By the (Advanced) Numbers: Georgia Tech

With national title delusions dashed, Virginia Tech now sets its sights squarely on winning an ACC Championship.

We are currently undefeated in ACC play this season so let's see who we play next...looks like Georgia Tech. Well, I can't imagine this game having any bearing on who wins the Coastal, but let's go ahead and analyze it anyway.

Let's start with the computer rankings.

Where those computers predict the result, and what Vegas thinks.

So Vegas has Tech at about an 8-point favorite this time around, with computer opinions all over the place, including a couple predicting an outright Georgia Tech win. The odds of an 8-point favorite winning are 78.8%. (Note: an improved odds model is now being used in case you're wondering why this is so close to the prediction for an 11-point favorite last week.)

Now let's look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages before diving deeper.

This is comparing strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness in the game. It's a rarity for Virginia Tech when the opposing offense has a higher rating than its defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P ratings, and FEI ratings.

So who has the advantage when Brewer & Co. are operating? First we'll take a look at passing versus rushing, as well as passing downs versus standard downs.

The Hokie offense takes a slight edge almost across the board, but nothing stands out as particularly dominant in either direction. Now let's take a look at the personality of the greater Tech offense versus the Georgia Tech defense:

The Yellow Jackets maintain a surprising advantage on many of these personality metrics, with the exception of explosive drives where VT has shown a greater ability to score in a hurry.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Arkansas State
2. Texas
3. Purdue

Ouch.

The Georgia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. UTEP
2. Wyoming
3. South Florida

LOL.

When the Georgia Tech Has the Ball

Next we analyze strength-on-strength with the VT defense trying to stop the Bees and their painful-to-watch triple option offense. This feels almost unnecessary, but let's again look at pass-run comparisons first.

So to summarize, advanced computer algorithms have figured out that Georgia Tech has a decent rushing and passing offense (remember this is efficiency mostly, so not passing much doesn't mean they're terrible at it) but gets dominated once they are forced into passing situations. Try learning THAT from watching them play.

Maybe we should just move on to personality advantages.

The GT offense maintains an advantage across the board except for one area that is fairly surprising: methodical drives. While the triple option may be known for producing just that, keep in mind that thus far Virginia Tech's defense is exceptionally good at preventing that.

When we've been beat on defense, it's more explosive plays that have done it.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Wisconsin (Okay...)
2. Oklahoma State (Interesting...)
3. Florida International (Stats are useless)

The Georgia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Navy (#analysis)
2. Duke
3. Western Kentucky

Who To Watch Out For

Remember when we were all concerned before the season that there was going to be some kind of 6-RB committee in our backfield? Here's something to chew on: Georgia Tech has recorded carries from NINE RB's already this year. I know they run the triple option, but geez.

Who to watch out for is fairly straightforward with the Yellow Jackets, but keep in mind their first three games have come against weak competition:

1. Quarterback Justin Thomas presents the typical GT QB statistical profile: he runs as often as he throws, but when he throws he tends to have a high YPA—10.3 in this case, with 15.7 attempts/game. Thomas has averaged 6.47 YPC.
2. Splitting carries pretty much equally with Thomas thus far is senior RB Zach Laskey, averaging 5.36 YPC.
3. Senior WR DeAndre Smelter has hauled in far more receptions than any other Bee, averaging 26.44 YPC on 9 receptions.
4. A dark horse to watch out for: senior RB Charles Perkins, who has rushed 9 times for 111 yards on the season.

Statistical Key to the Game

Until they change offensive schemes, the statistical key to the game will be limiting Georgia Tech's yards per carry. Their success has long-been determined by YPC. I don't think anything else needs to be written on the subject.

My Prediction

Georgia Tech always scares me (and every other Hokie), and in my preseason predictions I said this was the key game for the season. I'm really concerned about the injuries on our defensive front considering how important the line is against the triple option, and GT's receivers are comparable in size to the ECU receivers that just won repeated battles against VT's corners. I think that after studying film they take to the air a little more than usual and may push 20 pass attempts in the game.

That said, I trust our DB's to bounce back and not lose that many battles again, and Georgia Tech's defense is very suspect. While I see the Georgia Tech scoring on us, they'll also burn clock and we'll be able to respond.

5.2 YPC by the bees and the final is Hokies 24, Yellow Jackets 23. Game ball to Shai McKenzie who picks apart their D for 140 yards and tricks us into thinking we've found a running game.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.