BUZZKETBALL CENTRAL: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (5-0) AT PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (3-2) 7PM ESPN2 11/27/2018

#GamedayGuide: #ACCB1GChallenge🏀 vs. @PennStateMBB📍 University Park, Pa.🕚 7PM ET📺 ESPN2#getBETTER pic.twitter.com/XCIs10leam— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) November 27, 2018

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: November 27th 7PM
Opponent: Penn State Nittany Lions
Site: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network
Talent: Jon Laaser & Mike Burnop
TV: ESPN2 Mike Corey & Debbie Antonelli
Live Stats: HokieSports.com
Game Notes: Virginia Tech
Sirius: 81 XM: 81 Internet: 81

Before we get into the summary, just a heads up about the Hokies next opponent after Penn State
--- TIME CHANGE ---
Virginia Tech vs. CCSU Saturday, Dec. 1 - 5 p.m. TIME CHANGED TO 5 p.m

First Road Test

Buzzketball heads out for its first true road game at Penn State after beating St Francis 75-37 on Saturday afternoon. This is the ninth game between the Hokies and Penn State. The Hokies hold a 6-2 edge so far in this series. Penn State has won the only two times the teams have faced each other in the ACC/Big10 Challenge.

The Nittany Lions are coached by Pat Chambers, in his eighth year at the helm of Penn State. In 8 years, his teams have made the postseason in two seasons, one CBI quarterfinals and they won the NIT last season when they finished 26-13 season last year.

Chambers is 116-124 at Penn State and 42-28 in two seasons at Boston University, giving him an overall record of 158-152 as a head coach. So far this season the Nittany Lions are 3-2 with wins over North Florida, Jacksonville State, and Wright State with losses to Depaul and Bradley.

Those of you hoping for a Satchel Pierce revenge game, you will be disappointed to know that Pierce was ruled academically ineligible for the Fall Semester so will not be able to resume games until after this semester concludes.

That said, the Nittany Lions will get a shot in the arm with the return of Mike Watkins from mental health issues that has held him out their first five games. Watkins last season averaged 12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG and 1 SPG as the primary post player for Penn State. Watkins gives them the complement to their star player Lamar Stevens.

In terms of the Hokies, there is no shot in the arm coming apparently as Landers Nolley will be forced to miss his sixth straight games for the NCAA ridiculous decisions regarding his ACT score. Also no announcement yet on the return of Chris Clarke, but indicators are he may be back by the Washington game.

#Hokies freshman Landers Nolley still has not been cleared and won't play tomorrow night at Penn State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, per a source. May make his debut Dec. 1 at home against Central Connecticut State.— Mike Barber (@RTD_MikeBarber) November 26, 2018

Defensively, the Nittany Lions prefer to use man to man but depending on the players on the court and as the talent level goes down, Chambers shifts more and more to zone defense which makes his teams struggle with fouls, the reason the Nittany Lions have been primarily in zone this season so far. His team has a heavy focus on adjusting the first shot and putting themselves in the correct position to get the defensive rebound, limiting second chance opportunities for opponents. This strategy is to slow the offense to allow Penn State to force teams into their half-court offense. The Nittany Lions have focused heavily to defend the perimeter so far this season, allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from outside. This seems at odds with their record so far but they focus so much on the perimeter that they are allowing opponents to shoot 53% on the interior at this point.

Offensively, Penn State under Chambers focuses on a 4 Out – 1 In Motion Offense. So far this season, the Nittany Lions are hitting only 33% from the perimeter, relying heavily on interior scoring to get their baskets. The Nittany Lions rely heavily on screening motions, rolling their big to the top of the key to allow for lane penetration or interior passing. They are scoring at a clip of 49% on the inside.

Nittany Lions Backcourt

Freshman Guard Myles Dread (#2), 6'4, 205 lbs, is averaging 11.8 PPG, while also pulling down 3.6 RPG and dishing out 1.8 APG. He is shooting 42% from the field but 36% outside so far and is making 50% of his free throws. He is averaging over 7 attempt per game from outside.

Senior Point Guard Josh Reaves, (#23), 6'4, 210 Lbs is averaging 11.8 PPG, 6 RPG, and 3.4 APG. He has grabbed 2.8 SPG as well as half a block per game. He is hitting 53% from the field while hitting 42% of his three pointers. He is also hitting 87% of his free throws. Reaves is from Fairfax, VA so likely has some pride on the line here.

Rasir Bolton (#13), 6'2, 175 Lbs Freshman Guard is averaging 10.4 PPG, 3 RPG, and 1.8 APG so far. He also has 1.3 SPG. He is shooting 34% inside and 31% outside but is a surprising 80% from the free throw line. Bolton is another Virginian, hailing from Petersburg.

Jamarri Wheeler, (#5), 6'1, 170 Lbs Sophomore Guard, is averaging 3.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 1.8 APG. He is shooting 35% inside and 25% outside and 43% from the free throw line.

Nittany Lions Frontcourt

Lamar Stevens, (#11) 6'8, 226 lbs Junior Forward is the star of the show, averaging 24.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 1.8 APG while shooting 53% from inside, 27% from outside and 82% from the line. He also adds 1.2 SPG on the defensive end.

Mike Watkins, (#24), 6'9, 254 Lbs Senior Forward will be making his season debut against the Hokies after returning from mental health issues. Having Watkins back gives Chambers a lot of flexibility in terms of playing 1 or 2 bigs down low if he thinks it will give them an advantage.

John Harrar, (#21), 6'9, 243 Lbs Sophomore Forward was trying to hold things down while Watkins recovered. He is averaging 4.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and .8 APG. He is shooting 53% from the field and is a miserable 38% from the free throw line.

Trent Buttrick shared the load of keeping things moving with Watkins out. He is averaging 3.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG and 1 BPG. Harrar and Buttrick were splitting about 35 minutes a contest so expect to see these two if Watkins struggles in his return.

What to expect from Penn State?

The Nittany Lions rely on one player for over a third of their average scoring, so any team looking for which player to focus on its going to be Forward Lamar Stevens. This reliance will change somewhat with Watkins return but still expect the majority of the offense to run through Stevens until Watkins shows he is a reliable. This may be the team though that you just allow Stevens to have his game and focus on the parts around him. In the two losses for Penn State, Stevens had 25 and 27 points, but his teammates went cold from the floor and the line, in the Bradley loss hitting just 10 of 39 shots.

Penn State excels on defending the perimeter, holding opponents to the 6th lowest perimeter shooting percentage nationally at 23% on 22 attempts per contest. They are effective in getting up on the shooter, preventing open looks, but this is reliant on their bigs being able to handle penetration from the perimeter, which has been an issue so far, with opponents shooting 53% inside.

All but one of the Nittany Lions top seven are averaging more than 2.4 fouls per contest. Stevens, Harrar and Wheeler are averaging 3 fouls, so Coach Chambers is constantly having to adjust his players on the floor. This has hurt the Nittany Lions in several games, especially in the overtime loss to DePaul, where Harrar fouled out, Bolton and Reaves each had four fouls and the lineup was in flux throughout the game.
The Nittany Lions also struggle with turnovers, giving the ball away on average 13 times a contest. The struggles especially are focused on the starting five, who account for 9.4 of the 13 turnovers per game.

The Nittany Lions seem to struggle with consistency, especially when it comes to shooting the ball. They may have a half where they shoot 60% or better from the field and then turn around and shoot 25% in the next half. This is the first ranked opponent for the Nittany Lions which may factor in heavily in terms of the defensive pressure and just plain ability of the Hokies compared to the other programs they have faced.

The Nittany Lions focus on rebounding on the defensive side of the ball. They are pulling down on average 26 defensive rebounds per contest. Coach Chambers makes positioning off opponents shots a major priority to prevent second chance shots by getting the initial rebound.

They are much more slow and methodical on offense after rebounds, not looking to run and gun. They prefer to work in the half court set where they can work the ball into the interior with Stevens. This will be a telling aspect of how this game goes based on who is able to set the tempo more to their liking.

The Hokies

Blackshear needs to remain out of foul trouble. This is a constant issue, especially with his bad fouls, but this game he faces a dominant big in Lamar Stevens. For those of you that seem tired of hearing this and want to point the fingers elsewhere based on Buzz' assessment of Blackshear's defensive acumen, you are not all wrong. Blackshear many times when he is whistled out near the perimeter IS trying to help out a guard that failed to rotate properly with the shooter.

That said, Blackshear getting the bad foul for covering up one attempted shot is less important than more time for him on the floor. He needs to resist his instinct to step out to cover it. The offensive numbers are clear in this regards. Blackshear in 20.2 minutes per game, is averaging 12.2 points and 4.2 rebounds while shooting over 58%. When he is forced to the bench, Horne averages 3 points and 1.8 rebounds in 16.6 minutes of floor time. The impact on the offensive end for five more minutes of Kerry is roughly 4 points and a rebound directly and likely much larger indirectly as the offense as a whole flows better with him in the post. The defensive end though is even more important. Blackshear just by being in the post adjusts the approach of almost every shot in the lane and gives Tech a better opportunity to get rebounds underneath either by his grabbing them or his tipping the ball back out to the guards, which he has a tendency to do. Last season Tech had nine games decided by 6 points or less, so having the offensive efficiency of Blackshear is incredibly important.

Zion Williamson is going to foul Kerry Blackshear out in warmups.— Josh Parcell (@JoshParcell) November 21, 2018

Second behind Blackshear's importance will be the ability of Robinson and Nickiel Alexander-Walker to create open looks for shooters on the perimeter with their dribble penetration. The Nittany Lions have struggled against teams that can get to the basket and have a tendency to collapse inwards as the game progresses, allowing opponents more open looks on the perimeter.

Another major factor for the Hokies against Penn State is speed and transition execution. The Hokies are averaging over 18 points a contest in transition so far this season. They need to come out in the first half and set the pace for this game at a high level to get Penn State out of their normal rhythm. They cant afford to play like they did in the first half against St Francis or they could find themselves in an early hole.

In Closing

Penn State has the advantage when it comes to size on the floor and effort on the boards, where they will have a four man rotation of 6'8 or bigger, so even with foul trouble down low, the Nittany Lions will still have formidable size. That said, the Hokies have the advantage in speed, athleticism, and the ability to create offense from defense. Pace of play and execution of game plan will be the deciding factors in this game.

The Hokies are catching Penn State is somewhat of a transition year, where they play two freshman guards, who have performed admirably but still not well enough to handle the likes of NAW and Robinson. The X-Factor for the Hokies is likely Ahmed Hill or Ty Outlaw. The X-Factor for Penn State is Mike Watkins and how much he is able to contribute in his first game back. In this regard, I give the edge to the Hokies because if either get hot from outside than this game is certainly leaning in Tech's favor.

Can the Hokies handle their first true road test? Yes they can and will, taking lessons learned from the Purdue game to really close out strong against Penn State, ultimately winning this game 79-65.

The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious. #MondayMotivation #getBETTER pic.twitter.com/Gt8rghdHX0— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) November 26, 2018