TKP FANTASY FOOTBALL - WEEK 11

2 more weeks until the playoffs. In case you haven't been paying attention, here's how the playoffs will go:

Top 4 make the playoffs in each Conference. Week 14 pits the 1 seeds vs. the 4 seeds and the 2 seeds vs. the 3 seeds. The winners of the Week 14 match-ups face each other for their Conference Championship in week 15.

That's when the fun begins - the three Conference Champions will face off in a two week battle between weeks 16 and 17. I will compute the stats by hand. Week 16 will have standard league scoring (Frank Beamer conference and Sam Rogers conference scoring) and Week 17 will have 0.5 PPR scoring (Bud Foster scoring scoring).

Because this system lacks flexibility (has to be done over email), I'll be the one to be flexible. For week 16, you must email me at sean(dot)t(dot)hogan(at)gmail(dot)com 1 hour before games start on a given day if you intend to start a player and you must tell me which position they're starting in (QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE, FLEX, DST, K). You do not need to email me your entire lineup on a Thursday night, just players that are playing in that night's games, but I would suggest sending me your entire lineup anyways since I am allowing you to email me to revise later on.

Week 16 is tricky because there are Thursday and Saturday games, so you'll need to email me by 7:30 on Thursday if you have any players playing then and an hour before the start of the Saturday and Sunday games for your players playing on those days. If you do not get a lineup in, I will default to your lineup the previous week completely, even if a player is benched, injured, etc., so please remember to get your lineups in. I will accept as many lineup revisions as you need up until 5 minutes before a players game starts, but please try and get them in earlier when possible.

Winner will get their choice of any one item from TKP Store (a t-shirt or a set of pint glasses).

FRANK BEAMER CONFERENCE

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Centaurrian Gray (T-1st in record, 2nd in points, 1st in PR)
Johnny Manzeitgeist (T-1st in record, 3rd in points, 3rd in PR)
Demaryius Targaryen (T-1st in record, 4th in points, 2nd in PR)
All three of these teams are in with one win in the next two weeks. Each team has a matchup against a bottom-4 team and a team in the "Fighting Chance" category. If the three end up with the same record (pretty solid chance), Centaurrian Gray has a 49 point head start on Johnny Manzeitgeist and a 52 pointer on Demaryius Targaryen for the #1 overall seed, which could end up being the worst seed if Team Griffindor makes it into the playoffs.

FIGHTING CHANCE
Team Daniballsdeep (4th in record, 6th in points, 5th in PR)
Turn Down For Watt (5th in record, 7th in points, 6th in PR)
Team Griffindor (6th in record, 1st in points, 4th in PR)
A Daniballsdeep victory over Turn Down For Watt eliminates Team Griffindor, but Daniballs lost to the previously 1-8-1 Team Cody w/ a C last week, so that's far from a guarantee. Daniballs and CharlesK both have tough final two games (they play each other in week 12, as previously mentioned, then Daniballs gets Centaurrian Gray and CharlesK gets Demaryius Targaryen), so there is still a slight window for Team Griffindor, the league's top scorer and hottest team (averaging 112.5 points per game over the last 4 weeks, which is 13.25 more than the next best team over that stretch, Johnny Manzeitgeist) to make it in. If Griffindor can get by Johnny Manzeitgeist in week 12 and Turn Down For Watt beats Daniballsdeep, we're gonna have a crazy finish here.

EXTREMELY UNLIKELY
Vick In A Box (T-7th in record, 5th in points, 7th in PR)
Treadmill Horses (T-7th in record, T-8th in points, 9th in PR)
Team Morton (T-7th in record, 10th in points, 8th in PR)
It's not out of the question that Dani goes 0-2, CharlesK goes 1-1, RealDiehl goes 1-1 or 0-2 and Vick In A Box finishes 2-0 and steals 4th place, as they face both Treadmill Horses and Team Morton over the next two weeks. While Treadmill Horses and Team Morton are not mathematically eliminated, it would take a 2-0 finish and two amazing scoring weeks for them to win a tiebreak over Daniballs and CharlesK.

SOUVLAKI FOOTBALL GRAVEYARD

The BeLealver (10th in record, T-8th in points, 10th in PR)
Team Cody w/ a C (11th in record, 12th in points, 12th in PR)
BeerMe Egbert (12th in record, 11th in points, 11th in PR)
Each of these teams faces a team in playoff limbo (The BeLealver gets Centaurrian Gray, Team Cody w/ a C gets Demaryius Targaryen and Team Griffindor and Team Egbert gets Treadmill Horses), so they still have the ability to play spoiler.

BUD FOSTER CONFERENCE

CLINCHED
Denied Pussy Touchdown (1st in record, 1st in points, 1st in PR)
Vick In A Box (2nd in record, 2nd in points, 2nd in PR)
Denied Pussy Touchdown has the inside track on the #1 seed, but faces the #s 3 and 4 teams over the last two weeks. Still, a win or a Vick In A Box loss to either Houston Swedish Chef or Dork Magic would give prripper 1st place in the regular season.

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Cajun Graham-Balaya (3rd in record, 3rd in points, 3rd in PR)
A win and theyre in. It wont be easy (Denied Pussy Touchdown in week 12 and Highty Tighty Phoenix in week 13), but a loss by Fosters D gets after ya or Houston Swedish Chef would get them in too.

FIGHTING CHANCE
Fosters D gets after ya (T-4th in record, 4th in points, 4th in PR)
Houston Swedish Chef (T-4th in record, 5th in points, 5th in PR)
Both of these teams have a game against one of the top two teams in points and a game against one of the bottom two teams in points. They are only separated by 15.5 points in the standings. 1-1 finishes by both teams would not surprise me, and since the points are close, dis gon be gud.

EXTREMELY UNLIKELY
Highty Tighty Phoenix (6th in record, 7th in points, 6th in PR)
Ticket Oak (7th in record, 12th in points, 12th in PR)
Dork Magic (T-8th in record, 6th in points, 7th in PR)
Kuhn On The Cobb (T-8th in record, 8th in points, 8th in PR)
I originally had Highty Tighty Phoenix in the Fighting Chance category, but they absolutely have to win both of their remaining games against Kuhn On The Cobb (who is much better in week 12 than their record/points/power ranking suggest) and Cajun Graham-balaya. They still absolutely have a chance, but I would say its less than 10%, because they need to both win and have Fosters D and Houston Swedish Chef lose. Ties suck. There will be no ties next year. Remind me next year to eliminate ties, as that is a default ESPN setting.
Ticket Oak is virtually eliminated with a loss or a win by one of the 6-5 teams. They arent going to win the points tiebreak, so they need 2 wins and help. With matchups vs Cartoons Plural and Houston Swedish Chef, I dont like their chances. Dork Magic and Kuhn On The Cobb arent officially mathematically eliminated yet, but will be with a loss or a win by one of the 6-5 teams, and neither are in position to win a tiebreak, so consider them done.

SOUVLAKI FOOTBALL GRAVEYARD

Roccos Italian Army (10th in record, 11th in points, 10th in PR)
3rd and 31 (11th in record, 9th in points, 9th in PR)
Cartoons Plural (12th in record, 10th in points, 11th in PR)
Roccos matchup vs Fosters D gets after ya in week 12 is the only real matchup here that can be a spoiler. Cartoons Plural and 3rd and 31 can put the nail in the coffin against Ticket Oak and Dork Magic in week 12, respectively.

SAM ROGERS CONFERENCE

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Doges Plural (1st in record, 3rd in points, 2nd in PR)
Team Powers Mojo (2nd in record, 5th in points, 4th in PR)
Nobody has clinched here. Thats crazy. Doges Plural clinches a playoff spot with a win over Sarah Stone in week 12 or Team Powers Mojo in week 13, but those are both top 5 teams. One loss by at least two of the 7-4 teams over the last two weeks would give them the clinch as well, though, and two of them play each other, so their chances of making the playoffs are probably at 99%. Team Powers Mojo just needs a win to clinch as well, as the BourbonBeamerBudBrewer vs. Sarah Stone matchup in week 13 guarantees at least one of those teams will lose (I guess they could tie, but that still wouldnt do it).

FIGHTING CHANCE
Carolina Sex Panthers (T-3rd in record, 1st in points, 1st in PR)
Bourbon BeamerBudBrewer (T-3rd in record, 2nd in points, 3rd in PR)
Sarah Stone DD Here 4 the TDs (T-3rd in record, 4th in points, 5th in PR)
Its a three team race for the other two spots. In all honesty, the Sarah Stone vs Bourbon BeamerBudBrewer game in week 13 is likely an elimination game. Carolina Sex Panthers has the easiest remaining schedule of these teams, facing Whigs and Torreys and Team FranklyIncensed, while BourbonBeamerBudBrewer (can I just call you the Killer Bs?) gets Megatrons Johnson and Sarah Stone and Sarah Stone gets Doges Plural and the Killer Bs. Again, this is gonna be really fun to watch (as an outsider, of course. This will suck for one of the teams involved).

EXTREMELY UNLIKELY
Fuller Up (6th in record, 11th in points, 8th in PR)
Demarcotion Criteria (T-7th in record, 6th in points, 6th in PR)
Megatrons Johnson (T-7th in record, 7th in points, 7th in PR)
Whigs and Torreys (T-7th in record, 10th in points, 9th in PR)
Technically none of these teams are eliminated, but the 5-6 teams are all so far behind in points that they arent going to win a tiebreak even if they can force a tie. Fuller Up has two winnable games left (Team FranklyIncensed and Team Copeland, who are a combined 4-18), but since one of the Killer Bs and Sarah Stone is guaranteed a win, they would pretty much need Carolina Sex Panthers to drop their last two games to slide into the #4 spot.

SOUVLAKI FOOTBALL GRAVEYARD

Champagne Supernovaks (T-10th in record, 8th in points, 11th in PR)
Team Copeland (T-10th in record, 9th in points, 10th in PR)
Team FranklyIncensed (12th in record, 12th in points, 12th in PR)
Champagne Supernovaks can throw a wrench into Team Powers Mojos plans with an upset in week 12. Team Copeland can officially end both Demarcotion Criteria and Fuller Ups seasons in weeks 12 and 13, respectively. Frank is averaging 58.25 points over his last 4 weeks, so I wont put Fuller Up or Carolina Sex Panthers on upset alert.