Ask TKP: Over/Under 8 Regular Season wins for the Hokies in 2020?

Vegas set its over/under regular season win total for Virginia Tech at 8. Are you going over or under for the Hokies this season?

(And yes, these odds are for a full regular season, not one impacted by COVID-19.)

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

Im going with the under - but only because we wont play 8 games this year.

Danny is always open
23 can't read

I don't think we will have a season. Seems the kids in town can't stop partying enough to stop the spread of the 'rona. I really hope we do though. We are all going to need it.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

DISCLAIMER: I am not a member of the medical community, so take this opinion with a grain of salt. I hope everyone does the same with the opinions of the talking heads in the sports world. Look at the data above and decide for yourself.

Looking the US as a whole and at each state's COVID-19 "curve", the data suggest that COVID-19 should run it's course by early June. Now it's very possible we see another small spike in the curves as people try and rush back to normality, but it shouldn't be nearly as bad as the first peak. This should leave plenty of time for CFB to commence in August.

With that, I am truly perplexed by those in the sports media world who are so convinced that we won't have a college football season. It would take a major overreaction by the NCAA and a decision made 3+ months in advance to cancel the CFB season.

Also, pound that OVER baby, GO HOKIES!

"Go Hokies!" - Thomas Jefferson
@HaydenDubya

I think it has as much to do with people expecting another wave of Covid during the flu season this fall/winter.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

I read through the statistical methods in the paper, and it seems odd. First they said they are using a "gaussian error function," but their explicit definition of it is a gaussian cumulative distribution function multiplied by a constant. The important thing to note is that the CDF integrates to 1, so they are already assuming the death rate comes back to zero. Not that it won't but that seems like an odd thing to include as a model assumption for forecasting.

I'd like to see some more details here about the actual estimation, because what is there appears to be missing a lot. One thing that's obviously missing is the lack of any computational details about estimation. They said they are using the likelihood, but they haven't written one down.

The biggest red flag here is towards the end of the methods they say that there is a relatively small number of deaths from the US included in this model (n = 46).

Granted this is a paper in review, so maybe they will end up including the missing details that will make this make sense. They also haven't put the plots where they should go in the paper yet, I'm not saying it is definitely wrong, but I would be suspicious.

Username checks out...

My wife takes the kids and leaves the house while I watch my Hokie games.........nuff said

It's because sportswriters hate their jobs and would rather listen to Springsteen albums while tweeting about politics.

I don't want to start a flame war, but here I go....
What is up with sports writers love for Springsteen, it's a little creepy. Not that I am criticizing him, because I wouldnt mind living a life like his, but he seems to be the anti sports guy.

His job is to sit around and write down what he thinks. He could do concerts from a recliner (might lose some stage presents but I've seen concerts packed for bands that just stood there).
He is a loner, his songs are about being a loner, he is definitely not a team guy.
He did sign up for the army, but didn't pass the physical.
He's never had a real job, he was playing in bands before he graduate high school, he had a record deal with a major label at 22.

Maybe sports writers love him because they feel like loners and dont have a team because they get berated by the coach for asking stupid questions. Maybe Springsteen is paying ESPN to make sure they talk about him to improve record sales, I dont know. But its weird.

P.S. I think the musical act that people in sports would most want to associate with is Wu Tang Clan. They are individuals that come together to make something greater than themselves and they ain't nothing to f with.

1) Most major sportswriters grew up listening to Bruce. They're his target demo.

2) Sportswriters consider themselves working class heroes and identify with Bruce's music. The rest of the sports world doesn't quite consider writing about sports to be on par with working in the coal mines.

Under, no training camp, new D staff and still no faith in the O

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

This is where I'm at. We absolutely need the over. But breaking in a new defensive staff and likely a lot of schematic changes is going to be difficult with no spring ball. Hopefully we get to make some of the time up if we can get back to normalcy this summer, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Also you said it - I'll believe it when I see it from this offense. Last year even when hooker took over it was a very, very limited offense relying heavily on play action and a pared down passing attack. I'm still waiting for this offense post-Evans to finally click.

Hammer the over, if its played this team finally has a QB that can run the system, experience at the skill positions. WR core is good looking, DLine is a concern but the secondary should be much better off than past seasons. ACC is gonna be weird but I like our chances of 9 wins.

Directions from Blacksburg to whoville, go north till you smell it then go east until you step in it

I'll take the over.

Over (11-2) plus ACC coastal champs.

I like the over. Schedule timing sets up well, get a week GT the week before UNC and then a week off after. 9 days to prep Louisville, though admittedly that stretch of Louisville-Pitt-Miami could be tricky. We will see if we play though.

I want the over, but I'd also be up to putting money on the push

If we get all 12 games in, I'd expect us to be able to win 9 or 10. 3-1 Non-Conf, 6-2 to 7-1 in Conference.

Some of us seem to be forgetting that everyone else is going to be missing out on these spring practices and potentially summer workouts and fall camps. All NCAA teams are in this boat.

If we miss 1 game, I see us at 9-2 at best
If we miss 2 games, I see us at 9-1 at best
If we miss 3 games, I see us at 8-1
4 games, 8-0

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Some teams had spring practices: BC and Clemson got in some practices other ACC teams may have gotten in 1 or 2. It's not equal across the country for example UCONN and Coastal finished. Several schools were close to being done.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I could see us losing to a perennial 6-6 BC program because of that too. They had that ole leg up in terms of spring practice. That's huge.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

IF we have a season. Under 8 is unacceptable with the level of returning production we have overall, and the number of returners at key positions like DL, QB, LB, WR, OL, and CB.

Give me over

If you want level-headed opinions, don't go on a message board or sports forums

Over, I think we get 9 or 10 realistically. Also UVA at 6.5 makes me very happy. Would love a live look at le sabre when they see that.

"What are you going to do, stab me? - Quote from Man Stabbed

Hammer that under on LOLUVA. No way they get 7 wins without Bryce and plauomg Georgia amd Clemson.

and plauomg Georgia amd Clemson

...you okay?

Under. I just don't see the season taking place

Comment Disclaimer: My comment are meant to be take as-is. If you cannot handle it, do not hit ‘Reply All.’

Realistically? There will be no season.

If we play? Take the over, but only barely. I'd say 9 (as I do most years) due to shortened conditioning/camp.

There will be a season. Will it look like the traditional football season that we all know and love? Maybe not, but it will take place in some form or fashion, even if it's in Spring rather than Fall.

The NCAA and all of the football playing universities may not have a handle on pandemic models and such, but they all know that football is the crude oil that drives THE engine. Losing the basketball tournament was one thing, that was millions of dollars. Losing the football season is billions with a "B". That will not be tolerated.

Leonard. Duh.

Playing the football season because it makes you money this year is a very greedy way to run your business. And I don't mean in the way that we all know the NCAA is greedy. I mean as in a greedy algorithm: optimize long term profits by optimizing immediate profits at every step. Even the NCAA have to understand that if they make the full B billions this year (which would be unlikely if there is still an outbreak), but thousands of people get the virus in the process, or even just several teams spread it to each other, that can be damaging to long term profits. That's the reason they cancelled the NCAA tournament. It wasn't because they looked at the opportunity to make millions of dollars and decided that was chump change.

What I'm trying to say is that a lost football season is going to be a hard pill to swallow when at most schools it almost wholly subsidizes all of the other sports except for basketball (there are exceptions to this also).

I'm not worried about being laid off during the COVID-19 outbreak because I'm greedy. I'm worried about paying my bills.

If we don't play football this year, expect to see universities sharpen their pencils on the non-revenue sports. Wisconsin fired the warning shot with the announcement to hand the seniors this year their hats and show them the door.

Leonard. Duh.

I don't think anyone is suggesting they will nix football, but keep other sports anyway. That's just not an option on the table.

But I expect the decision to play football hinges on more than the amount of money that can be made if the season happens. I hope the consideration is public health, but even if it purely fiscal, long term revenue depends on more than this year.

Also, again, greedy algorithm is the name for the type of optimization. It doesn't imply actual greed. That's just actually the name for an optimization that maximizes each individual step. An example would be if you wanted to find the highest point in North America, but you didn't have a topographical map. A greedy strategy would be to take each step as far uphill as you can. It can work well when you don't have another way to optimize, but it doesn't guarantee a global best option. What I'm trying to say is that optimizing their revenue this year is not a good way to optimize long term revenue for the NCAA. I am not implying that you might be greedy for worrying about money during a pandemic.

Under - I saw a 2 deep on twitter yesterday. Not enough explosiveness on offense to compensate for a poor DL/new defensive scheme. I'm not going to assume our running backs are Gayle Sayers until I see it in games. And losing Hazelton's experience and redzone presence will hurt with RS freshman replacing him.

I thought the DL played very well last year, especially considering our two deep consisted of two true fr DTs.

However you're spot on about Hazelton, we desperately need Tre and Robinson to continue improving along with Mitchell

With a full season, I'd take the over. Penn state, UNC, Louisville will be the toughest games imo.

We will have more trouble- much more IMO @ Pitt than with Louisville. And as long as I am alive, I will not "pencil" in a win over BC for VT.

You're definitely right that being at Heinz is a factor, and BC has a BYE before they play us. Neither one's a gimme for sure.

VT remains the only team in the P5 that has any trouble with Heinz Field.

Syracuse hasn't won in Pittsburgh since 2001.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Syracuse sucks- has since McNabb... so 2 teams have trouble in front of the 10K people in Heinz - on a good day.

It's not just Heinz field, we sucked in Pittsburgh before heinz field existed.

I want the over, but I think I'm a little more pessimistic than most on the realities of no spring ball, no camp, coaching turnover, etc etc etc

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I would bet over

"You don't stare into a rearview mirror"

so we are picked to finish 3rd in the coastal. I hope that this changes- our division sucks. Fuente / cornelson will need to find some talent and skill positions fast, and Hamilton will need to shore up that d line and front 7 in general to push us to the coastal crown. I hope Fuente and staff are fired up to overachieve this year.

9-3

Under normal circumstances I would say over and even wonder why anyone would take the under with the amount of talent returning, particularly on offense. I know the D is breaking in a new staff, but I do suspect many things from a general schematic standpoint might be similar or easy to learn.

However, this team is missing Spring ball (I know other teams are as well), but this group desperately needed the Spring, especially on the defensive side. If we have a season, I suspect it will be another disappointing one from a W-L perspective. I'm going with the under

Is coronavirus over yet?

I would love to trust Corny to get creative with Quincy Patterson on offense some how. But, nah, he will run Hooker on QB powers early and often because we have no running game without it, and Hooker has to stay in there because Quincy's "expected outcomes" passing the ball aren't as good. So as we try to figure all that out, we lose a couple key ACC games and boom, there goes the coastal. After we do lose an acc game we shouldn't, they will wake up and we will see Quincy, Burmeister and Hooker all making plays. It will be too late.

Under

because I'll use the Tar Heel line of excuse and say that, because the stadium was empty the game didn't count.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I'd bet a hefty sum on the under for Duke.

I'm leaning toward the over for VT but that Miami game stands out as a swing game. Hard to know how D'Erik King might pan out for them.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

Can I take - Push - With all the changes, psuedo drama, and real drama we had this offseason even before we add in COVID-19 a 9+ win season was always going to be a delicate thing.

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

I will also take the push. I think we get to 9 wins but it takes a bowl game to get there. This is all dependent on the season actually being played. If it's not a regular season then all bets go out the window.

Vegas is picking another bad year for the ACC with a lot of middling mediocrity. But, I guess that's standard #goACC

🦃 🦃 🦃

If we have a season, gimme the over. If there is no season, gimme the over...why not.

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

The defense isn't going to have time to gel under the new staff. Under.

Under

Losses to Pitt, BC, UNC, Penn State, and some other ACC head-scratcher. Why not Duke, I guess.

well, winning the college football playoff means we'll probably have to have more than 8, so I'll take the over.

Realistically, if we have a season, I think it will contain chaos like we have seen since 2007 due to shorted training, weird shifts in attendance and because 2020 has already be a weird year. I have absolutely no idea how things will shake out. Ask me in week 4.

I think we will need a bowl game to get to 10 wins. Over.

Sometimes we live no particular way but our own

Assuming we have a full season, rational me would be over. 8 wins last year with a lot of returning players and a far from murderer's row schedule. Would expect improvement.

If I was actually betting money, I go under. For one, when is the last time we did not have a WTF loss? Two, I try to bet against the team I want to win. If they go over and I lose $20, I'm happy, and don't care about losing $20. If they go 7-5 or 6-6, at least I get lunch out of it.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

I don't think there will be a season. If there is, though, I would take the under simply because this team missed spring practice. We're going to be very sloppy, particularly on defense. I'm not sure spring would have helped this team enough to manage 8+ wins anyway but not having the spring is certainly going to make their task much, much more difficult.

I am very much in wait and see mode with this team for the next year or two. The new defensive coaches have big shoes to fill. It will be very interesting to see how this defense changes and grows over the coming years. I've been waiting for this offense to get off the ground for 4 years already and I've reached the point where I can't expect them to actually take flight until they demonstrate some semblance of consistency. Here's to hoping they find their wings sooner than later.

If this season happens, which is doubtful IMO, this team is probably headed for 6 or 7 wins.

Liberty - Toss-Up: Even in wins, we don't look convincing against "inferior" competition. We've lost games we should win and we've barely won very tense, nail-biters against pretty poor teams.
Penn State - Loss: PSU is too talented and too well coached
Middle Tenn. - Win: I hope!
North Alabama - Win: I hope!
GT - Win: But closer than we'd like. GT is going to improve each year so we need to watch out
UNC - Loss: Mack is building something to be envious of in Chapel Hill...This is not Larry Fedora
BC - Loss: BC eats our lunch
Louisville - Toss-Up: Louisville should be terrible. We should win this. Which is exactly why I'm worried we might not.
Pitt - Win: I don't know anything about Pitt. I hope this isn't just wishful thinking.
Miami - Loss: This just feels like the type of game Miami would win
Duke - Win: VT gets their revenge (I hope)
UVA - Win: LOLUVA

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

BC - Loss: BC eats our lunch

We're talking about the BC in Chestnut Hill, MA right? That's more pessimistic than realistic. What do they have coming back that concerns you in the least? AJ Dillon is gone and take away Ryan Willis outrageous completion percentage to BC's defensive backfield, we beat them last year. They've only gotten worse.

I would root for the Russians before I would root for Virginia.

Not that I follow BC at all but it seems like they've lost their best players. Though the much bigger thing about that loss that no one talks about was that our secondary get obliterated by a very meh BC passing game. BC actually didn't run the ball all that well in that game.

They still put up over 150 on the ground, including a ~30 yarder by the QB. Not saying the pass D wasn't shit, because it was and I take your point. But I still think if you take AJ Dillon off their roster, we're not stacking the box and probably aren't watching 2 50 yard bombs burn our DBs and we win.

That's to say nothing of ol' Ryan "scared money don't make money" Willis' interception-palooza

I would root for the Russians before I would root for Virginia.

Hard line. I want to be positive we're returning so much production from last year. We were plays away with a bunch of inexperience from having a good season last year.

On the other hand we have a brand new coaching staff and far less time to prepare.

(add if applicable) /s

Over. I think the lack of spring ball hurts us less than most schools. I prefer returning a bunch of production+a coaching shakeup to no coaching shakeup+average returning production.

Also, the positions where we most need to find new contributors (RB, WR) are ones with relatively flat learning curves. You see more impact freshman at WR and RB than LB, QB, DL, or OL. Every school is scrambling, and I like our situation more than most.