have so many sick people walking around work and school.
Those that have it will need to be monitored closely for their lung conditions. about 10-18% (the number is a floating target) infected will need assists with breathing in one way or another.
I am following this closely as a close friend has MS, lives on the west coast and the treatment she is receiving is essentially chemo to destroy her immune system.
Prayers for your friend. But, I still don't see the significant benefit of the kit. Most with conditions that will fall into that category will be known to be at risk and should be closely monitored regardless.
People tested to have it can be quarantined since COVid19 is more infectious than other similar illnesses.
Those that do not have it don't take medical resources that they do not need. Many symptoms are similar to influenza. Many people are effected by spring pollens in the air causing dry cough, headaches, etc. They get treated for allergies or influenza accordingly, not COVid19.
These things will save lives.
Most people don't take the time to look at the CDC website, where it posts the criteria for testing. It is clear, straightforward, and based on "science". Take a look on waybackmachine to see how often the policy has changed. A few days ago it had changed 3 times, maybe now 4, in general starting with very clear criteria and migrating to criteria that still are stringent but place much more authority / interpretation in the hands of your physician. With that said, fever, respiratory, contact seem to be the trifecta, and the hurdles in each category are not easy.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html
https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/...
Many of us will be challenged to care and be advocates for others in the weeks to come. If you have to advocate, I'd understand the current cdc guidelines as best you can and frame it properly for your doctors and loved ones. You should also understand laboratories and states are springing up that have some degree of independence from the CDC. I know NY is such a state, not sure which laboratories are independently (from the CDC) available. I would make large bets they will have their own criteria, probably worth understanding prior to engaging with medical doctors if you have time.
Lotsof issues with the guidance and the focus over time, but we're moving toward a time where our issues matter less than what we can achieve with the resources available. Best of luck to all.
A couple of things wrong with this.
First of all, assuming your death rate is correct (that's the current projection), that's about 10x higher than the death rate of the seasonal flu, which is about .1% according to the WHO. Factor in the fact transmission rates seem to be similar to the flu, but are not ameliorated by vaccines or antibodies from prior infections, and you have a virus that is going to spread pretty far and wide. Even if you compare to similar numbers with the flu (34-49 million cases so far this flu season from preliminary estimates, and I think those numbers will be higher for the above reasons), that would lead to about 340k-490k deaths at a 1% rate, that population skewed towards older Americans. This is definitely something to be concerned about.
The market was overdue for a correction, and we have an oil price war now going on between Saudia Arabia and Russia, that's what is driving the market down this week. The last two weeks, it was the market disruption due to manufacturing disruptions in China over Coronavirus, not public fear stoked by news. That's part of it, but not the major cause.
The "fear mongering" as you put it does have a use, though. If it gets people to take this virus seriously and implement needed changes (like washing hands, as you pointed out later), then it's not a bad thing. If people start to stay home from large events, then that's not a bad thing (as I point out below). The media may be sensationalizing some aspects of this, but they are still imparting important information that the public NEEDS to know right now.
You can't. There is a shortage of testing kits, so you can't just go ask for a test. They are reserved for those who are either (a) symptomatic, or (b) have a documented exposure to someone who is a known or suspected carrier, and there aren't enough tests to cover those two cases at the moment.
Completely agree with this....to a point. As was pointed out elsewhere in this thread, large crowd events can get lots of people infected at the same time, which would eventually overwhelm medical facilities. If people stay home, the rate of infection is more manageable, and hospitals can handle the load. And remember, there are still other injuries and illnesses going on, so having medical facilities at or below their capacity is important to prevent unnecessary deaths from other causes.
I know, right? *smh*
My go-to for hand-washing timing: The Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear. Chant this while you're washing your hands, and it will be about the right amount of time.
P.S. I posted this above, but a repost wouldn't hurt. ArsTechnica has posted a really good FAQ on the Coronavirus, and everybody should read this.
I am aware of this as well. But I didn't mean public fear is what is driving the market down. Obviously it has outside factors, including the oil war, but the media coverage of it has been wayyy overblown IMHO. Sure the people need to know about the situation, but it's the redundacy of what we already know as well as these opinionated/pundit shows that don't offer facts, just opinions, that isn't helping. That is what I have mean't by it being way overblown.
Gotcha. I don't watch those shows, so they don't factor into my decision making. I'm sure they do for some people, but they really shouldn't.
There's also a huge drop in manufacturing from China to contend with. This has a ripple effect across MANY industries (shipping, manufacturing, etc.)
Well said. I am getting kind of tired of people joking about Covid-19 thinking it is silly for people to be concerned. I'm concerned about the flu as well but, I'm not making jokes and memes about that either. It is perfectly fine to take this shit serious for your reasons above. I can't believe the US has been aware this long and we are so far behind now that is inside our borders. It is going to end up worse here because we aren't going to be able to tweet or meme it away.
We're so far behind because (a) we had problems developing our own test kit, and (b) we declined to use the WHO's test kit to bridge that gap, according to Politico. We don't know at this time why that decision was made.
Yep, Seems a lot of people were standing over here judging China for their response as if we couldn't possibly have the same or worse struggles. IMHO I think we will have worse issues because of some egos not taking it seriously and being prepared. I mean we started off by having unprotected military and health officials interacting with quarantined people on a flight and then they left work and went out town to party. There are multiple instances of times when it would be obvious for people to not go out to parties or large groups and still do it. It blows my mind.
Yet people are complaining about media overhyping this.
DING DING DING!
I'm laughing at those on social media that are spitting stats about Covid-19 vs Influenza, making light of Covid-19, then getting pissed at someone who went to a dance. Wait, I thought you said it wasn't a big deal?!
If this ends up having a smaller impact than expected, it's going to be because we took it seriously. Improved hygiene, avoiding travel/crowds, self quarantine where appropriate, etc. Then all the mouth breathers are going to shout: "COROna vIrus wAs ALL A BunCH oF buLlSHIT" and not realise what could have been.
Same thing they continue to say about y2k. They do not know the massive amount of work that got things prepared and the work afterwards that needed to be done to fix the things that were missed.
I bring that up every time people talk about "X is going to blow over just like Y2K" (not that it's very often). Yeah, Y2K blew over, but it's because of a fuckton of work that was done to make sure there wasn't any impact.
my report card said 1900 instead of 2000 so it was definitely a big deal
I'm a software engineer and I just had an off-hand discussion with one of my bosses about Unix Y2K and that's not happening until 2038. So yeah, a lot of planning and work goes into minimizing the impact from things like this, in contrast to them just "blowing over"
"The biggest thing is the media (not trying to be political or taking sides because it goes for both sides/all media)... they need to chill out. This is straight up fear mongering. The market is about to get pushed into a recession because of the fear mongering."
The market is being pushed into a recession because of the collapse of the Supply side directly caused by this virus coupled with Saudi Arabia and Russia deciding that now is a great time to get pissy about oil prices.
What you call fear-mongering by the media could also be seen as exercising abundant caution. I much would rather have the media scare people into staying home and washing their hands, thus preventing the spread of this virus, which will actually save lives as opposed to them just saying, "Hey, this is no big deal. YOLO" and end up with a bunch of unnecessary deaths.
I am aware of the oil war which obviously some of it can be related to Covid-19 but I was saying IMO I think the overblown part of it is that they are excercising an absurd amount of caution when compared to the flu we see every year that kills off tens of thousands of americans... majority of people who are overreacting/taking the most caution will more than likely recover from it. As stated before, this is mainly affecting old people, people with shit immune systems to begin with, and/or previous health conditions.
Based on the Ars Technica article (updated daily and linked elsewhere in this thread), 80% of the cases are mild to moderate, 19% are severe (requiring hospitalization) and 1% are critical (life threatening or resulting in death) [info as of 3/9]. This is based on WHO data. The problem is the mass media is focusing only on the 1% and implying (either intentionally or not) that the majority of cases result in this outcome.
And inciting panic is not good as it drives people and organizations to make irrational decisions.
Edit: fixed %'s
Well said, this is what I was trying to get at as well.
It's not panic. Entire countries are shutting their borders down.
nice animation, it highlights the key issue here. whether the fatality rate is greater than 5% or less than 1% is going to depend greatly on the medical care that the 15-20% of infected people who come down with a severe cases receive. Ideally all severe cases get hospitalized and get placed in ICU as needed. (this is basically what's happening in S. Korea, combined with an infected population that skews younger, their fatality rate is <0.5%)
If 1/2 of the US Population (330 million) eventually gets infected by this disease over time, that is up to ~33 million people who will need hospitalization for several weeks each. Hospital capacity in the US is around ~1 million beds, and I doubt all those beds are all empty and waiting for COVID-19 patients. (let's assume 500,000 beds available). So it's quite important to stretch those 33 million severe cases out over as long a period of time as possible (like 5 years) to avoid totally overwhelming our healthcare system. And remember, hospital beds are just one medical resource, masks, IV's, latex gloves, ICU beds, antivirals, respirators,etc.. all have limited quantities as well) .
A further side benefit of slowing the spread is that more people would benefit from a presumed vaccine and never get infected at all.
According to the WHO, it is unlikely the virus is transmitted much before symptoms present. Source is the Ars Technical article which specifically cites the WHO on that statement.
It is unfortunate but politicians have a vested interest in fear mongering to undermine their opponents or be able to say that they saved the world when it over and the media want to do the same to drive clicks and ratings.
The problem is that there is a whole industry built upon the ability of employers to fire employees if they don't like it when they stay at home when they are sick
Sounds like a great case for mandated sick leave.
As long as 'at will' working conditions exist, it won't matter what mandates are out there, you can pretty much get fired for any reason and the companies are essentially untouchable.
I assure you companies are not untouchable, and most companies want to do the best for their employees and make their jobs as flexible as possible. At the end of the day there are a ton of variables at play that dictate company policies. Smaller companies in particular have a very tough time with such issues given the nature of labor resources.
I think you meant industries, as in multiple industries that exploit low-wage (and to some degree high-wage) workers who can't afford to be fired for taking care of themselves.
Except the media is saying Panic with the way they are presenting the stories and the shock value footage they are showing. You have people forcing planes to make emergency landings because someone sneezes a couple times. That is my issue with all the coverage. People are panicking because of the media. That's why there are no masks available to health care workers, no hand sanitizer and no toilet paper.
people are panicking because they are people
the media is going to run stories about what people are interested in, and a new disease that everyone is vulnerable to catching is an interesting story with a lot of drama. did I mention that people love drama and love to panic?
Supply chains are disrupted, resulting in a supply-shortage shock. It's due to (initially) China shutting everything down for 2 months. Korea and Japan are on similar trajectories.
https://fortune.com/2020/02/28/apple-coronavirus-iphone-supply-chain/
Did the media cause fear mongering in China?
I can't speak with China but obviously there is outside factors being affected because of the supply chain shortage. What I am getting at with the fear mongering is these opinionated/pundit shows (across all media) on every day and hour, spewing opinions and not facts.... If we are a market correction, that's fine, but this needs to be relayed to the public as too many people are selling off their assets based off what they are hearing from the numerous pundit/opinionated shows.
The market was heading for a recession one way or the other. Covid-19 just happens to be the pin that popped the balloon. It has nothing to do with the media, although they certainly have not helped the situation.
Stock valuations propped up by increasing deficit spending. A real estate market overheating due to historic low interest rates getting lower. Unneeded tax cuts during a booming economy. There are simple economic explanations for all of this that have nothing to do with fear mongering.
The entities impacted the most right now by the market downturn are going to bounce back in the near future. Seeing the travel industry stock prices halved in a week is way too much of an overreaction. Those prices will bounce back quick and we'll be right back to where we were earlier.
I mean of course there are different/other factors for a recession, but that was my point originally of the media overblowing it... Are they directly at fault? of course not, but like you said, they haven't done the public a service by how they are reporting it.
Friend who works at McKesson in Richmond said an employee there just tested positive yesterday.
I'll continue traveling around fishing, not worrying about the COVID until the asteroid wipes us all out on April 29th.
The Ivy League has canceled their men's and women's basketball tournaments.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/10/ivy-league-conference-tournament-canc...
Harvard is also telling students to move out by March 15, classes to be moved online.
edit: Fordham, Columbia and Princeton too
edit2: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/us/coronavirus-university-college-cla...
So no college graduation for the class of 2020...that sucks.
All state of Maryland employees (at least in the academia field) have been told they cannot leave the state. With Spring Break upon them, they are looking to do 2 weeks of on-line classes after the break is over.
Guys, I just want to clear one thing up, despite social media rumors, doing rails of coke and chugging bleach will not CURE coronavirus.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-drinking-bleach-cocaine-false-r...
It is only effective as a preventative measure.
Right. Because you can't get the coronavirus if you're dead.
I have not seen a single clinical trial on this, double blind or no.
It causes the double blindness
Now this is good population control, along with Tide Pods.
Just to gauge everyone's views on this:
By the time this is over, do you think you will personally know someone who dies from COVID-19?
I think I will know someone whom was made sick by it.
I know I will know someone whose business was impacted by the supply disruptions already in place.
This is by far the biggest threat of this virus. The impacts right now on global supply chain in US business is pretty tough take another major country to Italy level and there are significant global economic impacts.
I think I will know someone who dies from COVID-19.
Yes, I do think so. I have 3 grand parents in their 90s and my In-laws are in their late 60s and smoke. My parents are also in their 60s.
The chances I will know someone who dies in my family are pretty high of any if those people get infected.
Knowing someone who is not immediate family is also pretty high as well.
Update: 3 People in my family have/had COVID-19.
My cousin apparently had it, and my aunt had It last week, but was just sick with flu like symptoms.
My uncle just went to the hospital today because he thinks he has it due to shortness of breath.
My cousin had low grade fever, but no other symptoms and we think she got it while she was recently in Connecticut a few weeks and then it spread through my family.
They are putting my uncle in self quarantine and will not have the results of his tests for 5 days.
This is all in Miami. My uncle is in his early 60s and had dinner with Grandparents in their 90s around 2 weeks ago. I'm hoping they are in the clear.
Yes.
Everyone I know in the medical field is not concerned, so I am not. If that changes I'll hit the panic button and survive on spam and peanut butter in my apartment until it blows over.
Anecdotally, I am in the medical field and almost everyone I've talked to is concerned. Not panicked, but noting that we need to take this seriously now. We are two weeks behind this thing. We all need to begin practicing a degree of social isolation and sacrificing going to concerts/sporting events/cruises, etc. Honestly, we shouldn't have fans at the ACC tournament or March Madness (see South Korea). Because once the cat is out of the bag it is very very difficult and painful to put it back in (see Italy, China).
Geezus H. Jehoshaphat..
There are almost 400 million people in the US. If we catch 100,000 cases I'll eat my laptop... after I wash my hands for 30 minutes and dry them using a roll of black market toilet paper.
No. I think the chances of my personally knowing someone who dies from this are very, very low.
A lot of y'alls parents should have seriously cut back on your Walking Dead supply.
This guy remind anyone else of Blackshear?
Get your hot sauce ready.
I mean, I definitely think we'll see a huge number of cases here...
But... China only has about 80k cases and they have 4x as many citizens as the US. And on top of that, this also relies on the US being able to effectively and accurately test who is actually infected, and I don't have much faith this will ever happen before it just naturally recedes.
The only way to find the true denominator, which is pretty beneficial for true statistical analysis, is to test everybody. Of course that's not going to happen.
Just live your life. 3 ft of personal space, wash your hands, and chill the fuck out.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487329-ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR11CM-Ue_6_QRsEyzPO6ZFljSrYvffPSkD8LuYElXsLBvNvE2nKEwaKsF8
Just making sure you have time to get your hot sauce ready.
I'd like to see the data that substantiates such a radical difference between confirmed cases and the 100,000 cases she says are in Ohio. Not doubting it, just would like to see how that data could be translated to determine actual cases vs confirmed cases in other states.
We've only tested 11000 people. We have no idea how many people have it.
Correct. So I'd like to see the data supporting a specific claim that 1% of the population of Ohio, or approximately 100,000 people, have the virus. If we don't know, isn't it somewhat irresponsible to throw out a number like that, given how people tend to panic and act irrationally?
Having it and having it with symptoms are not the same. There may way more people that have it and don't show symptoms, that can also transmit it freely than show signs of it.
Ignoring it and allow for spread and potential large loss of life because people don't want to believe it's a real threat is a problem on the flip side. A threat is something that can be mitigated, and this is just that...if people do the right things. Taking the threat lightly and allowing for it to get out of control is also irresponsible.
My post about the 100,000 what just to point out that #sauce should be prepared for the computer.
Fair enough. And for the record, I'm not one who thinks this is an overreaction to a minor threat. Hopefully my desire to see actual data and not make believe "potential" numbers didn't come across differently than how I feel.
Yeah I'm with turkey here. If we are going to get after people who say it's being overblown and using imaginary data, I'd like to withhold rhetoric regarding an explosion of cases that we also don't have data for.
A lot of information could be true, but we really aren't doing enough testing to know.
Thank you for saying more clearly what I was trying to say. Information and "data" too far from the truth in either direction isn't helpful. Erring on the side of caution is absolutely the right call, but unnecessarily inciting panic isn't productive.
South Korea is as close to testing everyone as we're going to get
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-south-korea-compa...
And so yes this thing is much worse than the flu. The problem comes in when the hospitals become overwhelmed. Take into account the problems faced by front line providers in medicine, utilities, police, fire, military and you have the potential for significant societal disruption. This is a time for caution and looking out for one another without increasing R0.
I'm kind there with you L, if the front line providers had immunity to this thing, and if the ICU bed capacity could handle what was coming, I think these stats would be much closer. I think the US would be ready. I worry that is not the case.
I really like Peter Attia's approach to sharing what a doctor thinks after talking to the experts. His podcast does pretty well in finding good content, and I find I can understand most of his sessions, with google filling in the missing bits.
Peter Attia Q&A #1
A little emotionally hard to hear, but I'm going to suck it up and see if some of it can help.
The sheer fact that the cost of the test is high is going to mean we can't test for it. People aren't getting tested because they don't want a couple thousand dollar bill, regardless of availability. The same with care. This is gonna explode in the coming weeks, the only silver lining is that if it's not as bad as reported for most demographics.
Leonard taking one last picture of his cherished laptop before he eats it
Hahahaha. My avatar.
I hope you know we are going to hold you to this.
Fernley, when you get a moment, can you tell us what your personal experience was, since you have been in the think of it in China? Or as much as the Chinese government will allow you to say without being deleted.
I know everyone here is civilized, but here is another useful video on the intricacies of washing your hands
To those who know more about this situation:
Has South Korea set the precedent on how to effectively test for and contain this virus? They have already seen their new cases slowing rapidly, and my understanding is that with their efficient testing methods they are showing a death rate under 1%.
edit: I ask because I've seen a lot of discourse that the methods used by China would not necessarily be replicable in many other countries because the combination of their authoritarian government coupled with a socioculturally fit population to put things aside for the greater good. However, South Korea seems like a situation that could be more replicable in many Western countries.
Tons of schools, including UVA & Duke, are moving to completely online classes for the rest of the semester (UVA will reevaluate in April).
I don't know what VT's plans were in regard to the CBI tournament, but I would say that this ends them if VT decides to follow suit.
UPDATE: Shockingly, the CBI has cancelled first:
VT is next.
I wonder what happens to classes with lab components. Yikes.
I had never thought about that, even though I took far too many labs. I would have to imagine that they would make up some online assignment with the same learning objective. Obviously not the same, but probably the best they can do.
Sorry if this has been discussed above but does anyone know how this would affect spring practices? Like are all these schools that are closing forfeiting all that practice time? Or will the athletics players be on campus?
UVa has banned all gatherings of more than 100 people
The good news is that this won't impact their Spring Game next month
They also announced all online classes starting after Spring Break. VT will be right behind them I expect. Once one university does it, the others will too.
I bet we start seeing mass cancellations of spring games in the next 2 weeks. Cincinnati and Michigan have already cancelled theirs.
They carved out a nice exception for sporting events. But refused follow up questions on why. Seems pretty shortsighted.
At a certain point, just cancel the remainder of the season. We're eventually looking at a tournament where no crowds are going to be allowed anywhere, and the conversation will turn to why we're even having the games anyway.
Just cancel the remainder of the NCAA, NBA, NHL, and XFL seasons until this is put under control.
Just saw where the Ivy League is cancelling all Spring sports.
Have 1000 people ever gathered together to watch the Cornell v Brown Womens' Lacrosse game?
Essentially gonna be a TV only event, gonna be wild to watch such quiet games
NBA has suspended the season after Rudy Gobert has a presumed positive test
You mean this Rudy Gobert?
maybe that's how he contracted it
Doubtful. This was like a day or two before he got confirmed, right?
Yeah, I think that video was dated to Monday and he was confirmed yesterday.
A big part of me thinks that this was a bad career move on his part. Especially if someone connected to the Jazz ends up succumbing.
Tom Hanks has coronavirus.
This is too far. America must declare war on the coronavirus.
But I thought we had it contained last week
Mission Accomplished
If this ends up being coronavirus, the tourney will be cancelled within an hour.
Holy shitsnacks. If he knowingly coached sick, that's not just incredibly irresponsible, it's borderline negligence
Luckily it looks like the common cold but so incredibly stupid given the current environment.
Lot of talk going around that the NHL is going to suspend their season tomorrow as well. Wouldn't be surprising since the NBA and NHL share some arenas.
Chances of the tourney happening are dropping by the hour.
And the next shoe is dropping. The speed of news tonight is surreal. This is a textbook example of what exponential growth is like.
EDIT: This is the women's basketball WAC tourney.
At this point I don't think it's Covid-19 and the NCAA Tournament, I'm thinking it's more like Covid-19 versus the NCAA Tournament, and I've already filled out my bracket. Come onnnn coronavirus, daddy needs a new quartet of shoes!
DOW Jones is in freefall. For the 3rd time this week, the markets have had to undergo a 15 minute halt of trading for passing the 7% losses mark in a single day. We are down nearly 30% of the high that was reached just a month ago.
Dow at its lowest since 2017, and we've still got a ways left to go.
Fun time to be a CFP(r) right now...
Brazilian president just tested positive for COVID-19
Donald Trump is one of the people he's been in close personal contact with the last few days
Not quite, Bolsonaro's aide tested positive, but the aide did in fact meet with Trump. As of yesterday, WH maintains that Trump has not been tested. Bolsonaro has been tested, after calling the crisis a fantasy.
https://www.axios.com/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-trump-meeting-mar-a-l...
And Boris Johnson came into contact with UK's health minister who tested positive for the virus. Yet he refuses to be tested.
Birds of a feather...
It's sad that the demographic which has largely bought fully into this being a hoax and overblown is pretty much the demographic most at risk of dying after contracting it.
Fake virus tracker website alert.
There is a fake Coronavirus tracker website that could infect you with a Trojan if you visit it. It is masquerading as the Johns Hopkins website so make sure of the webpage url before visiting the real Johns Hopkins site.
So going to track the virus could give my computer a virus?
Glad someone else got the irony of that.
It's almost a catch 22 situation... We know that you can still have Covid-19 with or without symptoms but people without symptoms who want to get tested are being pushed away (or aren't as high on the priority totem poll) for those who are showing symptoms. So now the ones not showing symptoms could have passed it along and not even know it. The main problem is not being prepped enough/not enough testing kits so people can freely get it.
That's why I don't get too wrapped up in the infection/fatality rates (at this moment) because there could be tens and hundreds of thousands of people (maybe more) that are infected who don't even know it, and haven't been tested OR could have possibly fought it off already. It's a serious matter but we have such a small (but ongoing) sample size that IMO that we shouldn't panic over the 1-4% fatality rate because it is only going off the severely limited and data we have or don't have.
Hopefully we can pump more test kits out soon so you can freely get tested like people can walk into their local CVS and get a free flu shot.
What "we" are finding the biggest issue is worldwide. No common treatments for this "family" of illnesses are working. Basically "we" are treating symptoms and providing the body supportive care, ventilators and fluids for example but normal drugs like say for flu aren't having an impact.
https://www.al.com/sports/2020/03/florida-state-basketball-declared-nati...
The state of Florida is "declaring" Florida State national champs. LOL