100% Chance of Hate Week

There are many reasons to hate UVa, but let me give you one more. As my father finished his undergraduate work in college he was preparing to go to law school at UVa, where he had been accepted and was enrolled. At that time we were at war in Vietnam, and many young men were being drafted to serve and honorably did so whether they wanted to or not. My father was among them the summer before he was to start at UVa, and instead of starting his law degree he went overseas as a non-voluntary member of the US Army.

Upon completion of his required time he returned to the states eager to finally begin work on a law degree. Only UVa decided they would no longer honor his acceptance after his two years off serving our country in a war that was going nowhere and in which he never asked to participate but did so eagerly when selected, out of a sense of patriotism (The University of Georgia honored their original acceptance despite him previously deciding to go elsewhere).

So when some Wahoo starts running his mouth about how they were founded by Thomas Jefferson, now you know how they really feel about those that serve our country. Get your hate on.

The Basic Numbers

Before the advanced stuff, some basic numbers everyone should know...

• Virginia Tech has a 9-game win streak in the series
• 38-0
• UVa has 0 wins in the ACC this year
• N(fans at UVA spring game) = (previous year's win total) * (1 / years head coach has been there) * i
• i is not a typo. If you didn't take much math look it up.

What the Computers Think

Like Maryland, the computers don't think this will be particularly close. Let's hope they're right this time!

Trivia Question: Averaged across numerous computer rankings, where does Virginia rank in the ACC?

Hint #1: There are 14 teams in the ACC
Hint #2: They are worse than 13th.
Answer: 14th! I wouldn't go to games either!

Offense and Defense

Fact, stated without sarcasm: Virginia actually has a pretty good defense.

"Fact", stated with complete sarcasm: Virginia offense can compete with anyone!

This is VT's biggest offensive disadvantage in a while, maybe even since Alabama. It's also the defense's biggest advantage in a while because UVa's offense is even more inept than our own this year.

This looks like a low-scoring punt-fest...hey, speaking of punts!

Punting

If there's going to be a bunch of punts, let's talk about punters and #PUNTERSWAG! I spent four years in Terre Haute, Indiana. It contributed Clabber Girl Baking Soda to society. Also, A.J. Hughes is from Terre Haute.

Who's got the better punter?

Well Alec, maybe you just look like you're coming up short because of a small sample size. Let me just check the numbers here...WHAT THE HELL? YOU'VE PUNTED 79 TIMES THIS SEASON? At least you're at the top of one punting stat!

Since you're just an average punter, I'm sure you contribute on special teams in other ways like by actively trying to stop a ball carrier that's about to score a touchdown on your team.

Alec, sorry dude. I tried.

Offensive and Defensive Profiles

Back to the regular stuff here, let's see if VT is showing anything interesting on offense.

As always, I find myself emotionless looking at this. We're not good at anything and we're not terrible at anything (relative to UVa's defense rating on that metric).

How about on defense?

Oh damn, almost had to rescale the graph! Look at that advantage our rushing defense has against their rushing offense and ponder that Virginia intends to try their backup QB some, but does not plan on changing their rushing attack.

Biggest Rivals

Has VT become dominant enough over UVa that this isn't really a rivalry anymore? Let's check.

Every team has that one rival they just hate and then some secondary rivalries. Luckily, through the power of advanced statistical analysis, we can quantify precisely how much hate each team has for their biggest rival.

Yep, looks like UVa is still our most hated rival. Beating them never gets old, and losing to them will be the height of misery.
Unfortunately this analysis did not shed any light on UVa's most hated rivals, as these could have just been guessed by anyone who has ever met a Hoo.

Offensive and Defensive Personalities

So what should our offense's personality look like on Saturday?

Once again I yawn looking at this. Let's just compare the company each keeps.

Virginia Tech's Offense is Most Like: Northwestern, Kentucky, Central Michigan.

Virginia's Defense is Most Like: Georgia Tech, NC State, Arkansas State.

Maybe the defense will be more fun.

As usual the opponent has the advantage on methodical drives (an effect of having a bend-don't-break defensive philosophy).

Otherwise, the offense should tend to have higher ratings than the defense on average, so this is a pretty substantial advantage for our defense. Which is similar to who?

Virginia Tech's Defense is Most Similar To: Clemson, Cincinnati, USC.

Virginia Offense is Most Similar To: UConn, Idaho, Western Michigan.

Final Thoughts

I've derived the following formula to quantify the odds of winning.