Georgia Tech Statistical Preview

I didn't want to post this. I didn't want to even pull the numbers. I'd already seen a couple of ranking systems, and they mostly all really like Georgia Tech this year. After Marshall I said Georgia Tech would open at about a 10 point spread, and it turns out that I was almost right on the consensus:

Not surprising, given these rankings:

So where is each teams strength? At this point I think we're mostly interested in quantifying strengths and weaknesses rather than identifying them. Needless to say, our strength is defense and theirs is offense:

We actually have a slight overall edge in this ranking system (for prediction, the home field advantage wipes this narrow edge out), but this is about as generous as any ranking system towards our chances...they have us rated similarly as others but are not nearly as high on Georgia Tech. The graph also shows how we will go strength on strength and weakness on weakness (although they are much more balanced than us).

Situationally the rankings look like:

Keep in mind, as I said earlier, that ratings do not include home field advantage. Predictions are done by estimating neutral field score and then adjusting for the estimated home field advantage. But clearly they have the advantage when we are on offense, and we have it when they are on offense.

So with all of the talk and focus on their offense vs. our defense, you should be every bit as worried about our offense against their defense.

Side note: Despite sometimes being completely carved up by Marshall, VT retains the #5 defense in the country.