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Can you win at UF maybe, but it's a gauntlet. Same with LSU but I would say more likely to win one there. Arkansas seems like a no.
In the last 4.5 seasons we have played 2 top 10 teams and might play 1 more in Miami. Franklin can come to the ACC and dominate. The ACC title game only had 1 top 10 team in it last year. It is possible to win the ACC with 0 top 10 wins. Franklin could get into the CFB and potentially get a bye and then only have 2-3 top 10 teams to beat to get a title.
The path to the playoffs is easier at VT and winning at VT means he might put himself in a position for a job that is much easier to win a title at like Bama or UGA or Oregon or Texas.
This is my wholly uninformed, un-sourced guess as well. This is the kind of stuff that Sexton is apparently very good at and we're a nice piece of public leverage for private negotiations.
We caught lightning in a bottle to get to the champ game in the old world of CFB. That world is gone and a plucky school in SWVA isn't built to play in the new one.
Franklins QBs were good but not great. None of them were bad, but none could really elevate the team to the next level, which is what you need to beat Ohio State/Michigan and win a national championship.
I might be the only one but my hope is that if his agent starts the conversation like that we simply state our starting and ending offer is 6 million for him and x million for his staff. That is our competitive offer for a fired coach that has a history of not winning the big games. If that is unacceptable, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
2025
Oregon collective was estimated to be $10.3M and that matched by Phil Knight
Ohio State was estimated to be at $20.2M
Michigan was thought to be at $16.3M in 2025
USC was estimated at $13.9M
Penn State was estimated to be at $13.7M
Indiana was estimated at $13.6M
Can't find the UCLA estimate I had seen earlier.
I have no doubts about Franklin's ability to improve VT'S current standing. I think PSU was dumb to fire him and 5 years from now will probably be in a worse position than when he left.
But going off of what Franklin has said publicly, he expects to win a Championship.
Maybe in private, that's not what he expresses but no one here is privy to those conversations.
VT just simply isn't in a place or a conference to compete for Championships. Not in the current CFB landscape.
If that's truly what Franklin wants, he is going to the P2. Florida clearly has Kiffin as plans A, B, and C, but Franklin is not off the table in G'ville from those here with "sauces."
Good data and counter point. My extended family went to PSU so I've followed them loosely. Stats are solid but I think PSU fans would argue some of those QB's underachieved and couldn't deliver in the big moments. But yeah data alone we'd be stoked with those results and maybe this is a matter of perspective. They think their QB's were average compared to OSU. We'd die for any of those guys.
PSU doesn't spend nearly as much on NIL as four of their BIG 10 peers do.
False - Most folks in the NIL world saying that, in 2025, PSU was in the same ballpark as those schools (and paying better than Michigan). That's why Franklin got fired. Because he asked for more and more and more and got it all, then still lost.
Skipping the individual stats, the 243 ypg average and 22.5 passing TDs per season are good numbers over a long time period. Confident that VT passing stats are probably close to bottom 10% across the P4/P5 in this same timeframe. Memorable QBs, if any, not for their passing skills.
my cynical ass thinks Franklin is using us to leverage a better deal elsewhere and that it's a pipe dream that we even think we can get him
IMO this is more realistic than cynical
I just hope everyone else passes over Chesney too because I'm certain if he got an offer in the SEC or B1G he'd take that over VT every day and twice on Saturdays
If Chesney has a plan to work with a GM and established coordinators, then he's the guy. He might be the best pure ball coach of the bunch. My biggest concern is that he just doesn't know the right people in the industry yet. Hopefully he has a stellar agent who can help him there.
I still don't get the QB knock on him.
This is what Google has on his QBs
As of the end of the 2024 college football season, quarterbacks under head coach James Franklin have thrown for over 35,000 passing yards in his tenure at Penn State. This figure is an aggregate of the yards thrown by several quarterbacks, including the top two passers in program history: Sean Clifford and Trace McSorley.
Key quarterbacks and their passing yards under Franklin at Penn State:
Sean Clifford: 10,661 yards (Penn State career record)
Trace McSorley: 9,899 yards (second all-time in program history)
Christian Hackenberg: 8,457 yards (part of his career was under Franklin when he arrived in 2014, though he started earlier)
Drew Allar: Approximately 6,928 yards and counting as of September 2025
Other QBs: Various other quarterbacks contributed smaller amounts of passing yards over the years.
35,000 yards in 12 seasons is 2,916 yards per season. That is pretty solid for a college QB. Thats a 243 ypg average on a 12 game schedule. They have 270 passing touchdowns. Thats 22.5 Touchdowns per season.
Are they earth shattering numbers? No. Are they consistently good/great? Yes.
My guess is that it's quite the opposite. A duty to mitigate is a well understood contract term and Franklin's contract included that he had to maximize salary to offset the money owed.
I have suspicion that an agent would also use the requirements of a duty to mitigate clause as a starting point for compensation. Franklin's agent would say in order to sign Franklin today, his duty to mitigate would require that he does not sign a contract that does not completely offset his duty. Therefore, if you want to sign him early, the start of pay negotiation must start at the full offset. And his level of compensation can only decrease from that full offset when he has exhausted all his opportunities to get that compensation.
Using that as a starting point and having two or more schools attempt to outbid the other, I am willing to bet Franklin will be compensated an amount that is decently above the offset amount.
I also think it's risky to hire someone with a duty to mitigate clause. Sure, you can have him sign a contract with the same clause, but if he fails, he might not get a 3rd chance, and maybe he doesn't get a TV gig. His next employer may end up holding a large amount of the bag. If his next contract also includes the duty to mitigate, it would require him to pursue the best he can get, but what is the best he can get if fails a second time? And if it's VT, what's the best you can get after failing at VT?
TLDR - Franklin's duty to mitigate his buyout likely requires any potential employer to compensate the entire buyout in order to sign a contact at this early stage. So, I expect any contract he signs to exceed his buyout.
If we've learned anything from our recent coaching searches nothing is done till it's done. I'd give Franklin 20% chance based on history.
I can see pros and cons from both Franklin's POV and our position on him.
Franklin's POV
Cons
- hard to win a natty at VT
- Sure Pry isn't singing out praises
- Step down from PSU in terms of job prestige vs SEC or B10
Pros
- Can with 8 games and be a hero
- Get paid
- Good recruiting and fan base
- Leverage over admin - "I'll come here but I want to do it my way" vs LSU where boosters are up your ass.
- Can win in ACC
- Same recruiting footprint
VT POV
Cons
- He had everything at PSU but couldn't win the big ones
- Not a great field marshal/head ball coach
- Seems kinda weird and petty at times
- Never really figured out the QB position, which seems really important if you want @ a school like VT (see our history or Vandy w/ Pavia)
Pros
- Proven at Vandy he could win with less...sort of counters the PSU underachieving
- Kids love him and he can recruit
- Sure he'll make us relevant in ACC
- Wins the presser hype game for Whit
Idk - I think you could make an argument that making the playoff at VT is easier. Which gets you a seat at the table to try to win a natty.
But given the (still growing) resource gap between the conferences, I think winning one at VT will be very very very hard. I wouldn't bet on him to win one at either, but I think the odds of him taking an Ole Miss as like a 7 seed and catching a few breaks seems more likely than us winning one.
Maybe its just the KooI-Aid I've been drinking for decades, but if his goal is a natty, VT lines up super well. In his existing footprint for recruiting, very easy pathway. Can't say the same about Ole Miss or Mizzou.
Was at WVU with the entire family. We threw a tsilagate at our Airbnb TH near the stadium for my daughter's roommates and their families. Had a parent Penn State fan there. He was happy to see Franklin go, like "good fucking riddance" level happy.
I tried to have a conversation with him about Franklin. I couldn't finish a single sentence. He would cut me off and then trash Franklin. On this topic he was insufferable and unapproachable. Outside of that, he was a pretty cool dude, but I felt he was delusional about Franklin.
I think Florida and LSU aren't even considering him because why would they want the guy Penn State just fired? (A lot of hubris at those schools).
I think this is right. They want a guy who they think can beat Alabama and Georgia. And if Franklin couldnt beat OSU/Michigan, there's not a lot of confidence he'd beat the top SEC teams. The same probably goes for Auburn if they fire Hugh Freeze.
But if one of those schools nabs a Kiffin or Drinkwitz, I think Ole Miss or MIzzou would probably gladly take Franklin. And my gut feeling is that he would prefer one of those jobs in the P2.
Until I see results of the hot/crazy matrix on Ms. Anniston, I will stand by my opinion that Brad Pitt is the stupidest male in the universe.
but I legitimately think he got a raw deal at PSU and that fanbase is ridiculous deluded and unappreciative of just how good and consistent he's been there for a long time.
This ^^^
Between Vandy and PSU, Franklin won nine or more games in NINE of his fifteen seasons. Franklin is 128-60 between an SEC doormat (Vanderbilt) and a second tier Big 10 school. He has had 2 seasons with a losing record in 15 years of P2 coaching. His first year at Vanderbilt (6-7) and Covid season(4-5). Outside of schools that have the mindset that it's National Championship or pack your bags, he has been a top tier coach. He had Penn State in the Semifinals last season. As for why we would hire him? Our football program has been broken for ten years. We have steadily fell behind in how our organization is structured and have allowed the old school "that's how we have always done it" cronies to have too much influence on our program. Franklin won't put up with that. Look at what he did at Vanderbilt. He took a team that had consistently had losing records for about 20 years and by year two had them at 9-4 in back to back seasons against the best conference in football.
It wasnt that he wasnt good at PSU, it was PSU deluded themselves into thinking they should be in the National Championship every year. PSU doesn't spend nearly as much on NIL as four of their BIG 10 peers do. Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Nebraska far overpay over what PSU has been. UCLA and USC are also paying more but it's close. That puts PSU 7th in the Big10 in NIL spending but Franklin regularly had them top 4 in terms of results.
I tend to disagree. I've never before been a big Franklin fan, but I legitimately think he got a raw deal at PSU and that fanbase is ridiculous deluded and unappreciative of just how good and consistent he's been there for a long time. I also think he wants to keep his mid-Atlantic connections and proximity for recruiting, his fiercely loyal players/recruits and staff, and his family (one daughter is a student at PSU right now and I think the other about to go to college). Seems like he's very family-centric and wants to have that proximity from what I am gathering. I think Florida and LSU aren't even considering him because why would they want the guy Penn State just fired? (A lot of hubris at those schools).
I've really come around the last several weeks and have changed my outlook. I think Franklin and VT would be a near perfect fit for what both sides are looking for right now. If he can get the support financially he needs, he will recruit lights out in our footprint. Look out, ACC.
While I wouldn't be totally unhappy with Franklin as a hire, I have the utmost suspicion that this is his agent "leaking" a number.
i.e. to any SEC team, you're gonna have to be North of $10mil --that's where negotiations start.
While the ACC is an easier path to the CFP, I think Franklin ultimately understands that to have any real chance at winning the trophy, you have to be P2.
And the only way to break the "Big Game James" reputation at this point is to win the hardware. To a guy with a big ego and streak of pettiness, this seems like it would be the driving force here.
I would honestly love Chesney more than Franklin tbh but I think Franklin is the smart (safe?) hire. I really genuinely hope that he's the backup if Franklin falls through
because, my cynical ass thinks Franklin is using us to leverage a better deal elsewhere and that it's a pipe dream that we even think we can get him
I just hope everyone else passes over Chesney too because I'm certain if he got an offer in the SEC or B1G he'd take that over VT every day and twice on Saturdays
Damn autocorrect
I'll chip in.
Exactly. Everyone says you have to be at a P2 school to win a national championship. But it's the same handful of schools who have been winning it. We have to follow the Clemson and FSU model. You can absolutely have an easier path to the playoffs in the ACC if you recruit at an extremely high level and have the resources. And I think we could have that with Franklin.