Discuss and share any recruiting topics from August 2020 that don't warrant their own thread
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Comments
As stated in the last thread before it was locked, BAG was looking for LAHokie to compare notes with I guess lol.
This applies to the everyone, but I will address it specifically here. Unless this Twitter account is providing actual Virginia Tech recruiting news or information (vague GIFs after other outlets have broken news or posted beyond their paywalls don't count), embedding its Tweets is simply noise. Moving forward we will moderate that with nukes and then bans.
link to the 2021 Unofficial Big Board (google sheet)
August 2020 247 Embeds:
(not exhaustive, and no particular order):
[copy pasted from GGC's post in pt1 thread, but I've removed Poole and Watson who committed elsewhere]
Canon Boone
Robbie Ouzts
Benji Christian
Deven Lee
First time I had noticed those target #s on the linked google sheet. Going by that, we have the following to fill:
1 RB
2 TE
2 OT
1 DE
3 DT
1 S
Done at QB, WR (counting Lofton and Black) and LB (Lawson).
Does that sound about right? Do we have that many spots?
I'm thinking more like
1 RB
1 TE
2 OL
1-2 DE
2 DT
1 CB
How do we feel about Dawkins? I keep seeing him tweet pro-VT stuff but don't see much here.
Maybe doing it for the likes/follows? *shrugs* I've seen comments from LA about we got in too late, but we made a big dent at the very least. Who knows...
Yeah I think it's too little too late. He does genuinely really like Tapp and we've been gaining ground, but I'd be very surprised if he left the Carolinas
Well, see, all TNT have to do is sell him and Williams on being an unstoppable duo, and bingo presto, you've got fun on a bun. I'm fairly convinced it will be exactly that easy.
Someone hit me with a skipper gif👀
Does this particular Cannon go "Boone"?
It goes BOOOOOOOONE
KABOOOOOONE!!! just updating a classic
God, look at that scoreboard.
Glorious day
Boooooooooooooooone with a pancake
THE VTU
Is that all the silent commits? 🤔
No
Can anyone remind me when Malachi Thomas and Bryce Goodner updates are realistically expected for 247?
Wednesday, August 19th is what I've seen on 247. I think rivals is rolling out updates in the next few weeks as well.
Both get updated on Wednesday this week👀
Thanks! Will be very interested to see how they rate Thomas, his film is pretty good to my untrained eye
Will default to a 3 star like they all do
Both got 86 ratings by 247 in house system
Does anyone know how much does Tech Football camps cost?
I seem to remember it being $400 or $500 for the multiday thing I attended back around 2001. I'm sure that's not the least bit helpful.
Down to the Hokies & Ole Miss
August 24🙏🏾 pic.twitter.com/Xh9E9wqmBv— 𝒌𝒆𝒏𝒋𝒊 𝑪𝒉𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒏 (@KenjiChristian5) August 18, 2020 " target="_blank">
Coach Davidson tweeting out a happy gif...
not embedding
drink
Let's hope Lane doesn't try to hit him with the bag again between now and then. Seriously though location proximity is the biggest thing working against us here, but I still feel solid
Again? Looks like Joey freshwater is making himself at home
Lane is probably about the lowest in the SEC when it comes to being willing to "toe the line" or do whatever it takes to get the players he wants. Hugh Freeze ruined the whole throw the money at the big time nobody believes you landed them type of recruits that's too suspicious to not get caught, so they go middle of the way and find some diamonds and some higher end players that have no business being around his program, and they "convince" them to come play. Not saying that Lane is the only one that's FAR from true, but in the SEC I would say he's at the top of list for sure
I know Kenji C is committing next week but who else is announcing soon?
I'll update it with solid numbers but it looks like 247's update has partially hit the website. Class is now 38th overall, 10th in the ACC, and the average rating got a small bump to .8525. Neither Goodner or Thomas have listed ratings, but they're slotted in between players now.
Bryce Goodner is between Mattheus Carroll (.8593 composite) and Da'wain Lofton (.8573 composite).
Malachi Thomas is between Will Johnson (.8499 composite) and Chance Black (.8485 composite).
Rivals is apparently doing a rankings update next week, so that could cause some composite shifts as well.
10th in the league but 1st in our hearts. Lets try to remember that guys
So you're okay with being responsible for Virginia Tech's mediocrity then????
/s
Hey if TKP wants to crowd source me $30.5M then yes, I will take full responsibility.
Thanks Dave
It's dave.
I stand corrected.
via GIPHY
Also, as of 9pm 8/19/20,
there are 6 ACC teams between #31 and #39 nationally, all within 10 points of each other,
VT is at 181.16 total and average 85.25
To me, tenth in the ACC is really more like in a tier from #6 (190.79) to #11 (181.13),
or based on average rating, a tier between #5 (86.2) and #11 (85.12)
So we're one Tyleik Williams away from being in the top half of the conference. Got it.
Spot on actually. Adding just Williams would put us .2 shy of Pitt for 6th. Williams and Christian would put us a couple points shy of Louisville for 5th.
F*ck Pitt!
F*ck Narduzi!
F*ck Louisville!
F*ck Petrino!
And F*ck Pitino for extra measure!
Sorry, had to get that out of my system.
Add in Hollifield and we're at 195.64, which would be 26th overall, just short of Louisville.
anyone know what he's waitin on? Seems like he should've committed publicly like a year ago with how we're all just sort of taking for granted how he's part of this class
He's waiting for after we win the Commonwealth Cup game. /s
Who cares about recruiting rankings. If outside of top 10 it doesn't matter. Coach em up, get kids with smarts, Win in the trenches! Mich St, Wisconsin, TCU, and others get it done and so will we.
Michigan St. record over the past 10 years: 92-40
Wisconsin: 102-34
TCU: 87-42 (includes two years in a non-P5 conference)
VT: 84-49
Wisconsin is clearly better over that range, the others just aren't (<1 win/season). And this covers what has been a bit of a down stretch for Tech. If the goal is to regress to the mean, I think you're right, we'll likely improve some. But the idea that either MSU or TCU is throwing out lessons that we should be picking up seems sketchy to me.
Among FBS teams over the last ten years, the Hokies rank tied for 24th with Texas A&M, although with 7 fewer games played. Improving by 1 win per year pushes us to 12th, in the company of Stanford, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, and San Diego State.
Among P5, we're 19th or 20th, depending on if you want to count TCU's non-P5 seasons, 11th if we averaged 1 win more per season.
Which, in fairness, does sort of line up with what hcs said. Unless you're in that top tier, there's a bit of a mess around that second tier.
Other than the top 4 or the bottom four in the ACC, the difference is utterly meaningless.
We should be in the top 4 or 5. Clemson FSU Miami UNC then is. Year to year variation is acceptable, but that should be the consistent trend
Sure 4 is "better" than 5 and so on.
In most years there isn't much difference in real terms between #4 and #10 or so in the conference. Sure, you can beat your chest that you came in 4th instead of 7th or whatever (#21 nationally instead of #33), but in practice it means little. One or two of higher ranked guys get in trouble or flunk out or miss home or just don't measure up and you're effectively #9 or #10. Or vice versa...you find a couple of diamonds in the rough...
I think the perception of the pecking order matters much more than you are giving it credit. And to say that a consistent #10 school has the same talent level as the consistent #4 school is silly. You used to be able to tell when we took the field with duke and wake forest that we completely outclassed they athletically
Just because we used to incredibly outclass Duke doesn't mean we've gotten worse. I'd argue with them bringing Cutcliffe in, they've gotten drastically better than they used to be. Same with Wake. Granted, 4 years ago or so, we had gotten worse (see the 0-0 regulation game), but they've gotten better the past couple years.
Alum07 did a piece about this over the summer, it basically showed over the past half decade, the average recruit rating in the ACC has been rising, while the average recruit rating at VT has stayed steady. Basically means that VT has not kept up with inflation. This is not good.
It could mean a bunch of things. That's just one of them.
Thomas was on an all State list in Georgia right? How is he still so lowly ranked?
He was all-state in 3A in a state that goes up to 7A. Also, rankings are based on multiple factors like potential, how well they translate to the next level, and in some cases they even factor in eligibility concerns. Lots of very productive HS players don't excel or translate well at the college level. An 86 rating on 247 seems fair enough to me all things considered.
That's fair but his composite is including some much lower rankings from the other two sites is it not? So yes one site has him rated ok, the other two not so much. Just feels like another kid getting the short "ranking" stick which then reflects negatively on Tech recruiting perceptions.
I think the grading is more than fair. He was the offensive player of the year for 3A in Georgia. That's wonderful but can he repeat this level of production? How would he fair against a high level of opponent?
I'm not sure if he will have a chance to give a repeat performance this season. If he does his grade would go up. I am hoping he will be a diamond in the rough and fit well with our offense.
Tech gets the short end of some situations, but I never thought "recruiting rankings" would be one I'd hear
Not a 4 star as was predicted on this site.
I mean, his tape and numbers don't change. If that's what people liked, they presumably still like them.
It is pretty hard to bump a guy into 4 star status that has not played a senior season. Let's hope he plays like a five star for VT.
Agreed. I've never seen a rising senior go from unrated to 4 star
Payoute was unranked the June heading into his senior year and then jumped up to a .94 on 247 but that's about the only example I can think of
JJB and Asante have both done it recently as well
Yeah this post dunking on you saying he would for sure be an 88 really annoyed me. If you want to say you think he'll be rated this or that fine, but don't act like you have some insider info if you don't.
Ok if you don't want my thoughts I'll shut up then
No. Please continue.
Yes please
More of a delivery issue, feel free to share your thoughts on anything! I think sometimes it's just important to be clear about what is based on inside information vs what is personal opinion.
It was a personal opinion I thought he would be ranked at .88 but I am a little bias but I do like Flim alot
So how are we feeling about good news today?
Was just wondering if Kelvin was going to surprise us today, but I don't think that is going to happen. Was hoping some of the insiders had some info.
Nah it's gonna be OU or PSU
OU bound, but do expect some good news on our front pretty soon, probably within the next week
Damn why would any top defensive player go to OU?
That should be the question of the decade. What's the selling point? "We can help you slowly get worse through our lackluster defense and almost exclusive focus on offense"? Maybe they told him they want to change that and they need one good defensive player to start the dominoes falling?
The first domino...
Possibly Monday?
Just picked up a Transfer from ill state, Cornerback, Devin Taylor.
He must have known Fu from back in the day /SSS
6-1 200lbs. 6th in the FCS in passes defended last season.
Looks like an under the radar draft prospect.
Thank Adibi for this one. He was a huge part of this move
Much needed addition to the CB room if football is played.
NCAA Standing By:
He's a grad transfer so the NCAA can't block this one.
I know. I'm sure they'll try though.
Insert
"Famous last words," or
"Watch this," or
"NCAA: hold my beer," or
Etc.
It's us, they have a weird vendetta, they will/will try to block it.
seeing "Coach Fuller" in black and white gives me chills
The Bolles school uh. Will have to look this kid up in local media.
Edit: Ponte Vedra high school transfer and son of ex-Jaguar linebacker Bryan Schwartz.
Hayden Schwartz, yes pls
A 270lb DE? Yes
pleasepls!DT prospect for us
Not anymore - size and length will continue to be emphasized up front.
Not a bad strategy until she calls your bluff.
Size and length is only useful if it comes with some burst, speed, and coordination. Nijman had size and length too, but he wasn't remotely a DE.
Hopefully the new guys can get both but it probably will end up in some trade-offs.
Yup - point is we are recruiting both and not going to shoot for quickness in recruits who are under-sized. We will be looking for players with both.
We haven't seen any of them play a D1 snap yet. I hope they are getting size and speed, but color me skeptical VT is suddenly recruiting and getting both.
There is so much "That's what she said" material in this post
Haha - TKP'ing well sir
I mean you're not wrong about the shift in recruiting focus for the DL, but keep in mind that VTalways has an information pipeline, and if they're saying a HS DE is being recruited by us to play DT, I'm comfortable trusting that they're not just speculating off the fact that prospect is 6'4" 270 at age 16 like most fans would be.
Also note that 6'4" is still taller than most of our recent DT recruits, who have tended to be 6'0 - 6'2" 270-290lb as FR at VT.. so this prospect still fits with getting taller on the DL, even at DT.
Starting to think we need the Glengarry leads to close out this class
PUT.
THAT GATORADE.
DOWN.
Earl Miller to South Dakota. Not sure what happened there. I assume maybe the offer wasn't committable anymore.
Think he was behind Devin Lee on the priority list. He may have taken that commitment to save a spot in their class and hope a bigger offer comes along.
Not feeling good about Lee. just have heard more about the Mississippi Schools than anyone else
Any SEC school was always going to be a worry with him. Lots of kids in the southeast grow up dreaming of playing there.
Did anyone notice we picked up a transfer corner from Illinois State? His name is Devin Taylor and is rated by some sauces as the #1 corner in FCS. Put his name in last week when they decided not to play and we jumped right in with offer and commitment.
He's immediately eligible as a grad transfer (graduated in the summer).
see above
My sources confirm what you're saying.
My sources are the lengthy discussion about his commitment earlier in this thread.
Same. Elite corner.
German TE/WR who has added like 20 p5 offers in the last month. Came over to NW Georgia prep school this summer I think.
My first reaction on seeing his 247 profile picture was "that guy looks a lot like a European soccer player." Makes sense seeing he's from Germany.
That's a recruit that I'd sure like to hook.
I bet a lot of coaches would like to reel him in quickly.
......I'll see myself out.
The only reason I know that place exists is because of the Foxfire books.
I know it is OT but those are pretty good reads to keep some traditions alive. When I think of Rabun, I think of Deliverance. Was up there the other day for work and it is a pretty area.
My first thought was "Wow, a high school kid whose picture looks like a....high school kid".
I've lost track of all the RB's we are brining in. Given some of them are Jr/Sr transfers, there HAS to be some attrition coming soon.
The lack of attrition must have a lot to do with COVID. Why transfer out when nearly everyone else isn't playing ball? We still have half a dozen guys in the portal who haven't found landing spots.
Takes the class to 36th composite but 29th via 247 only rankings
Edit: 5th in ACC per 247
I don't know if I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy between composite ranking and 247 in-house ranking in the ACC. Typically the difference is only one or two positions, ours is five.
Our 2017 class had a huge discrepancy as well. I broke down why on one of the previous threads. Discrepancy was 10. 26th composite and 16th in house.
The gist is 247 in house was way higher on Keene, Farley, and Hooker and a few of our solid OL picks. All of which are great examples of why I don't care too much for the composite if the 247 ranking is substantially different.
only b/c it's us. We have a hidden -5 on the dice throw
Is that our combined "Location/Fundraising" modifiers?
Ummm....maybe because the differences are small and basically meaningless?
It's a combination of a logjam in the middle of the league and differences in evaluation between the other scouting platforms and 247, likely amplified by lack of camps due to COVID.
Mainly because Rivals has gotten worse each year on their rankings and ESPN doesn't even pretend to care about theirs.
I posted the comparison between us an UVA and UVA 247 in house vs composite was spot on, and our composite was below 247 in house. Lots of guys that 247 likes more than the other services.
Meanwhile the composite puts us at 10th in ACC
Yep. But as evidenced by their poor rankings updates I wouldn't trust ESPN this year and Rivals isn't doing much better without their camps.
In response to Kenji I'm guessing
Two hours ago. Maybe some more good news for the good guys today?
Jared Gibble, TE from Winston Salem maybe?
Love this pickup of Kenji, my favorite commit in this class so far along with Jaylen Jones. I think those 2 are gonna be special for us. I also love Tray Curry because of his size and DJ Harvey because what's not to like about this kid and his family. VT may not have the "marquee" ranked class but we"re building a very solid and IMO under the radar class. Very excited to be a Hokie
Ummm Steve wiltfong gave a CB too Ohio State for tyliek williams😟
via GIPHY
This is.... suboptimal
He was an (until now) expected and critical piece of this class.
Tyleik Pls
Welp...that sucks.
A Ohio State insider just put a CB in for Ohio State as well👿😢
I'm gonna give fuente one more year and if he doesn't land a 4 star NATIONAL composite in next year's class I'm done with him
Settle down man, I hear the 2023 class is supposed to be ELITE
Fuente needs a big year in 2020 on the field. You can't keep selling "We're building something special" each year with marginal results to back it up. A disappointing season without a signature win with his best full team of his recruits will be it for this staff and serious hopes of national recruiting momentum.
I haven't been on the meltdown train in general, but if we legit can't win a single one of these recruiting battles against the big kids, it's going to become a problem sooner rather than later. It's not like this class is tragic, but you have to have those marquee dudes to elevate the talent around them. If we can't keep any of those guys in the boat, then it becomes easier and easier for opposing recruiters to use the "Tech isn't the place for someone like you" line. We really need a solid win to break that narrative, and I'm not sure it's going to happen this year, which would be two straight years, which just isn't good.
Another one gone
This is my shocked face that another in-state talent is headed out of state 😮
How can we expect Fuente to land 4 stars in the middle of a pandemic??? Gotta give him until 2023 at this point to really get his guys in there.
I'm sure whatever 3-star 0.85 rated backup option we get will overachieve though and we'll be fine because stars don't matter.
AUG 27TH 5:00 pm ITS TIME ‼️— Tyleik "T5" Williamš 🪁 (@tyleikk) August 25, 2020 " target="_blank">
Oh, they're gonna miss out on Tyleik now when he's been advertised as not only more or less in the boat, but the critical piece to this class? It's one step forward and three steps back sometimes with Fuente.
5 times in the last 2 months. You certainly love posting that. And honestly, it really SHOULD sell itself. How many other programs can boast that their D-line coach was coaching in the NFL last year? And it's not like he was a crap D-line coach in the NFL either. If kids were at all rational about wanting to develop and get ready for the NFL, 5 star D-linemen should be lining up to come to Tech. The only downside I can see is that there haven't been any games played at Tech with Teerlinck's guys here. If the argument is they want to win a title or something, see my argument about being rational - that would mean they're prioritizing just the aspect of winning (in college) over their development to be NFL ready, which is a profoundly stupid priority.
F in the chat boys
5 years from now J Ham will have been promoted to HC, we'll be a bottom 1/3 ACC team, and the streak will be something different that none of want to talk about.
Some of us will be upset. Some of us will have stopped caring. Some of us will say it's a reasonable expectation. But I'm really afraid of what's going to happen to the program. We really need to play this season and play well.
... Fantastic...
Calm down guys. Can we please stop melting down over every recruit that doesn't pick us. I get why you're upset but at the end of the day it's not a good look on our program, these kids have all kinds of different reasons and factors that go into them deciding a school, it's not always about being closest to home that sells to these kids, hell look at our recruits, 2 of our top 3 currently are from Cali and Alabama how many of y'all would have expected that coming into the season? Let's be excited about the ones we get, and we're not done yet
Unfortunately we can't just say this every single time. Eventually someone has to be accountable or we will stink.
The fact is fuente isn't recruiting well and it is going to show up on the field sooner rather than later.
I too like to hold people accountable by posting from my semi-anonymous messageboard account.
I am not sure if you know how all of this works but yes the fans hold the team accountable. Donors (my self) can move the needle. This is literally how anything works that requires the money of others to operate.
Did I mean that this post on a message board changes anything? I hope you're smarter than that. It's the attitude I'm referring to, but sure being a smart ass on a message board is a great way to start the morning as well.
Cheers!
It may have been unfair to single you out because I've seen plenty of people post about this. Throwing around the idea of 'accountability' on messageboards has always been humorous to me. There are donors who actually move the needle who have direct access to someone in the athletic department and Hoke Club. Everything else is just noise and chest beating.
You think the noise gets to recruits but not back to the administration?
Never said that, but I will say the administration should be less sensitive to the opinions of people who are Mad Online in favor of listening to the people who actually write the big checks.
Is there really a meltdown here? There are a few cranky posters, the usual bunch, but it's not a get stomped at home by Duke meltdown.
And I would argue not signing a single 4-star 247Sports Composite for a full class would be a much more damning look than any fanbase outrage would be.
Cheers to the usual bunch :/
Yeah, I'm usually never the one to "meltdown," but seeing a class of 20 3* and no 4* is concerning to me. I just don't think there's any way we compete with Clemson with classes like that, even if a lot of those guys overperform.
We need to be pulling in AT LEAST 5-6 4 or 5-star guys each class. Things like "TNT" are cute every once in a while, but I want RESULTS, not just hype.
Clemson???? We are going to struggle to compete with Wake Forest at this rate.
Yeah because it's totally impossible to beat a wake forest even with only G5 recruits.
I'm not thrilled with recruiting but the results on the field should significantly outweigh everything else. Fuente had Memphis beating ranked SEC teams and it wasn't because they outrecruited them.
Your comment piqued my interest so I checked and Fuente only had 1 ranked win during his tenure at Memphis and it was against #13 Ole Miss in 2015. That year they also got boat raced by Temple, Navy, and a 6-6 Auburn team.
Sounds familiar, actually. Not an attack on you, just a big sigh of disappointment in the way our program has been going.
Yeesh. Let's provide more context. That Navy team went 11-2 and finished the season ranked #18, so they were very good. Memphis lost 35-34 at Houston, who finished the season 13-1 and ranked #8. Memphis then lost at Temple, who finished 10-4, won their division, and beat Penn State 27-10. Fuente took the VT job on November 29 and didn't coach in the bowl game against Auburn.
As a whole, Fuente was 1-4 against top 25 teams at Memphis. Those losses include a 1 point road loss to a top 10 Houston team, a 7 point road loss against a top 10 UCLA team, and a 7 point road loss against a top 15 Louisville team. Wins are obviously better but if nothing else he had an abysmal Memphis program playing extremely competitively against all competition. Make of it what you will.
All fair context and certainly beyond the 15 seconds of research that I did.
I still question how good that team really was though - all of those losses were by 3 scores. If the opponents were of similar standing, I wouldn't expect that differential in scoring.
Memphis lost 35-34 at Houston, who finished the season 13-1 and ranked #8.
I'm not thinking that's possible.
I was talking about these:
Right, but you left out the one that didn't fit your theory. If you have to leave out data points, perhaps the theory doesn't hold.
It was obviously a very good team.
I'm so hoping VT gets to play a full season this year, and makes a solid go of it.
You also included Auburn again when Shakeitallabout pointed out that Fuente had left by then and didn't even coach the team.
Not sure if this is meant to be sarcastic or not, but no I wouldn't go that far haha. We're winning 8-9 games a year under Fuente so far and I don't see that changing.
Like the tone of your post. Agree with you.
And the tight end we are flipping from Charlotte means Dingle and the other TE from Rock Hill are gone too. Barring a bunch of late flips, this class has been a colossal failure based on the expectations a year ago.
It's extra disappointing because Fuente has essentially been given a mulligan on the ridiculously bad 2020 class with the new NCAA ruling allowing everyone currently on the team to stay an extra year, and he's just following it up with an equally disappointing class.
You think this class is equally disappointing as 2020?? I would encourage you to compare the two side by side.
The only reason you can argue it's not "equally disappointing" is because 2020 was so abysmal that it's hard for a Power 5 team to even reach that depth. This class is still a bottom of the barrel class with 0 four stars and none on the horizon. Sure some guys have some upside but if people have really gotten to the point of complacency where competing in the ACC rankings with Boston College and Georgia Tech just to squeak into the top 10 in ACC recruiting is acceptable, there are really dark days for VT football ahead.
Whether or not "people" are "complacent" has no, and I repeat NO, bearing on what happens with recruiting. Or winning. Or anything else. Unless you have millions of dollars to donate to the school for the express purpose of improving recruiting, your opinion and mine about this recruiting class has no value or impact whatsoever.
It isn't some murky sub-group of fans that is causing VT to be not as good as it once was by cackling to themselves as they shrug at 45 point losses to Duke. They aren't causing this by sitting at home, saying in evil voices "Now if we get them to not care about losing to Wake Forest, we finally can achieve our evil goals!"
No, instead its people who realize they have no agency in creating change and are instead choosing to enjoy the positives rather than wallow in the negatives. Its people who have made a choice for the good of their mental state to maximize the positives and minimize the negatives, because their opinions and actions have no impact on the results of the program.
Yeah, this is where people lose me. It's possibly indicative of a bigger problem. But it's definitely a better class than last year's, and it's not like either of those classes aren't full of real D1 players. They're just missing those couple transcendent talents that you need to lift the whole roster.
I absolutely wanted Williams and he seemed like a good fit for our defensive scheme moving forward. That is the reason why people should be upset- not because he is rated a 4*. Some fans really, really need to stop being so tied to stars and rankings and realize that the coaches' evaluations should take much higher priority. Plenty of recent 4* players have never come close to meeting expectations at VT and we've had many unheralded recruits (low 3*) perform very well.
Personally I believe in our defensive line coaches and think both were tremendous hires, so let's give them a chance do their jobs.
Stars on a micro-level are insignificant, stars on a macro-level are not. There is volumes of data that speaks to this.
Can you expand on what you think the significance of stars is in the context of success for a college football team? Are you mostly referring to the blue chip ratio?
I acknowledge and accept that higher stars correlates to a higher chance of being drafted in the NFL.
The blue-chip ratio is part of it. Again, rankings at the micro-level are certainly flawed, even a particular recruit's Composite score (which is a blend of three independent points of view). From watching the film, and talking to the HS coaches, I think there are some underrated commits in Tech's class (as well as some overrated ones). But at a macro-level, especially with a full class, the data normalizes.
It normalizes to an extent but we know the rolling 4 year average of recruiting rankings can't predict the top 25 either. Everyone wants VT to land more blue chip recruits. However, I think there is a substantial difference in expectations regarding VT's recruiting ceiling. I think many people have been convinced that the blue chip ratio has to be met to win a national title and, therefore, anything short of that is unacceptable. I think that's the completely wrong way to approach the issue and results in drastic overreaction and over analysis of both micro- and macro-level recruiting.
Of the 35 commits plus signees from the combined 2020 and 2021 classes there is a single Composite 4-star, Alec Bryant (and he barely made it with a score of 0.8958).
Is that Tech's ceiling, 1/35 blue-chip recruits, really?
Personally, as much as folks get bothered about fans not understanding Tech's ceiling, there are those on the opposite end who must be tired as hell from always moving the goalposts.
Tech ain't Alabama or Ohio State, but they're not Pitt either.
Louisville and NC State have 3 4* composites THIS YEAR. VT should be better than those two schools at a minimum.
The location of those schools is a much more appealing to many recruits than Blacksburg.
I can assure you that recruits are not rushing to live in freaking Louisville. I'd have to imagine that most young people would rather live in a college town than a sub-par "metropolitan" area.
You're crazy to think that being in literally any city doesn't give a leg up to schools over Blacksburg based on population demographics and things to do alone. Move to a town in the middle of nowhere that's 85% white vs live in a city that seems more familiar to what they grew up with? Yeah definitely doesn't matter. Location wouldn't matter if we were winning natties but unfortunately we don't do that. I hate to break it to so many people but these football players aren't nearly as interested in Blacksburg as all the suburban and rural white kids are that flock to the school.
Based on that logic we should be raking in all of the 4-5 star white kids.
Hammer, meet nail. This is my frustration in a nutshell. No one expects us to consistently or routinely beat out the blue blood schools. But one composite 4 star from the last two classes is undeniably a regression from our past recruiting performance. The staff is just showing an inability to resonate with top recruits. We have and likely will be at a significant financial disadvantage to blue blood programs, but is it really THIS bad? NC State is even out-recruiting us currently. I've grown tired of a lot of our fanbase justifying and defending this type of effort by shrugging it off as all we are capable of now. Even Bronco, who will never be a world beater in recruiting, is at least snagging a few 4 stars.
I can buy the evaluation and coaching argument to some extent. But I also cannot buy that Fuente is smarter than every other P5 coach and knows something they don't. This level of recruiting being spun as superior evaluations or finding diamonds in the rough when we are swinging and missing on every top recruit first is unacceptable. It also further loses weight when you see the discord and poor performance on the field we have seen at times over the last few seasons, coupled with the significant attrition and turnover this roster has seen.
"we know the rolling 4 year average of recruiting rankings can't predict the top 25 "
It cannot 100% predict who will be in the Top 25 but it does a really good job of predicting who definitely will not be. Recruiting well is not a guarantee of success, but recruiting poorly is almost always a guarantee of mediocrity or even failure.
Do you mind linking the article or analysis on this?
Honestly, at this point there are so many articles explaining it you are better off just googling "why recruiting rankings matter" and taking your pick of any number of the dozens of solid articles over the years.
Here are some though anyway because I'm feeling nice.
The 7 step case to proving national signing day rankings matter This article ends with a link to "25 lies we tell ourselves on Signing Day" article that is worth reading and realizing everyone else in our recruiting bracket says the same shit we do every year.
Annual PSA on why Recruiting Rankings matter from 247
Do Football Recruiting Rankings Matter?
Recruiting Matters from FootballStudyHall
These are just a few. There are dozens of others.
I actually think it should be the people who say rankings don't matter providing some proof of concept. The reason you don't see any broad scale, data driven articles saying recruiting rankings don't matter is that all the ammunition that they don't matter is anecdotal.
But Hunter Renfrow!, but Sam Rogers! etc.
I don't know how this turned into the idea that I don't think recruiting rankings matter at all. I think the data does support that correlation to the top 10 teams or so and landing lots of consensus elite players. I do think the correlation is a lot less strong after that top tier when you have a difference of .01-.02 in average recruiting ranking separating ~20 teams.
Personally I don't see any path to Virginia Tech becoming elite at recruiting short of significant cheating. So the question to me is "are there outlier schools in the other recruiting tiers that perform above expectations? How do we perform like those teams?" I think there are those teams and my hunch is that they depend on staff evaluations and coaching to do so.
Anyway this thread has made me miserable so I'm taking a break. Stay safe, Hokies.
It can be done. Clemson did it under Dabo. UW did it under peterson (in 2019 sat at a 65% BCR).
Here's how it happens at VT:
Honestly, the first bullet is the least likely. Whatever the case, for this to happen, we need to start making our own luck which hasn't really happened since 2016.
Great post. Positive momentum is so huge for a college football program. The Fuente era has unfortunately not been able to sustain it for any period of time, and the last two cycles it seems the wheels are falling off. Recruits want to play in meaningful, impactful games against top competition. The ACC Coastal has been a snooze fest for the better part of the last decade. And when we get that rare big stage game vs Clemson, Tennessee, etc we routinely crap the bed on national tv. That flat out has to stop. We need to get the balling rolling in the right direction again, and it starts with a big 2020 season on the field, winning a game or two we aren't expected to, and winning a recruiting battle or two we shouldn't. If we can't do that, expect more status quo and eventual decline.
Can I get some of what you are smoking/drinking? The truth is VT is not sexy right now. We have one draft pick the last two years. Fuente is 33-20 at VT in five seasons. We have unproven coaches on D (not a knock I like most the hires they are just unproven at VT). Our ceiling is not as high as other schools in the ACC due to location, donations, facilities etc. Realistically we should be able to land 3-5 4* recruits and a 5* once every 5-7 years. The last two recruiting cycles we have one 4*.
So first of all, I'm not saying this a 'likely' scenario by any stretch of the imagination. In the hypothetical situation where a VT fan from the future used his time machine to travel to 2020, and told me "in 6 years, VT will have a 50% bluechip ratio," this is how I think it would happen. We'd have a good 2020 on the field, we'd see financial growth from the ACC over the next few years, we'd take advantage of the recruiting inefficiencies caused by COVID, and we'd continue to rise as some of our competition plateaus. That would present us with an opportunity of which we could take advantage of.
I don't disagree with your comments (especially regarding the unproven coaches - no one is talking about this and it scares me), but I do think we've proven that our ceiling is at worst 4th in the ACC (Clemson, FSU, Miami - and I'd argue 3rd because Miami is not committed to football like they were two decades ago). We can overcome challenges that the VT brand faces incrementally - good season on the field leads to small bump in both recruiting interests and fan interest/donations. If we continue build (like Clemson did from 2009 to 2015), we can slowly see results.
That said, it will take a lot of luck, as well as the elimination of unforced errors from the staff and the administration. The latter is going to be the difficult part.
I'm going to throw this out here, because I just don't believe 100% in the star ranking and the composite ranking is a fair judgement of each recruit. The bias is in the fact that these are pay sites. Case in point (and I'm sorry if people see this as repeating myself) there was a big thread on Inside Carolina bitching about the Rivals rankings. Then an article comes out on the Rivals "Top Ten Highest Risers" Three of the ten were UNC recruits:
Rivals Article
Now, I'm not saying these three guys didn't deserve a bump by Rivals, they did (all though Dillworth weighing 203 lbs is laughable, unless he had lead sinkers tied to his shoes), but what I'm trying to point out here is that here you have a case of a large paying fan base of one of these sites is able to push a "rare mid rankings cycle review" of their prospects.
Is it possible that only the paying customers are getting the recruiting bumps of the prospects that sit on that high 3 star, low 4 star level?
Unlikely and unproven IMO. These sites make money off their reputation; they want to nail every recruiting ranking possible.
Their accuracy is only challenged by your local TV weatherman.
You basically posted a conspiracy theory, with a single half-ass example as supporting evidence. You failed to show causation, much less correlation. 247 doesn't need to pander to a bunch of plebs on message board; they're not canceling their membership based on ranking. 247 make more money by having an accurate projection than having a projection that a single fanbase likes.
I appreciate your response, all I'll say is it's extremely plausible that some high 3* get a special "rare mid ranking cycle review" over other high 3* if you are a revenue generating entity that generates that revenue through specific fan base sites. If Rivals and 247 were giving their product away for free, then I would agree with your purity of rankings argument.
I believe VT has one of the larger boards on 24/7
Not in the top 40
Thank you for the clarification. I was clearly wrong
Well Duh! That's because all of the cool Hokie cats and kittens are here, not on 247.
Better competition.
From this site.
Each of our top 10 recruits (unless you count Holland Fisher's greyshirt year) had a run in the NFL. Most of our 2 stars have not.
Also idk what more anyone needs than comparing team recruiting rankings to top 25 finishes. Sure there are some outliers like UNC, but the top programs win recruiting. It's obvious.
I like to think of recruiting rankings as an expected outcome. For example:
Obviously, there's a ton of factors that go into any single recruit's success (scheme, coaching, coachability, physical growth, mentality, opportunity, teammates, injury luck, mental health, etc), but the law of averages suggests that the typical 5-star player will be better than the typical 4 star, who will be better than the typical 3 star, etc. Most data backs that up.
Here's a semi-related post from 3 months ago where I talk about how this knowledge transfers to recruiting strategy, and how it's not practical to build a recruiting strategy around 'diamonds in the rough'
There are mounds of data that show that future success can be tied directly to the recruiting rankings. People are not making this up. This is a fact. Ignoring this detail will not make our football team any better.
I guess there are mounds of data that bitching on the internet will make our football better though?
haha this response is so annoying. I come here to discuss Hokie football because I can't go next door and tell my neighbor we missed out on Tyleik Williams who is was a composite for star recruit from Mannassas VA. This is just another data point in a downward trend because he will look at me like I am psychotic.
I don't consider voicing concerns about a football team I donate a lot of money and time to among fellow Hokie football fans to be bitching but O WELL.
I see your point and understanding wanting to voice your opinion. I think the thing that gets annoying from my perspective is when it's same thing being repeated across multiple threads or multiple posters for multiple years. If there's a unique perspective to add, I think that's great to share. But if it's the same thing JoeHokie said two posts above, or that you said in the July recruiting thread when we missed our last highly ranked target, isn't an upvote sufficient?
He rebutted your take that stars don't matter. That's why we're down this specific path. What am I missing?
When did I say "stars don't matter" though?
This wasn't too far off
Huh?? I am flabbergasted that someone would take issue with that statement but who knows anymore.
Chris has said that he values 247's in house evals over others and everyone is cool with that. Saying that the coaches' evals, presumably specifically considering the recruit playing in their own system, would be important though... nope, that's going too far.
I think part of the problem here is that we're not closing on our top targets. Obviously we don't know for sure who the coaches rate higher, but it seems like guys such as DD and Williams were evaluated as better talents than the players we have by both 247 and our coaches. So it's not just an issue of not landing 4 stars, but also not landing our top targets.
Agreed, at this point, it is painfully obvious that we are on 3rd, 4th, or beyond options at multiple positions.
We're recruting against G5 schools for many of these players. Some of them are probabaly underrrated, but you can't build your entire class on "diamonds in the rough."
The excuse pool for this Staff is running dry. There simply is no reason we should be Recruiting at the bottom half of the ACC....None...not money, facilities, poorly run Hokie Club, dorms, ect, ect...
The results Fuente is producing are not good enough if your expectations are for anything more than a 7-5 or 8-4 middle of the pack afterthought of a Program. He doesn't have the personality or people skills to sell his mediocre record and unfortunately that's all that he has on the shelves since coming to VT.
Edit: clarification
Committed recruits P5 offers (not counting VT:
Harvey: 15
Curry: 12
Christian: 14
Stroman: 3
Bullock: 5
Jones: 5
Carroll: 10
Lofton: 9
Johnson: 4
Nelson: 9
Boone: 3
Hoyle: 2
Will Johnson: 8
Thomas: 2
Black: 1
Lawson: 1
Etute: 5
Ashbury: 2
3 players with no P5 offers two of them are OL, I'm willing to give Vance some leeway there) especially since one is in Europe. So we have a single committed player at an unproven position of development with no P5 offers.
How many of those P5 offers are from Rutgers, Wake, Duke, Vandy, Purdue, ect?
Save a very few guys, we aren't beating out top P5 teams for high-value recruits. We are losing way too many of these battles and not just to "Blue Bloods". We are being handled in recruiting by NCSU, Louisville, and sitting behind a GT team that was utterly putrid in 2019.
I can't defend that any longer. Beating out the P5 teams who define "a good year," as making a Bowl Game for Recruits doesn't excite me. Picking off guys from G5 schools because we have no shot at higher ranked players at that position doesn't excite me.
If that does excite others here, then so be it. I don't see a pathway beyond middling in the ACC Coastal under Fuente.
Arizona x2, Arizona State, Auburn x2, Cal, Kansas x4, Louisville x6, LSU, Nebraska x3, ND, Oregon, Texas. USC, Utah x2, Washington State x3, Arkansas x2, UGA x2, Kentucky, Miss St x5, Ole Miss 2, South Carolina x3, Tennessee x2, Texas A&M, LOLUVA x8, Duke x7, GT x2, Kansas State x2, WVU x5, Indiana x3, Boston College x5, Rutgers, Syracuse x4, UCLA, Pitt x4, Wake x4, Maryland x3, Vandy x4, Colorado x2, PSU, NCST x2, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern,
And that pretty much sums up my point:
1 PSU, 1 LSU, 1 USC, 1 ND, 2 AUB, 1 TX, 1 Ore, 2 Uga
10 total offers from Programs that would be considered Elite or having any relevance to the CFP picture. 5 of those were to Harvey, so that leaves 5 total for the rest of the class.
And that's not even considering whether those offers were "commitable" or not.
You and many others need to get over the idea that Tech is an elite program. Our peer programs are Michigan State (which has been to a CFB playoff), Arizona, Miss St and Ole Miss, Minnesota. Not blue blood elites going to playoffs every 2 years.
Edit: also good god could you keep moving the goalposts more:
I would argue that our closest peer programs would be those in our conference.
And for a 2nd straight yr., we are in the bottom half of our conference in Recruiting. Our last realistic hope to even break into the top half is now packing his bags for Columbus..2 weeks after they cancelled their season.
I don't believe I said anywhere that we should be beating out Elite teams for recruits. You posted a long list of offers as if that was some evidence of our success. My point was simply that the vast majority of those offers are from middling or lower-level P5 programs.
Also feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but was it not us that lost a local OL recruit to App State this year and now have flipped a player from Charlotte? Don't tell me we're not competing for G5 players. I could take our current signees and compile a list of G5 offers just as easily...
The number 1 recruit in the nation has an offer from Sam Houston St. Tristan Leigh has offers from at least ECU and UCF. You don't have no point, but just "has G5 offers" seems like an uninteresting data point in terms of recruit quality.
I was waiting for him to respond to you, but since he hasn't. I don't get this comment. That just because someone has a G5 offer it means if they commit to Tech it makes them a less valuable recruit? What is his point here?
Offers are a solid way to gauge talent by proxy of interest. I will say it is a bit flawed because the recruiting services will report all offers, and not only committable (and even written offers are non-binding), if that's where the data is sourced from.
Since the coaches were all in on TW, what point are you even trying to make? They missed on someone they evaluated highly. It's not like we're bitching about this because we're passing up 4 stars for people we think are better
Hell of a deflection right there.
I don't know why I'm expected to respond to attacks on a point I didn't make. You all told me to look at the "mounds of data" (actual quote) and I asked what you were referring to. You said blue chip ratio was only part of it... yet the responses have been limited to specifically talking about the blue chip ratio.
So... are we really just talking about the blue chip ratio?
The reality of a sports message board is that there will be discussion by fans both positive and negative. You can argue soundly that neither make the football team any better, but we are still all here to discuss these teams that mean a lot to us.
You're free to disagree with someone, but it's not fair or reasonable to suggest there shouldn't be critical opinions allowed.
I still think TKP is far less negative than other major VT sports sites at the moment. It's light years more positive than 247, for example.
Critical opinions are fine and welcome, but accusing other fans of contributing to the decline of the program through "complacency" or "keeping your head in the sand" or the other ridiculous claims that are going around is not ok. That's what bugs me, not the negative opinion. We can disagree about that in a civil and pleasant manner, but once someone says that my attitude is the reason Tech is struggling to recruit, that stops being a discussion and becomes an accusation.
Exactly. Perhaps this is what I should have tried to address in the first place but this is exactly what I'm frustrated about.
I guess there are mounds of data that pretending everything is sunshine and rainbows in an echo chamber of positivity on the internet will make our football better though?
It's not binary. Fans are allowed to be both hopeful that recruiting will improve and that the team will win more games while also voicing their concerns about how the current level of recruiting will affect the future success of the team.
What good does it accomplish by labelling discussion or fans voicing their concerns as "bitching on the internet"? We all want the team to win. There isn't a secret cabal rooting for the team to lose every game just so they can say, "I told you so!" But belittling people who voice their concerns is only inviting push-back if their fears come to fruition.
TW was supposed to be the cornerstone of this class for months and OSU all of a sudden decides they will take him and he is gone. Sums up the current environment @ VT. Our cornerstones are an afterthought for the big boys. Sad but true.
citation needed
I don't know if y'all realize quite how big the uphill climb on the recruiting trail is. If we don't donate more money then we are currently the days of Frank are gone. We can get mad about losing recruits I understand but it's not like they're picking JMU, in an unbiased opinion as an 18 year old are you picking VT or Ohio State if you wanna win now? It's not apples to apples if were losing out on our top recruits to duke and wake them I'm concerned but when the kid chooses a top 10 program in the country how can we get mad. I love VT but we're just not there right now. If we want to land these BIG recruits it starts with winning on the field consistently and donating more money. We need our coaching improvements to show up during the fall
I don't think anyone would disagree that more money would help. But at this point money is a straw man argument. Virginia Tech ain't magically falling ass backwards on a ton of cash. It's not happening. And as the Hokie Club grows, so will other top program's coffers, because it's an arms race. Tech is behind, and doesn't ever figure to become a super power.
People need to ditch the mindset of "if we had Alabama money we could do Alabama things". It's not happening. Tech needs to find its niche, double down on it, and Fuente needs to sell the hell out of it. Tech has not optimized all the resources at its disposal.
Let's take that same argument and apply it to the games. I expect Clemson to beat Tech and that's an easier pill to swallow. However, I don't expect Duke to beat Tech's ass, I don't expect Tech to lose to ODU, I don't expect Tech to struggle with I-AA teams. I don't expect Tech to be a middle of the pack ACC Coastal program. And frankly, that's where the program is at right now.
Perhaps my expectations are out of whack though.
Your expectations are not out of whack but you are applying past events to expectations. Basically you are saying you want improvement over what we have seen over the last several years. I dont think anybody disagrees with that. However, I would say that we are starting to see the niche. This team has to perform well to solidify the vision of the staff and yes we need transcendent talent to take a big next step. Regardless, it is a process. Lets hope it works out this year.
Serious question, what's the niche?
I think it's pretty clear Fuente's niche is player development and culture. We'll see if it ever pays dividends, but programs (including VT) have had success with that in the past. Fuente is clearly not the used salesman recruiter and we aren't a blue blood program, so relying on a magical boost in recruiting to elevate the program is frankly only going to result in disappointment. Losing out on Tyleik still sucks. We know it, Fuente knows it. IMO there's little that can be said that adds value at this point.
I'd really like to see that development, and even more so I'd like to see what the culture of the program is supposed to be. I honestly don't know
3 star Caleb Farley on some draft boards as a top 10 pick
3 star Dalton Keene Third round NFL draft pick
Christian Darrisaw 3 star considered one of the best tackles in the ACC
Just three odd the top my head sitting here waiting for my car to get out of the shop. The staff has shown they can develop players. The issue is their is a low ceiling when relying on that season after season.
No question there are spots. But when you are talking about building an entire program on this type of thing, I'm still skeptical.
The fact that we can produce guys like Farley and Keene and Darrisaw is great.
My personal expectation for VT as a program is for guys like that to augment a class's talent pool in addition to the handful of 4-ish star players we should be landing every class. Not for it to be the only source of that kind of impact talent in a class.
Farley and Keene were also four stars per 247 in house.
Farley was the 178th ranked player, 6th ranked athlete and 93 rated 4*
Keene was the 183rd ranked player, 9th ranked athlete and a 92 rated 4*
So really, if you follow the top dogs in the industry, these guys weren't even close to diamond in the rough development jobs.
I think the staff deserves credit for both, but they are very different than some of the 3rd/4th option guys we have taken the last two classes.
So are we only using 247 ratings or composite? This thread is filled with people complaining we don't have composite 4 stars but then when using none composite 4 stars the point is made they were 247 4 stars. Can we as a board pick one and stick to it.
My opinion is that you go by the composite rankings UNLESS there's a huge discrepancy. Then you just pick which every piece of data supports your opinion.
Chris had a really good post a month-ish ago where he broke down our 2017 class based on 247's in house rankings (not composite rankings). IIRC, our 2017 class was 16ish based on 247 in house rankings, with Farley, Darrisaw, and others as 4-star players.
I actually do think this staff can scout. They seem to find players before other schools do. We just need to hang on to those guys.
He still hasn't developed a QB yet. He has a lot of his own ex-players that dislike him. He has distanced himself from historical VT players besides a few select coaches
He also has many former players who love him. Ford, Denmark, Keene, Farley, Rogers, Wyatt Teller, Billy Ray Mitchell. Hell Fuente has more former players (none of whom he recruited) on the football staff. This BS line about Fuente doesn't get along with players is tiresome and outdated.
I think Jerod showed improvement over a single year. RW and JJ both looked tremendously better at VT than any of their other stops. I'm far more concerned with Fuente's ability to recruit a QB than I am with his ability to develop a QB.
I get the impression that most players love him. I was an HC event in Atlanta where a few former players came by, and they all seem to love him. Farley, Keene, and others have all spoken highly of him.
I think this is an unfair spin. VT has always had a challenge around making former players feel part of the program; Fuente hasn't fixed those issue, but let's not act like this wasn't an issue until recently. It's been an issue for a while now, and I think it's related to the limited HokieClub/Monogram club resources.
Hendon Hooker would like a word with you, however as far as fuente and ex or current players that's just not facts. Fuente is the kind of guy who will tell it how it is not how the player wants to hear it and that doesn't sit right with every type of recruit. Fuente will not lie to a player just to get that player to join his team like numerous coaches around the country do. Fuente may not be great at everything but if Fuente says it, he means it and you can take it to the bank.
At the risk of sounding cliche, it is Hard Smart Tough. Fuente wants a sound balanced program. I also think Fuente is honest, perhaps to a detriment when it comes to recruiting. But, if we can realize relative success with his recruits and it is acknowledged that the program is bought in, the blue chip recruits will carry the team onto the next step we all want. The big question is whether the staff runs out of time to sell the fan base.
A few things:
The 2018 & 2019 seasons were big failures and the primary reasons for the current state of VT football.
Following the ODU loss, the volitility from a few players, the crap start to 2019, Fuente's flirtation with BU, Bud leaving, and the obvious historical deficiencies in the recruiting department, are all viable reasons to doubt Fuente and his ability to lead the program going forward.
However, I can also see the positives. Fuente seems to finally have his staff in place with what I believe are solid hires. The recruiting department is being built out continuously which was much needed. The roster is deeper and more experienced, and Fuente has shown in 2016 and 2017 that he can win with an experienced roster.
The last element was the cultural shift from Beamerball and the LPD, which now seems to be centered on "GRIT". I believe this is the "niche" and culture that Fuente and his staff are actively selling to recruits, but it will take time to permeate considering how far VT bottomed out.
I'm willing to see how it will all play out over the next few years, but what I'm not willing to do is live and die with every called ball or strike in regards to the state of the program while ignoring the fact that there is a new strategy, culture, staff, and recruiting department, which all point in a winning direction.
This is exactly where I am. We do not have the resources yet to compete with the true blue bloods- BUT Fu is actively trying to get there with the hire of Fuller and JGW. If kids want to go to bama, OSU, OU etc then who can really blame them? None of us would turn down the chance at a really high paying job with tons of benefits to do the same job for less. IMO, it all comes back to resources and the pieces necessary to recruit which we dont have YET.
The whole point is to sell. You've already admitted defeat. Somebody like James Franklin or Dabo didn't just show up and we're fine with the Big10 or SEC schools poaching their talent, they sold themselves to recruits and they bought in. Penn State will never be a true peer of Michigan or Ohio State, but you wouldn't know that based on how Joe Pa and now Franklin conduct themselves. Same with Clemson. Clemson was nobody in 2010. I'm sure they thought South Carolina and the sec blue bloods would win every recruiting battle to Georgia, to Florida, to Auburn etc. Dabo didn't just throw his hands in the air. He sold his vision and built up the program.
Again with this lil Ole Clemson. They have a NC prior to Dabo, they had a large chunk of money prior to Dabo and a rabid SE fan base prior to Dabo. He just knew how to add those up with some great slick southern preacher man sales pitches and turn them from potential into today's reality.
Lol a NC from 30 years prior really isn't that relevant. Might as well throw GT, Syracuse, army, Pitt, Minnesota, Maryland, BYU, Colorado on the list to become the next dynasty of the sport.
Yes because all those schools have a massive fan base willing to donate right? For many of those people in SC they still remembered that NC it was important to them and they viewed it as possible again. Tell me anywhere in VA where people even in 2010 thought that way about Tech football and getting back to a NC game.
I wholeheartedly believed the 2011 team could have been a NC contender
Do you have data of Clemsons and national donation in the 2000-2010 range? I could not readily find any
This site has all revenue and spending data for any public school from 2005-2018: Here's data on Clemson. I've run the numbers before - if I recall correctly, VT was out earning Clemson until 2014ish. It really shows what a bad job Weaver did of capitalizing on the success from '99-'09.
You can view data
Thank you so much for this resource. This completely debunks the myth that Clemson just had an army of rich donors lined up throwing more money at their program. Tech had more resources in the relevant time period before Clemson blew up
Yep, which is why it baffles me when we raise the idea of VT needing to bring in more money to compete and people instantly compare money to Alabama, LSU, Ohio State. No that's not what I meant, we should be able to bring in money on par with UNC. We need our fans with big money to quit holding out and earmark some money directly for football that's how we take the next step forward. We have high level donors the difference is ours don't donate how other schools do, and 2 of our biggest donors don't even donate to football at all, those are the things we need to get fixed.
UNC is one of the most recognized brands in the US maybe the world. They have their own color blue for gods sake. Not to mention they merged their academic and sports logos not like Tech which not only won't merge but changed their academic logo even more.
It pains me to say it but the problem was Beamer and his inability to hire a innovative OC. We were really good at hard nose football but we aren't going to out power football Bama/Auburn/Georgia. We really wasted the post MV7 years. And while we were really good when Tyrod was on campus we really should have been in at least 1 C'ship game during that 4yr period....
Hard disagree. Our offenses typically lived in the top 15-30 according to SP+. A super innovative offense might have gotten us one more shot at the natty (I'm thinking if Chip Kelley was our OC in 2010), but teams adjust to offenses.
We never had the talent at other positions or the depth necessary to make a natty. This is where Beamer & Co messed up. You can't win a Natty with top 20-25 talent. There were two teams teams who have played for Natty without bluechip talent everywhere - the '99 Hokies and the '10 Ducks - The former had what was at the time the undisputed best dual threat QB in football history. The latter team had the most innovative offensive of the time and the perfect personnel for it. Both lost.
I'm with you on some of our offenses like 2009 and 2010 being very strong, much stronger than any recent offense, via any advanced analytics you choose.
However, I do think our inability to adapt and evolve the offense did hurt us on the recruiting trail in the long run. We recruited backs at an all-time elite level in 07, 08, 09 landing Evans, Ru, and Wilson in successive years, but by the the time the receiving corps of Coale, Boykin, Roberts moved on we had some of the worst offensive skill talent in my lifetime. It's painful to look at our offensive skill players in 2013 that we paired with a 1st ranked SP+ defense.
Yeah but those Os had stats that were inflated by beating up on the ACC. We scored 17(7 came on Dyrell's punt return) against Bama and 12 against Stanford. We split with GT over the 2yrs. Those were the only 3 teams that could match our power game during that period...IMO
False, false, false! SP+ adjusts for strength of opponent, field position, etc, ultimately analyzing each play individually. Special teams are measured completely separately and NOT included in SP+ Offensive numbers. From football outsiders:
If you click the link and navigate to the year of your choosing, you'll see that VT had the 12th best offense in both 2009 and 2010. 27th best offense in 2011.
Not completely... Clemson had less sports teams than tech, and was (geographically) closer to recruits - this means that, despite having similar revenues, Clemson could funnel more cash towards their program, and had lesser recruiting expenses.
IMO Clemson and VT were on the same ground in 2009/2010. The difference was that Clemson saw the future of college football, understood the rapid inflation that was about to take place, and planned for it. VT kept doing the same thing that brought them success in the previous decade, and when the strategy changed, we were unprepared. We're now playing catch up.
Also, I cannot overstate enough as someone who grew up 15-20 mins from Clemson, and enrolled at Clemson in Fall of 2011, the energy and excitement that the Chad Morris offense brought to Clemson was undeniable. I've never seen that much energy, excitement, and true optimism and buy in to the future of the program as I did during that 2011 season. They capitalized on that in a big way. They started winning those BIG OOC and bowl games: LSU 2012 in the CFA bowl, UGA 2013 to start the year, Ohio State in 2014. They started to win those big showcase games, the same games we lost almost every single one of for over a decade.
They had a crossroads after the 2010 season, and they went full re-brand with a high risk-high reward Chad Morris hire with Dabo's seat burning up. We continued to try to be 2007 VT for the next five years.
Man, reading about the excitement around the Chad Morris hire, it kinda feels like the excitement around the Fuente hire in 2016. And it got off to a great start, but then we lost what felt like 90% of our offensive production in that offseason. I always wonder how different the Fuente era would be if Ford, Bucky, and Jerod came back. Compare that to Morris - he got 3(?) years out of Tajh, and had NFL players at every skill position.
So true, and it hurts to see that.
It's easy for me to say that with the benefit of hindsight, but that same freshman year at Clemson we got ranked as high as 4th or 5th in late November heading into the ACCCG. I believed we could maintain that level with business as usual into the 2010's as well.
I just pulled 2010 and Tech spent just a hair less than Clemson on recruiting
Yea, but that money went further at Clemson (this is indisputable). There's a variety of factors for this - The coaches' personality undeniably is a factor, but I also think location plays a factor. When you're 1-1.5 hours away from some of the best talent in the country (ATL, north GA, SC, etc), it's a lot easier (and cheaper) to build relationships with coaches, players, etc.
I do believe it's possible to have a nuanced take here; you can recognize that Clemson had some built in advantages, but also had a staff that was fully prepared to take advantage of it. In addition to location challenges, our staff has had a ton of unforced errors in recruiting.
Clemson arguably had a better foundation in 2008/9 than VT does now, but I think the comparisons are fair. Clemson didn't just get a coach and transform into a champion (Like Bama did when Saban arrived), but they got little win after little win. When they had failures (eg; 2012 orange bowl), they course-corrected quickly (side note - this is where VT is not like Clemson - we could not just go out throw money at a coordinator; If you believe the rumors, we got outbid for Ashe and Odom this year, and couldn't afford to replace corny).
Regardless, Clemson was able to nab Sammy Walkins - who was WAY out of their league - and that kickstarted the Dabo era. That brought more recruits in, and those recruits brought wins, and more recruits took notice. Eventually, Clemson landed a once-in-a-decade player: DeShawn Watson. And then they started rolling.
We can't compete with Cincinnati pay wise.
Fickle's salary is $2.3M, while Fuente's is $4m. Our assistant salary pool was $3.67M in 2019, and while I don't have the numbers in front of me, I believe it's +/- $200k in 2020. Not to mention the fact that I'd wager Cincy does not have the same level of support staff that we do.
Looking at the assistant coach pool alone isn't really a good indicator of 'resources' available to a football program.
Bar1990 said plenty enough. But you need to clarify your position. Are you saying that our coaches are good enough to compete? Or are you saying we need more money for better coaches to compete?
According to the resource that Bar1990 provided:
1) VT generates $98.5m to Cincinnati's $61.8m.
2)Cincinnati spends a $3m per year deficit on athletics.
3) VT "profits" $5m from its athletics annually.
4) VT spends $19.9m on coaches compared to Cincinnati's $12.4m
5)Of Cincinnati's $61.8m of revenue, almost half ($29.2m) is categorizes as "Institutional/Government Support" while VT has $0 in from the state.
http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org/fbs/aac/university-of-cincinnat...
For what it's worth - those numbers are for the entire athletic department, not just football. So in theory, it is possible that Cincy could be outspending us in football staff salary. But by and large I agree, it's silly to argue that VT is in a less advantageous position than Cincy. That said, I do think it's worth noting that there is 'inflation' across the board, and VT has to continue to raise cash if we want to 'keep up with the Jones.'
That's what pisses me off about VT. A once in a decade player in Deshaun Watson kickstarted their run. VT had a once in a generation in Vick and never could get over the hump.
You're kidding right? Deshaun Watson kick-started Clemson's run?
Deshaun didn't 'kickstart' Clemson's run (I said elsewhere I think Watkins did), but he got them over the hump from good to elite. Without Watson, Clemson's run looks like VT's from 2000-2010.
Yep. They don't make or win titles without Deshaun. Morris hiring and the 2011 recruiting class started the run.
Letting Kevin Steele go after their defense imploded in 2011 and gave up 70 to WVU in the Orange Bowl was also a huge move. Brent Venables came in and quickly made Clemson a top defensive unit, especially with recruiting a disruptive and elite DL. I give Dabo credit for holding his assistants accountable and making a coaching change when he feels the team could be better. Of course it takes money to hire quality assistants, but Clemson was not afraid to overspend in football, and the results speak for themselves.
Clemson won the ACC championship 58-0 and made the playoff with Kelly Bryant - with a surrounding cast not quite as good as Watson had.
Before someone takes my words and somehow twists them into me saying Bryant's as good as Watson...I'm not. And it's not particularly close. But if you don't think Clemson was 1) on the way before Watson and 2) they couldn't win a title with another quality QB not named Watson, you're mistaken.
They wouldn't have beaten 2016 Bama without Watson.
I have thoroughly explained that their rise started in 2011, and I'm not saying they weren't on their way but they don't win a title without Watson. Sunshine doesn't come without Watson. KB wasn't going to beat any of those playoff teams in 2017.
Also they beat that overrated Miami team 38-3 in the ACCCG not 58-0.The same Miami that lost to Pitt and had 6 or 7 one score wins. They
Watson also had an effect on recruiting. You can't assume everything happens the same way after Watson if he never goes there.
This is where I'm a bit skeptical about what VT is doing currently. I understand we are playing catch up in terms of recruiting support staff and adding more positions. But if we can't afford to replace a sub par on-field coach because of poor performance and are spending money on new recruiting positions, I think that might be putting the cart before the horse a bit. I would try to surround myself with the best coaches possible and then build the team from the core out. We are adding support when there are serious questions about the core staff.
I don't know that I believe the on the field coaching is subpar. Anyways, regardless of you're opinion, it's tough to decouple good coaching from good players. Good players make coaching a lot easier. Who's the best running back who's played at VT in the last 4 years? Rogers? Peoples? McClease? Doesn't matter how good your offensive game plan is if your backs can't pick up blocks or can't make guys miss.
McClease was a pretty good back. But get your point
One D Tackle is not going to make or break the future of Hokie football. However it will eventually call into question: can Tapp and Teerlink do the same thing that Wiles did with low 3 star D Line recruits?
This was my biggest concern when Hamilton was hired as DC. If they or any of the other defensive coaches can't perform at a similar level with the talent we have then we're screwed.
Do the same? Like totally fail on prospect grading over his (Wiles) last 3 to 4 years?
Yeah okay...
Or they could recruit better talent?
How's that working out? (Hence the point of my comment...)
Haven't coached a game yet or recruited without a pandemic. Give them a chance
Hypothetical question for the masses: If we ended up having a great season, finishing ranked in the top 10 and taking second in the ACC behind only Clemson, yet we still have a terrible recruiting year for the '22 class, finishing for a third-straight year outside of the top 35, would Fuente be on a hot seat? And, if that scenario repeated itself for our next season, would Fuente then be off the hot seat?
Obviously this is a hypothetical that is statistically more unlikely than likely, given our recent recruiting, but I'm curious to hear how recruiting success is viewed compared to on-field success.
Short answer, no. He wouldn't be on the hot seat after a great on-field season.
The effects of the 2020, 2021, and 2022 recruiting classes likely won't be felt until 2022 and 2023 (etc.).
A great 2020 season will still be primarily coming from contributions from the stronger 2017, 2018, and 2019 classes. We could have a great 2020 and 2021 seasons and still have a sudden/steep dropoff in 2022 and 2023. That's the nature of a sport where your attrition from contributing players is on a rolling 3-5 season window.
There's no guarantee that will happen, but my point is that the 2020 season going well will certainly be good for Fuente's job security. The scenario you proposed will have him comfortably distanced from the hot seat. However, he could be right back on it if we have a steep drop two or three years later. Such is the nature of college football.
Not necessarily. The best players are going to get playing time. Period. There's a reason guys are getting passed on the depth chart. If seniority and star ratings had a direct influence on who sees the field, there are several guys who would be starting instead of 2nd/3rd string.
I don't see how "the best players will play" is in opposition to my statement that the majority of the starters and contributors to the 2020 season will be from those three classes I mentioned.
Do you think multiple of our 14 guys from the 2020 class will be starters or major contributors this season? So far there is nothing substantial to suggest that they will.
Or worse we see him leave us with his mess
On-field success obviously trumps recruiting success. You can recruit your ass off but if you don't produce then you'll be out of a job in 4 years.
Are you kidding?
Fuente wouldn't be on the hot seat. But VT and its fan base would probably be on his hot seat.
Pls discourse thread
This guy has six stars, I'd listen to him...
2 CB's for TE out of Winston Salem currently committed to Charlotte. Don't know if this means we expect to not land Robbie Ouzts or not but with Jack Hollifield more than likely being a part of this class, i don't see us taking 3 TE's.
sees "HARD COMMIT" and CBs to Tech
Definitely given up on Dingle at this point
Honest question - does VT have an apparatus to pay players?
I think we've learned the last few years through the various "pay-to-play" scandals that a blue-chip recruit is worth 6 figures. From Zion to Cam Newton, it's just the reality. Admittedly, this is probably worse in the basketball circuits, but I think we're all naive if we don't think it occurs in football to some degree as well.
We've learned through various investigations and court filings that these "pay-to-play" transactions are quite complicated and clearly intended to not be traceable.
Back to my (hypothetical) question - does VT even have a good way to do that given it's geographic isolation and distance from most of its alumni base affluence?
I lived in SEC country for 2 years, and know matter of factly that random fans would greet players at the airport with $100 handshakes and say things like "can't wait to see you play in X color and Y color". I'm sure these handshakes and other deals went up significantly in value depending on the quality of the player.
Who is possibly going to do that at Roanoke Airport?
Even our more-affluent alumni in the DC area and other metro areas have infinitely more distractions - higher cost of living, Type A career trajectories, bar tabs, etc.
I don't know one person who would even remotely consider doing this. I suspect you could walk around a SEC tailgate or a OSU tailgate, and find many fans who would.
Just a thought. I"m curious to hear the perspective of people who may be "in the know" on this landscape. Hopefully the NCAA isn't reading...
(Edit: I"m not suggesting TW was paid by OSU which is why we didn't get him. However, I am wondering if the issue does result in VT being in a competitive disadvantage against certain programs with more affluent, passionate fans, nearby campus)
Just to be clear, Hardee's coupon-handshakes are an acceptable form of payment correct?
Count me in.
There is an espn radio show in houston where lance zierlein is a host and after going to the combine for his draft evals came back and said everyone there was paid as a recruit and put the salary of a d1 qb in the 100k range
Clemson and penn state do just fine in bumblef*ck
Hello other Hokie fans! Do you know of any cheatings?
Logs on to see 71 new comments in the recruiting thread...
To be fair... we did get two commits in the last two days... even if most of the comments aren't about that lol
We got a tight end out of NC!
Logs in...wtf?
I love you guys, let's enjoy the wins, shall we?
Well this was certainly a fun catch up read
Well, time to burn this thread with fire and start Part 3.
I just donated to the Keep Jumping Fund. If I am going to criticize on TKP I damn sure better back it up where they need it the most.
Go Hokies!
I did, too. Last week.
Got my "thank you" email today, to go along with the, ahem, latest recruiting developments.
Sometimes you have to just...
Keep Jumping.
Same.
Since the theme of the thread is repeating old arguments/comments...
Pls discourse thread
https://www.thekeyplay.com/comment/979517#comment-979517
via GIPHY
Discourse threads are sooooo July 2020.
I guess I'm in the minority, but I'm going to celebrate the kids we do get and yell my ass off when they run out of the tunnel with a VT on their helmet. We can of course lament our misses, but there are more important things in life (especially right now) than focusing on the things we don't have.
Give me a bunch of three-stars who work hard, treat people right, and want to be here. I'm not the "win at all costs" type. I want to be well represented by the product on the field, which, except for a few notable exceptions, has happened in the time I've been a VT die-hard. I'm proud of the guys we run out there. I think this class (and last year's class) will make me feel the same.
It's possible to be both excited for the kids on the team, but also concerned for the long term future of program.
I agree, it is possible.
But based on these comments (and the comments from the past year or so), no one is actually doing it.
Edit: old news
See what happens when you close the COVID threads Joe, the crazy and bickering just finds somewhere else to go /s
good god new thread for actual recruiting news plz. plz. begging. plz.
The discourse thread is dead. Long live the discourse thread.
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I would prefer the gifs from LAHokie (and BAG when he was on here) that have good sources vs. the endless comments/back and forth we see on here more often... At least the Gifs are something to potentially get excited about and related to recruits since this is a recuiting thread.
Instead we get the constant "rankings dont matter", "ranking do matter", "look at our record compared to similar teams and how they recruit", "don't look at rivals, composite is more acurate", "stars matter" "stars dont matter, its about coaching", "this school recruits better because they have hotter co-eds", "this school recruits better because they are located here", "we need more 4*'s", "look at all the committable FBS schools vs. FCS", "____ was a 2* and he turned out great", "the data shows this ___", "look where Clemson used to be".
Like Holy beating a dead horse Batman... I get that most people are frustrated with Fuente's recuiting in past couple years, but it's literally the same shit every. single. thread.
If we don't have new football to talk about it's only going to get worse.
You're not wrong
I mean, what would you rather see? Just a new message after every recruit visits, and then 5 responses saying "welcome to the good guys!" every time there's a new commit? It's not like LA is boycotting this thread because there's discourse.
Perhaps there would be value in thread where only staff/mods could post updates, so someone could read through the updates without noise...
I guess my main takeaway is that is the comments in this thread is the same comments in every single recruiting thread. It's pretty much the same talking points. Some posters are so hell bent on changing people's opinion which for the most part, will not happen. And if it's not an opinion, they just regurgitate the same stuff over and over again.
To answer your question, I like seeing the gifs/updates/news by the ones who seem to have a good track record, the the embedded recruiting profiles of ones we have offered, any news on when we make the cut (or don't). Seeing videos/posts/tweets when someone commits to us (or not), breakdowns of a player and how they could fit into the system when they do commit, etc... Any news on the acutal recruit... not the constant banter on the things I outlined above becuase its the same shit, different day.
But that's just my .02. I only say all of this because the recruiting threads are usually the only few topics I click on here, which I assume probably applies to a lot of people on here. I understand this is a free site for the most part, and truly appreciate the community of Hokies since I love talking Hokie football and basketball, but in my years on here, it's not the same for what it used to be. It's almost becoming twitter... everyone wants to have last word, and god forbid you say something against the grain or against another person's opinion, it's a never ending thread of regurgitating comments, and sometimes unfortunately it gets personal.
I come to these threads for information, not opinions.
When certain TKPers say they like a particular recruit, I do pay attention to those opinions though.
DIscourse is going to happen one way or another on a message board. We know that some people want to discuss everything and some people just want the news/facts. We tried to split the recruiting threads to let both sides have a place to go for their preference and enough TKP'ers completely disregarded this and flooded the news thread with discourse anyway and we decided to go back to this. You can always use the currently available TKP function of collapsing threads which will dramatically reduce the noise (and load time) when you reopen the recruiting threads.
I actually thought the split threads was pretty productive. There were some loose replies here and there, but it made it soo much better to get the facts. Now this is going back to before - a little bit of news/facts with a lot of complaining, and then complaining about complaining, and then complaining about complaining about the complaining.
I'm not trying to be an asshole, but I thought there was a decent amount of discussion here, more so than complaining. Perhaps I'm good at scrolling past complaining. I don't know. But if all you are looking for is recruiting news, why not refresh the commit list on 247Sports once a day?
FWIW I agree. A lot of recruiting discussions end up being similar, but what's the point of a forum if not to discuss things. Unfortunately I think the site takes a hit when the overall mood of the fanbase is down (not that I need to tell you this). To me TKP is a pretty decent barometer of the thoughts and feelings of the fanbase as a whole, if anything I hear from more pro-Fuente people on here than elsewhere 🤷♂️. Fair or not I don't think he's been able to win over a large section of the fanbase, and that is going to affect people's outlook on the program.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. Any sports forum is going to impacted by the current state of the program/franchise. As as a result, TKP does act as a barometer for the fanbase.
I believe TKP is often the best VT site to find a variance of opinions and outlooks. For someone who loves discussion it's great because that mixture of views creates a natural discourse, but it also can lead to some bickering. I think it's always been more of the former on TKP, but between a pandemic and the program at an interesting mixture of subpar recruiting but simultaneously positioned for a strong season both of those sides have been magnified. I think a solid win over UVA to start the season would bring back a lot more normalcy to the boards.
Joe, sounds like a plan man. Please let me know how I can deactivate my account. I'd like it totally deleted.
Why?
Too much bickering. It's just not worth scrolling through the crap to get a tidbit anymore. Its not fun anymore. It has been part of my daily routine to check in here daily. Nowadays it seems like a platoon of folks wake up with the intent of just finding something to offend them or to argue about on and on. I think life would just be better without this place as my routine. There are some great folks on here that have great insider info but the squeeze just ain't worth the juice anymore. I tried to figure out how to delete my account online but couldn't find the option.
I think that the discussions around the prospects/recruits are great and one of the main reasons I like to get recruiting news from this site. Insights into footage, potential depth, different positions, skill ceilings, etc. What I don't like is when we get one recruit or lose one recruit and people start to make that one gain/loss into a critical piece of the puzzle and goes into depth about "because Fuente will never win recruiting because xyz" or "this is why I still have faith in Fuente." We end up getting people with counter arguments and it spirals down from there. If there was some way to keep these conversations at a micro level and discuss specific recruits I think people would get a lot more enjoyment out of it. I know that's difficult so I'm not saying I have a solution but I do think having the separate threads provided a mechanism to moderate for that.
I also do agree with the comments below that the state of the program and feelings of the fan base can drive discussions and the perspectives on those discussions in different ways.
For everyone mentioning the discourse thread, we said we were testing this format to see how it goes and would evaluate and adapt. Perhaps we should simply can recruiting threads too. That's an easy fix!
Joe be like "Don't make me turn this website around!".
I was going to start a new recruiting thread when this one hit 250 comments because I thought that's what we were doing moving forward but didn't know if that was something mods were supposed to do.
The plan is that we would start a new one every 300-350ish comments depending on what seemed like that right point within that range.
Like Joe mentioned above in another comment, this is another trial run to see how it goes and adjust moving forward. The goal has always been to find what works best for the most TKPer's.
FWIW, I prefer the separate commitment & discourse threads. I really appreciate the inside information some give us re: potential recruits and commitments.