Buzzketball's march madness resume

I started taking a look at projecting what our resume come tournament time could look like, and I was shocked to notice a couple of things:

As of 2/5/19, Buzzketball doesn't have a truly "bad" loss - PSU's win at Northwestern last night bumped it up from NET #85 to #74. As it was a road game, that now puts it as a Quadrant I loss.

We're currently 3-4 in Quadrant I - wins vs Purdue, vs Washington, and @NC state that shouldn't be at risk of falling down to Quadrant II. Our only losses (@UVA, @Duke, @PSU, Louisville) are all Quadrant I losses, and with the exception of @PSU, look to solidly stay there. For sake of completeness, here's our current record split by quadrant:

Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 8-0

Remaining schedule has 4 more Q1 games (UVA, Duke, @FSU, @Clemson) with the closest one to the Q1/Q2 line being Clemson at NET #51. So assuming Clemson doesn't drop 20+ spots, these should all be Q1 games.

Other remaining games are @Pitt, @ND (both Q2) and home against GT, Miami (both Q3). Interesting note is that Pitt is NET #80 and ND is NET #87. With a couple of wins, there's potential for either of these teams to move up enough to make our games count in Q1.

TL;DR: If you're looking for VT to maximize the NET rankings/quadrant records, here are a few reasonable things to hope for:

  • PSU wins a few more games to stay above NET #75 - keeps our record clear of "bad losses"
  • Steal wins on the road @FSU and @Clemson
  • Hold serve at home against GT, Miami (we've beaten both on the road already)
  • Beat Pitt and ND on the road where we should be slightly favored, and hope they upset a team or two to move above NET#75
  • UVA's team bus takes the same route as the equipment truck in 2016 and gets stuck on Rt 624
  • Pray that Blackshear doesn't foul out in warm-ups being on the same court as Zion and Duke
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Couple of interesting pages I used to help with this:

Current NET rankings, usually updated daily.

I found a PDF of every Team Sheet HERE. They're sorted by descending NET ranking, and look to also be updated daily.
If you're unfamiliar with team sheets, this is supposedly the info the committee members are given; they have breakdowns of wins/losses by Quadrant, as well as other non-NET rankings (KPI, SoR, BPI, KenPom, Sagarin).

It's nice to have a team where we haven't lost any bad games yet, even though we really hate the losses we do have. I'm used to basketball being a struggle not to be in the bottom third of the conference. Sometimes we'd knock off a better team, but more often than not, we'd be in a drunken slap-fest with the teams hoping their SoS would get them into the NIT.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Penn State is a bad loss for perspective, but resume wise it isn't the worst. They've been on the wrong side of a lot of winnable games. They metric out pretty well.

Unless we go belly up without Robinson, we should be somewhere in the 4-7 range

Always choose joy.

Even without Robinson, I think this team as-is has the ability to stay around the 4-5 seed line. I do expect us to drop a game we should easily win, but our 6.5 man rotation should be able to beat GT and Miami at home, as well as beat Pitt and ND on the road.

Everything else is a Q1 loss at worst, and I think we beat Clemson this weekend after 4 days rest with the same effort we gave against Louisville. Duke and UVA are who they are, and @FSU is a month away.

I think the floor is 4-4 and the ceiling is 6-2 (maybe 7-1 with some LOLUVA voodoo magic), with 5-3 as a reasonable expectation somewhere in the middle.

the floor is the floor and the ceiling is the roof. Seriously though I think the floor without JRob is more like 2-6. Finishing 4-4 without JRob would be great, 5-3 amazing, 6-2 shocking, and 7-1 damn near impossible.

"It's time to go play Virginia Tech Football longer and harder than anybody else in America!!" -- Justin Fuente
"I put a brick in Sacksburg today." -- Cam Phillips

I will be extremely surprised and disappointed if we lose to either (all rankings from KenPom) #80 GT or #92 Miami at home, or lose to both #74 Pitt and #84 ND on the road (a split would be disappointing but not entirely unexpected), so 3-5 is the absolute floor in my mind, and that assumes that we get swept by all of our Quadrant-1 opponents the rest of the way, which I feel is somewhat unlikely. I feel like 5-3 should be the expectation for this team, and anywhere from 4-4 to 6-2 being a reasonably likely outcome.

Let's just say, if we go 2-6 the rest of the way to finish 9-9, our program has a lot of problems that were masked by JRob, and we should be extremely concerned about next season.

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Go Hokies!

Update: Not a great week going 0-2, but at least both games count in Quadrant I. There's probably at least 2 or 3 threads talking about our tailspin without 5 in the lineup, so I won't comment any more on that. I will say that it's obviously opportunity wasted for two very winnable games that would've not only been a resume-booster (my opinion is that VT is something like #11 overall to the committee on Saturday with the Louisville win), but also would've taken a huge step towards the double-bye for the ACC tourney. Despite the final scores, VT wasn't that far away from pulling out both and being 3rd in conference at 9-2 right now, instead of 7-4.

The main reason I'm updating this is the fact that the NCAA tournament committee released their top 16 teams on Saturday (before the Clemson game), which did not include the Hokies. Can't remember where I read it, but I saw that the committee mentioned VT was in the discussion - so I'd extrapolate that to having us as a mid 5-seed as of Saturday morning. Losing at Clemson probably moves us down a line, so I'd say we're a mid-to-high 6-seed as of right now.

The theme for this week going forward is likely damage control. GT at home is a Q3 game and a must-win; reminder that we beat them on the road by only 3 in early January. @Pitt isn't exactly a must-win from a resume perspective as a Q2 game (weird things happen on the road, especially in the ACC), but losing to a .500 overall team with only 2 ACC wins will hurt more than both losses this past week.

Hopefully taking a look at the correlation between the committee rankings and the NET rankings later this week, since it's a new metric and I'd like to see if there's any obvious takeaways on how the committee values it.

Without 5, there aren't many winnable games left when you look at who and where we play.

We must beat GT and we really need to beat Pitt to help us in the big picture. Any other wins would kind of be a bonus at this point.

"I regret nothing. The end." - Ron Swanson

Agreed - though I'll add that home vs Miami isn't much different than home vs GT. Same for @ND not being much different than @Pitt. If we can beat GT at home and Pitt on the road this week, we should expect wins at ND and on senior day at home vs Miami.

Now that we have a larger sample size of games without Robinson, I still have like our chances for both home games (we were competitive against both Louisville and @Clemson). We have to do better than the 50 PPG we're averaging away from home to have a chance against either team on the road though.

Resume looking that much better after P$U beat UM tonight. 😁

"...I'm getting a little tired of hearing how good everybody else is..." -Coach Fu [This week: 1-0]

Technically, it looks the same as a Q1 loss remains a Q1 loss. But yes, the loss @Penn State is more likely to remain a Q1 loss for the rest of the season now.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.