So I was watching the game last night, and I started to realize that Jay Wright basically runs a form of the GSW offense. All 5 positional players can shoot the 3 (which spaces the floor considerably), they have incredible ball movement and vision, and they have players who play above their listed measurables.
It got me thinking, Villanova has now won 2 out of the last 3 national championships playing what some may call "small ball." Now keep in mind I totally realize that they recruit extremely well, the kid Spellman was the #1 recruit coming out of OH, and DiVincenzo was the #2 recruit coming out of DE. I'm sure with some further research, it'll be easy to find that Jay Wright consistently pulls in 90+, 247 rated type players.
However, on TKP after hard losses we typically attribute our demise to a small lineup, but is this the ONE AND ONLY true reason for these heart-wrenching losses? I'm not a big basketball head, but I know with sports in general, it usually is unwise to attribute a teams loss to one specific factor (i.e.: refs, height, turnovers, etc). It usually is a cumulative breakdown of fundamentals that causes a team to suffer a loss.
Look at the comparison in team heights, I was quite astonished that we actually have 3 players that are taller than their top 5 tallest players:
2017-18 NOVA:
Omari Spellman, 6-9.5*
Eric Paschall, 6-9*
Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, 6-9*
Tim Delaney, 6-9*
Dylan Painter, 6-9*
Mikal Bridges, 6-7
Donte DiVincenzo, 6-5
Jermaine Samuels, 6-5
Tom Leibig, 6-4
Jalen Brunson, 6-3
Collin Gillespie, 6-3
Phil Booth, 6-3
Matt Kennedy, 6-2
Peyton Heck, 5-11
Denny Grace, 5-11
2017-18 VT:
Kerry Blackshear Jr, 6' 10"*
Khadim Sy, 6' 10"*
Nick Fullard, 6' 10"*
Chris Clarke, 6' 6"
Ty Outlaw, 6' 6"
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 6' 5"
Justin Bibbs, 6' 5"
Ahmed Hill, 6' 5"
P.J. Horne, 6' 5"
Devin Wilson, 6' 4"
Justin Ammerman, 6' 3"
Justin Robinson, 6' 2"
Tyrie Jackson, 6' 1"
Wabissa Bede, 6' 1"
Now it would be foolish of me to say, "we would've beat Villanova head to head because we had a height advantage," wouldn't it? Sports is rarely binary in that way. I think we would've quickly seen that Villanova has more athleticism, more fundamentally sound players, and just overall more versatile personnel to put on the floor. They had a sophomore bench player last night play the alpha and pull them across the finish line.
I say all of this to say, should we be more patient as a fan base? Should we stop berating Buzz for not recruiting height? I was thinking about it last night while taking out the dog, that I can count on two hands the number of NBA players that are 6'10+ and are dominating in the NBA (Ante, Boobie, KAT, Unibrow, Rudy, Marc, Porz). The game is evolving, it is a guard driven game on the NBA level, it was only a matter of time that the game would evolve as well on the college level. I started to even think about how Buzz also tries to space the floor by having a shooter at all 5 positions. Now I'm not saying we are the next Villanova, please don't mistake me for saying that. I think we are a ways away from recruiting consistent talent at that level. I think we need players who are more athletic (a' la' CC) and more versatile (especially in the post, a' la' Z. LeDay) before we get to the point of pushing for deep runs in the tournament.
Lend me your thoughts peers, what do you think, would Villanova's system work in the ACC? Do you think height really is the end all be all in the current basketball world?
Disclaimer: Before this post runs off the rails about "height, height, height," I'm not bashing anyone who's supported height metrics. I'm simply trying to get everyone to think outside the box, and ask themselves, is Buzz onto something with this "small-ball" approach. As always, thanks for the good discussion gents and gals.
Disclaimer 2: I know this post warrants a "TL;DR" response, but I just wanted to get some thoughts out at the end of the college basketball season. My hope is that it will provide us with some optimism for the upcoming season.
Comments
Villanova won because they are an elite offensive team that plays scrappy defense. They can and will run anyone out of a gym if you give them an inch of breathing room.
The system they run works extremely well because they are absolutely loaded with guys who can score from anywhere. Their 6th man came in and put up 30+ in the National Championship. They won by 20 during a game where they arguably left another 20 on the court with the way their open midrange jumpers were coming up short all night.
Height is not the end all be all. Speed beats size when the talent is there (unless you're a freak who has speed and size like LeBron, Ben Simmons, etc). What we're missing is the sheer volume of elite offensive talent that Nova has. That said, if Outlaw comes back and starts hitting like he was in 2016, and NAW shows that A+ offensive game he's said to have, and Nolley comes in and shows his stuff right away... We might be closer than you think.
I knew Mr. Philly would chime in. I totally agree with you Alum, the only part I feel like we disagree on is the number of elite shooters at all 5 positions on the floor. I don't think we have elite shooters like Villanova has at the 1, 4, or 5. Five can drain a three, and can drive with the best of them, but for the sake of floor spacing, I think we are a ways away from having that depth of scorers/scrappy defenders/rebounding enthusiast.
Villanova won because they are an elite offensive team that plays scrappy defense.
And there it is. VT, under Buzz, has not consistently played what I call "scrappy defense", or any defense at all some nights.
Agreed, when we committed to playing on that side of the ball more, we took off for that stretch of games after ND. We were competitive in every matchup with less talent on the floor. I hope he emphasizes this more in the offseason program and earlier in the year. You can score 90+ points on scrubs all you want, but you need to learn early on how to shut down a team defensively. The Maui Invitational should force him to implement this earlier on I hope.
I hope the defense improves before the Maui Invitational since we aren't playing in that until 2019.
Got me there Yetti...for some reason I thought we were in the upcoming 2018 invitational. Good catch.
For the last month or so of the season, the light went on for Buzz and the team and we started playing much better defensively. I hope he can take that into offseason and we come out playing defense as well as great shooting and transition.
I wouldn't say we've been an elite offensive team either.
Yeah, we certainly have some work to do in that area. Towards the end of the season it was a little too much standing around, and a little too much watching J-Rob, in hopes that he'd save us during a game. We became so tentative to shoot, and that's what I notice about GSW and Villanova's type offense, they aren't tentative because they know they'll get enough defensive stops to shoot a high volume of shots, that'll have a high enough percentage to go in.
Actually, Nova's last 5 classes were ranked 28, 45, 29, 48, 36 by 247.
I was talking more so individual players, I feel like college basketball is hard to go by the class ranking itself. Some years a program will only pull in one or two new recruits, unless you're one of the elite "one and done" schools like UK or Puke.
My mind immediately combined those into pUKe.
Brunson and Bridges were Top 25 recruits I believe. They also play like top 25 recruits.
These teams absolutely are built and play in similar fashions. Nova has loads of talent, and even more depth.
No, though we have 3 players hovering around ~6'10", only one is active and worth playing. Fullard is a walk on and Sy goes all missing person for half a year. So many games when KBJ was in foul trouble, we trot out 6"7" PJ Horne and Chris Clarke and get killed on the boards and around the paint. One more post player worth his uniform would be tremendous for this team, yet we are bringing in more wing players next season.
I don't really bother differentiating between 6'9" through 7'0" for height comparisons, but Spellman and Paschall both still play ~30m a game. Cosby-Roundtree matches Horne's minutes at the end of day. This years Nova squad was one of the most dominant 3 point shooting teams I have ever seen. Their top 4 scorers all shoot north of 40% from 3, and that includes their best post player in Spellman. They make up for so much of what they might sacrifice defensively and on the boards by spacing the floor and absolutely burying their competition from downtown.
My input is that we've got a big man problem with buzzketball, but I absolutely believe this system can work for us.
The Sy situation was so unfortunate for this season. Hopefully now we'll get two years of Sy and KBJ giving us 40 quality minutes at the 5 spot.
Slim margin for error would be my take.
If we can have both of those guys healthy, plus Horne/Clarke to exchange at the 4, Outlaw back on the wing and NAW back his sophmore seaon, all lead by a senior point guard who is capable of being the alpha male at 6' and who has lost 2 years in a row in the NCAA first round. That team next year will be hungry, they have a very high ceiling, just a slim margin for error/injury.
Is this not a slight contradiction to your later point (not throwing shade)
Look at Villanova's starting 5 in the last game of the regular season
P. Booth 6'3"
M. Bridges 6'7"
J. Brunson 6'3"
E. Paschall 6'9"
O. Spellman 6'9.5"
None of those players are your prototypical post player size. They rebound well, because they are fundamentally sound and athletic enough to do so. They have length too which helps for rebounding purposes as well. I don't think it requires a 7' player to rebound well in college basketball. Mr. LeDay would like to have a word with you if you think otherwise. He was a fundamentally sound player who reminded me a lot of a poor man's Draymond Green. Not comparing the two by any means, but they had similar attributes, granted LeDay didn't do them nearly as well as Draymond. Draymond is 6'7" on a good thick sole shoe day, and he was the 2017 defensive player of the year, why? Fundamentals. Not height.
Paschall's not 6'9", he's listed at 6'6" on their sports-ref page. And if you just look at him, he's clearly 2-3" shorter than Spellman. But Paschall is a man, he's built like a truck. You don't need to be 6'9" to defend the rim. Chris Clarke is our Paschall.
I see two post players listed there. One of which is exceptional, but both fit that trend of having and inside/outside game.
All of the NBA is heading this way. Talented big men with an outside game that can stretch the defense when they roll out to the 3 point line. The Hokies have one of these... KBJ. Villanova starts two them.
LeDay might be one of my favorite Hokies of all time, he was a bulldog down low offensively. Opposing defenses did not respect his perimeter game however and his height absolutely was exposed on defense. Issue was, Leday had no backup. Garbage time minutes of Sy, grabbing defensive rebounds and running the pick and roll. Now he has lost a year of playing time and potential development from gametime experience.
If i could expand my original statement to potentially satisfy your points, it's that Buzzketball has a big man problem, because we have limited depth and talent at this spot.
Ok now I fully understand your original statement, and I partly agree. I think Buzzketball has a problem recruiting a 6'7"+ versatile 4 or 5. Buzz is great at getting guards and wing players, but I don't think we'll get to the Villanova level until we are able to stretch the floor at the 4 and 5 spot while also excelling on the defense/rebounding side of the floor at those positions. I don't think we need trees down in the post is my point, I think we need versatility, length, and fundamentally sound players in the post. I would put more of a premium on those aspects, size is just a piece of the equation in my opinion, and I don't think it's as crucial as we make it out to be.
In the era of the Golden State model of winning Villanova's success doesn't surprise me at all.
So long as Buzz has two or three guys on the roster at 6'10" or above who can put in quality minutes at the 5 spot I don't see any reason to call his roster decisions into question.
I cut him some slack in the last 2 years due to injuries and the unexpected.. Losing KBJ to season ending surgery last year and having to rely on LeDay + limited minutes from Sy. Then Sy leaves the program for a while, doesn't have edibility for this season and we have only KBJ + Horne.
However, I think it is very fair to criticize at this point, as this is consistent trend. We are heading into y5 of buzzketball and every season we have had a big man problem. One injury to KBJ/Sy and we are in the same boat next season. Nobody over 6'7" coming into the program, I am growing frustrated here.
I hate to keep going back to the well, but Mr. 6'7" Green would like to have a word with you:
via GIPHY
No doubt. You would agree that, there are not a lot of Draymond Green's to go around though, right?
Nobody we have lined up at current for the next 2 classes is anywhere reminiscent of his playing style/body-type.
There certainly aren't enough of those players going around, but I believe if Jay Wright can find some in that mold, we can as well.
I just don't see a problem. We have tipped past 50% of teams now being perimeter oriented instead of post. This year, 8 of the Sweet 16 teams were smaller than VT, 8 bigger. Who was bigger than VT in the ACC this year? Duke, FSU, Syracuse. UNC, but they went to a 6'7" center after we beat them. In the modern context, VT isn't that small.
We need to continue to recruit size, but it has to be the right size. That's why Buzz was so hesitant to offer Khadim Sy, it was clear he was going to accept for 6 months before we offered but now after seeing Sy, he's a bit of a square peg in our system because he's limited offensively and can't switch on defense. He's a role player for us. He's like #15 for Michigan, Wagner's backup. He came in the game when Wagner was in foul trouble and he could defend well, but offensively, they had to work around him.
KJB is a perfect Buzz post, he really needs to shoot (and make) more 3's for this offense to be better. He can defend the post, he can score in the post, but he can switch on the perimeter, he can draw the opponents 5 out of the lane. We need more KJB's, but we got KJB when he was a 6'8" power forward with a 3-point shot and he grew after he committed to us. That's not a sustainable recruiting practice.
We need Euros. We would love to have Mo Wagner on a Buzz team.
In my estimation, Buzz' teams have struggled not with size but with quickness. We let the ball get to the middle of the paint way too much. Our perimeter defense is our Achilles heel, not our rebounding. We need better defenders. We need to get longer on the perimeter too. We Chris Clarke to defend and rebound like he's Bryant Matthews. We need Rob to defend like he's Jamon Gordon.
This is perfectly in line with my thought process, we need more KJB's than Sy's. I'd even go a step further and say we need more KJB's who can consistently stretch the floor from the outside, and also learn to play with more grit. I think that's KJB's biggest hangup is when a player gets physical with him or comes directly at him, his instinct is to throw all fundamentals out the window and foul. I think back to times when LeDay would get a 4th foul with like 6 or 7 minutes left in the game, and he'd look at Buzz and reassure him, "I'll play smart," and so many times he'd finish the game with 4 fouls because he stuck to fundamentals in the most critical moments.
I would agree our perimeter defense is a huge bugaboo for us, but I think rebounding is an even bigger one. I think Buzz needs to alter his mentality a little bit, and be willing to sacrifice the fast break a little bit, if just to keep one or two players in the post. So many times my wife would yell at the TV screen (former b-ball player) "rebound the ball before running the fastbreak outlet." I'm with her, we gave up too many 2nd chance points as the season wore on, we'd often get down to the last second of the shot clock, and allow another full clock for the team to score. More length, athleticism, and fundamental based basketball will fix this quicker than size. Sy is a perfect example that you can have all the size you want, but if it's not effective on the offensive side, it doesn't mean much in this system. Great post Big.
Lol, missed that one. Guys, no eating Khadim Sy next year, ok?
Are you gonna eat his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti?
I agree but feel like the distinction of quality minutes is extremely important. I'd contend that it's still questionable whether Sy will be able to provide quality minutes and that's why some people are concerned that we won't have a complete roster.
I don't disagree with the basis of your thought here; however, I also don't think the fans who think the addition of a skilled F/C might be necessary to get the team to the next level are wrong either. My contention would be that Spellman and Paschall give Villanova two skilled options at forward, whereas we have only one comparable option (Blackshear). Sure we have some guys listed as 1" taller than their tallest players but that height difference is negligible. More importantly it's misleading to use Fullard as a data point in this discussion as he doesn't play and Sy, who couldn't play this year either, wasn't the same quality as the other guys during his freshman year either. Sy can still develop but it's highly unlikely he'll ever be an inside/outside threat. I think it would make an enormous difference if we had another skilled F/C to compliment Blackshear like a Spellman or Paschall. We struggled mightily in games where Blackshear couldn't stay on the court with foul trouble and at the very least it would give us twice as many fouls to work with before facing a substantial drop off in our lineups. It certainly wouldn't hurt to match up with larger lineups either.
I agree Blackshear inability to stay on the court was soul-crushing at times. I think he couldn't stay on the court though because he's more of a finesse player, he's not well-rounded enough yet to understand that his size and length is an asset that can be used without fouling people.
By no means was I making a 1 for 1 comparison that our 3 tallest guys are taller than their 3, because like you said Sy and Fullard don't get minutes. The point I WAS making though was that their starting lineup plays relatively small, regardless of the size of the competition. Spacing negates size, GS has shown that over the last 3-4 years. Moe Wagner is 6'11" yet the Wildcats finished with a 38-27 edge on the glass for the game. They are fundamentally sound at rebounding as a team, and I think that is yet another factor that negates size advantages.
I'd recommend everyone read this Jeff Borzello piece from ESPN.com:
Inside Villanova's epic five-year run
Maybe it's just me, but I came away from reading it thinking that Buzz's vision for VT is pretty similar to Jay Wright's philosophy for Villanova. Passages like this especially:
I love pieces on culture, and it's a key component, but I'm not sure this is as unique as it may be portrayed. Sure, Duke, MSU, UK, UNC, KU can recruit outside of this model, but everyone else is working this tier.....looking for players who buy into their system and culture who want to play for the school, not just advance their careers. Wright has a great eye for talent, he's got 3-4 pros on a team without great recruiting rankings. But is this message any different than you would expect to hear from Bennett, Buzz, Beilein, Huggins, Mack, Holtman, Painter, Beard, Martin? Even as much as most people hate Boeheim, he's the captain of the culture/system team.
I'm a big Jay Wright fan and I love Villanova's system and culture. Bennett is very similar and what you've seen from both of them, is increased talent in recruiting as their tenures have gone on. Buzz has actually increased our talent quicker than Bennett and Wright did, can he maintain it? Can the fanbase support the team to the next tier? Can we follow through with a preseason top 15 ranking by getting a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA's next year? VT is on the precipice of a big jump, but it's not an easy jump. Next year will be the best basketball team ever at Virginia Tech, how far can we go?
Great article! This is the direction I hope this post led us. Positive vibes for the upcoming season and beyond. I know we're on the right path, and that is exciting.
Villanova has won because Jay Wright is one of the best player development coaches in college basketball.
And Divencenzo was offered by Buzz, so there's that
He's got an eye for talent, that's for sure.
I'm not going to weigh in here because honestly I only casually watch basketball, but I just have to say that this is a great post and some great discussions.
I love TKP. That is all.
Thanks for chiming in Rocket. Like you, I love TKP, and I love when great discussions like this take place, that don't run off the tracks or result in insults/chide remarks hurled back and forth. TKP has become a place where I can vent after frustrating losses, or where I can share thoughts with great minds alike. I'm appreciative when people take the time to read through my lengthy posts, as I try my best to think through them thoroughly before I click "save," in hopes of promoting useful discussion. This post has already been helpful for sure. Thanks to all in the thread too!
You need to recruit the right players for your system and your system must match your players' strengths. If you're going to play small ball, you must be able to stretch the floor with a plethora of shooters. If you're going to pound the paint, you need big physical players who can dominate under the rim.
I have no doubt that Buzz's system can make deep tournament runs with or without height, but I do think we need more reliable shooters and defenders, regardless of their height.
That said, I'm very happy with what Buzz has produced so far, and I'm confident that Buzz will continue to recruit OKG's, hopefully enough of whom have the skill set to take us deep in the tournament.
via GIPHY
Recruiting for your system is key. Stretching the floor is the foundation of small ball, it creates lanes to get around big men, and it forces the trees out of the paint. This provides opportunities for scoring, as well as rebounding. Take for instance when Devin would get the ball above the 3 point line this past season, he was a defensive beast, but teams didn't really respect his ability to consistently hit a jump shot above the arc or even within the arc. So they were able to cheat a little bit an collapse on other personnel. I think our program will take off when we have capable shooters at all 5 positions, we don't need Villanova 40%+ shooters (although it'd be nice), we just need capable 30%+ in the post, and 40 and above at the point and wing positions. I think CC could even use an offseason worth of jump-shots in the gym, he fell away from that as we entered ACC play, which limited the time he would play. KJB needs to continue to develop his jumper too, because towards the end of the year he got ton of open looks and missed them often.
Capable lengthy, athletic shooters who play sound defense and are willing to get in there with the big guys to rebound will always be the mold of a true Buzz OKG. We need more of those, and I'm confident we'll get them.
Yes.
I miss that show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMY70C3ctAU
Some dude uploaded every episode on Youtube. It still makes a great pregame. Please ignore the political part of the whiteboard... I did not create this drinking game and I don't use my stove.
Jeez, given that list, you'd be blackout drunk by the time the second 20 minute episode completed on youtube.
Totally forgot about the world greatest sideline reporter, Guy (pronounced Ghee) LeDouche. Forget about Siragusa and his adult diapers, gotta get this man an Fox NFL Sunday deal.
height is far from the be-all end-all.
we absolutely need another contributor at PF/C though. I don't care if they're 6'7" or 6'11" but they need to be able to get off the floor quick to rebound, have long arms and be able to shoot a jump shot
I think this is much like the discussion on NBA talent.
I know my complaints about the roster makeup have related to the number of quality bigs on the roster. When KBJ leaves the court, it makes everyone's job much harder. I do not think the team is in need of someone bigger the KBJ to play center.
TBH, I presume Buzz would love to have 1-2 other guys similar to KBJ to provide minutes but was unable to sign them. I agree that there is no need to sign a 7 footer just to put a C on the roster.
Hopefully the roster balance improves over time.
In regards to recruiting classes, I'm not even sure how important it is to sign a top 5 or even top 10 class these days considering those are the classes typically littered with one and dones. Aside from Duke in the 2014-15 season and Kentucky in the 2011-12 season, teams composed of a lot of one and done guys haven't won the National Championship. For one, those one and done guys have zero NCAA tournament experience. Secondly, a lot of them are only in college because they have to be (unless their father is Lavar Ball and gets them on a team in Lithuania). Tough to win 6 straight games in the NCAA Tournament with guys who aren't fully invested in the team. If Marvin Bagley had shown any less intensity on defense this season, he might have fallen asleep. I think it's important that we get highly touted players like NAW and Nolley if we want to compete with the big boys regularly, but I'll never get upset if we never land a Bagley or Porter type player. Not that I'd be upset if we did, but it's not the end of the world that we don't.
Pretty sure Brandon Jennings did this too. I don't think Lavar Ball is the reason the Euro team signed LeMelo; the kid was good enough to play. Pretty sure there's a handful of guys who are euro-ball ready out of high school (from a basketball perspective) but not NBA ready. Personally I'd like to see more players go this route.
Lavar wasn't the only reason, but he was a big reason. I agree with you, though, that I would like to see more players go play overseas instead of playing one year in college. It makes rivalries so much better when players are in college multiple years. I'm hoping they get a rule passed where, if a player doesn't go straight to the NBA out of high school, they have to stay in school at least 3 seasons.
What impressed me was Villanova's defensive rebounding and half court O where they didn't hesitate to dribble into the low post on more than just a kamikaze drive to the basket. Brunson in particular would go in and set up shop and then wait for the guys working away from the ball to get open. You can do that when you have a PG with a low post game and the opponent can't afford to double team him.
Their defensive rebounding was INCREDIBLE. They approach rebounding differently than we do, where they would make sure a teammate was under the basket once the opponent's shot was released (fundamentals). This approach still did not affect their ability to run the fast break after a defensive rebound because of their speed on transition (athleticism) and their court vision.
We often work too quickly to execute a fast break, and in turn limit the number of people in a position to high point the ball and secure the rebound. That might be a attribute of our system, but Villanova out-rebounded a bigger team almost 2 to 1 (38-27).
The defensive rebounding is what I noticed too. They just got everything. Rebounding is 90% discipline and effort, 10% talent. The discipline and effort translate directly to defense, too. Do that and we're still not Villanova (yet), but we're a threat to anybody.
I completely agree with the premise that Wright's and Buzz's models are very similar.
I agree it's 90% discipline and effort because it's a byproduct of fundamentals. High pointing the ball, expanding your space with your arms out, eye on the ball, and just a sheer will to out hustle the opposing player. The 10% talent is the athleticism to jump higher and quicker than the other man. I keep going back to LeDay on this one. He had a height disadvantage, a arm length disadvantage, and just an overall disadvantage as a post player, but he was hungry to execute fundamentals, and that's why he was an OKG.
Sure worked better than UVA's.