North Carolina comes into today's game on a ten game winning streak, which has fueled their run back into NCAA position. Early in the season this team couldn't seem to beat anyone that wasn't ranked, losing to the likes of Belmont, Wake Forest and Miami. They are averaging 77 points a game thus far and may have the perfect offensive players to combat James Johnson's 2-3 Zone defense.
Marcus Paige, Leslie McDonald and J.P. Tokoto are all capable of driving the basketball into the lane to create shots or create openings for James McAdoo and Brice Johnson under the basket. Of the five starters, only Tokoto isn't averaging in double figures this season, and he comes in with a measly 9.8 PPG, so they are a very well balanced team when it comes to scoring. They do seem to have a weakness in that most of their losses have come on the road, so that could work in the Hokies favor.
The critical aspect of this game will be how the Hokies block out McAdoo and Johnson. If North Carolina gets more than ten second chance points it will likely be too much for Tech to overcome. I expect JJ to keep this game as slow as possible to limit the number of possessions as he has done the last five games. He will try to force the outside shot, which isn't a bad plan as the Tar Heels are only shooting 35% from behind the arc. I am concerned that with their ability to drive the basketball, Tech could be in foul trouble early and often for hand checks on Paige and McDonald as they attempt to break the zone.
Unfortunately, I do not anticipate Tech having enough to get it done today. I think we will see a score of something like 65-56 as a final score. I hope I am wrong and that the Hokies upset the apple cart. If that's to happen, they will have to get big contributions from JVZ, Wood, and Thompson as the UNC big men have a tendency of getting into foul trouble themselves. Both of them come in averaging almost three fouls per game, so a big push with the inside guys early could change the entire landscape of this basketball game.
Go Hokies, get the upset!!
Television:
http://www.theacc.com/#!/news-detail/ACC-Network-for-ACCMBB-North-Caroli...
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