Reminder: Don't Host or Attend Parties during the Quarantine/Lockdown

A joint message from Dean of Students Byron Hughes and Blacksburg Police Chief Anthony Wilson

The latest mandate from Gov. Ralph Northam restricting gatherings to 10 people or less reflects the seriousness with which we need to approach situations that would contribute to the spread of COVID-19.

For this reason, should the Dean of Students Office or the Blacksburg Police Department need to respond to your residence for concerns regarding noise violations or disruptive parties a referral will be made to the Student Conduct office for their follow-up.

We cannot stress enough the need to treat this public health crisis with the utmost seriousness, even if you are not experiencing health concerns related to COVID-19. There are a number of students that understand this and care deeply about how others with ongoing challenges to their physical health could be affected if exposed. We appreciate the steps you are taking.

First, just don't do it. Even if you aren't going to get sick from this, there's a decent chance that someone you know or someone you love would have a very bad reaction to it, and could die if you are reckless during this time. You can have it and not even know, and pass it to someone who very well would die from contracting it. Don't be the person who gets someone else killed.

And if that isn't a good enough reason, if you are caught throwing a party during this time, on or off campus, due to the 10 person restriction in place from the government, you'll be in deep shit with Student Council at VT. You don't want to potentially put your future at VT in the hands of a group of students who do not care about you as a person, and routinely kick people out for a variety of reasons.

Just a PSA.

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Comments

"Restaurants, fitness centers, and theaters" I saw are mandated to keep gatherings to 10 or less. But the state governor is not mandating groups of citizens to be less than 10, only suggesting. Wise or not, best interest of the public or not, is VT suggesting they are going to punish you for practicing your first amendment right to peacefully assemble?

I'd prefer this not spiral into a discussion on the suspension of needing a warrant during "Exigent Circumstances" a la the Boston bombings, because I do think this is a different situation. That was a specific search for a specific person/group of people. I'm not sure I agree with it, but at least there is a defined goal and a defined end point. Where does one draw the finish line here? Once a vaccine is created? Once COVID-19 is eradicated? Once a certain death rate is reached? What if the vaccine is less than 100% efficient? What if there is a new virus?

I don't want to come across as a conspiracy theorist wack-a-doo, or being uncaring about the elderly and immunocompromised, but these are some crazy sweeping decisions being made that will have lasting real world effects on businesses, families, and how the government reacts in future situations.

Where does one draw the finish line here? Once a vaccine is created? Once COVID-19 is eradicated? Once a certain death rate is reached? What if the vaccine is less than 100% efficient? What if there is a new virus?

This is my question as well. At what point do we come out of hiding? Even if cases are widely down, it's likely that the virus is not completely gone. Will it ramp back up again? Do we then start over with quarantines? When/what is the end state?

Even if cases are widely down, it's likely that the virus is not completely gone. Will it ramp back up again?

According to the recent Imperial College report, the answer is yes.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Right. So, then what? Just wait out for a vaccine? Take our chances?

And this is literally saying a 5 month lockdown isn't going to be enough time.

Eventually, our industries will need to restart, or you're going to see every single mom and pop shop nationally go out of business and the only ones left are going to be large corporate retailers. And entire industries (airline travel being a major one right off the top of my head) will go bankrupt and cease to operate.

As I said yesterday, a tough decision is going to have to be made in the near future. Are we going to allow our entire global economy to crumble apart and deal with the very real social, political, financial, and economical fallout that will result from it (with the very real possibility it creates enough civil unrest that some very major wars break out as an indirect result) or do we try and resume life and deal with the immediate fallout that will happen because of it? Because, if current stories are true, we're at least 18 months from a vaccine and any attempt to 'get back to normal' between now and then is likely going to cause the kind of outbreak that 'flattening the curve' is attempting to delay now.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Unfortunately, the small businesses are already starting to fail. Camden's Bowling Alley and restaurant in Wakefield, RI has basically already gone under. The state closed the lanes first, then the restaurants. The owners family has owned it for 50 years.

I feel like the biggest misnomer there is that the red line stays level throughout the graph. The goal over the next month should be to (a) minimize new cases so ICUs aren't overwhelmed and (b) shift enough manufacturing lines for nonessential goods to medical supplies and convert more hospital space to ICU beds to support the inevitable increase in demand when all these quarantine measures are lifted, therefore raising that red line. Hopefully the spread is reduced enough to satisfy (a), but we won't know for another week or so until the incubation period ends for people that went into isolation within the last few days. (b) has already started to happen, as I've heard a number of anecdotes (3M shifting to mask production, New York shifting prison labor to create hand sanitizer), and I would imagine that other companies have made similar changes to meet growing demand of certain other products. Time will tell if the hospitals can keep on top of demand long enough to increase capacity for dealing with this thing.

If both of those conditions are met, it's entirely that quarantines will be partially lifted. It's also likely that we'll be expected to go back under local quarantine conditions in the future if ICU demand starts rising faster than expected.

I feel like the biggest misnomer there is that the red line stays level throughout the graph. The goal over the next month should be ... convert more hospital space to ICU beds to support the inevitable increase in demand when all these quarantine measures are lifted, therefore raising that red line.

In the original analysis, the red line is the surge capacity of ICU beds per 100,000, so I would think the ability to create new ICU beds is factored in. I'm posting the graph for the US (which is in the Appendix to the report) and the caption to the graph. I could not find (after a quick search) in the report how they arrived at surge capacity for ICU beds.


Figure A1: Suppression strategy scenarios for US showing ICU bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment strategy incorporating case isolation, household quarantine and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in US. The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. (B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Perhaps I'm ignorant or perhaps it's cabin fever and home schooling stress. But I'm not sure I understand this graph. Seems that regardless of what we do, ICU surge capacity is exceeded and it isn't even close. What am I missing?

I think what you're missing is the concept that, while not explained or shown in this graph, the blue field (suppression strategies) could be extended further, with periodic breaks, keeping the cases under ICU surge capacities, until a vaccine is available.

The authors note that they were not doing analysis on the economic impact of suppression measures.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Has any credible source tried to either discredit or validate the Imperial College report?

I really am a little skeptical at comparing different geographical and social regions in different climates (socially and seasonal). At the same time, who am I to not believe what is the best source I have seen on the subject to date?

"I am probably too rational to be here"

I've been wondering about that as well. I did read through the paper, and none of the assumptions (like transmission rates and model characteristics) seemed out of whack to me, but I'm not an epidemiologist.

I must say, though, some of the modelling aspects seemed intriguing to me. If it wasn't for the fact that they're modelling how many people would die, I could really get interested in this type of modelling.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Technically it's not "how many people will die" but rather "demand for ICU beds". But I suppose that could still get pretty morbid once it passes the threshold by a lot.

True, that's the crux of the analysis, but they do provide overall death projections based on mortality rates from hospital overcrowding.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Can I get this overlayed with the S&P, unemployment, and divorce rates two years from now? Asking for a friend.

@hokie_rd

It can go either way, but in the last great recession, divorce rates fell. People likely don't have stability during the down periods to take such a risk. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4444228/#idm140298350766688...

My 2020 Season/Covid19 Challenge: only comment with Marvel memes.

My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes. (completed as of Nov. 29)

As long as you're not breaking any other law, the police can't legally break up a private group in their own home/apartment. This emergency degree, however, gives the state the power to pull licenses, which is extraordinarily persuasive to a business.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Underage drinking and noise complaints are both obvious laws that undergrad parties break all the time. You're right technically, but also you aren't in any practical sense, because they can absolutely break up any party that they want to.

Maybe so, but if a group of 20 seniors is grilling out at their apartment's open area, and there isn't a noise violation, would the police be able to break up said party?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

With how batshit insane people with power can be, do you even really want to take that chance? Everyone seems to be losing their mind over this virus. (Don't get me wrong, its bad, but I literally heard some people on a SXM Political channel yesterday comparing it to the Holocaust.....)

Those in power are looking to make an example out of someone to scare everyone else into submission. Don't be that sacrificial lamb.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

So the Blacksburg police reporting students to the Student Council is going to be the example that forces the country into submission?

The country? No

VT students, on the other hand.... And its not like the town of Blacksburg and VT have exactly been getting along nicely lately

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

And its not like the town of Blacksburg and VT have exactly been getting along nicely lately ever

FTFY.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Yes it's an unlawful assembly and they will be told to break it up. Just like with any declared unlawful assembly. Also at an apartment complex they are are on private property and the town can have large sway over public health and safety codes even during normal times at commercial properties. Fire inspections for example don't require a warrant.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Where are you getting that it is unlawful? The governor said restaurants, gyms, theaters, the places that need a license to operate, are limited to 10.
There has not been a cessation of the bill of rights yet.

Then ban on gathering is 10 or more period.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

This is not true. Not in Virginia that I can find, and not national. Some counties (San Diego I read), and states (Wisconsin, Colorodo) have bans on public gatherings of more than 10. The president recommended to limit gatherings to less than 10.

I can have 10 people in my home or yard without fear of getting a ticket.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/march/headl...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5053816002

The courtyard of an apartment complex isn't your private home. It's a public commercial space.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

That isnt "10 or more period", that is "10 or more in a public space."
My backyard is private space. Apartment courtyards can be public. Inside an apartment is not a public space. Having 15 of your buddies over to Terrace View to infect isnt smart, but isnt being banned by what the governor has said so far.

And there is a difference between "should not be" and "shall not be" greater than 10.

Please link where it is mandated that virginia is banning gatherings of 10 or more (outside of restaurants, fitness, and theaters ) because i do want to be educated on this. I have only seen suggestions, not bans for virginia.

Heard from Mom this morning. She went shopping this morning during one of the elderly restricted times. The police were monitoring that no more than 10 customers were inside the huge grocery store. 25 people were made to stand in line in a group outside in the rain...

We have some special people overseeing these restrictions.

Wow. I don't think blacksburg understands what the Governor actually mandated.

"Student Conduct" is not "student council", and student conduct issues aren't decided on by a student panel like honor court is.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

As a soon to be 41 year old I agree, as a 19 or 20 year old pretty sure I would have said go fuck yourself (or is ok boomer the equivalent now?

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
β€œI served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

unfortunately I think the naive 20yo version of me would have said the same... although all it would have taken was a stern message from my parents and I would have taken the advice to heart.

The good news is I am 22 and fully understand what we are dealing with here. Unfortunately, some of my classmates do not and were at the bar until it was mandated to close at midnight a couple nights ago. It's kind of a crapshoot.

Marshall University student.
Virginia Tech fanatic.

"OK Boomer" away! Lol

My friends and I have been doing virtual happy hours since COVID, just do that instead.

What's everyone's opinion on golf. My course has put in place several measures. 20 mins between tee times. Carts sanitized before and after all rounds. No raking, touching pins, sand bottles. 1 person per cart without a waiver etc etc.

I have a 1:20 tee time Saturday and I can't wait to be outside and move my body.

I am taking social distancing seriously because i truly believe we can curb this thing and be out of the woods quicker than expected with everyone pushing in the same direction.

Just wanted to see what you guys thought about golf during this shit show.

I have a tee time for Saturday and Sunday. We are proceeding with caution and trying to keep our distance from people we don't know.

"What are you going to do, stab me? - Quote from Man Stabbed

That sounds like a great idea. I would have no problem with it under those conditions. I would probably sanitize some parts of the cart like the steering wheel and gear selector myself, though.

And don't lick your balls, people!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Mostly what I've seen is:
-Card swipe yourself to pay. No cash. No over the counter transactions. This goes for the gatorade and bottle water as well.
-Water jugs removed from the course. (along with ball washers if there were any.)
-Rakes taken away for time being.
-Cups installed upside down so they stick above the ground an inch. Hit the cup, the putt counts.
-Leave the flag in...don't touch it.
-Wiping down of the carts when done (by staff) if the golfer rides.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

My course is taking the same precautions, and I hope to play tomorrow (rain & work willing).

And, I own my golf cart. With a cooler attached.

My opinion on golf: it's expensive and we're entering a recession.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Keep your head down on golf swing, you'll top it less.

this is accurate. my swing is not good.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Screw golf, book fishing trips

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

*with local guides that depend on guiding as a sole source of income. I know you saw Wes's Instagram post, really got me thinking about how hard this is kicking some of my guide friends ass.

(add if applicable) /s

Yes, that was a great post by him. My ass is getting kicked right now. I should be flush with fishing trips and casting lessons getting scheduled through May. I currently have one for this weekend and one casting lesson Wednesday.

My second source of income, the start up I've been working on managing AirBnb properties is dead in the water at the moment.

Regardless, I'll live and come out of this better than before.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Sorry to be a wet blanket but your tee time is unnecessary and will just extend the virus longer than needed. The more we can just shut ourselves in and not "social distance" ourselves and truly bring the hammer down the better it will be for all of us.

Yeah totally disagree with proper precautions. I didn't see another human.

I don't understand your post. I presume sarcasm to my response?

What is there to understand?

I disagree that you think locking your self in your house is the only way to combat this.

Playing golf didn't harm anyone, only helped my mental health.

What is there to understand?

Your poor use of sarcasm in a sentence structure.

Playing golf didn't harm anyone, only helped my mental health.

If there were germs that you had / or were exposed to then you're just exacerbating the issue. If anything, I think you're being selfish.

There is a happy area between locking yourself in your room and being an idiot. Golfing by yourself is an extremely low risk spread activity...

(add if applicable) /s

It's just extra risk. There's always a chance something wasn't wiped down properly etc that you could catch it. Call it overkill, but social distancing isn't going to get it done fast enough.

My apologies I'm on a phone. Sentence structure takes a back seat.

It is ok that you think that. It is also ok that I disagree. As said before proper precautions have been taken. If that isn't good enough for you then I guess I'm sorry?

That's fine. This post would've been better than the snarkier response you provided earlier, which is why I wanted to clarify "I don't understand this post".

Nothing was snarky about it. I'm sorry you interpreted it that way. I am serious when I say I disagree.

That's fine too. I'm serious when I say I disagree as well.

What if said party is to share covid 19 with everyone so that we build immunity ala chickenpox parties?

/s not suggesting this, dont take medical advice from me.

kinda maybe sorta an OK idea for low-risk populations... if the healthcare system wasn't already on the way to being overwhelmed with severe cases from unintentional infection.. Even in a low-risk group someone's going to get a severe case and need to go to the hospital.

These kind of things are best left until this disease is on chickenpox status (wide community exposure/immunity) and the healthcare system is back to normal

Except we don't know if people are immune if they get it and survive. This could be a case where you can get sick over and over.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

That would be a vicious cycle.

We will find out in China soon.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

there are already cases of people recontracting the virus. there are also supposedly people immune to it.

I don't think it goes away completely without a vaccine

The vaccine could have the exact same impact.
Depends on the mutation and how long the human body maintains its ability to recognize the virus and build antibodies.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Do you have credible sources on people recontracting the virus? I saw a few stories, but they were all unverified or outright debunked.

Link?

Recruit Prosim

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Watched this for a while last night, it was pretty awesome, music was great, and a good way to pass some time.

@hokie_rd

Take a brake here is some levity! This is my humor of absurdity.

Bad Language

Nockers

Stop hoarding. It will end soon. Peace.

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

Don't have to worry about that here, house parties were just banned in my area

Not sure where the best place to share this is, but I thought it was pretty cool piece by the NYT:

Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
Doctor groups are recommending testing and isolation for people who lose their ability to smell and taste, even if they have no other symptoms.

Twitter me

Yes students don't give any "ammo" to power hungry, vindictive, agenda driven fellow students on the honor court or conduct committee to kick you out of school for violating a clear directive from the University and Governor of Virginia. Don't be accountable for your own actions. Those fellow students are just out to get you and their brains aren't mature enough to make such a "life changing" decision.

i understand (i hope?) this is tongue-in-cheek, but the conduct committee isn't run by students, and the OP isn't saying "don't be accountable for your own actions", it's saying "here are some ramifications you may not know about, please realize you are accountable for your own actions even if the consequences are unfair or harsh".

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Yes, very much sarcastic and TIC..

great, glad we're on the same page

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I don't know if there's a better thread for this, but to uplift some spirits today.

My 2020 Season/Covid19 Challenge: only comment with Marvel memes.

My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes. (completed as of Nov. 29)