Final Four Recruiting

Based on a conversation in the recruiting thread I wanted to see the statistics of the Final Four participates recruiting rankings. All rankings are taken from 247. I put together the four classes that would have played in the final four (assuming the players stayed for 4 years).

Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior Rank (Mean) Rank (Median) Rating (mean) Rating (Median)
Rk Rating Rk Rating Rk Rating Rk Rating
2011 Connecticut 23 0.9365 8 0.9458 7 0.8410 252 0.8590 72.5 15.5 0.8956 0.8978
Butler 60 0.8698 270 0.6125 305 0.5202 68 0.8474 175.8 169.0 0.7125 0.7300
Kentucky 1 0.9662 1 0.9685 1 0.9996 9 0.9570 3.0 1.0 0.9728 0.9674
VCU 57 0.8495 242 0.6723 308 0.5674 65 0.8357 168.0 153.5 0.7312 0.7540
2012 Kentucky 1 0.9972 1 0.9662 1 0.9685 1 0.9996 1.0 1.0 0.9829 0.9829
Kansas 17 0.9321 48 0.9586 7 0.9918 9 0.9351 20.3 13.0 0.9544 0.9469
Ohio State 6 0.9601 3 0.9607 - 0.0000 5 0.9689 4.7 5.0 0.7224 0.9604
Louisville 3 0.9619 63 0.9141 23 0.8535 18 0.8721 26.8 20.5 0.9004 0.8931
2013 Louisville 79 0.9680 3 0.9619 63 0.9141 23 0.8535 42.0 43.0 0.9244 0.9380
Michigan 8 0.9373 29 0.9228 45 0.9104 34 0.7593 29.0 31.5 0.8825 0.9166
Syracuse 43 0.9863 15 0.9735 4 0.9647 265 0.6311 81.8 29.0 0.8889 0.9691
Wichita State 105 0.8840 87 0.8076 231 0.7667 256 0.6681 169.8 168.0 0.7816 0.7872
2014 Connecticut 29 0.9475 33 0.9851 23 0.9365 23 0.9365 27.0 26.0 0.9514 0.9420
Kentucky 1 0.9728 1 0.9935 1 0.9972 1 0.9662 1.0 1.0 0.9824 0.9832
Florida 34 0.9969 18 0.9462 58 0.9270 5 0.9151 28.8 26.0 0.9463 0.9366
Wisconsin 38 0.8731 61 0.9142 43 0.8841 51 0.8857 48.3 47.0 0.8893 0.8849
2015 Duke 1 0.9954 9 0.9910 41 0.9914 2 0.9870 13.3 5.5 0.9912 0.9912
Wisconsin 130 0.8991 38 0.8731 61 0.9142 43 0.8841 68.0 52.0 0.8926 0.8916
Michigan State 40 0.9211 79 0.8758 12 0.9695 19 0.9235 37.5 29.5 0.9225 0.9223
Kentucky 2 0.9942 1 0.9728 1 0.9935 1 0.9972 1.3 1.0 0.9894 0.9939
2016 Villanova 29 0.9345 48 0.9641 36 0.9081 27 0.9459 35.0 32.5 0.9382 0.9402
North Carolina 70 0.9291 10 0.9929 15 0.9712 5 0.9808 25.0 12.5 0.9685 0.9760
Oklahoma 51 0.9099 34 0.9004 81 0.8092 49 0.8782 53.8 50.0 0.8744 0.8893
Syracuse 8 0.9729 38 0.9861 8 0.9475 43 0.9863 24.3 23.0 0.9732 0.9795
2017 North Carolina 14 0.9829 70 0.9291 10 0.9929 15 0.9712 27.3 14.5 0.9690 0.9771
Gonzaga 20 0.9302 112 0.9333 45 0.8812 149 0.8094 81.5 78.5 0.8885 0.9057
Oregon 21 0.9515 19 0.9488 23 0.9213 52 0.8673 28.8 22.0 0.9222 0.9351
South Carolina 65 0.8540 33 0.8748 42 0.8890 24 0.8433 41.0 37.5 0.8653 0.8644
2018 Villanova 28 0.9373 45 0.9503 29 0.9345 48 0.9641 37.5 37.0 0.9466 0.9438
Michigan 43 0.9172 31 0.9049 107 0.9430 30 0.8818 52.8 37.0 0.9117 0.9111
Kansas 9 0.9870 16 0.9731 13 0.9836 9 0.9473 11.8 11.0 0.9728 0.9784
Loyola-Chicago 103 0.8580 126 0.8547 124 0.7987 142 0.8510 123.8 125.0 0.8406 0.8529
2019 Virginia 63 0.8887 98 0.8668 7 0.9745 62 0.9427 57.5 62.5 0.9182 0.9157
Texas Tech 33 0.9042 39 0.8890 145 0.8400 74 0.8626 72.8 56.5 0.8740 0.8758
Michigan State 17 0.9507 49 0.9666 3 0.9900 25 0.9555 23.5 21.0 0.9657 0.9611
Auburn - 0.0000 22 0.9389 12 0.9500 16 0.9208 16.7 16.0 0.7024 0.9299

Averages are Mean unless otherwise noted. Cinderella teams are those mid majors that aren't Gonzaga.

Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior Rank (Mean) Rank (Median) Rating (Mean) Rating (Median)
Rk Rating Rk Rating Rk Rating Rk Rating
National Champion 30 0.9542 35 0.9511 24 0.9402 50 0.9399 35 33 0.9464 0.9457
Runner Up 42 0.9213 64 0.8978 81 0.8855 46 0.8807 58 55 0.8963 0.8917
3rd/4th 35 0.8821 50 0.9138 58 0.8453 59 0.8836 51 54 0.8812 0.8828
All 36 0.9099 50 0.9192 55 0.8791 53 0.8970 49 52 0.9013 0.9034
No cinderellas 30 0.9155 34 0.9420 31 0.9060 43 0.9090 35 33 0.9181 0.9122

VTs recruiting class since 2007-2018 (the time covered in this chart) averages 66th with a median of 46th. With the non-cinderella Mean/Median being 35/32 we have a ways to go, however we only need a four year period.

In 2017 our four year Mean/Median was 38/24 which is good enough to play for a final four. The 2018 foure year Mean/Median is 46/39. Most of the other years are 50th-60th/47. Oddly enough our recruiting class 4 year average is median of 47 for 5 of the 8 seasons covered. We have a pattern of 3 good years and then one terrible year of recruiting.

UVA is the worst recruiting champion followed by Louisville.

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Comments

UVA is an anomaly much as they are on the court. Tony Bennett looks for defense first which isnt as big a factor in how these kids are ranked by the ranking services. He will constantly have guys much lower ranked that deliver the tireless defense that his system requires. That said, once they leave their chances of going pro have likely been the most improved of most schools. UVA now has three in the draft. Two of them I could see going in the first round.

LOLUVa basketball=(more successful) GT football

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Those that are in the draft are from their #7 ranked recruiting class. I wouldn't say that is a huge abnormality.

UVA winning with averaging in the 60s for their class is as abnormal as Kentucky winning with 4 straight #1 classes.

What I took away from this data is that this isn't football, you can win it all with 25th ranked classes. VT has recruited well enough that we could have been in the final four last year, and it wouldn't be a huge stretch for us to have made it this year.

so we should really start becoming a basketball school is what you're saying

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

If your end goal is to win a national championship in a revenue sport, it is easier and cheaper to build a competitive program in basketball than football. Your money will go further there than football.

But your ROI in football dwarfs that of basketball

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Yeah but given the angst about giving and how it doesn't seem to be improving all that greatly basketball would seem to be a thriftier use of what we do have, no?

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

If our goal is to win a National Championship, you are correct. We would be better off pouring money into basketball to build ourselves a power in Blacksburg. Its a more direct path to relevance and you will get more bang for your buck via on field/court success.

If our goal is to make money, its hard to argue with what we're doing now. Though, one does have to wonder if we don't make a step forward back to at least regional relevance in the coming years, if the money we are currently getting in football will begin to stagnate and fall back. A lot of the luster and shine that made us money a decade ago has worn away, and if we don't start seeing results soon, what little fundraising we do have might start to fade away as well.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

This only applies to national champions and not just final 4 rosters, but are a couple of interesting stats related to the topic:

-38 of the last 40 national champs have had a McDonald's All American on their roster, with 30 of those 40 having 2 or more. They only teams to not have one in that time span were 2002 Maryland (which had future NBA players Steve Blake, Chris Wilcox and Juan Dixon) and 2014 UCONN (Shabaz Napier).

-Since 1991 only 3 teams have won the natty with more than 7 losses (1997 Arizona, UCONN in 2011 and 2014).

Even the worst winners had 1 good class. You have to have players, you just don't need stings of top 5 classes.

Thanks for putting this all together. I think this is where basketball differs from football, in that you don't need consistently high recruiting classes as one class is capable enough to make a run at the national championship.

Welcome. I really like this type of stuff and it gives me excuses to built tools to mine the data. I just wish I had more time.

To me this analysis points out that Final Four teams do need some top talented players, but it shows that team chemistry and fit to the system matter more.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

As some one pointed out in another thread, the teams that won a championship had some amazing coaches. Kevin Ollie might have been the worse coach to win one and he did it with Calhouns recruits and an NBA quality guard that put the entire team on his back AND that was a huge abnormality that they won.

Something is not adding up for me, look at 2013, Louisville had the 79th ranked Freshman class with a composite average of 0.968, but Mich was 8th with an avg of 0.9373? Is this a situation where number of recruits weigh in over average, so UL could have only had one recruit in the upper 90s but Mich had 3 that averaged lower?

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

The 2013 class would not be on campus for the 2013 championship, the 79th class is from 2012. Just like the Mike Young is recruiting the 2019 class they didnt play in the 2019 sweet sixteeb.

I mean the Rankings to ratings are not lining up, ie 0.96 rating is ranked 79th and 0.93 is ranked 8th. My guess is that its recruiting services giving credit for total number of recruits.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

Yes the rankings are weighted by number of players as well as rating percentile. Louisville had two in their 2012 class that was 79th. One of those was Motrezl Harrell and the other an unranked center. Rating is only impacted by Harrell but the class is impacted by both.

Michigan had five in their 2012 class that was 8th. Five star Glenn Robinson, two fours and two threes. All were rated, so the overall rating was averaged out across the five.

Another side note, all of the one and done players make some of these rankings meaningless. How many players from the 2012, 2014, and 2015 Kentucky classes were from the number 1 ranked Sr and Junior classes? My guess is not many, most were probably from the Soph class. To get an accurate picture, it would take someone to drill down to the rosters and individual rankings of the players on the team at the time they made the Final 4. Ain't nobody got time for that!

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Come to Blacksburg and see what the Hokie Pokie is really all about

100% agree. It's coming as soon as I can find reliable data I can mine. I have 3-4 data mining projects I am working on and mainly is getting ahold of the data I need easily.

EDIT: I am interested in this because my assumption is that the average class in the 30s is due to 1 and dones. If top players stayed longer then the teams that recruit well would do better assuming recruit rankings are for the most part correct.

With the surprise commitment of Cassius Stanley today Duke now has five commits in the top 42 in the Class of 19 to give them the top recruiting class. Three in the top 13.

Fuck Duke

"Give me a fu瞽king beer", Anonymous Genius