Logan Thomas, his receivers and “catch efficiency”

During the week leading up to the Georgia Tech game on Sept. 26, I saw a lot of Internet hate going Logan Thomas' way. Through four games in 2013, Thomas, once touted as a top-five NFL draft prospect, had completed just 65 of his 134 passes for a miserable 48.5 completion percentage, four touchdowns and six interceptions; already one more than his goal for the season.

As many know, Logan performed admirably in 2011, completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 3,013 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. However, during his first year as Frank Beamer's starting signal caller, Thomas was surrounded by a myriad playmakers, including the top two receivers, statiscally speaking, in school history in Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin, as well as David Wilson, who would run for a school-record 1,709 yards that season.

In 2012, Logan's numbers dropped considerably, as he was plagued by fewer playmakers on offense and the complete lack of a running game. He finished with a 51.3 percent completion percentage with 2,976 yards, 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions as the Hokies needed a strong finish to extend the school's 20-year bowl streak.

Through those first four games of 2013, Logan's stats resembled those he put up in 2012, rather than the 2011 numbers fans would prefer to have seen.

So it's not to say that the frustration among fans was unwarranted, if it was being based completely off Logan's stat line. Having watched every snap of every game he's ever started, I didn't believe that Logan's numbers adequately reflected his performance to that point in the season; thus began a mission.

In the past three weeks, I have watched every pass that Logan Thomas has thrown between the start of the 2011 season and Saturday's win over Pittsburgh. Sometime between now and then, "catch efficiency" was born.

Catch efficiency is a statistic I created to measure a pass catcher's ability to haul in balls thrown their way, based on difficulty. It has nothing to do with a quarterback; only those he throws to. The results I came up with did not come as a surprise, and proved what I originally believed to be true, but I will get to all that in a bit.

What is catch efficiency?

(er) + (sr)10/9 + (sd)1/4 + (tr)4/3 + (td)1/2
catchable targets

Before you make fun of my rudimentary equation (keep in mind I am a communication major), allow me to explain myself.

Every pass a quarterback throws can be put into four different categories:

Easily catchable: Expected to be caught by any pass catcher at any level. They require little to no adjustment on the receivers part and if you're on the receiving end of an easily catchable pass, it means there are most likely no defenders within a yard or two of where you are when you come into contact with the ball.

Should have been caught: Slightly more difficult to haul in than easily catchable passes, but are caught in most instances. May require some adjustment on a receivers part; having to slow up because a ball was thrown behind them, having to squat to catch a pass, etc. In some cases, pass could be easily catchable, if not for the defender on the receiver's back.

Tough catch: Are not caught most of the time. Pass usually requires major adjustment by the receiver; having to dive, maximizing their vertical, battling with a defender, taking a serious hit as soon as the ball hits their hands, etc. Defenders can often play a part in tough catches, but it is not necessary.

Out of reach: Receiver is unable to even get a hand on the ball, most often because of the impact of a defender or a quarterback's inaccuracy.

Before I go any further, understand that out of reach passes do not factor into catch efficiency. As I said, a quarterback has nothing to do with catch efficiency. It is strictly a measure of a receiver's ability to haul in passes that can to be caught.

That being said, let's talk a little about the formula, which puts on emphasis on catching tough catch passes and dropping easily catchable ones.

"Easily catchable" receptions get a base rate, with a receiver getting a little bit of credit for receptions that "should have been caught." A receiver gets even more credit for a "tough catch" reception. Likewise, drops that "should have been caught" still give a little credit to the receiver because they weren't easy receptions. "Tough catch" drops get even more credit, because they're not expected to be caught in most instances. Likewise, "easily catchable" drops receive zero credit. Keep in mind that all passes that are not out of reach are catchable targets.

(er) + (sr)10/9 + (sd)1/4 + (tr)4/3 + (td)1/2
catchable targets

er = easily catchable receptions
sr = should have been caught receptions
sd = should have been caught drops
tr = tough catch receptions
td = tough catch drops

So, in theory, a receiver can make up for dropping one easily catchable pass by hauling in three tough catches. Let's take a look at Dyrell Roberts in 2012, who I expected to have an awful catch efficiency.

Dyrell Roberts (2012)
64 targets, 33 catches
28 easily catchable (26)
6 should have been caught (3)
12 tough catch (4)
18 out of reach (0)
85.7% catch efficiency

Although Roberts dropped two easily catchable passes and failed to come up with half the should have been caught passes thrown his way, he did make one-third of the tough catches Logan threw him, giving him an average 85.7 percent catch efficiency. By comparison, in 2012, Corey Fuller finished at just 84.9 percent, while Marcus Davis came in at 84.7 percent.

A receiver can also exceed 100.0 percent if they're making all of the catches they should be making, as well as a few of the tough catches. I give you 2011 Danny Coale.

Danny Coale (2011)
83 targets, 59 catches
40 easily catchable (40)
12 should have been caught (12)
13 tough catch (7)
18 out of reach (0)
102.5% catch efficiency

Those numbers are absurd, especially considering the fact that the second-highest catch efficiency among Logan's pass-catchers in a single-season comes from Kalvin Cline, who currently stands at 94.7 percent, and that's with a small sample size of 20 targets (17 catchable). The next-highest single-season mark comes from 2011 D.J. Coles, who came in at 92.9 percent catch efficiency with 49 targets (41 catchable). So yes, 2011 Danny Coale really was THAT good.

Now that we've covered what catch efficiency is, it's important to understand what kind of numbers Logan's receivers have been putting up in 2013. I tweeted a screenshot of this list the other day; if you saw it, it should make a little bit more sense at this point.

Logan Thomas receivers' catch efficiency, ranked
1.Danny Coale (2011, 83 targets) 102.5%
2.Kalvin Cline (2013, 20 targets) 94.7%
3.D.J. Coles (2011, 49 targets) 92.9%
4.J.C. Coleman (2012, 32 targets) 92.3%
5.Demitri Knowles (2012, 41 targets) 90.8%
6.Willie Byrn (2013, 43 targets) 90.8%
7.Josh Stanford (2013, 32 targets) 88.2%
8.Ryan Malleck (2012, 28 targets) 87.6%
9.Jarrett Boykin (2011, 104 targets) 86.9%
10.Dyrell Roberts (2012, 64 targets) 85.7%
11.Chris Drager (2011, 28 targets) 85.3%
12.Corey Fuller (2012, 74 targets) 84.9%
13.Marcus Davis (2012, 100 targets) 84.7%
14.Marcus Davis (2011, 53 targets) 84.6%
15.David Wilson (2011, 30 targets) 83.6%
16.Demitri Knowles (2013, 51 targets) 80.9%
17.D.J. Coles (2013, 23 targets) 79.1%
18.Randall Dunn (2012, 25 targets) 77.7%

As you can see, Demitri Knowles, who leads the 2013 team in targets, comes in at just 80.9 percent. Knowles has seen his fair share of struggles so far this season, hauling in just 29 of 41 catchable passes.

Demitri Knowles
51 targets, 29 catches
24 easily catchable (20)
12 should have been caught (6)
5 tough catch (3)
10 out of reach (0)
80.9% catch efficiency

However, it is important to note that Logan's first four games and last three games are night and day. Knowles' are the same way.

*CB% stands for catchable ball percentage, or the number of catchable passes a quarterback throws

First four games of 2013
Logan Thomas: 65-134, 48.5% (70.1% CB), 4 TDs, 6 INTs
Demitri Knowles: 26 targets, 71.3% catch efficiency

Last three games of 2013
Logan Thomas: 57-87, 65.5% (78.2% CB), 5 TDs, 0 INTs
Demitri Knowles: 25 targets, 100.7% catch efficiency

So, as Knowles' catch efficiency has dramatically improved over the past three games, so have Logan's numbers. Coincidence? You tell me.

Receiver catch efficiency by game, 2013

Alabama
Josh Stanford: 100.0%
D.J. Coles: 58.3%
Demitri Knowles: 40.9%

Western Carolina
D.J. Coles: 100.0%
Willie Byrn: 98.8%
Josh Stanford: 81.3%
Kalvin Cline: 80.5%
Demitri Knowles: 77.0%

East Carolina
Willie Byrn: 101.6%
D.J. Coles: 100.0%
Kalvin Cline: 100.0%
Demitri Knowles: 88.6%
Josh Stanford: 79.4%

Marshall
Kalvin Cline: 122.0%
Josh Stanford: 94.4%
Willie Byrn: 71.6%
D.J. Coles: 68.8%
Demitri Knowles: 65.0%

Georgia Tech
Demitri Knowles: 111.0%
Josh Stanford: 111.0%
Willie Byrn: 102.8%
Kalvin Cline: 100.0%
D.J. Coles: 70.8%

North Carolina
D.J. Coles: 105.5%
Demitri Knowles: 102.8%
Kalvin Cline: 91.5%
Willie Byrn: 86.6%
Josh Stanford: 83.3%

Pittsburgh
Josh Stanford: 100.0%
Kalvin Cline: 92.2%
Demitri Knowles: 90.7%
Willie Byrn: 82.8%

So, even though Knowles had an abysmal 40.9 percent catch efficiency against Alabama, he put out +100.0 percent performances against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. And, although his total ranks on the lower end of Logan's receivers, if he continues to put out impressive performances, it will no doubt start to climb closer to his 2012 total.

D.J. Coles, who has just 23 targets on the season (17 catchable), currently has the second-worst single-season catch efficiency mark of any of Logan's top targets of the past three years, as he sits at just 79.1 percent. Keep in mind, that sample size is still very small, and we've seen in the past that Coles is capable of posting a high catch efficiency when he's healthy. We all know that Coles' playing time has been limited, for reasons that have never been made clear to the media, leaving everyone to guess that its because he's either A) not completely healthy or B) out of shape. My guess is the latter, and it has no doubt affected his catch efficiency numbers thus far in 2013.

D.J. Coles
23 targets, 11 catches
10 easily catchable (9)
3 should have been caught (1)
4 tough catch (1)
6 out of reach (0)
79.1% catch efficiency

The team's best catch efficiency performer in 2013 that's actually a wide receiver comes in the form of Willie Byrn. Despite not seeing a single target against Alabama, Byrn ranks second on the team in targets, behind Knowles, and has made the most of them.

Willie Byrn
43 targets, 25 catches
18 easily catchable (17)
7 should have been caught (5)
7 tough catch (3)
11 out of reach (0)
90.8% catch efficiency

Redshirt freshman Josh Stanford has performed admirably as well, coming in just below Byrn at 88.2 percent.

Josh Stanford
32 targets, 19 catches
11 easily catchable (10)
9 should have been caught (7)
6 tough catch (2)
6 out of reach (0)
88.2% catch efficiency

It's also worth noting that freshman walk-on fullback Sam Rogers has a 99.3 catch efficiency, as he's caught seven of the eight catchable passes thrown his way.

Now it's time to look at how Hokie pass catchers have fared for Logan in 2011 and 2012, so we have something to compare this year's numbers to. The list posted above covers individual numbers, but its important to look at how they performed as a team, in order to better determine how well Logan is actually playing.

2011: 75.2% CB, 90.3% catch efficiency, 59.8% completion percentage, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
2012: 72.1% CB, 85.3% catch efficiency, 51.3% completion percentage, 18 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

So, yes, Logan did throw 3.1 percent more catchable balls in 2011 than he did in 2012, but a young offensive line and lack of confidence no doubt played a part in that. And while 5.0 percent seems like a very small number (the difference between 2011 and 2012 team catch efficiency), keep in mind that the difference in 2012 Corey Fuller and 2013 Demitri Knowles is just 4.0 percent. It may not seem like a lot, but every little bit means the world.

Unsurprisingly, Logan's 2013 numbers lie directly between his 2011 and 2012 campaigns. But again, the difference in his first four games and last three games is incredible. While Logan himself has improved during that time period, his receivers have been giving him a lot more help since that Thursday night down in Atlanta.

*Note that team catch efficiency is not just determined by Logan's top five targets. Every receiver who has at least one catchable pass thrown their way is factored into team catch efficiency.

Team catch efficiency by game, 2013

Alabama: 51.7%
Western Carolina: 86.1%
East Carolina: 93.3%
Marshall: 81.3%
Georgia Tech: 100.2%
North Carolina: 90.2%
Pittsburgh: 91.9%

The Georgia Tech game has easily been the receiving corps' best of the season, as they hauled in 19 out of 21 catchable targets, including three out of four tough catches. When Logan's pass catchers are making tough catches, especially early in games, it has a clear affect on his confidence and his ability to make impressive throws.

Logan completed his first nine passes against the Yellow Jackets, but only five of them were easily catchable. Sam Rogers made a tough catch on Logan's third pass of the game; the ball was thrown behind him as he was running out in the flat, and Rogers made an impressive, one-handed grab. Then, Knowles made a tough catch on Logan's fifth pass of the game, another one-handed grab on a throw down the field, while he was being face-guarded by the cornerback.

That game was Logan's second best in terms of completion percentage in the past two and a half seasons. His best outing in that time came against Miami in 2011, when he completed 23 of 25 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns.

As was the case against Georgia Tech, Logan got a lot of help early from his receivers. His first two passes of the game were both tough catches, but he was bailed out by Danny Coale on the first and Jarrett Boykin on the second. The team's catch efficiency in that game was 101.8 percent.

First four games of 2013: 70.1% CB, 82.2% catch efficiency, 48.5% completion percentage, four touchdowns, six interceptions
Last three games of 2013: 78.2% CB, 93.9% catch efficiency, 65.5% completion percentage, five touchdowns, zero interceptions

Logan had an outstanding year in 2011, due largely in part to the confidence he had in the players around him. We saw the opposite in 2012, and through the first four games of 2013. But the Georgia Tech game seemed to be a turning point for both him and his offense, and if they continue to make plays for him, theres no reason his numbers at the end of this season won't resemble those of 2011.

If you're interested, here are the full game logs, player logs and research I did for 2011, 2012 and 2013.