When it's this early in the season, numbers aren't particularly accurate, but can still tell a partial story, especially about the personality of a team. Also, we can use some statistics and information from last season to aid the analysis.
This is the computer ranking:
This is where those computers predict the result, and what Vegas thinks:
So Vegas has us at about an 11-point underdog, with most computers thinking that should be a little higher. The odds of an 11-point underdog pulling the upset are 21.6%.
What would it take for Tech to do that? Let's first look at any offensive or defensive advantages.
For an 11-point spread, the teams are remarkably close. The Buckeyes playing at home is weighing heavy on that line. Ohio State has won 35 consecutive home openers, is 74-7 overall at Ohio Stadium since the start of the 2002 season, and has won 64 consecutive regular-season home games against unranked, non-conference opponents.
Something's Gotta Give
Let's take a look at a few areas where Virginia Tech and Ohio State showed substantial differences in 2013.
- Ohio State was tied for 1st in the country with 147 rushes of 10+ yards in 2013; Virginia Tech gave up only 51 such runs (T-20th)
- Ohio State had the 2nd-fewest punts returned last year with only 7; VT returned the most with 44 (2nd-most only returned 36)
It will be interesting to see whether the Hokies can limit big rushing plays by Ohio State as well as whether VT chooses to return many punts in the game.
Individual Standouts
- In Week One, Shai McKenzie averaged an absurd 11.78 yards per carry
- Buckeyes WR Devin Smith, who caught 2 passes for 94 yards last week, averaged 15 yards per catch in 2013
Things are going wrong for Tech if...
- Ohio State avoids passing situations (2nd and 8+, or 3rd and 5+). In 2013 they had the No. 1 standard down offense but the No. 18 passing down offense.
- VT is losing the field position battle. Despite an elite defense, the Hokies were 58th in the country in number of points given up relative to expectation based on field position.
- The Buckeyes are winning the turnover battle. The Hokies bested the Buckeyes in 2013 with a +.54 turnover/game margin compared to their +0.36. Given the balance otherwise, this is a likely tipping point.
Things are going well for Tech if...
- VT establishes a running game more effectively than Ohio State. Tech had the 5th-best rush defense last year compared to their 58th and will need to take advantage.
- The Hokies get some TFL's. Ohio State only gave up 4 per game last year (6th nationally) while the Hokies got 7 per game.
- Virginia Tech is scoring more points than Ohio State.
For more statistical details on Ohio State, read Football Study Hall's preview.
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Wow, it's pretty amazing how close we match up, though all of this is from a pretty limited sample size. Still interesting. Thanks, Joel!
Most come from a blend of last year's performance, which players were lost, and last week's performance. so the sample size isn't particularly small, but the estimates are about as rough as they'll be all year.
I really don't get caught up in the numbers anymore. I know those number above do mean something to a certain extant but in reality, any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday. That is one of the biggest reasons why I love college football, so much unpredictability. The only numbers I really care about is that the numbers by "Hokies" is greater than the number by "Ohio State"
Yes - everything is probability and odds. If numbers could tell you with certainty what would happen, I'd be typing you from Las Vegas and not sharing the numbers.
Personally I find "personality" numbers most interesting - I think we all know anOSU is favored, but seeing how their tendencies align with ours gives me something to watch for.
That's my kind of analysis
So your telling me there is a chance?
Technically I told you the exact chance! 21.6%.
Things are going well if we are scoring more points...thanks Madden.
...obviously written as a joke!
The "score more points" is easy joke material down here in the comments too. Don't think we don't appreciate the actual number crunching and data interpretation you do too, especially later in the season :) very insightful, considering how few advanced metrics there are in football and how little press they get. Compared to baseball, which is way more mature in the stats field, football metrics are not easy to find/verify IMO. You do a great job :)
I agree with Madden, I have not seen a team that scores more points, lose yet. Enough said.
Well Michigan had more points on the official scoresheet, but they most definitely lost the 2011 Sugar Bowl.
^Winner^
Edit: got the joke backwards/not funny
Damn, how many punts did they have total? and their avg? I'm wondering if they kick the ball short all the time.
Or a bunch of touchbacks or out-of-bounds kicks.
All great questions - unfortunately we have little data available to state things with certainty but here are some factors:
1. They only averaged 3.5 punts a game, which is very low (T-10th) so there were limited opportunities to begin with
2. They had a good offense, which means they were likely punting from better than average field position. When you're punting from the 50, you likely either kick to the corner and try to get it out of bounds, or the returner is pinned so far back he is unlikely to attempt a return.
Now they did give up a TD on a punt return last year, which resulted in one of the worst yards-per-return rates in the country (16.43 YPR). I suspect they weren't generally bad in this regard, but a long return really raises that average when only 7 punts were returned all year.
3. I think the first two likely explain it, but there may also be a short punt factor as you suggested. They averaged 44 yards per punt though, which is nothing to sneeze at. I wouldn't say generally a 44 yard punt is easily covered downfield. To get good coverage would mean they don't protect the punter much which is unlikely in current times (most teams protect more than previously, which is why VT has stopped pursuing blocks like they used to).
The other traditional reason for fewer returns is longer hang-time, more fair catches. However, since they use the rugby style guy, I don't think this is the reason in this case.
They have a Rugby style punter, whose punts often bounce before getting to the returner, or are angled and low enough the returner can't get there.
Didn't he have some God awful punts this past week? I think it was anOSU vs Navy I was watching. I know it was a rugby style punter.
2 punts for 55.5 average? CI cannot call that awful. Maybe it was another game.
I would be totally surprised if Coach Beamer hasn't been cooking up something for this. He HATES for those punts to bounce, which is why he puts two guys back there.
The punt return game could very well turn this matchup on its ear. Most ruby kicks have very little hang time, so if one of our guys can catch one and return it before those Buckeyes get down the field...
Yes! That's why I'm so curious about how this aspect of the game turns out. Will we play one returner short? Split the field? From https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tiz6tcfLn0k it looks like he still puts enough angle on them that you would be unlikely to block the punt from the middle like you might on a FG.
I'm curious how this will turn out, but am confident Beamer has been evaluating this.
I was skeptical about this article before clicking on it because there is so little data from this year available (I actually thought: "What's the point of writing these articles until we are 6 games in and have reasonable sample sizes?").
But you did an excellent job wading through the SSS useless data and developing reasonable conclusions based on this and last years data.
Well done.
Glad you found it useful! I too am looking forward to getting through 7 games so there is much more useful information available.
We match up surprisingly well. If the young Hokies can play well under the bright lights, get the running game going, and force a few turnovers; they should be able to keep it close and pull off the upset.
I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!