MBB Final Record and Tournament Seed

I thought I would try to guess where VT will end up with two games left in the regular season. Our best record is 8-12. The first 8 teams in the standings all have 9 or more wins; so our best hope is the 9 seed. Below is a table to help sort out the possibilities. Only 1 game involves the bottom teams playing against each other. WF at UNC.

The Best column assumes everyone wins out. UNC and WF cannot both win out; but either one of them could. For the expected column, I assumed the much higher ranked team or the home team wins.

For the Best possible record scenario, we end up tied with Miami and WF. BC would be 9, Miami 10, VT 11 and WF 12.

For the expected case, we end up tied with Miami. Same seeding.

For the worst case, Pitt joins the tie for 10. In that case, I think it goes Miami 10, VT 11, WF 12 and Pitt 13.

In most cases, we are going to end up with the 11 seed. In the best possible case, if we win out and BC and Miami and WF lose out, we would get the 9 seed. Given the schedules, that is not entirely unlikely. Syracuse winning at Miami is the least likely; followed by VT beating ND at ND.

A four-way tie for the 9 seed is also possible with BC, VT, Miami and WF at 8-12. In that case, Miami is no. 9, BC is 10, VT is 11 and WF is 12.

Since we hold the tie breaker against both Pitt and WF, we need to win one game to assure that get at least the 11 seed. If we lose both games, Pitt or WF could pass us leaving us as the 12 or 13 seed.

So, I think the most likely outcome is VT with the 11 seed. So, we are very likely to have to play the first day of the tournament.

The table is wrong on the Pitt and UNC records vs VT. We beat both teams.

Edited to update and correct table.

BC lost to Syracuse and WF lost to UNC tonight. It is now possible for all 6 teams to end up at 7-13. I'll figure out what that means and post tomorrow in the comments. I now think it is likely that if we win our last two games, we get the 9 seed. I expect BC to lose to FSU and WF to lose to NC State and UNC to lose to Duke. Pitt is also likely to lose to Ga Tech at Ga Tech. That leaves VT and Miami battling for the 9 seed. We have Clemson and ND. Miami has UVA and Syracuse. I like our chances.