I thought I would try to guess where VT will end up with two games left in the regular season. Our best record is 8-12. The first 8 teams in the standings all have 9 or more wins; so our best hope is the 9 seed. Below is a table to help sort out the possibilities. Only 1 game involves the bottom teams playing against each other. WF at UNC.
The Best column assumes everyone wins out. UNC and WF cannot both win out; but either one of them could. For the expected column, I assumed the much higher ranked team or the home team wins.
For the Best possible record scenario, we end up tied with Miami and WF. BC would be 9, Miami 10, VT 11 and WF 12.
For the expected case, we end up tied with Miami. Same seeding.
For the worst case, Pitt joins the tie for 10. In that case, I think it goes Miami 10, VT 11, WF 12 and Pitt 13.
In most cases, we are going to end up with the 11 seed. In the best possible case, if we win out and BC and Miami and WF lose out, we would get the 9 seed. Given the schedules, that is not entirely unlikely. Syracuse winning at Miami is the least likely; followed by VT beating ND at ND.
A four-way tie for the 9 seed is also possible with BC, VT, Miami and WF at 8-12. In that case, Miami is no. 9, BC is 10, VT is 11 and WF is 12.
Since we hold the tie breaker against both Pitt and WF, we need to win one game to assure that get at least the 11 seed. If we lose both games, Pitt or WF could pass us leaving us as the 12 or 13 seed.
So, I think the most likely outcome is VT with the 11 seed. So, we are very likely to have to play the first day of the tournament.
The table is wrong on the Pitt and UNC records vs VT. We beat both teams.
Edited to update and correct table.
BC lost to Syracuse and WF lost to UNC tonight. It is now possible for all 6 teams to end up at 7-13. I'll figure out what that means and post tomorrow in the comments. I now think it is likely that if we win our last two games, we get the 9 seed. I expect BC to lose to FSU and WF to lose to NC State and UNC to lose to Duke. Pitt is also likely to lose to Ga Tech at Ga Tech. That leaves VT and Miami battling for the 9 seed. We have Clemson and ND. Miami has UVA and Syracuse. I like our chances.
Comments
Important thing to note: Unless UNC wins their last two games (Pitt and Duke), they will
be the worst teamfinish last in the worst ACC in recent memory.ehhh I don't know about that one. They haven't gotten killed in many games this year, even with all their injuries. 5 or 6 of their losses have come in buzzer beaters / OT games / wild finishes. In my opinion, they were as close to finishing 10-10 as anybody in the league this year.
Let's just say, if we do get the 11 seed in the ACC Tournament, I would much, much rather draw Pitt or Wake than UNC.
A more accurate statement would be that UNC would have the worst record in the worst ACC in recent memory. I doubt they are worse than when BC didn't win a game for two straight years or when it was VT under James Johnson.
You love to see it.
That was a splash of cold water, the truth hurts at times. I think going into this season we all expected to be playing on day 1 of the tournament, but hope starting creeping in after that hot start. This is right where we thought we would be.
All you need is RIGHT HERE
Guess your outcomes and hit submit. Good thing about playing on day 1 is you have a shot to win a couple -it looks like Wake (edit- actually UNC) in the 1st round and then Clemson/ ND
Updated the table after results tonight. No 9 seed is still possible and even probable if we win out. Also 6 way tie among the bottom 6 teams is still possible.
Id rather not have a 9 seed if we are trying to win the ACC tournament. Then you would have to play the 1 seed the following round. Much rather play UVA as a possible 3 seed
Megh, we ain't going to the big dance unless we do something epic. Might as well go real big!
The win over Clemson obviously helps us out big tonight, as does another Miami loss. If we are able to pull off a win on Saturday, we are in good position to lock up the 9 seed.
If we lose and Miami wins, it looks like we get kicked back to the 11 seed and have to play on Tuesday.
If we lose and Miami loses (v Syracuse), then we likely get the 10 seed and get the bye, and play the 7 seed on Wednesday.
Here is the updated table.
I would expect BC to lose at FSU and WF to lose at NC State and UNC to lose at Duke because those are away games against better teams. Syracuse at Miami will be interesting and Notre Dame gave FSU all they could handle last night. Most likely scenario at this time is a three way tie for 9 with BC, Miami and VT and we are 0-2 against both teams, putting us as the 11 seed. If we and BC tie, we would be the 10 seed. And there is still a possibility of a five way tie, which I think gives us the 11 seed. But if we win at Notre Dame and Miami and BC lose, we would be the 9 seed.
Obviously I'd like us to get the 9 or 10, but out of the top 4 seeds I'd most rather play UVA or FSU. Louisville has always had our number and I think Duke is the most talented team and Coach K will turn it up to 11 now that it's March.
And it's at this time of year when mred's excellent ACC MBB bracket estimator is so useful:
http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb
I didn't realize GT was ineligible until looking at this site. I was already accepting the fact that we would be playing on Tuesday but with GT out that makes the 10 seed get a bye as well.
I believe our seeding is as simple as this:
VT beats ND:
#9 seed if BC loses to FSU
#10 seed if BC beats FSU
VT loses to ND:
#10 seed if Syracuse beats Miami
#11 seed if Miami beats Syracuse
I hadn't noticed that. It seems that recently GT dropped their appeal of sanctions:
https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/tech-withdraws-ncaa-appeal-won-play-a...