The Geography of Recruiting and Ratings

Below is a comparison of the top States for NFL Players and top rated HS football players.

Recruit ranking data is from SBN's June 28, 2016 article (Kirschner) which compiled the 4 and 5 star players (247 composite) from the last 5 years (I calculated the percent...tough duty); the NFL #'s are from a September 11, 2015 article at Cleveland.com (Exner); the per capita data is from an October 2014 article on Scout.com (Newberg). I determined the "discrepancy" by dividing the Recruiting % by the NFL % and subtracting 1. Positive percents result when the recruit rating fraction exceeds the NFL fraction (overrated) and negatives result when the opposite is true.

In terms of projecting high school stars to making it to the NFL, the most "overrated" states were: Indiana; Arizona; Texas; Tennessee; Mississippi, Louisiana; Georgia; Virginia; Maryland; and Florida. Some of these states produce a lot of top talent, but the ratings pubs also seem to go overboard.

The most underrated states were: New York; Wisconsin; Missouri; South Carolina; New Jersey; Pennsylvania...the latter three were a little surprising (to me anyway) given the amount of NFL talent produced there.

I give attaboys to the folks who do the ratings work in: Ohio; Alabama; California. This is particularly noteworthy because it isn't a function of small sample sizes...these states produce quite a bit of NFL talent. This doesn't mean that the ratings folks are right about each player, rather that they hit and miss equally. Texas and Florida recruiting folks should take notes.

Anyway, wanna find under the radar talent? Look in South Carolina. They are second in density (per capita numbers of citizens making it to the NFL) and the recruiting publications are about 40% less likely to identify top talent. Another really good place to look is New Jersey (11th/almost 23%). In Michigan and New York, the density is lower but the recruiting pubs miss a decent bit of talent there as well.

State (# in the NFL) (rank NFL players per capita) (% of NFL) (% 4 & 5 star recruits) (% discrepancy)

1. California (203) (15) (11.9%) (12.2%) (+2.5%)
2. Florida (193) (6) (11.4%) (14%) (+22.8%)
3. Texas (162) (8) (9.6%) (13.7%) (+42.7%)
4. Georgia (113) (5) (6.7%) (8.6%) (+28.4%)
5. Ohio (81) (10) (4.8%) (4.8%) (0.0 %)
6. Alabama (60) (3) (3.5%) (3.5%) (0.0%)
7. Louisiana (59) (1) (3.5%) (4.5%) (+28.6%)
8. Pennsylvania (55) (26) (3.2%) (2.6%) (-18.8%)
9. New Jersey (52) (11) (3.1%) (2.4%) (-22.6%)
10. Michigan (49) (22) (2.9%) (2.1%) (-28.6%)
11. South Carolina (48) (2) (2.8%) (1.7%) (-39.3%)
12. North Carolina (47) (17) (2.8%) (3.1%) (+10.7%)
13. Virginia (46) (14) (2.7%) (3.4%) (+25.9%)
14. New York (38) (37) (2.2%) (0.4%) (-81.2%)
15. Illinois (36) (36) (2.1%) (2.3%) (+9.5%)
16. Tennessee (33) (16) (1.9%) (2.7%) (+42.1%)
17. Mississippi (29) (4) (1.7%) (2.2%) (+29.4%)
18. Maryland (28) (18) (1.7%) (2.1%) (+23.5%)
19. Missouri (23) (19) (1.4%) (0.7%) (-50.0%)
20. Wisconsin (22) (24) (1.3%) (0.3%) (-76.9%)

States listed in the recruiting top 20 but not in the NFL top 20

Arizona (19) (30) (1.1%...tie 22nd) (1.6%...18th) (+45.5%)
Indiana (13) (39) (0.8%...tie 28th) (1.4%...19th) (+75.0%)
Oklahoma (19) (21) (1.1%...tie 22nd) (1.2%...20th) (+9.1%)