Is there really a purpose in ranking or grading a recruiting class? To me it is almost like preseason polls. Pointless! It makes for good debating and discussion but how often do most of these recruits pan out to where the "experts" say they should? I have to admit i get excited when i see that the Hokies get commitments from 4-star athletes but we have a tradition of pulling in the "nobodys" and producing with them. I like at the board for next season and i can't help but wonder if we aren't better off without some of the 4 and 5-star guys. Look at Miami and FSU. They get the big recrutis consistently and what do they have to show for it? Maybe you can blame it on coaching, Miami, but some of it is just the simple fact good in high school does not equal good in college, FSU. Give me a guy with heart and drive and the ability to be coached over a guy with a quick 40 time anyday!
Recruiting class rankings
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Maybe..
But Tech has done very well with the higher rated prospects. For example, since 2002, Tech has landed three Rivals 5 stars, Marcus Vick, Macho Harris and Tyrod Taylor. I think all three were very good players while in school. Also, I looked at the 4 star recruits from 2002-2009 and there are some really big-time players. Names like Jonathan Lewis, Xavier Adibi, Chris Ellis, Vince Hall, Sean Glennon, Eddie Royal, Stephen Friday, Jason Worilds, John Graves, Blake DeChristopher, Cris Hill, DJ Coles, Dyrell Roberts, Bruce Taylor, Ryan Williams, Jayron Hosley, Logan Thomas and David Wilson are on that list. That is a a very good list of players over an eight year recruiting period. I think this is proof that 4 and 5 stars are needed in the program. If you go down the list of 3 stars and less, of course there have been some really good players that have proven the stars don't matter. However, the ratio of hits to misses is much higher with 4 and 5 stars than the 3 or less.
Statistics
The numbers will show that 4 or 5 stars will generally outperform lesser stars. VT likes to RS 2-3 stars unless they are ready to play or there are issues with depth due to graduations/injuries. 4 or 5 stars usually come in ready, but also expecting, to play. CFB's formula gets good results but I don't think it will lead to a NC without at least a couple 5 stars every year or two.
NC..
I am starting to agree with what you say more and more. I used to think a national title could be won with overachieving 3 stars but after looking at the best players through Tech, a majority of them are 4 or 5 stars. I don't think we need to land a 5 star every year but landing high 4 stars and/or top 100 talent will mean better overall talent depth. Also, hitting on 2-3 out of 10 3 stars or less is great but I will take hitting on 6-7 4 or 5 stars everytime.
It is about statistics
I would rather have a population of statistically superior athletes than not. It still requires coaching, committed athletes who reach, or exceed, their potential, and teamwork. I think VT's current chances of winning a NC are similar to an FCS school beating a top 10 FBS school. It could happen if every thing falls in place and with some luck. We can be competitive with everyone but the odds are long. I am not saying we are like an FCS school. I am saying there is a significant difference between a top 5 team and a top 10-15 team.
I want more but gladly accept our current status because it is very near the top. Well above average and consistently so. Waiting on that magical year to happen. I will know it when I see it.
AMENDMENT:
Thinking about Jeremy Lin and the Knicks. Maybe there is more to it. Maybe the coaches can find enough talent hidden in plain sight to make a great team that goes all the way. Sometimes undersized, underappreciated guys outperform the "stars". That is CFB's personality and the character of Hokie football. When we do land some of those stars the rest of the team is always there to support. But will the Knicks win the NBA title with their new star? Only time will tell. It does take a team. Keep believing.
I guess it all comes back to the saying 'If you keep doing what you have always done, then you will keep getting what you have always got.' The landscape of recruiting has changed so much in the last few years. The tighter the NCAA tried to get on it the more it seems their is dishonesty. I use to always say that we might not win a championship but at least our program is honest! Maybe we need to quit being happy with 10 win seasons and start looking at every season as 'OUR' year. Set the expectation higher. 4 and 5 star recruits are great to have but only if they will buy in to what we sell at Tech. I don't want a 5 star player that can't be coached or be a team player. Doesn't seem to be getting a championship for Miami or FSU.
Big Time Recruits
Beamer learned his lesson going after big name recruits. Like the guys who view the college game as a stepping stone as opposed to a time to mature and get better. Whenever I think about VT going after big time recruits, I always think about Kevin Jones & DHall. They were signed during or just after the Vick era. Yea they were great on the field, but they were assholes in the locker room. They almost single handedly caused us to go 8-5 in 2003, by dividing the locker room over a number of issues (not practicing hard, falling asleep during film sessions, etc.). We have had other big time recruits since then (Tyrod, DW, Eric Green, etc.) but they had a good work ethic, and they all faced fierce competition for playing time in the offseason.
Recruiting is all about how you can develop a guy as a coach. A top 10 recruiting class does not mean top 10 finishes the next 4 to 5 years. Thats why schools like Klempsun, F$U, & the U all have highly ranked classes and yet they make up a mediocre team at best. Their coaches can't develop guys into team players. We will find out about Klempsun this year, as all the guys on the roster are "his" guys, but they have always had strong recruiting classes. Also, a lot of the "big time recruits" end up either getting kicked out of the school for grades/violating team rules or transferring because they aren't used to competing for a position and can't cut it academically.
Beamer goes after guys that know a starting position isn't guaranteed, guys who will work hard on and off the field, and guys who are in general "upstanding citizens". Thats partly the reason we don't get the 5 star guys, the other part is recruiting rankings area a crapshoot. I feel the reason VA is seen as a "second tier" state behind FL, CA, & TX is because of the numerous recruits that come from military families. They have bounced around from state to state, from school to school, and I think that makes them harder to rate recruiting wise. Meaning the big time recruits (5 star guys) have been recruited in the same area by the same scouts, whereas the Tidewater region guys have been scouted by multiple recruiting "gurus" throughout their HS careers.
I believe 10 win seasons are still a big deal and should be something to be proud of. A 10 win team is a good quality team, as opposed to in BBall where a 20 win season in the past was a big deal & meant an auto NCAA bid. A 20 win season now doesn't guarantee postseason play and doesn't mean you are a good quality team.
CFB has us on the right track, we will continue to be a top tier team, and remember we have the most wins in the NCAA since 1995.
Love,
Banana_Thompson