Hurricane Dorian.

So looks like we may have lost our resident weather man. This storm has potential to impact from Florida to NC. Keep an eye on it if you live there. It also might impact some football games.

Forums: 
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Check this website every evening. Levy is the best:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

Interesting...dude cribs NHC images and he's the best.

Dorian is a Tropical Storm (predicted to become a hurricane).

Just kidding. You're not fired, and it's a worthy notice.

looks like we may have lost our resident weather man

i think i know how to find him:

"manchester city ruined the global soccer economy due to overinflating wages and transfer prices, also kevin de bruyne is the most overrated midfielder of his generation and pep guardiola will never win a champions league with manchester city and also fernando llorente's goal was definitely legal and not a handball"

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

#salt

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

it worked! we're saved!

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It also might impact some football games.

Only seems to impact the teams from NC.

Only seems to impact the teams from NC. ECU..... for what its worth

twitter @smithey_daniel
head scout BSP scouting specializing in north florida/ southern GA highschool football scouting

And UNC

Lest we forget....
UNC no match for weather

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I figured someone would beat me to an obligatory ECU mention that will forever-more coincide with any mention of meteorological hurricanes (the ones that are actually bak every year). But I'll gladly drink as if I posted an ecu comment without checking first...

Really just Chapel Hill

And Greenville

Do we have a bat-signal for our weather guy?

Word up I'm here, I'm actually putting some stuff together today. Round 2 of qualifiers is next week and should I bomb it...well I dont have a career anymore. Now for the good news, we have developed a model that I think is damn good and forecasts at insane resolution. I'll be using that in day-of forecasts this season. We typically dont have the model run days in advance for a myriad of reasons (notably it eats up every ounce of our CPU) however typically for hurricanes we overclock everything and let it go seeing as we're still in the "check its progress" stage. We should have some forecasts over the next few days that will be insanely accurate...until then though I'll give you guys some euro updates here

I do believe this bad boy will hit hurricane status before it makes landfall and might be a category 1-2 hurricane however theres still plenty of uncertainty this far out. Florida will also already be saturated due to tons of rainfall in the preceding days (as if its not basically underwater already) leading to intense flooding on the eastern florida coast should it make landfall as expected. If it were to make landfall saturday night. I'd expect it to land south of Orlando and scoot across the Florida peninsula before curving northward. The European track seems to be a pretty reasonable guess and it appears to line up with the NAM and GFS models but again take it with a grain of salt.

Sorry I cant really give a ton of updates as of now life has gotten insanely busy. I'll be sure to update more over the course of the weekend, but this certainly does not have the same degree of danger to it that say Florence did. That being said it is still a hurricane and should not be taken lightly. Weekly weather report coming out later tonight and a gameday update will be part of the morning prior to gameday

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Yea living in Jacksonville but long weekend planned at Disney has us looking at which landfall happens.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

you guys going for the new star wars thing???

good thing about a hurricane threat in florida is it keeps the tourist away. you may not live have lived here long enough to know that they predict EVERY hurricane to be a direct hit to jacksonville and every time it just goes on by while we get out of school and work and throw parties! lol

twitter @smithey_daniel
head scout BSP scouting specializing in north florida/ southern GA highschool football scouting

No just using Monday holiday for longer trip. The issue would be just rides shitting down due to wind and girls not wanting to get soaked walking around the parks.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

The issue would be just rides shitting down

I hate it when they do that.

"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

β€œWhen life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

You hate it. How do you think the park janitors feel?

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

β€œWhen life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

ahh gotcha. ive heard because the star wars thing is opening this weekend its going to be a bit of madness there. but yeah that wouldn't be cool if the rain and wind shut everything down. but as a hokie dad it makes it a little easier to explain to mom and the girls why you need to sit inside at the bar from 4-8 on Saturday and "wait it out"

twitter @smithey_daniel
head scout BSP scouting specializing in north florida/ southern GA highschool football scouting

Yea Hollywood Studios would be a madhouse. So we were sticking to Epcot and Magic Kingdom.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Butt & poop stuff. ALL butt & poop stuff!

Round 2 of qualifiers is next week and should I bomb it...well I dont have a career anymore.

Quals and/or prelims are no fun!!!!!!!!! V stressful and thanks for taking the time to put this together. Make sure you remember to sleep in the next week. So a physical activity like go for a run or play racquetball to relieve stress too

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Shit sucks, Luckily what we knock out the first go - around we dont have to redo and I got the really tough stuff out of the way. Its now a matter of making sure I dont do anything really friggin stupid, had I avoided those mistakes I'd be looking at 1 subject but I'm now looking at 3. Will do thanks for the tip, the wife wants to go kayaking this weekend

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Excuse my ignorance, but what qualifiers are you talking about?

PhD qualifiers. Basically if I score under an 80 on any subject matter exam I fail. If I fail again I'm kicked out of the program. I have a dynamics one a physics one and an atmospheric chemistry section left

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Ahhhhh. Thanks.

Good luck!

Eastern North Carolina University to take an early season trip to Disney.

Go away hurricane.

(add if applicable) /s

Well instead of eating up the entire forum sidebar with hurricane junk I'm just gonna keep posting updates here. After digging around and looking at multiple models they seem to be in nearly total agreement with landfall shifting further south depending on where you're looking (or just not making landfall if you're the GFS...go home GFS you're drunk). I see no indication of anything that would push this thing out to sea (usually you need frontal passage or something but I'm not seeing it).

What does this mean? Pretty good odds Florida is going to be getting hit with a category 1-2 hurricane, I'd expect central and northeast florida to see the brunt of this. For those of you that are new the most dangerous part of the storm is the northeast sector (in the northern hemisphere) this is due to the actual motion of the storm contributing to the rotational wind speed of the storm. Thus if you find yourself on the northeast edge of a hurricane you're probably going to be looking at more flooding, stronger winds, and much more potential for supercell development (severe storms popping up on the edge of the hurricane which in some cases can sprout tornadoes). At this time I cannot confidently say where the bullseye will be but if I had to chuck a "tyrod to danny coale 2 minute drive against nebraska" guess I'd say Orlando is probably going to see among the worst of this saturday evening and into sunday as the storm moves across florida over the 24 hour period. Now the thing to watch is what it does after landfall. I cant trust what the models are saying at all beyond 72 hours out but should this storm move into the gulf it could pickup a bit more steam. Bit early to say anything regarding that but it is worth keeping an eye on. Regardless my early forecast for florida this weekend is rain, and lots of it and probably some flooding and the typical hurricane stuff; But nothing to the cataclysmic events that were Florence and irma.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

So you are saying the hurricane is going to do to Florida what Florida did to the Hurricanes' quarterback last week?

Supposed to fly to Punta Cana Thursday night. Yea or nay?

Depends what you're trying to do?

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

My guess would be that "not crash" is at or near the top of his list.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

As said above, not crash. Just gotta get there, stay the night, and fly back.

Youll be fine, might be a delay but the system isnt hitting till saturday night. So thursday - friday will be A-OK: MY geography apparently sucks sorry, they might reroute your flight but the dominican republic will get completely dodged.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Damn. Was hoping to go home a day early. Oh well, thanks eshiben!

yeah no problem, I assume this is for work? I'm curious what your company does as the storm will be off the coast of florida and there will be other storms in the region. They obviously consider all of this stuff (theres an entire subfield that works on airport forecasting to make sure there aren't disasters and basically they've become REALLY careful with this stuff) but I'm wondering if they might reroute you over say Louisiana and then cut east or something. Keep me posted

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I'm an airline pilot. If you're interested, I'll be happy to come back and post our route this week beside our normal route, assuming it is different.

My first tropical storm/hurricane as a resident of Orlando. Anything I should expect?

You're in Florida? Expect to see lots of this:

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Having never been in florida during a hurricane...no idea about the public but I fully expect people to panic, if you're near the shore lots of flooding and storm surge. Probably possible power outages and just general unpleasantness

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I was in Orlando when Sandy blew through. Expect power outages and unpassable roads

power outages, insane drivers, localized flooding, and lots of partying.

get a small generator, to run the fridge and a window a/c unit, and stay in 'til the traffic lights function again

My daughter lives in San Juan. The resort where she works is putting their staff up for the night in guest rooms free of charge. They have generators and a more fortified structure than most of the local residential homes. The folks down there help one another. Pretty cool.

JP

Word on the street is FSU vs. Boise State might get moved to Friday.

Gobble Till You Wobble

Probably a good idea completely forgot about that game

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

You can do that? I thought your only option was to use it as an excuse to cancel the game and reschedule with another team later in the year.

Someone make sure ECU's football team is in a secure location!

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

They will be in Raleigh, playing NCSt, so probably not.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Someone call NC State's athletic director and prepare him for ECU's decision to cancel.

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

NCSt knows. They ended up with the pity-eff game last season.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

NC State should put a hold on the game check until afterwards

Just a thought: what if we nuke this thing so it doesn't make landfall?

Marshall University student.
Virginia Tech fanatic.

Hmm...let's see...hurricane or nuclear fallout?

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

You want them to use Fuel Air Explosive's (FAE) not a nuke. Takes care of that nasty radioactive fallout issue.

Why not?

(I just needed a reason to post these apocalypse now gifs)

Let's Go

HOKIES

Just what we need... nuclear fall out and radiation spinning at high speed up the east coast

Sounds like an excellent sci-fi film!

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

I'm pretty sure this is a plot point in one of the Sharknado movies.

So do you guys want me to dissect this piece by piece and why it's a terrible idea in the weekly weather report tomorrow? I'll happily do it if it doesnt piss off to many people

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I need to know: should we still go to Orlando Friday afternoon until Monday afternoon. Should I board up the house in Jacksonville before we go? Should we cancel and just stay home but not board up?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I would call the orlando trip. Friday would be fine but getting out sunday probably wouldnt be great. I seriously doubt boarding up in jaxsonville is necessary though. The euro is trending south and most other models are sticking to just south of Orlando outside of the gfs....which you know I have my complaints about

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

In all seriousness, yes. I was watching a snow on the Weather Channel one time called "It Could Happen Tomorrow." They were talking about a devastating tornado passing through Chicago at one point or another. Someone mentioned fighting it with nuclear weapons on the show. So, since fighting hurricanes with nuclear weapons isn't the first time I've heard of this theory, I'm curious as to what the ramifications would be.

Marshall University student.
Virginia Tech fanatic.

That's because the weather channel is full of reactionary and hot takes as well these days. But I will happily dissect all of this after registration this morning (expect a write-up this afternoon).

Spoiler alert theres a TON of ramifications.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Ramifications: radiation is bad.

#thingsiblamethemvsfor

As is dropping an atomic weapon over a major population center...and if they're talking upper atmosphere....yikes

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Why do I have a gut feeling the simpsons have a show about this

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Sounds like the island will be ripe for Lt. Dan style shenanigans!

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

I'm headed to Pensacola in a week and a half, so let's hope this thing doesn't go into the Gulf

"We were at the pinnacle, and we did it for years," Foster says. He pauses, nods, takes a deep breath. "And I did it with the best guy in the business."

I live in the Panhandle, so yeah.

My wife has a direct flight from DCA to Orlando on Tuesday. Where is it tracking after it hits Florida? Up the coast or inland?

Inland, before hooking up into mississippi/Louisiana in the gulf probably as a tropical storm at that point

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Thanks. Sounds like she should be fine then.

you still think it will cross the peninsula?

my daughter's college roomie is coming to stay with her in Jax for a month...she has some kind of program here related to med school.

currently she's visiting her parents/grandparents in Panama City...yeah her folks got a tree thru their house in Michael.

anyway, she needs to decide when to come to Jax...pre-storm or post storm. if Dorian is going to cross the peninsula and get in the gulf, I'd say come on Saturday. If Dorian comes up the peninsula on Sunday, I'd say wait and see who has power (in Jax) before leaving PC

I just checked the spaghetti models and most have it turning north once it makes landfall and going up into Georgia and South Carolina.

"We were at the pinnacle, and we did it for years," Foster says. He pauses, nods, takes a deep breath. "And I did it with the best guy in the business."

Where are you seeing this? Everything I'm seeing still has it crossing the peninsula before arching north

It's probably not picking up steam in the gulf though so there is that

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I saw that exact map. Looks like a turn north to me

"We were at the pinnacle, and we did it for years," Foster says. He pauses, nods, takes a deep breath. "And I did it with the best guy in the business."

Yes, after crossing the Florida peninsula.

I'd avoid that terminology, sure it's making a turn north I completely agree, the arguement and important detail is WHEN it turns north.

That will probably be after it moves across the florida peninsula spelling more trouble for the southern georgia coast than say georgias eastern shore. Point being by saying its "turning north after making landfall" that indicates that its hugging the coast which is absolutely different from saying its turning north after crossing the peninsula

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Oh lordy I may have undersold this...havent been able to check the models for a myriad of reasons but I've been told its strengthened significantly and will probably be a cat 3 or low end 4 by landfall...bit more significant. You'll probably get some severe weather in the jaxsonville area but I dont think itll be awful barring a last second veering north

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

But still call off Disney? It sucks we won't know landfall and reservations all have to be canceled today.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I would absolutely cancel Disney this weekend. Sorry man.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

How about next week Tues/Wed/Thurs? Wife's friend that has been planning this and really freaking out. Like about to cancel everything and book tickets to Disneyland.

I mean Florida is probably gonna be soaked I wouldnt do it early next week. But that's just me. Probably wont be a hurricane at that point but wouldnt be a fun Disney trip fosho

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

If there are power and transportation issues in Orlando, Disney will be closed; the approximately one zillion Disney employees have to get there, too.

Paging Disney Hokie!!

We need a signal device for subject matter experts. JUGS, Disney, HokiesESQ etc

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

i've learned that you can facetiously slander manchester city as a way to alert eshiben

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

NHC 5 pm is slowing it down quite a bit...you could go for a day or 2 and stay until they kick you out...if they kick you out. just make sure you don't get caught up in an evac order. but you could probably noodle your way back thru Deland or something

Saw you at -1 and gave you a leg.

Why do TKP folks keep downvoting Fireman? Grow up. I don't agree with him all the time, but it's ridiculous. The man is trying to get information to make a major family decision,

if I had as many small children as he has, it would be a legit crisis.

I'm gonna assume it's a fat finger and hope for the best in people.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I, too, want to know why certain people are being downvoted.

Asking for a friend.

;^)

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Why do TKP folks keep downvoting Fireman?

"How the ass pocket will be used, I do not know. Alls I know is, the ass pocket will be used."
- The BoD

If this storm does what it is forecasted to, the Parks will be closed on Monday and probably Tuesday. Unfortunately for you, they won't make that call until Sunday. Tomorrow and Saturday should be fine however.

I don't know what a Hokie is, but God is one of them!

How is Tampa looking? Just as bad as Orlando?

I mean itll get walloped but not nearly as hard. The storm is making landfall with orlando just north of it. If you guys have gathered anything from my advice this far being north and particularly northeast of hurricanes = BAD

Itll probably be like a tropical storm. I wouldnt plan to have a picnic but I dont think itll be a death sentence

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

What recommendation would you have about staying in the Daytona area versus the Boca Raton area? Both options are available and this is my first hurricane since moving down here last year.

Not great, Bob

If landfall is halfway between the 2, it would probably be much better to be in Boca than Daytona (look at the wind field around the center); though I can't otherwise think of a good reason to go to either.

Living in one place and having a girlfriend in the other with no relatives around is really limiting my options haha. Thanks for the insight

Not great, Bob

Boca fasho. You wanna be south of it. Keep an eye on it though. If it starts tracking south be ready to change plans. Once it goes on shore its gonna weaken a fair amount

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

That's what I was planning to do and noticing about the path. I just don't want to head south, have the storm shift, and then be a part of the mass exodus heading back north.

Thanks for the help!

Not great, Bob

One model I saw on the Windy website showed landfall MUCH further south than I expected, like West Palm Beach to Ft. Lauderdale south. Thoughts on that possibility?

I mean I'd have to know what model it is, and analyze and frankly I really dont have time for that atm. Usually in the field its considered an outlier and then if its right we go back in hindsight and analyze it further to see what it saw better than anything else and then apply that to our understanding for the future

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Appreciate your taking the time for this response. I had no expectation for anything other than your off the top of your head thoughts. Good luck on your testing.

For those interested, below is a screenshot of the expected landfall location and time frame per windy.com. The forecast model is indicated at lower right (ECMWF). I have no idea what that means or how accurate this is, just adding to the thread's data set for discussion purposes.

That would be the euro. That's an amazing model, good find

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Thanks for the info. I think I recall you liking the Euro best for a lot of things, so good to know I can access that via the Windy website.

Hands down my favorite forecasting model for days in advance

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Windy.com is such a great site. I think I've spent my entire work week on it

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

Haha, same here. We were talking about how the wind direction arrow symbols have a hypnotic effect almost.

Windy is great. I use it for weather forecasts when I've got an upcoming flight as it's crazy accurate.

More fun ways to do this than just a screenshot!

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Do not like this model at all.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Pls don't turn north towards NC, already had to deal with Florence last year. I just want it turn back to the ocean.

"Oi! What's a Horkie"
"I am ya Grot!"

"Horkies were made for two fings foighten' and winnen'" - Horkie Warboss

"That Gritty git doesn't exactly look like a Horkie, but by Gork and Mork it acts like one!"-Random Horkie Boy

Guys Eshiben5 is doing his best, esp. between his studies, but frequently forecasts past 72 hours will always be hazy. Dorian has been relatively unpredictable already. Regardless of where it hits there will be impacts widespread throughout Florida, and then the southeast depending on which way Dorian goes after that. If you can leave it would behoove you to, since this thing could experience significant strengthening before landfall.

I've had to respond to gulf hurricanes the past few years so anything you can do to evacuate and or prepare is definitely worth your time. Everyone be safe πŸ™

VB born, class of '14

This times a million I am by no way saying that you will 100% be safe in boca or whatever I'm just saying given what I'm seeing that's probably your better option at this point. As much as I wish I could I cannot control mother nature and in spite of what's going on 9 years studying this there are still definitely things I miss.

My real answer to anyone in this area is to take a vaycay for a week till this thing blows over but naturally that isnt always an option. Be safe Hokies hurricanes are never something to joke about

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Unless said joke is at UNCs expense

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

But I want my precise forecast a week in advance, and I want it now!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Getting our first spinoff shower (St Augustine) right now. Should be a good week for the aquifer...and not much else.

Common local topic..."Is it too soon to eat the hurricane snacks?"

Not quite: the rain you'll be seeing today is from a seperate system, the storm has actually slowed down a bit

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

indeed it is!

I posted this in another thread but this is what the end of a rainbow looks like...taken after another shower moved by

it was between us and the cedar in the foreground when my wife spotted it

Bullseye has moved a bit north and appears to be turning quicker. Again lots of uncertainty still stay posted and pay close attention floridians

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

My biggest fear is landfall then a sudden stop and ride up the coast to us here in Jax.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Well so the good news there is itll lose some of its strength as it moves up the coast and disorganizes. I mean I'm not saying you guys wont get hit, but I dont think itll be that bad. Still absolutely take precautions and prepare yourself for the worst.

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

yeah, that's our worst scenario for this storm...the Matthew track. the best scenario is two more clicks to the right and having it stay further out at sea

this is going to be a roller coaster for at least a couple more days as the steering factors settle out

Best stay out to sea, next cross over to gulf, then up central FL before it gets to us. But each of those could have bad impacts for other areas so....

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

The Euro is showing it do just this. It does weaken a bit, but it certainly seems to stay close enough to the coast to draw strength/moisture off the ocean and dump some rain in the coastal areas. I am concerned about my mom in Palm Coast...

y'all going to Orlando? might not be nearly as crowded as it would be otherwise.

our 80's configuration is playing 9-midnight Sat nite at Ocean Ave in St Aug if you stay here and want to ditch the kids

euro model now has it grinding up the coastline

Euro now has it offshore and paralleling the coastline. GFS has it coming in at Palm Bay, running up the St Johns basin; the Ga, SC, and NC coasts; and then back out at Cape Lookout.

Cheering for the Euro at this point

A PSA

VT '10, Born & Raised in the 804.
Rockin the Bakken.
β€œRight turn, Clyde.”

Lol fuck the new euro update.

(add if applicable) /s

Why? I'm curious and ignorant.

New track rides the east coast similar to Matthew. Its gonna have a pretty good impact on the SC coast on that track.

(add if applicable) /s

I love that we are quite possibly the most weather literate fan group in the country. Yall checkin models and talking in weather terms...

But in all seriousness not a fun update at all. Good news is if the current outlook holds nobody is getting the northeast quadrant

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

The bad news with all of this now that I've gotten to look into a bit more...expect significant storm surge. Winds will be pulling this shit into the coast the entire time it climbs the coast. Expect high tides and lots of problems along the coast

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Something to note here the coast is in king/flood tide right now that generally newbs the water is already high. This could be catastrophic depending on timing

(add if applicable) /s

Really wish I had hyped this up more guys, I'm sorry I fudged up

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Now the kids are going to not understand why we had to cancel Disney. Trying to explain precaution to a 4 year old doesn't work well. Glad to see most of the impact won't be severe in most of FL. But it's time for GA and SC to prepare.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Florida isnt getting off that easy. Still not going to be good and coastal areas are about to get hit hard with some serious storm surge. What would be amazing is if it slowed down a bit more, it might get pushed out to sea

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I'm looking for the experimental inundation map NHC has done the last few years and not finding it

Google NOAA instead of NHC. Can't remember of the top of my head, but think it was the mothership. If not, check union of concerned scientists.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

get a sitter and come hear the band after the game...9-midnight...Billy Idol, Van Halen, Def Leppard, Motley Crue, Bon Jovi, Pat Benatar, Journey, etc. We have excellent lead guitar and vocals

and they just canceled due to the storm that isn't coming here

Wow, you play with ALL of them?!?!?

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

yup...in my dreams

Authorized Mrs Dave to break into the hurricane snacks

Dorian up to a category 5 with models shifting a slight amount westward back towards the mainland. The Bahamas are going to get destroyed.

VB born, class of '14

Paging Eshiben5:

Any thoughts on Charleston? Waiting to se if they evacuate the base, but I'm scheduled to be in Atlanta with family this week (in Birmingham now). Trying to determine whether to drive back to Charleston on Monday to board up the house and drive straight back to Atlanta on Tuesday (or late Monday night to avoid traffic)

Toughie, i think itll lose some of its mustard at that point and be anywhere from a 1-low end cat 3. Not entirely sure how well equipped charleston is having never been there. Certainly couldn't hurt and I'd say you're probably looking at a 5+" of rain and some storm surge. Not nearly as bad as say orlando though. This thing is gonna be rough

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Charleston gets a spring shower and it floods.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Then yes expect mucho flooding

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

I'm guessing you're thinking a similar outlook for Savannah?

VT '17

Probably a little worse. The further south you go the better likelihood you have of the storm still being strong. Its gonna lose steam as it moves up the coast the question is how long does it take to go and how quickly does it disorganize, but yeah probably a pretty similar outlook

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Due to the uncertainty of the track and strong potential storm surge the county and others around here are taking full precautions. Schools are closed and mandatory coastal evacuations are taking place.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Probably for the best, better to be safe than sorry. My bad on not jumping on this sooner, I really didnt think itd blow up as bad as it did

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

have you seen any super secret model runs suggesting anything other than what's being reported?

I'm looking at the ecmwf and gfs simulations on windy.com and the surge projections on cera.coastalrisk.live

They're pretty much all in agreement, how far offshore is really the only question which could be a huge deal as theres a very fine line between getting soaked in rainfall and getting next to nothing. I'm waiting on our short range model, seeing how well we do on our forecast

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

i focus much more on wind...and 30 miles this way or that can also be a huge deal.

north and central Florida is a sand dune on top of a huge pile of porous limestone...not like the impervious clay of Louisiana and Texas...we flood, but not like some other areas.

on the flip side, it is very forested.

edit: and hey, if the short range model runs counter to the mainstream...

I'm an ecologist, I understand what models outputs are worth, and I'd still rather know what they say than not know.

Obviously storm surge is the big concern, I will deliver the info when it gets closer. Frankly I'm not even supposed to be sharing it

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Understand and much appreciated

No problem, were only a 9 hour forecast model even running at super speeds were just running it more frequently. I think we have a ....I dont wanna call it landfall but a point where I'm positive its turning north and I don't think theres a ton of uncertainty at this point.

The only thing were currently looking at is if it gets stuck and spins at some point (which is what our model is indicating) which will increase the odds that 1) itll hit orlando even harder and 2) theres at least a reasonable chance it stays further out to sea.

Every mile counts for point 2 and the further out it is the less damage it will obviously do. I'm not banking on that at this point and I wish everyone in its path luck. I probably wont be to responsive at this point with quals this week, so this might be my last update and dont expect a weekly weather report till friday evening this week. Sorry folks

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

thanks for taking time out to try to give us the benefit of your expertise.

fwiw, I'm in St Augustine and Fireman is about 20 miles north and a little further inland. Not sure exactly what part of the development he's in but most of it drains west to the St Johns. I'm 3 miles upstream from the inlet at St Augustine

I live essentially on the west bank of the ICW and could hear the ocean a few minutes ago not quite 3 miles away...nice northeast breeze.

Where can I get a good wind prediction? We are outside flood areas and the planned community we live in had its drainage designed by Disney engineers. So flooding isn't an issue but wind could be.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Windy.com simulates the most recent gfs and ecmwf model runs

https://www.windy.com/?29.915,-81.367,5

you can plug in date and time at the bottom and even click on a given location for what the model predicts at that time

click on "more layers" and then click on the map. it will give you a dot you can drag around and put on your house and it will give wind speed and direction based on whatever model you have running on the screen

Disney engineers

I got a little tickled imagining Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck in costume throwing down a set of drawings.

The concern of things staying the same is only exceeded by the fear of change

I don't know how good they are at surface drainage but they've done some cool underground hydrological restoration work.

We're in B. Will make the call on Tue. based on projected winds/surge. Our biggest issue, literally and figuratively, is the large tree on our NE corner

Since we have never put the shutters on this house we did the three hardest windows to get to as practice and to get them out of the way just in case.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

good move!

My labor day went weird. In evac he in SC my day of boating with the family turned into drunkenly getting sand bags and plywood ready. Eschiben would appreciate some guesses on what's the likely damage (wind or water) in the southern SC/ Savannah area. Trying to help my parents get their house ready.

(add if applicable) /s

Took the safe road. Boarded up my parents house, furniture is all on blocks (they're at 6ft elevation and the king tides generally push the water to within 15ft of the door already) took the important things and hauled my boat back to Columbia....now just have to clean my house before my mother gets here.

(add if applicable) /s

Every update getting a little worse for the SC coast. Idk what models are still keeping the cone east but the euro and gfs are both currently in agreement this rides north more and stays further west to a near landfall in Charleston before turning northeast.

Looking at the harbor webcams I'm afraid of how many nice boats were left in the water in HHI.

(add if applicable) /s

In keeping with my on thread of talking to myself. I'd hate to be someone recommending what to do during these storms this just didn't take a west path at any point today like predicted. Should spare everything in GA and mid to southern SC from flooding. Charleston and up is still gonna feel a bit on this path.

(add if applicable) /s

5pm updated forecast still holding steady for our area

Boat/kayaks/outside furniture secure, and pork for pulling is in the instant pot.

I'd love to hear your recipe for the instapot pork. If it's not a closely held family secret.

Good luck the next few days. Hope you weather the storm in good condition.

experimental first effort. certainly okay, but not ready for prime time

Where are you located?

St Augustine

Colorado State has a tremendous webpage for looking at up-to-date satellite imagery here: RAMMB Slider

Instead of Full Disk here, you can select one of the 2 Mesoscale images (1000km x 1000km box of importance, selected by the Senior Duty Meteorologist). For Dorian, Meso-1 is the one to choose.

You can select # images, time length, etc; and can create and export loops too.

RAMMB Slider

wish there were better resolution and more timely storm surge projections available.

The NOAA experimental product (which has awful resolution...you have to put a magnifying glass over the computer screen) gives a range of feet above ground and if you don't know how high your house is (I do...I have a survey spike in a live oak tree...but most people aren't nerds like me) or how high the ground is...and what ground are they talking about anyway? And definitely not helpful if the topographical data in your area is poor...like ours where the storm surge map is based on one set of elevation data and the floodplain map is based on another...it really is.

The CERA product seems more useful in that it gives zones and deals in MSL as its currency, but they don't run it for each forecast...wasn't updated last night and hasn't been run today at all.

The vast majority of the damage in NEFL from both Matthew and Irma was surge-related overbank flooding...like 99%. That's what impacts access the most, that's what takes out sewer systems and water supplies, and that's what kills the most people. Yes, wind is a really big deal and photos showing the effects of eyewall wind speeds are spectacular, but I would think we could do better on the water part. Ugh...

Edit: to belabor the point; this from current advisory 40A...

The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft.

If I'm at 10' NGVD and high tide is about 5', what does 4-7 feet above ground mean? How about "tides will be increased by x-y feet"

Edit 2: CERA was just updated...for advisory 39...last night at 11pm

Edit 3: ...and they just put the 4-7 foot warning in effect.

My uneducated interpretation of that is they are saying a surge of 14' -17' is possible meaning 4-7' above your 10' NGVD because isn't NGVD the new term for long term mean high tide.

logical, but probably not correct.

per a news broadcast last night, they apparently equate "ground level" with mean sea level. which means that a 5 foot "surge" may not be a surge if the normal high tide is 5 feet.

communication on storm surge is worse than awful

I've always had a hard time understanding it. I know that the last storm to bring a surge to HHI was a "4ft surge" at low. If that means its the same 4ft + the 7.1ft of high tide we're going to be in trouble.

(add if applicable) /s

Thats umm... not the logo they think it is...

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Mandatory evacuation orders issued for Outer Banks, visitors affective noon today, residents 6:00am tomorrow

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Man it looks like the outer banks are going to get royally screwed. Prayers for those folks, their property, and my preferred vacation stomping grounds...

all good in our part of St Augustine so far. Power on, very little debris, no flooding in our neighborhood

The Windy.com model is spot on for what we are seeing. Will give a review of the CERA inundation model after high tide at 1pm.

The parade has already begun. Our street parallels the water for a couple miles so people drive back and forth and back and forth and back and forth... Curfew prevented it from being all night long; county got that one right.

Truth is, if I didn't live here I'd probably do it too; but it is a bit of a pain especially when conditions are worse like after Matthew and Irma and you are trying to stage debris (for later removal) on the ROW across the street.

If there is any silver lining to what happened in the Bahamas, Nassau was avoided. Given that their economy is primarily driven by tourism, being able to get their major resorts back up and running (along with the fees and taxes they charge to all visitors) their economic driver should still be stable going forward, which should help keep the revenue streams so the government can help fund rebuilding efforts, which hasn't always been the case when islands get devastated like that.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

The damn cruise ships never even stopped. My wife has a friend whose daughter left from Fort Lauderdale on a cruise ship bound to the Bahamas on Saturday afternoon!

Seeing very little wind and rain here just West of Ponte Vedra. Did just have a very short lived Tornado warning about 11:30z

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Riding out the storm

5 feet MSL with 45 minutes to go. CERA forecast is 5.5 -6.0 MSL. NWS 11 am update says 3-5' storm surge ("above ground") warning

edit: scratch that, 312 bridge tide says 1:46pm, so we'll give it 'til then.

Want to induce pure fear and panic into kids have the power go out while they are getting their screen time in. Luckily for me trying to finish my school work it came back about 30 seconds later.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

hurricane update from jacksonville!

in all seriousness. it cancelled my flight from boston Monday night. but I was able to fly back in Tuesday. any lingering effects in Blacksburg this weekend? it has cancelled all highschool football games for Friday night so I'm loading up the van with a group of recruits for the ODU game. trying to see what driving conditions and game conditions will be.

twitter @smithey_daniel
head scout BSP scouting specializing in north florida/ southern GA highschool football scouting

I'm flying up late Friday night for the game.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Woo! You coming by Lot 18?

Hope to, this will be a weird trip. Flying in after 11pm car rental places are closed, will have to get up and get rental car Saturday morning and drive down. No parking pass and have to fly out at 7:45 after the game.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Just park at the golf course and walk over. Should be a decent crowd of us there by 9.

I think this is all it's going to do...so between 5-5.5...and less than a foot above the non-storm high tide. The edge of the road pavement on the far left is 6'.

This CERA layer was remarkably accurate. I think saying there is a "3-5 foot storm surge" is quite confusing.

And we've had probably 50 pickup trucks go by in the last 10 minutes.

Updated path here...

Looks like Dorian is stopping through for some good Eastern NC BBQ, before checking out the Oysters of the VA Eastern Shore, before heading out to sea, opting to skip the terrible drivers and Old Bay of Maryland.

Man a hurricane in canada later this week

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

Hope it zips through the OBX. We are supposed to be going to Nags Head the week of Sept. 14 - 21 for our first family vacation in over two-years. Would be a real bummer if we had to cancel because the house was damaged/inaccessible.

That being said, my first world problems are nothing compared to what the folks in the Bahamas are dealing with. The photos are just unreal. So sad.

Where's the beef?

Good luck. I hope you get to go. I agree it would suck to miss it. I saw close to 90 mph gusts in hatteras just now so I don't know.

Just got word from the rental management company that we are good to go!

Where's the beef?

Looks like it's picking up speed.

The Frying Pan Ocean Tower Cam is pretty cool, currently showing the force of the winds at about 40 miles south, south west of the eye wall.

My sister evacuated Morehead City yesterday a.m. Looks like the hurricane went right through there.

edit: eyewall reportedly passed 7 miles offshore

ECU this weekend...

I mean, I'm glad the storm wasn't more serious for eastern NC, but should someone like...tell them?

Whatever it was supposed to be isn't showing up, which makes it the perfect example of ECU.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

You gotta be friggin kidding me...
That's just so..... Nevermind.
I hope we never play these mental decayed douches ever again.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

Has it even been a year?

I wish our athletic department would troll this with just one word - Florence.

The responses on twitter are almost entirely bashing this BS. Some great responses.

Pain is Temporary, Chicks Dig Scars
Glory is Forever, Let's Go Hokies!!

Most of the northern Outer Banks ended up alright. Yard cleanup at my house. A lot of siding and shingles ripped off, a few trees down on houses. Ocracoke and Hatteras got fucked unfortunately.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

In Chesapeake, we didn't get much of anything, but I found this photo of the Pamlico Sound pretty interesting.

It's normally 5-6' deep for reference

All the water getting pushed down to Ocracoke and Hatteras by the wind as the storm passed by. You don't want to be walking out there when the water comes back.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Yeah, a friend of mine posted this. Every comment was "I don't think that is such a good idea..."

People die up in the Bay of Fundy from doing things like that. Tide goes way out then comes back in a hurry.

Like Tampa Bay after Irma...