Blue chip ratio 2019

Bud Elliott updated his blue chip rankings for 2019. For those who don't know, blue chip ratio is the ratio of 4 & 5 star recruits to 2 & 3 star recruits. There has never been a team who has won a national title in the modern era without a blue chip ratio >50%.

No source to share (article was emailed via banner society/SBNation's free email list). Rather than quoting the entire email (I'm happy to do that if the mods prefer), I'll share the highlights:

Entering 2019, 16 teams are above the 50% Blue-Chip Ratio:

  • Ohio State 81%
  • Alabama 80%
  • Georgia 79%
  • LSU 64%
  • Florida State 61%
  • Clemson 60%
  • USC 60%
  • Penn State 60%
  • Michigan 60%
  • Texas 60%
  • Oklahoma 60%
  • Auburn 58%
  • Washington 54%
  • Notre Dame 54%
  • Florida 53%
  • Miami 51%

As far as new entrants go...

Washington, Florida, and Miami are new to the Blue-Chip Ratio club this year. And each team arrived in a slightly different way.

  • Chris Petersen has slowly built Washington from a 22% BCR in 2014 to 23, 26, 30, 40, and finally 54 this year.
  • Florida was last a member of the club in 2014, dropped out for four seasons, and is back thanks to a strong 2019 class.
  • Miami's 2019 class was not great by any measure, but having the destitute 2015 class drop off is enough to boost the Hurricanes' four-year average over the mark.

Break down by conference...

The SEC has the most BCR teams (five), followed by the ACC and Big Ten (three each), Big 12 (two), and Pac-12 (two). Notre Dame also made it. Due to the number of teams meeting the threshold this year, this looks much more balanced between the conferences than previous seasons.

Still, 16 teams is a lot. The average number of BCR teams in the previous five seasons was 12.

Who is sitting on the bubble...

[There is a] lack of teams in the 38-48 range, a mark that usually suggests a team might be just one class away from making the jump. Texas A&M, Stanford, Tennessee, and Oregon are the only 4 in that range right now.

Biggest risers and fallers...

The pool of teams examined here are those who had at least a 20 percent BCR in the previous year...

  • Up: Washington (14%), Florida (11%), Georgia (10%), Oklahoma (7%), Penn State (7%)

Petersen's Huskies are this year's best example of how winning games can turn into better recruits.

  • Down: UCLA (-13%), USC (-11%), Florida State (-6%)

One comment that really stuck out to me, as I think it was pretty eloquent...

Some teams simply do not have a shot of signing elite prospects and must instead find diamonds in the rough. That's a strategy that can produce wins and conference titles, though perhaps not Playoff rings.

Coaching and development are extremely important. But by NCAA rule, coaches get just 20 hours per week with their players. Only so much development is possible. Talent acquisition is by far the most important element, especially when trying to compete for the biggest prize.

What this means for VT...
By my back-of-the-napkin calculation, VT has 19 four star players on the team right now, which is a roughly 22% blue chip ratio. One caveat - Bud's calculation is (slightly) more complex; he doesn't include transfers or walk-ons, so rather than dividing 19 by 85 players, it may be a smaller number (thus a higher blue chip ratio).

If you're looking for something (sort of?) positive, I'll refer you back to these comment above:

Petersen's Huskies are this year's best example of how winning games can turn into better recruits.

Chris Petersen has slowly built Washington from a 22% BCR in 2014 to 23, 26, 30, 40, and finally 54 this year.

Winning can help improve recruiting, HOWEVER we must note that as UW started winning, their revenue increased too (source):

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