I'm writing to all of you fellow hokies out there from downtown Atlanta where I wrap up my final night in the annual AMS conference. I come back to Blacksburg with tons of knowledge, business connections, and most importantly some AWESOME stories. I return from my long hiatus (I apologize for not doing a report for the bowl game but I was very busy that day) to write to you for the first time about a non sports related event. A few minor events aside this has been a relatively quite winter (well...colder than usual...hell may have frozen over at one point) and aside from everyone's favorite word of the week this winter (polar vortices) no major events have occurred. We could be in line for our first one this next week. See the great thing about being surrounded by meteorologists every second of every day I see some things I might miss otherwise or that I haven't been checking up on actively enough. well ladies and gentlemen im proud to warn you all of a winter storm that is heading north east and taking the perfect storm track to bring us tons of snow. We have a minor storm coming in sunday and late this weekend into early next week that could bring 2-4" and some sleet. however after that we have a major storm coming next week according to the GFS model. expect to start hearing about it mid to late next week and while it is still a long way out things are looking promising....errrr threatening for the storm to hit around Wed. ill be keeping a close eye on this
in more important news aside from the news of all the new hokies coming to school (I'm going for a positive outlook rather than a negative for our broad base of recruits and the sheer depth of this class) Punxsutawney Phil is pointing towards 6 more weeks of winter and well...hes dumb. I love watching the groundhog day people throw out the stats that groundhogs are right 75-90% of the time because well they're not. I apologize if I ruin groundhog day for you and or your family but groundhogs are actually correct closer to about 30% of the time which I mean if you think about it the things got about a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong. The way the climate is playing out and a few pressure systems up there, this cold snap should start easing up and we should see some warmer air flowing in.
I mean really guys....were putting our trust in this thing?
screw groundhogs and Atlanta is still struggling with the "massive" (relatively speaking) snow storm of last week...the one thing I did love about this picture though....look at that stache... I wish I could grow one like that do you know how good that thing would look if I wound up in broadcast?!
ditch your car on the highway because the snow almost covers the grass?
YOURE AT GEORGIA TECH YOU CAN DO THAT!!!!!
god speed and safe travels everyone warm weather is coming!!!!
OH! I almost forgot, my UVA joke..
Coach London is really struggling to comprehend that timeouts cannot be saved up between halves
Comments
oh also I forgot to debunk the whole non melting snow thing. If you believe that...please stop haha the truth behind the videos is that lighter fluid contains plastics among a few other chemicals. when its burned its released into the snow and leaves color. It also has a little something to do with the chemicals in the snow itself. Try putting your lighter up against anything as close as they are...and it will leave a black residue mark. the people even state in the video that the snow is melting in their hands. The reason you don't see so much water buildup is due to a lovely process called sublimation, please look it up if you haven't heard of it. so im trying to contain myself and not bash people who do it but its people who are looking for a conspiracy theory...and some of the comments on youtube are absolutely baffling to me but I digress...its false...don't worry us meteorologists aren't cray enough to build mega snow storms in an attempt to carry out some evil diabolical plan and its kind of insulting to my profession that people even say this stuff its just silly.
Two things. First, as a former resident of the great state of Pennsylvania, Punxutawney Phil is awesome. Most groundhogs would be hibernating or eating gardens or getting hit by cars or whatever it is that groundhogs do. Not Phil though. Every year he climbs out of his home, surveys the area, and tells his handlers if he sees his shadow or not. What other groundhog do you know that can even talk? And he doesn't do it for fame or glory, he does it simply to educate the nation on what to expect over the coming weeks. For my money, its the only forecast I need.
Second, will the Tuesday of next week storm impact northern VA? Will the two systems over the Rockies combine to form the mega Sunday storm?
I second the above. G-hog Phil deals with more pressure than the average person, yet he does not seem smug and we never hear about him getting arrested, or doing naked videos, etc.
I think if you put sunglasses on G-hog Phil, he might be mistaken for London. Not looks wise, but coaching style.
I think Phil is seriously over dealing with drunks in tuxes every Feb 2nd morning:
No to the mega Sunday storm the second seems a little to far out you may have a day or two to clear the driveway before wave two rolls in late next week (wed night is my early long shot prediction) however the storm is probably gonna hit NOVA as well so go stock up on milk and TP before everyone catches wind of it
As a current resident of the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, I feel comfortable saying that all groundhogs can go to hell, and the best scene in groundhog day was when Bill Murray sacrificed himself and a pickup truck to take out just one in that quarry.
Some of it might be sublimation but some of it is just the remaining snow wicking up the water or absorbing it.
I haven't seen a video where somebody melted it down the whole way but, in the videos I saw, it sure looked like it was starting to turn to slush.
ahhh, the super storm i've been hearing about at work for a couple of days now. the guys here were saying it was gonna be this weekend but i guess it'll be a few days later. a mid-week snow storm, super.
Well there was a storm we were looking at this weekend that was looking like 18+ inches on the gfs but things kinda petered out. Its looking like slush sleet and a little snow mixed in...enough to make Georgia flip the hell out but the big gun will hit wed or Thursday and should be among the last few events this summer as of now I'd venture to say about 10+"
I work at a power station in VA, and just today, we started hearing the whispers of, "You better start preparing now". Thanks for confirming what we were hoping was exaggerated info.
Yeahhhhh I mean I'm gonna keep an eye on it but a lot of the guys at the conference agreed that the 18" they were saying last weekend was ....not even close to accurate there's still some potential and one model is still pointing to double digits but most are primarily pointing to a resounding whiff on the storm, particularly the euro which...aside from that Miami game has yet to really let me down but ooph did I whiff on the Miami game haha I still feel bad about that one
And as far as pphils supporters here I apologize if I was hard on him, he is adorable just trying to portray the fact that things will warm up sooner rather than later
I forgive you
Update!!!!
Were all stuck in the car driving back from Atlanta and we started comparing models because....well that's what meteorologists do on a 6 hour drive and all things are pointing towards a large buildup of low pressure developing and moving southeast towards Louisiana and the gulf
For those of you who missed my mini lectures this fall, low pressure systems winds flow counter clockwise which will pick up even more moisture from the gulf, the systems track will then typically head up the east coast where it will continue to pick up more moisture. We call these storms noreasters and they typically provide huge snow events for our region. All three models we checked pointed to almost identical storm tracks for next week which....usually is a good indicator that some things gonna happen, more news later but things certainly look threatening at this point, expect snow out to Richmond and ice and sleet east of that, northern Virginia will get snow as well and it should carry into Friday, storm track is pointing to a wed arrival so yeah euro is saying 12+ inches...
Its a nice black color, gfs is saying 10-12, NAM is looking like 10-12 too.
The euro usually doesn't throw snow numbers like this around and I want to reiterate that I trust that thing a good bit, again more info as this develops!
I'll post some graphics soon too once I get off the road!!!
I remember Prof. Carroll told our class to expect a snow day my graduating semester, based on the models he looked at. Sure enough we had the only snow day I could remember at Tech.
Wait, you said something about models. I don't see any pics of models. Boo.
Best I could do on a tablet guys sorry!
If you're telling me I'll be missing a few days of work next week - and I choose to believe you are - I should probably leave work early today to prepare.
well things are still a ways off, I wouldn't get ahead of myself haha but yes the models are looking promising right now, the GFS started going back and forth but the euro and Canadian models are still firm on their predictions
So we can rename the GFS the "Harrison" model and the Euro the "Marshawn" model?
forreal the difference between the two is the euro updates almost hourly, so I find much easier to trust because it adapts itself as time goes on and if its showing a trend over a few days that means it doesn't require itself to favor something meaning its trending a certain direction.
Ive been relying a lot on the euro the past few months and against it hasn't let me down to much thus far it even predicted on the "massive snow storm" this weekend missing about a week ahead of time, so Ive got to give it credit where credit is due. I don't always understand the math behind it but as much as I hate to admit it if I was matched up against it in a forecasting challenge I think it would beat me more times than not
the human judgement however comes in when models start disagreeing like the GFS is at this point....however I think in spite of the GFS being a pain in my ass, its going to still be a major event at this point. The gfs is making it a little more difficult to be drunken and confident at it at the same time, either way.....im going to be bashful coooooooooooooooooomon snow! don't make me look like an ass again
oh also! typically when a storm moves up the coast like that, or near it we tend to have much larger snow events, the reason the low pressure system takes so long to move to Louisiana is due to the high north of texas, it kind of traps it in there for a few days. As far as temperatures go, that cold front up yonder in Canada looks like it might sweep down as well.
seriously atlanta, get your shit together.
That was so pathetic. In the meantime in SWVA we were getting 3-4 inches unexpectedly and we
managed just fine.
In all fairness to the ATL, there's a big difference between the mountains of SWVA and major metropolitan area in the South. Should it have been as bad as it was? No, but there was also no planning and no assistance from the Department of Transportation to clear or even treat the roads. It froze as soon as it hit and instead of telling everyone to go home, they waited until it was ice across all major roads. They see snow only once every couple of years so they often aren't as prepared and can't handle it. It was a mess, but it was caused just as much by the drivers as it was by the city and its officials.
Also, I was reading a piece that informed me that Atlanta is made up of a ridiculously large amount of counties and independent districts all of which are responsible for coordinating preparation certain stretches of roads. Throw in how governments don't interact nicely with each other along with this being a freak occurrence and you have a giant clusterfuck.
A lot of truth to that but speaking from experience....Atlanta traffic is pretty terrible to start with and this is a guy that went to DC a good bit growing up
Plus....GT is there...and screw GT they're really fun and easy to make fun of
Well thats great. SWVA expects these kinds of snowfalls every year and has the infrastructure in place to deal with it when it happens. Salting roads and plowing as soon as the flakes start are a yearly event for the people of that area.
In Atlanta? Thats a twice a decade occurrence. They don't budget to have the plows in place and the salt on hand during the wintertime 24/7 because it would be a complete waste of money 4 out of 5 years. So when these kinds of snowfalls do happen, you now have potentially hundreds of thousands of cars trying to make it home in untreated, unplowed roads in an area where nobody is used to driving on it. Believe me, driving in SWVA during a snowfall is far more safe than driving in the likes of Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, etc during a 2" dusting.
The only thing that makes Blacksburg unsafe in the snow is the students from the 757 (and other areas) that have never had to drive in the snow before, and the hills. The hills can be killer, if you have one you have to drive up (or down) every day, especially if it's on a side street that's not guaranteed to get plowed for hours.
Gives new meaning to "snowpocalypse"
Is it true Mike London is better at forecasting the weather, than he is at play-calling (and coaching in general)?
Its tough to compare ...he's god awful at both I heard one time he forecasted snow in July
The event is looking a little less severe euro has dropped down to 8" and the gfs is jumping back and forth on the storm track
Those of you in southwest NC.....god speed you're looking at the bad stuff now
hate to be a pest and keep updating this, but its still looking significant, id expect most of the snow to start Wed night and go into thursday. Euro is pointing at 10" my prediction which im feeling more confident about would be around 9".
Im really happy this one worked out, feels good to get an extended forecast correct
I consider any snow over 3" to be significant in Richmond. Must be fun for the kids in school.
You are not being a pest. PLEASE keep us updated. :)
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645451385502123&set=a.1488073351...
It must be a significant storm... we're supposed to get snow down here in Alabama.
Good ole nor Easters
I'm in (read: near) Asheville, NC and we're already getting precipitation here...started this morning. Radio station claims that most of it should come tomorrow and by Wednesday we'll be in the clear.
Theres a small system moving in that will give us some very minor precip, I have no idea where they're getting clear by wed though that's when the bad stuff is gonna be bearing down on us, late wed night into Thursday
Thank you for all of your insight...it's definitely possible that I misheard the radio hosts (or, also possible but less likely, that they misspoke). Either way, it seems there are differing stories even among some of the people here at work. The most recent version I heard matches yours pretty closely...that we're supposed to get some tonight (around an inch) and then on Wednesday it's supposed to hammer us. I just hope it all clears up by Friday since my SO is supposed to be driving down 81 for VDay
and apparently, if you look up the weather.com for Asheville they're expecting <1 accumulation on wednesday...
I can't seem to get close to the same story from any two sources...
TWC (and subsequently weather.com) is the last place I go to get meaningful weather data. Meaning I pretty much never go there.
Weather.gov is the site of the National Weather Service, run by the government. There is much less conflict of interest, as it isn't interested in profits. They don't have the forecasts as far out as weather.com, but this is for good reason, as the models are unreliable at best any more than 3 days out.
noted. Thanks for keeping me on track
Just re-read what I wrote, sorry if I came off as condescending. My fiancee is a meteorologist, and she has gradually opened my eyes to the world of forecasting over the past 7 years.
Really? Where'd she graduate from and what's she do now? I'm a junior this year!
She graduated from Miami, and now... well... she doesn't have a Master's yet, and non-broadcast jobs in meteorology are few and far between for Bachelor's degree holders, so she's an oceanographer with the Navy. But she's starting grad school in the fall, hoping to become a meteorologist by trade instead of just by degree.
Smart lady! Well good luck to her in her studies and exactly I'm trying to avoid the broadcast side of things... I may have some connections in ball aerospace that I'm hoping might work out but if not its off to grad school
Why? TWC does have a product problem.
Well this will probably be my second last update on this storm, fortunately the brunt of the storm is heading south were looking at 6-7 inches at this point that could increase up to 10-12 (pretty slight chance for THAT much) as most of the bad stuff will get caught in the Appalachian region in NC
As far as the rest of the state and region goes, expect snow up into the Shenandoah valley stopping around Winchester. East of the blue ridge mountains out towards the tidewater expect ice (although I do believe that the tidewater will be missed) the ice will stretch all the way down to Georgia where again they will be losing their shit (pardon my french) expect some significant ice south of NC fortunately here in the burg its looking like straight snow
how much do you think for the shenandoah? because they're just calling for snow showers 50% chance with no accumulations given.
Weather.gov (my go-to site for immediate forecasts) has been steadily increasing, from 30% on Tue, Wed, and Thu late last week to 50% on Wed and Thu over the weekend to 80% on Wed and Wed night now. Still no accumulations given, but we'll get something.
My grandmother lives in Weyers Cave, the forecast there:
Wednesday: "Snow likely after 1pm. ... Chance of precipitation is 60%."
Wednesday Night: "Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
They usually update with estimated amounts 24-48 hours before the storm hits, in my experience, and they're moderately accurate, at least compared to most, such as TWC (when they actually show weather anymore).
You all are Ef-ed.
While your snowed in, enjoy this!
That's whT I'm talking about. Thx for putting this up.
Northern Virginia is looking at like 2-3" southwest VA and NC are looking at like the 8+ range, its gonna be a fun few days fersure, more updates will be on their way as the storm progresses and begins to form. Also I'd expect it to hit wed night and snow well into Thursday.....I really hope my professor cancels her class Thursday
They're starting to talk about it on the local broadcasts. But the highs look to be above in the 40s in Richmond after it passes through.
Yeah it all depends on that freezing line, and you gotta keep an eye on that low the night before and the night after too this is gonna be an all day kind of event
Richmond is kinda right on the cusp of either freezing rain or some sleet/rain so I'm not gonna be as confident with that prediction. I'll wait for the soundings before I go nuts
URGENT
Holy hell.... euro just updated... were looking at quite the event a lot more extreme than I expected
My friends in I were discussing it in class earlier and they were lowballing it at 6", now were looking at 12, with up to 20 in central VA. we came in for our second class today and I heard them discussing it. Decided to check the models again and it seems the storm track is spelling trouble for VA. Track has moved north from NC giving us a nice black color, and central VA a white color... id post the picture but I pay for the site... and I feel like that's illegal or something so ill refrain. Give me a second ill see if I can find another site...
Either way fact of the matter is Blacksburg we could be looking at 15-20" and an epic snow event. Prepare accordingly the model should zero in on the next 24 hours with what's gonna happen!
Thanks for all these updates Eshiben5!! You rock
I 2nd AMB4VT.
No problem gents. Its the keyplay and weather.... like what more could I ask for?! My two favorites in one place
so what does that mean for Asheville? no snow?
Dunno if this is good or bad news for you but.... there's gonna be a large accumulation there too (you mean NC right?) the track is almost perfect that its gonna run right through Asheville right into Blacksburg and central Virginia before pulling north up into the northeast
sooooooo you're gonna know how bad its gonna be about 3-4 hours ahead of us, id prepare for a pretty big snowfall, those of you in south Carolina and eastern north Carolina theres a legitimate chance that you could get a significant ice storm, buy water and whatever you need, and be prepared to be stuck in your house a few days.... hopefully power doesn't kick out for any of us
well I'm conflicted...growing up in Central Va I didn't get the amount of snow that causes people to absolutely hate it (like Michigan, Minnesota et al) so I LOVE snow and lots of it. I had a blast in the 30 inches we had around Christmas '09. Since moving down to Asheville (2010) I have only seen about 2 snowfalls that I would consider real snow (4-8") and it's been really boring for the last 2 years. We had a couple inches a week ago or so and it was the best snowfall I've seen here since the '10-'11 winter (sad, I know). All that being said, a large snow storm would generally be really exciting for me, BUUUT...my GF is supposed to be coming down from NOVA to visit for Valentines day weekend...if the roads suck that likely won't happen. I was about to be super pissed if VA got hammered, preventing her from coming down, but NC got nothing. That would be a double whammy for me..not getting to see her AAAAND not getting any snow to show for it....If we get a foot of snow it will soften the sting of not seeing the lil lady
Ideally, the storm doesn't turn out to be what everyone is saying it will, and I'll get to see her this weekend. Honestly, for the first time in my life, I actually don't want it to snow
I actually really don't care about you mentioning your gf, but since you did it a few times I thought this was humorous:
IT'S TRUE! I HAVE A GIRLFRIEND
haha..I like the comic though. +1
Of course you like the comic, it's xkcd. Everyone likes xkcd.
Agreed on the power concerns... how else will I get my TKP fix?
4G
But my phone will likely die within 6 hours from the constant refreshing...
I suppose I could buy a new battery (or 5) from Amazon, and pay for 1-day shipping...
DO YOU HAVE A CAR CHARGER?
I don't want to go all the way out to my car in 2 feet of snow.
Geeze, I don't think I've seen anywhere near a foot of snow in Richmond since I was in middle school. This could be rough.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.2724841&lon=-80.43265209... MY MISTAKE, seems the government isn't confident enough yet to give a numerical prediction, expect it in the next few hours possibly tomorrow morning at the latest, the euro is still off the charts, stay tuned
They also have an "avalanche warning". Exciting.
EDIT: After further inspection, that says Utah?
Does it?! Whoops my bad, I'm in class talking about lightning right now so my brain is kinda everywhere
Snow, Lightning, Dogs living with cats, oh my!! Complete Hysteria!
It's freaking awesome that while I get my dose of #AllHokieEverything I can get a weather forecast AND updates on the cake vs. pie (cake all the way) debate. So THANK YOU for posting.
What's it looking like for the DC area? Chuck Bell and Tom Kierein just keep forecasting rain...
uhhhhhh I wouldn't be so sure with the rain, it depends where the freezing line, I'm sticking with my guns though of 9-11" this last model run is a little ambitious for me but if it works out.... ill eat my words and worship the overlords of the euro. Seriously if this thing winds up being like 20" I want to meet the makers of the euro and shake their hands/give them the biggest man hug of all times.
As for the DC area id predict snow, its gonna be close but we'll go with a healthy 5-6" when all is said and done, possibly a chance of ice... your weathermen are being silly if they're just saying straight rain it will update shortly my friend just informed me that the NWS just released their forecast....5-10" which seems to me like they're trying to cover their butts if it still misses, however they're basically guaranteeing that we get hit by something. I'd favor the higher end of that forecast
I'm ready. Just went out and bought 10 cans of maroon paint. Now when the batteries run out I can #allmarooneverything in order to stay sane.
http://noapologyvameteorology.blogspot.com/2014/02/12z-mid-day-model-upd... my dear friend and fellow MET major hans posted some nice graphics and explanations on his site, feel free to check it out, as mentioned before euro is looking good, Canadian is looking very good too (he prefers Canadian, I prefer euro)
ALSO northern Virginia if you favor the Canadian over the Euro do recognize that the snow totals and track of the storm is expected to hit you guys a little harder. I personally prefer a blend of the Euro and Canadian (Canadian's numbers with Euro's track) but its still a little far out to be giving out certainties. I'm off to my physics lab, next update and opportunity to answer questions will be in 2 hours!
Around 4pm the NWS issued a Winter Storm watch for us in Richmond.
How are the models looking today?
Well, I suppose that depends on your point of view.
Models for 11 Feb 9:12 AM
PS I'm a woman and I'm at work. So thanks for that.
That's why I added the whole page so the Cheppendale types got on there too. All inclusive here.
Sorry about the work thing though.
I should have known better.
Somebody give me a down vote please so I remember.
Sorry, no can do buddy.
The local TV weather teams are thinking Richmond could see a good deal of the mix instead of mostly snow. That would probably mean a good deal of power outages.
Phew wadup everyone I'm sticking to my guns on this one! The Canadians tracking further east now I'm gonna dissect these more in a sec sorry its taking so long I slept in today I'm battling a bit of a cold
Any who the euro seems very confident with its initial forecast which means a buttload of snow in the valley all the way up into nova before tracking north just east of the blue ridge is gonna get PUMMELED however the Chesapeake region is looking at mostly rain and sleet. This remains my favorite but I'll disect these more within the next hour! Keep in touch and feel free to drop a question or comment!
Thanks... I'll keep sitting here clicking the refresh key while you do your thing. :-)
I wonder if the rain/snow line will stay east of Richmond?
ooph that seems to be a common question here and my gut feeling is....snow for a majority of the snow that will turn to sleet/rain. As we creep into Thursday the 850 MB readings are showing some warmer air moving into the atmosphere, so for Richmond id venture they get some snow on wed going into early Thursday but it will turn into rain much sooner than it will for everyone else. I'd venture to say 1-3" for Richmond.
As for Blacksburg im gonna up the forecast a little bit. I'm going to venture to say 9"-11" of snow for us throughout the period a little up from my 8-10, I really like the 9 number mostly because I can post things like this...
9"!!!!
anywho looking at northern Virginia id expect close to a foot of snow as it seems the track of the storm is going right up central VA and the blue ridge region and heading right at you id venture to say 10+ inches for you guys as well
north Carolina - id expect a large snowfall event west of charolette. possibly 14 inches or more (don't count on that) but it will be a lot, east of charolette and south Carolina all the way down to Georgia is looking at a HUGE freezing rain/ice event that could leave 3/4" of ice in certain regions. So if you live further south PLEASE take my advice and stock up on water TP and things to keep you warm, power going out is a strong possibility. also furthermore this will be a very wet, heavy snow which could lead to lots of falling tree branches and loss of power, so be forewarned.
Id expect this to hit around noon on Wed. with this storm also expect some slight winds, possibly around 10 MPH gusts....any more questions feel free to ask a few more questions!!!!
You're helping a lot of folks. Great work!! Gotta be a Hokie!!
First of all..thank you so much for keeping everyone posted. It's been awesome having our own resident meteorologist...I don't know if you could clarify things a little bit for me though because west of Charlotte is a big area for NC. From what I've been hearing around here it seems like Marion will get hammered pretty hard but places like Marshall and Burnsville won't get quite as much. I don't know if you could give some insight for me there but I'm curious what I'll be dealing with. I live in Weaverville and will be driving through(near) Marshall to get to work in Burnsville.
Thanks again for all the info..it's been interesting and could prove to be very helpful!
Cheers!
weather.gov is currently reporting 1-3 inches tomorrow during the day and 1-3 tomorrow during the night...so 2-6 in Weaverville, NC.
to be fair the government has really been selling this one short, like....way short....iunno why they're playing it safe and I haven't been in on to many discussions but I think its gonna be a little stronger than that, sorry it took so long to get back to you (lunch with the girlfriend....btw turner place has eel rolls now!!!!!)
in another note I think youre gonna get a little more than that, id venture 8" for you me and my friends are all in the lab making models and watching animations now, my friend chris has it at 6-10" sooooooo yeah
thanks for the update. I might understand why they're selling it short...I'm a bit skeptical of a huge storm myself..seeing as I've seen less than 8 inches of snow combined in the last 2 years...but we'll see what happens..only time will tell
fair enough but all accounts, and all non-governmental meteorologists think this is gonna be BIG. the government and professionals just have to be very careful about these things because if they overhype them and then it doesn't come through, they're in a lot of trouble
expect HEAVY snow forecasts to come in within the next 24 hours, Im about 90% sure we're gonna get some large totals out of this but you have every reason to be skeptical based on my previous statements. People are so careful that sometimes they screw it all up, being a college student, with no income on the line whatsoever I have absolutely no pressure....I could say it would snow 50" of snow and ultimately I wouldn't be punished from a higher exec. whereas they could lose their jobs for something so ridiculous. I strongly believe though that we'll be seeing probably the most significant snow event here since..... eh ill go ahead and say like 2011
expect more than 2-6"! coming from me!!!!
Well..as you know by now..I'm conflicted. I hope for the sake of your pride you're not far off...but for different reasons I hope you're wrong.
I really do appreciate you keeping everyone up to speed with this. It's pretty cool to have a go-to meteorologist on TKP. Thank you for all that you've done!
no problem yall give me a place to give my forecasts, and I appreciate it so thank YOU for being so supportive
This made the high school kid in me laugh...
Oh man eel?!? Turner Place sushi disappointed me last time I tried it but I might have to go back for that. Any good?
wasn't the best ive ever hard but its pretty hard to ruin eel, they have it on Tuesdays and Thursday its like a special....and for three $ off my meal plan...you can bet your sweet ass im gonna eat 8 pieces of eel rolls
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1pm Wednesday until 7pm Thursday.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10203474066035686&set=a.26263593... fellow meteorologist Chris Stickle's lovely GIS model prediction for the snow event. He's shooting a little higher than I am
You all be safe up there. None of this:
Just stay home and blog on TKP!!!
I might have soiled myself if I was in that situation...
I might have soiled you if you were in that situation too.
How big is this storm? Weather.gov is saying 2-5 inches overnight here.
...and I live in Alabama. We got one inch last night and the entire city shut down.
pretty big, your regions looking more at ice than anything...could be up to an inch in some places if im not mistaken
also I totally misheard my friend earlier....we should rename the winter storm to THOR because...it just sounds so much cooler than pax and way meaner...and that's precisely what this storm is...mean and awesome
I don't know if this will affect Virginia at all but the local weather station in Burnsville, NC is reporting light snow and a dry spot in the storm...essentially saying that we're not going to get even close to what people were predicting.
Well, sounds like you lucked out. And hopefully the interstates are cleared in time for your girlfriend to visit this weekend.
(sorry, I had to do it. I also understand the long distance thing, it sucks. I've been doing it for 6.5 years now.)
haha...thanks!
Sitting at the office (in Blacksburg), and just looked out the window...
Yeah y'all got the dry socket, might hit us as well but either way this is quite the storm those things are impossibly hard to predict.
Also im gonna break out a skewt here soon, Dave just broke out the skewt from the 2009 snowmageddon storm and its almost identical to the storm were currently looking at
Lookin like the big dry socket is heading east towards Roanoke and the coast, 2nd minor dry socket looks like its headed towards Lynchburg so they'll get a little less if it hits but still a good bit, I'd love to get some updates/pictures if possible
how much is that dry socket affecting western NC?
A good bit it'll prolly take a couple of inches off the forecast however I do have some bad news my friend....its looking like the primary track of the storm is gonna pummle I-81 so if your lady friend planned on taking that route..... good be a tad rough
well the forecast was only for about 8 inches...so that takes us down to like 5 or 6...basically my worst case scenario..Va gettin hammered on I-81 and WNC getting a laughable amount of snow...lame :/
it's not snowing here at the moment and it was supposed to stop early tomorrow morning...so unless it dumps 1"+ per hour starting around now we're not going to get more than 4-6...arghh I hate weather sometimes!!!
sorry dude :\ you have my sympathies on the bright side, it could hit really hard really fast weve already got at least an inch or two and it just started like an hour or two ago
Hey, did you guys know that we were supposed to get some snow in VA area? just heard it on the radio
Phhhht....That's funny
Snowing very hard here in Roanoke at the north edge of the county line not on the mountain top. Looks like a little better than an inch an hour right now. Visibility about 300 yds. Easy 1/4" on the ground right now.
Takes about 5 minutes for a handful of birdseed to be not visible.
Road is getting covered despite chemical laid down last night.
If you need to be somewhere and you are in Roanoke, go be there right now.
Yeah, within 30 minutes of starting, all the treated roads in Blacksburg (460 bypass included) were covered. What was normally a 5 minute drive home took closer to 15.
If it took you 15 minutes, you're doing it wrong
But really though, be careful out there people.
Over an inch on the ground here now.
Snowing harder. almost no wind so, no drifting. Visibility about 200 yds.
No sign of the dry spot.If it keeps at tis rate, we'll have close to 10" by midnight.
yeah the dry socket is opening up just south of asheville and then closing up again right as it passes asheville...it's weird..almost like the storm is avoiding me intentionally...we don't even have 1/4" here
Well then, if I'd have known Asheville was going to be relatively clear and my business shut down here for a couple days, I would have taken a research trip to Asheville for a couple days.
BTW, visibility here down under 200 yds, maybe under 100 yds. It's coming down thick and the little birds have eaten through my snowfall rate estimator I referenced earlier.
Seriously, who has a 5 minute commute? I'm jealous.
That's something I miss a lot about Blacksburg. I had a 5-minute commute during grad school. Today, my commute tripled, but that meant going from 30 minutes to 1.5 hours...and it wasn't even snowing yet.
Sounds like you had to deal with Maryland drivers....
Every day. If a cloud crosses in front of the sun, people freak out. Lord help me if real precipitation actually comes down.
Takes me 15 minutes from when I decide to leave my apartment to get until I sit at my desk. The drive is around 5-8 minutes depending on whether someone in front of my gate forgot their badge.
People that live in southern Blacksburg and work at the CRC. As long as you don't have the typical 8-5 workday, that is.
10"-14" in Hershey, PA forecasted. Working From Home and cooking BBQ all day.
#teamvinegarsauce
Quick go fill some growlers at Troegs before it gets too bad to travel.
Pick me up a bar of that ber shampoo they have while you're there.
It's good stuff.
I wish I could work from home. But instead my office has closed for tomorrow. That's maybe happened twice since i have been there in the last ten yrs. So yay! BBQ sounds much better than the meatloaf I just made.
Yeah, the local market where I get good meat had a sale on babybacks, $2.29/lb.
I got 4 half racks. I'll fire up the smoker tomorrow in the snow storm and smoke 'em for a while then put them in the oven for a couple hours to finish them off.
Stout and bourbon in the snowstorm and ribs for dinner. The drippings will make a great sauce on potato. BBQ drippings on fries is a great tailgate food.
Damn, I wish there was a game on tomorrow...
Maybe dig up the Miami game on ESPN on demand...
Wife just gave a double thumbs up to smoking ribs in the snow storm tomorrow. Real cool, she said.
Also, she recommended Irish coffees with breakfast.
I knew there was a reason I married that woman and she reminds me every Freekin' day.
Everything about that sounds awesome. I really need a smoker. Sounds as if I am missing out.
Nicely smoked brings out lots of nice complex flavors.
Alton Brown has an episode on Food Network on how to smoke using cardboard boxes and a hot plate.
Real nice low tack and low cost way to go.
Snow has begun to fall in Richmond.
You all be safe up there. With the Olympics going on and all of the Snow coming down, I thought this was appropriate:
Wow...so uhhh remember the whole worshipping the euro creators? Yeah.... I'm never doubting this thing again ...holy shit we easily have 14-16" and it looks like a blizzard outside, it wasnt being ambitious...it just knew it was right
15" of snow yesterday, 2" more today... and the satellite dish JUST went down. No more olympics for me, I guess.
State College PA has about a foot at the moment. Expecting a few more inches tonight.
Yeah blacksburg might have set a new record for snow accumulation I'll do a nice little thread whether or not it gets confirmed next week