With Duke beating UVA and UNC beating GT, we're back to being in reasonably good shape in the coastal.
Before I continue, the obvious issue is we need to play better down the stretch or else none of this matters. But still, this weekend worked out great for us:
UVA has 1 loss, and we'll have the opportunity to give them their 2nd and own the tie breaker. They also play at FSU so probably another loss.
Duke has 1 loss, and we'll have the opportunity to give them their 2nd and own the tie breaker
UNC has 2 losses, and we already own the tie breaker
Miami has 2 losses, and we'll have a chance to give them their 3rd. They also play FSU so probably another loss.
Obviously, where it gets more complicated is with the teams that beat us:
GT has 2 losses but has the tie breaker over VT. However, they still play Clemson, and with the way their D played against Duke and UNC, that has a pretty good shot at being a loss. GT also plays Pitt, UVA, and NC State.
Pitt is the toughest...they have only 1 loss AND own the tie breaker over VT. But, they still play GT, Duke, UNC, Miami, and Syracuse. We'd have to hope there's 2 more losses in there, or maybe 1 loss that creates a 3-way tie that we somehow win.
Anyway...we gotta get our own issues fixed first and hope we can win 5 in a row, but nothing wrong with a little optimism...
Comments
This is an exercise in futility.
I hope our guys are focused on winning the next game and after that focused on the next and so on.
Exactly.
Saying we almost control our own destiny is like me saying I'm almost a unicorn...just need a horn, four legs, skills, and magic.
Hilarious!
Like this?
Who is almost a unicorn?
(Sigh)... you are.
I imagine the players don't even think about it much. This is just a fan problem. The players are always just focused on the next game, next game. The fan base is chewing on their collective fingernails & charting spread sheets to determine possible outcomes. It's just what we do.
While we still have a shot at the Coastal title, it just seems like there's another loss or two out there for us. I feel confident about BC & Wake, none of the others. Of course, Miami is so streaky that we might easily beat them, like we've done the last couple of times. But, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us dominate Miami, then turn around & lose to BC because of a lack of focus. Finally, UVa is playing well enough this year to make me worry that they might finally break the streak.
So, you can see, the fans tend to just sit around & go in circles talking ourselves in & out of confidence. We just have to let it play out, and we'll know something Black Friday night. Or that Saturday, actually, I guess. Heck, I just realized we won't even know after the UVa game. Ah, well...
I wouldn't be so sure players don't worry about it.
But even as Brewer decompressed in the woods after the first six starts of his college career, football was never far away. He checked his phone every two minutes Saturday until he knew for sure Duke had beaten Georgia Tech, the team that bested Virginia Tech in its ACC opener when Brewer had no touchdown passes and three interceptions.
I think is more about something we can focus on.
Message board posting has no impact on the football team preparation
I see your point and I too remain optimistic......but did you see that "dumpster fire" of an offense that Clemson had against BC. Clearly their back up QB is nowhere near the playmaker as D. Watson! Hopefully he fully heals before PJ comes to town! Hopefully we get our shit together and start to score some points!
It's not quite as bad as it was last November, when no team controlled their own destiny.
At least Duke is ahead of the pack with control right now.
Over in the Atlantic, NC State has been officially eliminated. Even if the entire division implodes and a 4-4 conference record can win, they don't have enough tiebreakers.
I came up with a full breakdown here: http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2014/10/acc-wheel-of-destiny-week-8.html
Very nice lay of the land for the Coastal - it is pretty straight forward what has to happen for VT to make it to Charlotte.
Having said that, even at my most optimistic, I don't see VT winning out. And another loss likely means no shot at Charlotte.
I will be in Lane on Thu night for my only game of the year. I'm traveling from Nashville, taking Thu and Fri off, and really looking forward to the atmosphere and hopefully a big win.
Go Hokies!
the last time the hokies controlled their destiny they went and laid a stinky egg at Heinz field . im done being disappointed. i'll believe it when I see it.
What are you referring to? The last time we played at Pitt, it was an out of conference game, and had no bearing on our destiny. And we already lost control of our destiny this year after letting GT win.
how is pitt an out of conference game? you must not know what conference vt plays in. when GT lost to Duke, Vt was also in control of its destiny.
I believe he was referring to playing at Pitt in 2012 (which would be the last time we played at Pitt not including Thursday).
At that point, Pitt was not an ACC team.
The initial post was correct. The last time we played at Pitt and controlled our destiny was 2 days ago.
I didn't deny your initial post, just trying to clarify what I perceived as a misunderstanding.
I was referring to 2012. Because this year, we did not control our destiny going into the Pitt game. After GT beat us, we needed them to lose twice. Their loss to Duke was only their first loss. Therefore, they still would have beaten us on head-to-head.
VT controlled its destiny going in to the game on Thursday at Pitt. Not sure what you are talking about.
Edit: my mistake. I think he was assuming a 2nd GT loss already to a Clemson or other team
As soon as I read the post, I started scrolling for the D&D quote. A leg for you my friend.
Youre only hurting yourself with this stuff...
We just lost to a bad Pitt team. If we somehow make it to Charlotte its because everyone else was too terrible to claim it on their own.
I just want us to finish with more wins than losses. And the way we're playing that might he a stretch this year.
We still have more wins than losses. I'm not so sure I'm going to take this bad of a "the sky is falling" opinion just yet.
We always lose to a bad Pitt team.
Looking at the series on hokiesports.com, the only time we've played a ranked Pitt, they were #25 to our #5.
It's not a stretch to think that we can't at least win two more games.
Agreed. Couldn't help but notice this could have been copied and pasted after the GT game as well. Frankly, I don't hold much more hope for us to bounce back at this point than I did after that game. I fully believe 6-2 would easily win the coastal this year and would bet on it being a team at 5-3. Another loss, especially to Duke or UVA, would probably be the dagger due to tiebreakers.
Love the optimism. We're such hopeless football romantics. There's probably a disease associated with our passions...that, or maybe we're just a little "Hokie"?
We just need to focus on each game as that week starts. At the end of the day, we weren't ranked 21st and didn't lose 59-0. So there's that.
If we were in the $EC we might have been ranked 21st... /semi-sarcastica
Hate to be a downer. But this team does not deserve a shot.
It would just be embarrassing. FSU is light years ahead of the conference. The only team that could make the the ACCCG mildly entertaining would be GT, due to shear option uncertainty.
No one else could stop that offense or defense.
I for one hope tech just finish up this schedule without another false start and make some sort of step forward. That might be the only thing they control at this point.
Deserving has nothing to do with it. The fact of the matter is that by rule, someone has to win the division to play in the ACCCG.
Last year, with two weeks left in the season, no one controlled their own destiny. But we all knew that whoever won was just the lamb for the FSU slaughter.
In 2012, the Coastal sent its 3rd choice team due to sanctions. GT was so bad, I wanted to apologize to FSU on behalf of the division for having to waste their time with that game.
Currently, we have a circle of defeats within the division. These last few years, no one really deserves to win the Coastal.
going in the Ohio State game there were people that said they were light years ahead of us. This Hokie team is just really inconsistent, they have their highs and their lows. yes, if they go to the ACCCG during one of those lows we're looking at a slaughter house, but if we show up with a high that we had against OSU...it would be at least fun to watch
If we win out on the ACC games and get there....well, then we deserve it.
The beauty of all of this is that no matter what any of us say or think, it has no effect on the outcome of any of the remaining games. In fact, we can focus on each game 1 at a time or we can look down the road to a later game. It still won't matter.
There is a certain freedom in being powerless....
If we win out, you have to believe we are in. GT will lose another, and Pitt will definitely lose two more. Now if that were to happen, we would be playing pretty good and Florida St is very beatable.
However, my guess is we lose to Boston College, possibly one other. I would be very happy with running the table, thatd be the better option.
I completely agree with you. I think that VT could possibly lose another or two but if we were able to get to the coastal it would be a great turnaround and give these young guys some hunger and confidence for next year. I pray we get to the ACCCG mostly because I live there and I could just take the light rail to the stadium and I love VT invading CLT. It would be awesome if it were like a few years ago when FSU and VT played there... That was a great game.
Agreed 100%. I also live nearby have been renewing the same seats to the ACCCG since the FSU game in 2010. I would like like actually use them again.
I'm legitimately worried about every game remaining on our schedule outside of Wake Forest.
Going into the year, I would have had us as the favorites to win the Coastal - we just needed the impossible: no injuries. Especially on the DL. Especially Maddy. Well, we got the injuries and we are struggling. I can accept the results.
We are young and reaaaallly thin at a lot of spots. But we have seen freshman brilliance at skill positions like never before. Brilliance at skill positions...at VT?...and as freshman?
I'm still pumped.
And, oh yeah, we beat OSU in the shoe.
That's where I'm at. And I'll be here all year, regardless.
No offense (and I mean that sincerely) but I'm done giving a damn about standings, ranking, playoffs or anything else for the foreseeable future. I'll start paying attention to that after the program has addressed the consistency issues we see on the field. I'm more concerned with VT being a solid football program than if we somehow manage to back our way into this or that scenario. Ultimately, we're not a good football team this year, and watching us try to reestablish excellence is way more compelling to me than the state of the conference. I care about french's reviews way more than any poll or the standings right now.
Obviously we all will always root for the Hokies to win, I always think a bad season will make them take a step back and evaluate the consistency issues (which, I think, is something that needs to happen). However, us winning out and playing in the ACC championship game (and probably losing to Florida State) will get VT more exposure to recruits, who will help solve the consistency issues. We need one of the above extremes to happen. A middle of the road season with no ACC Championship game won't solve anything.
And to think, people don't give the ACC respect... The coastal is a joke, I just hope we can come out as the winning joke
Everyone has to remember that we are not the same team that beat osu in the shoe, (that's right, that was us)
And another little reminder, just for perspective, from just this week:
Out for Season
Desmond Frye (shoulder)
Sean Huelskamp (knee)
Shai McKenzie (knee)
Colt Pettit (shoulder)
Braxton Pfaff (shoulder)
Mark Shuman (knee)
Out
Kalvin Cline (knee)
Trey Edmunds (clavicle)
Brandon Facyson (shin)
Luther Maddy (knee)
Dahman McKinnon (knee)
Marshawn Williams (ankle)
Doubtful
Carlis Parker (hamstring)
Probable
Woody Baron (ankle)
That OSU game (that glorious victory in the shoe), we had just about everyone available, and we had a coaching staff that put together a masterful plan. We need some depth, but the train is on track. Hang in there everyone.
Don't forget Josh Stanford...although not hurt, the effect of him leaving was the same as an injury.
Any chance he gets the opportunityt to re-live the famous catch and run against the U last year??
He's listed on the roster for Thursday.
...Stupid knees and shoulders
Lets just always focus on winning the next game. If its meant to be, then its meant to be. I just want to see the team/players get better. If the pieces fall into place, then we can focus on winning the Coastal
I agree. Just win. Let the chips fall where they may.
So, what you are saying is that we have 2 conference losses. A 2-loss team will likely win the Coastal. It will likely involve mind-numbing tie-breakers. Those could go our way. It could be us.
I don't think the tiebreakers are going to be mind numbing when we get down to it. Right now, it's mind numbing to try to figure out the exact scenarios for most teams to win the division.
But Pitt loses 2, and GT loses one more, and we keep winning, it's us.
Essentially, VT win out, Pitt lose 2 times, and GT 1 more time. IF VT wins out, they will have beaten UNC, Duke, UVA, and Miami head-to-head, and likely have superior tie-breakers. It would get trickier with 3-way or more ties.
Thank you both. I had not given it much thought.
First, winning out (and having only 2 losses) is likely the ONLY WAY we have a reasonable shot to get in given the next tiebreakers, those being a) division winning percentage and b) head-to-head among the 3+ that would be tied at the top if it is a 3 losses scenario.
Second, assuming we win out, it's Pitt that we need to worry about the most, as Georgia Tech should lose a third game. As you already said, Pitt needs to lose 2 more. They have 4 remaining opponents that could beat them (Georgia Tech/Duke/UNC/Miami) but they should be competitive in all of those games.
In my mind, it is more likely that the division is ours in a scenario of us winning out THAN us actually winning out. We have the best team on paper but some guys are injured so every game save Wake is a fat question mark. I hope we make it happen, as a 9-3 team strolling into Charlotte would definitely mean a lot of things went right for us over the next six weeks. And, I am ready for some things to go right for us.
Just stop.
I like the optimism.
collaborate and listen?
Note the sweatshirt he's wearing...we need to get our minds right and focused on pure hatred of da U.
HAMMERTIME
I like this post, but much like the conversations I have with my dad about the playoff participants, I'm going to refrain from these types of discussions in any seriousness until week 9. You lay this out well, but it's Miami week, that's all that matters.
When you can't run the ball, you don't control the clock. When you don't control the clock you can't win ball games. Assuming the first two hold true, when you can't run the ball...you can't win ball games.
With that said, I'm excited to make the trip out to the 'Burg this week and meet up with some TKPers.
Don't not be able to win ball games, get DirecTV