Hi der!
I see we may get hit with another storm Monday-Wednesday. It looks like the tracks are still up in the air, but they are calling for accumulating snow Monday for us folks in the DC area.
Do you have any additional foresight for this storm yet? Particularly Best (More snow) - Worst (Rain :( ) case scenarios?
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I'll get to that this afternoon sorry I haven't been more a tentative lately. There have been a couple of near misses
Yes, yesterday the mountaintops west and SW of Roanoke were obscured by snow falling but downtown got no snowfall at all.
Quite pretty actually.
I don't wanna be that guy but...
...near hit.
George Carlin is rolling around in his grave
I don't think we have to worry about it, actually...because, you know
Really?! Dang it. I was just starting to get excited about this basketball team.
At least it'll be Valentine's Day. That way some people will be going out with a bang.
Way to be on top of things there ashore...
Its almost like he's a missionary
Heh. Bang on Valentine's Day.
Well, that sucks.
I thought I had 14 Feb licked.
Be careful licking. It's not called V-DAY only because it's valentines!
I don't think my wife will mind.
lol
All we have to do is get over this last Winter hump until we can get to Spring. If you can make it from six to midnight, it's usually a good day.
This would be the better meme
So I dont think this storm warrants its own post like the last one, because well frankly its gonna be tough to live up to that hype again
I'll have a much better look at it tomorrow but for now it looks like a few inches of snow early in the morning switching over to freezing rain and ice. I just dont think its going to stay cold enough deep enough in the troposphere for it to stay as snow. This is all subject to change too of course, as you saw my updates moved around a good bit with that mondo storm we had.
Regardless for much of the Shenandoah Valley region I'd expect probably 3" of snow with about a tenth of an inch of ice on top (if that honestly). Further north up towards DC you're probably looking at less snow and more ice.
Mountains of North Carolina you are also looking at some ice, as is much of that region (if you just cut a straight swath following the Shenandoah Valley up into Pennsylvania). Basically straight through the heart of Maryland into Pennsylvania!
If you guys have any more questions or want some more updates letme know! I'll post something tomorrow after weather watch (Wisconsin has two pretty big name dudes give a briefing every friday, its pretty fun) and I'll keep an eye on it but the primary concern of this storm is definitely ice. Wouldn't look for to much snow
What is coastal region of SC looking at? I trust you more than the weather guys here.
It's looking like mostly rain for you guys wouldn't be surprised if a little sleet got mixed in but it just looks WAAAAAY to warm for anything else.
That being said it could be a good bit of rain. I'd say a mixture of wintry mix early on in the storm when its still cold (course nothing is gonna stick) and regular ole rain as the storm progresses
We have received so much rain already. But even the sight of wintery mix, sleet or ice will have everyone down here in a panic.
I seriously doubt anything will come of it. You guys should be mostly concerned with rain
I think he should freak them out.
Go to the grocery stores and stuff shopping carts full of milk, bread and TP.
Eshib- why would wund show the precip changing from snow to freezing rain at 24degrees?
That probably means there will be layers of warmer air higher up
Bingo so in order to get ice crystal growth you need a really deep layer of saturation coupled with temperature below 32 degrees the entire way. It can be a really fine line sometimes and that's why forecasters struggle on this close call.
So if it trends above 32 it's going to melt in the air. Then fall as rain and freeze on the surface IE freezing rain
If it's below 32 the entire time it'll fall as snow
If it's below 32. Then above. Then below again you'll get like icey sleety gross stuff
Up here in Taiga land, New York, our dew point is -25 tonight, with a low of -12 and a wind chill of -27. I'm pretty sure it's cold enough all the way up. What you also need is moisture. We haven't had much of that lately. More snow in VA the other day than we've seen all season.
well yeah you're in New York, its a -25 chill in Wisconsin too.
Just because its cold now does not mean it will be cold on tuesday. Moisture will be present. Trust me
the issue is that the air is going to be warming up and thats going to make it less snow and more rain. Besides just because its cold in New York does not indicate cold in the Mid Atlantic, this is a very cold snap (really our first of the winter) due to the dreaded "polar vortex" yeah...its a real term...but usually pretty common
Sure enough...43 and rainy here on Tuesday. But nothing in between while VA is getting snow.
Calling the friendly TKP weatherman. What kind of effect are we looking at from these storms coming tomorrow? Schools have closed here in Myrtle Beach area.
I really dont think you guys are going to get it quite as bad as the folks in Louisiana had it today, that being said theres definitely a decent chance for some pretty severe thunderstorms. Its a really strong low/trough bringing this bad boy in, but I think I'd be more concerned about flooding and some strong straight line winds not as much tornadoes.
TL DR thunderstorms yes, rain yes, tornadoes...prolly not, but thats more of a mesoscale thing its hard to forecast exactly when and where a tornado will strike a day or so out
I have some impressive radar captures from today though. (things you say when you're a meteorologist)
So far I've seen 4 tornados in VA. Two killed in Waverly which is near Wakefield NWS office but no warning given. Stay safe people.
definitely still some significant stuff in central virginia as well. It aint over
Fort Belvoir had rain off and on all day but right as I am about to walk out to my car the skys opened and mutilated any thought of getting home at a decent hour. I can now not see said car, which is about twenty feet out the door of my building. We have extreme lighting and thunder going on as well so its safe to say the front end of the heart has come to NOVA now. Power has flickered three or four times (I work in a building built back in the 40s.) The water has now started coming in the building because they did a poor engineering job of designing a parking lot to attach to the building so it essentially becomes a funnel into our main lobby every time we get heavy rain.Hopefully it doesnt get to the point where I have to get up on my desk again because my desk doesnt deserve to be punished like that. Oh and super fun to top it off my computer just told me we are about to go through a two hour special download period today in about five minutes. Got to love the gubmnt IT guys. Hopefully everyone stays safe out there or in there wherever you are.
Here in the Outer Banks I've heard we're looking at wind gusts in the 70-100mph range, strong thunderstorms, tornado possible, but not too likely.
Windy as hell in Baltimore right now!
Tornado rouchdown (unconfirmed) being reported by firefighters on the ground, multiple injuries, in Westmoreland County near Montross.
Went home early today. Let me tell you, it's not very often you hear the warning sirens go off at UofR, but today was one of those days. My yard is a swamp, but we didn't lose power and no property damage that I can discern.
Real tragic news about Waverly.
Tappahannock Virginia sounds like they got hit. Fire/EMS/police in Westmoreland, King and Queen, Essex and other up there have been running their asses off since early evening. Multiple patients in critical condition taken to hospitals.
Well, it's over now, but last night was a wild one here on the Middle Peninsula. Incredible wind, really did sound like hurricane force, limbs down and power out for several hours. Siren blaring, but don't know about injuries locally. Have a gas fired "whole house" generator, so we stayed lit up, but it was definitely scary.
Damn might have undersold and whiffed this a bit...
Torrential rain yesterday late afternoon left everything swamped. No real idea how much rain we got, but it was a serious downpour, probably more than two, two and a half inches in a fairly short time. That's what worried me most when the winds got up later on. We have some really big trees around and with the ground so saturated, I worried something might come down. I had a big limb damage a bit of fence and have talked to some folks that were flooded, but other than the power outages, I think we came out ok here.
Could you explain why the Waverly tornado had no notice.
Snow flurries here in Roanoke.
Why is the rum gone?
Because rum is terrible. I'm on my way.
Oh good. I need reinforcements, I'm almost out of Eagle Rare.