So how good was the VT defense yesterday? Who knows 1 data points isn't enough, but well lets fudge some numbers and make us sound awesome. Toot, Toot, here comes the hype train!
One of the issues VT has had in the past is giving up big plays. So how did VT do?
15 Plays of 10+ yards
3 plays of 20+ yards
2 plays of 30+ yards
The 23 yard pass came in the drive before halftime to set up a FG.
Then there was a 36 yard pass on a desperation 4th and 8 to set up a game tying (if you gave NC State +20) TD. This happened with less than 5 minutes left in the 3rd.
At just under 9 minutes left in the game they hit a 37 yard pass that would go on to pull them with in 21 and would be the final score.
So how does this compare? So far this year NC State's offense ranks 9th in plays of 30 yards or more per game (VT ranks 3rd behind the Mississippis). So far this is a huge improvement over last year's NC state offense since in two games they are almost half way to their 2019 total. From a 10+ yard gain, NC state is just slightly above their 2019 average this year, but they are much more explosive for 20+ and 30+ yard games. They have almost 50% more 20+ and 30+ yard gains per game in 2020 than in 2019. For VT's defense, the 15 10+ yard plays is slightly more than our average of 13 in 2019, but inline with what NC State produced last year and less than what they did against Wake. The 2 30+ yard plays are slightly under our 2019 average (2.1). But what is more impressive is that that we allows almost 50% fewer plays of 20+ yards per game than in 2019. So NC State is more explosive in 2020 than 2019, but VT held did a better job in 2020 than in 2019 with plays of 20+ yards.
Now lets look at run vs pass. NC state was almost perfectly balanced this season:
| NC State Offense | 10+ | 20+ | 30+ | Rank (10+ yards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | 16 | 7 | 3 | 11th |
| Pass | 17 | 7 | 4 | 32nd |
Now lets look at VT's defense:
| VT Defense | 10+ | 20+ | 30+ | Rank (10+ yards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23rd |
| Pass | 9 | 3 | 2 | 11th |
NC State carved Wake up on the ground.
Looking at the VT 2019 defense (on a per conference basis):
| VT Defense 2019 Per Game | 10+ | 20+ | 30+ | Rank (10+ yards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | 4.25 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 25th |
| Pass | 9.5 | 4 | 2.1 | 11th |
When you look at it that way, we are pretty close to our defensive play from last year with a couple fewer 20+ yard plays than expected. So I guess than means we'll have to wait for French's film review to tell us how awesome we are.
On second thought screw that! We have had a seamless transition from Bud to Justin! We have a DC that doesn't even have to show up at the game to be as good as the greatest Defensive Coordinator! Just think of what's going to happen when he actually gets to coach his players up in the game. Broyles award here we come!
Comments
So what you're saying is, Bud Foster was the problem all along and we shoulda fired him years ago?
I think I like the way you think.
Be afraid, be very afraid 😁
But which of us should be more afraid?
Time to begin the Ryan Smith Broyles award campaign!
Bud has his place. Let's bring in the new and start anew. Damn, the D looked good. Really proud of our team. Solid performance in all facets.
The defense looked a little sluggish making adjustments, which is to be expected with two major D coaches on their couch. I would think things should look a little better moving forward, although I assume at least Justin will miss another game yet since they found out Saturday morning.
I think the offensive coaches deserve a major tip of the cap as well. Obviously, the general execution was slick, especially for a first game. But, what really stuck out to me was how well the plays were called to the strengths of the personnel on the field. I made a joke in the fam thread that Kill taught Cornelson how to run the ball, which was TIC since I always thought that little theory was 90% ridiculous. This offense may be hard to handle with a legitimate stable of weapons.
What stood out to me was the execution that Fuente has been preaching about for a couple years. There weren't a lot of presnap penalties, the Oline worked as a team. The defense swarmed to the ball. We played disciplined.
Now thats not to say there weren't mistakes. There were some bad reads on the defense. But first game under a new scheme that's to be expected.
For all the hate Cornelson gets, this is really the first time we've had the backs and the line to run like Fuente wants. I am probably saying this way to earlier, but this is why you have to give coaches 5 years. Its very atypical for a coach to leave the cupboard full. Now that we've replenished you can see what Fuente has wanted.
To the QB changes, I still think QP has a limited number of plays. So its probably hard to call something he can't execute. But some of the stuff French's talked about in his review was great in how we adjusted. None of that is a knock against QP, its part of his development process and he looked really good so far. He could work on that slant though.
Seems weird then that BB came in and picked it up right away. Yeah I know BB quarterbacked before coming on the team but QP should in theory have more experience with Corney's playbook.
BB was here for all of last season, but had to sit out for transfer rules.
I think QP gets the playbook, he is just not as dependable on tight throws. His teardrop fades were even 50/50 jump balls that had Narduzzi screaming push off from his couch. The simple slant to Smith was way behind him. Accuracy appears to be his weakness and not something he is guaranteed to overcome. But, he is still a nightmare to defend. I really hope it all comes together for him.
Sidebar: much of the QP angst over development stemmed from Trent Dilfer's comments at Elite 11. I love QP, but Trent Dilfer is kinda horrible at judging quarterbacks.
Yes not a playbook thing, but a QP can make these throws reliably and not those throws. Basically playing to his current strengths.
If it hasn't been pointed out already, we played this game without Waller, the #1 CB on the roster. Good things should be coming if we can play better against the run.
Let's see:
New Defensive Scheme
Down #1 and #2 CBs.
Down your starting Safety
Starting a true Freshman Safety
Thin at DE
Down DC and LBs coach
Secondary coach who has been with the program for 6 months calling the Defense
Sure we had some busts, but frankly, I expected more busts than I saw. I think we are somewhat lucky that NCST's starting QB couln't capitalize on mistakes better than he did. But for a team that carved up Wake with their running game, it was reasonable to think they would stick with that, which I think helped. Combo that with putting them into a 17 point hole, and it all worked out for us. Let's do it again next week.
Great points. Still don't feel good about our DT play / play in general defending the run. Their 7-play TD which was ALL on the ground looked menacing and foreboding about our future.
True. And not saying you are off base as I share your concern, but it may be that we were keying to prevent a big play through the air since that was the only way NCST was getting back in the game, rather than our base defense. Having Waller out definitely impacts the way we scheme our front also.
Just a general observation that may not be rooted entirely in reality, but I thought the new defense did an excellent job of bending and not breaking. Bud's only criticism from me has been that his scheme was very aggressive and prone to big plays. Several times Saturday I found myself thinking NCState was gouging us with first downs only to realize they hadn't even passed midfield. Time will tell if the new zone concepts will be an overall improvement even if it doesn't feel as dominant.
Edit: I am not insinuating we have a better D coordinator than Bud obviously. However, had he not retired, I think he was going to have to change direction a little bit as well to keep up with the offenses of today.
You hit the nail on the head as one of the reasons Iooked at the big play stats.
In college, there are lots of teams that struggle stringing together long drives. Not everyone has a Matt Ryan or Kellen Moore that excels at that. For a lot of teams a 20 play drive means a higher chance for a screw up to capitalize. That doesn't help against every team, but we don't play bama or clemson every week.
And we have special teams units that can set up the D so it has a lot of field behind it.
It's not weird at all to think that Justin may pick us up a bit with his fresh eyes.
We should be extremely comfortable with the fact that bud may have been suffering from getting a little stale the last 5 or so years.
BUT- don't let that distract you from the fact that bud was the best DC to ever coach the position.
That 2017 defense was a fantastic defense. I don't Bud lost anything, but his defensive were always boom or bust. Thats what made VT, the big scoring plays on defense and special teams. If you're going for the interception then some times you'll get burned on the double move.
But may not have lost anything, but that doesn't mean that JHam doesn't offer fresh eyes.
That's a very real possibility.
Yes, sorry I didn't mean to sound so dismissive. Bud's defensive has been one of a kind for many years. Hamilton could be bring new ideas that are more main steam which could be very good for VT. I mean we're trying to run an NFL type Dline. So its going to be interesting watching Hamiltons defense unfold.