This one is pretty simple. The other team (miami) has a 1) a running QB, and 2) is ranked. Those two things combined should put this at a 90+% win probability for Miami. Even ESPN's matchup predictor has us at a 62.2% favorite. I'm not sure what the analysts are thinking, but I think its clear they haven't actually watched our team play.
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maybe... same logic should be applied to us though. If Duke's offense could do anything in the 2nd quarter against us we probably dont win that game. If Louisville arrived before the 2nd quarter we probably have a different outcome there too.
We're 16 points away from being 2-5 and not 4-3 (we're also 22 points away from being undefeated). We have a razor-thin margin for mistakes. If we come out flat in the first quarter and dont put any points on the board i don't believe we have any chance of winning. But, if we come ready to play, the offense scores the way it should, and we can get off the field when we're on defense instead of allowing 10+ play drives (i.e., we tackle on third down) then we're going to have a good day.
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Both the loss to Wake & Liberty felt "insulting" and demoralizing; in hindsight those were both pretty decent teams (that we'd still be lightly favored in a rematch with).
Oddsmakers don't weigh organizational corruption, academic prowess, conference grouping or any of that shit when they figure out how good of a football team they're looking at. How good our fanbase thinks our opponents are allowed to be probably doesn't weigh into these calculations at all.
As for our draw with Miami; Phil Steele has us at about a 3 point favorite in his power rankings, as does the SRS. Three of Sagarin's reliable indicators are within 2 points (we're slightly favored in the "Golden Mean", and 6 point dogs in his "Recent" predictor). Raw SP+ ratings would have us as favorites as well. FEI hasn't updated yet, but they seem to favor Miami more than the others.FEI has us favored at 51.7%. And ESPN says 62.2%.
As cathartic as it seems to bash the shit out of our team right now, lots of teams are not playing their best football this season. It shouldn't be a huge shocker, but parity is rampant this year. The Sun-Belt went 3-0 against the Big 12 in week 1. There are currently 7 G5 teams in the Top 25. (2 in the top 10). That's not normal.
Honestly, I'm not insulted by losing to Wake, because as I've said elsewhere on here, conferences go through power shifts. Sure, we probably should not lose to them, but it happened. I'm pissed off about HOW it happened. Looking totally unprepared and just flat out disinterested in playing football that day pisses me off.
Liberty, however, pisses me off. At this point in time, there is no excuse for VT to lose to Liberty.
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Not to recap news from 2-3 weeks ago, but we played fine against Wake, we just turned the ball over thrice. We moved the ball well, played good defense. That was by definition a fluky loss, and that's why none of the predictive rankings dinged us after the loss.
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Damn, I almost felt something like empathy for Miami fans. Then I remembered this and quickly turned back to a combination of pitying and loathing them.
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Thankfully, daughter has a swim meet that the wife volunteered us to both work at, so I will get to miss this. Maybe they pull off a huge upset - don't care what the line is, it would be a huge upset - but that is what recorders are for I guess.
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I had resigned myself to not watching, but a nooner is kind of a dead period in our house on saturdays anyway. After lunch we send the kids to their rooms for naps/quiet play time. The wife and I try to recharge our batteries after a morning of chasing kids around so I won't be doing anything anyway. Guess I'll watch in vain for the chance to see something completely unexpected (which can only be good at this point).
me as a hokie fan:
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I'm telling y'all we are going to come out this weekend and play like world beaters and for 3 hours, last week, Wake, and UNC will be forgotten...it's what we do now!
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I was texting a friend of mine before the Liberty game saying that it would be so on brand for us to lose to Liberty and beat Miami. So far, I'm half right.
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I'd personally accept the nooner or one of the old Pac-12 after dark timeslots that aired long after most people on the east coast went to sleep. Minimize the amount of eyes on what is sure to be an absolute travesty.
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At least if we randomly beat Miami it will help our abysmal record against Top 10 teams (I don't think Miami is anywhere near a real Top 10 team). It won't make me feel any better about the current state and trajectory of our football program though and that's sad - that's something a win over a top ten team should ALWAYS do.
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Annnd we'll be right back in the thick of the ACCG...if we, by some act of god and a little more help, beat Clemson and everyone else drops another game. Welcome to the spinzone!
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oddly, this isn't wrong. It would be so 'us' of us to win the games we aren't expected to while we eff up the ones we're supposed to run away with. We shouldn't be favored in any game from this point forward.
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No. I'm saying if we beat Miami then our probability that we lose to pitt will skyrocket.... just because... We'll be high and ready to play a highly-ranked name brand team, and then we'll collapse from that high and sleepwalk through the next game.
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I fully expect Fuente to have the boys fired up and ready to go. He does his best work when his back is against the wall. I wouldn't be surprised with a W on Saturday. Conversely, I wouldn't be surprised in a blowout loss.
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The fact nothing surprises us is kind of a huge indicator of the deep rooted problems in Blacksburg. There is no identity. No consistency. That's very troubling. The only sure thing about VT football anymore is that we're going to make bad teams look pretty good at least twice a season.
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Alright I can sleep through it.
I pledge one minute of sleep for every point Miami scores.'
I'll see you in primetime!
Why in sam hell are we favored to win over Miami? Hmmmmmm...Did the oddsmakers just witness us losing at home to the #25 team in the country?
This one is pretty simple. The other team (miami) has a 1) a running QB, and 2) is ranked. Those two things combined should put this at a 90+% win probability for Miami. Even ESPN's matchup predictor has us at a 62.2% favorite. I'm not sure what the analysts are thinking, but I think its clear they haven't actually watched our team play.
Miami was one quarter away from losing to NCSU who we boat raced. That's gotta count for something, right?
maybe... same logic should be applied to us though. If Duke's offense could do anything in the 2nd quarter against us we probably dont win that game. If Louisville arrived before the 2nd quarter we probably have a different outcome there too.
We're 16 points away from being 2-5 and not 4-3 (we're also 22 points away from being undefeated). We have a razor-thin margin for mistakes. If we come out flat in the first quarter and dont put any points on the board i don't believe we have any chance of winning. But, if we come ready to play, the offense scores the way it should, and we can get off the field when we're on defense instead of allowing 10+ play drives (i.e., we tackle on third down) then we're going to have a good day.
How the actual fuck are we favored???
Absolutely bizarre.
The only way this makes sense is if Vegas knows that King has an injury that hasn't been made public.
This line stinks to high Heaven....there is something going on here for sure.
Both the loss to Wake & Liberty felt "insulting" and demoralizing; in hindsight those were both pretty decent teams (that we'd still be lightly favored in a rematch with).
Oddsmakers don't weigh organizational corruption, academic prowess, conference grouping or any of that shit when they figure out how good of a football team they're looking at. How good our fanbase thinks our opponents are allowed to be probably doesn't weigh into these calculations at all.
As for our draw with Miami; Phil Steele has us at about a 3 point favorite in his power rankings, as does the SRS. Three of Sagarin's reliable indicators are within 2 points (we're slightly favored in the "Golden Mean", and 6 point dogs in his "Recent" predictor). Raw SP+ ratings would have us as favorites as well.
FEI hasn't updated yet, but they seem to favor Miami more than the others.FEI has us favored at 51.7%. And ESPN says 62.2%.As cathartic as it seems to bash the shit out of our team right now, lots of teams are not playing their best football this season. It shouldn't be a huge shocker, but parity is rampant this year. The Sun-Belt went 3-0 against the Big 12 in week 1. There are currently 7 G5 teams in the Top 25. (2 in the top 10). That's not normal.
If you're curious, check out some of the Miami fan reaction to the line being at VT -2.
Honestly, I'm not insulted by losing to Wake, because as I've said elsewhere on here, conferences go through power shifts. Sure, we probably should not lose to them, but it happened. I'm pissed off about HOW it happened. Looking totally unprepared and just flat out disinterested in playing football that day pisses me off.
Liberty, however, pisses me off. At this point in time, there is no excuse for VT to lose to Liberty.
Not to recap news from 2-3 weeks ago, but we played fine against Wake, we just turned the ball over thrice. We moved the ball well, played good defense. That was by definition a fluky loss, and that's why none of the predictive rankings dinged us after the loss.
You're not wrong. That game against Liberty was our worst performance since last year at Rhode Island:
Damn, I almost felt something like empathy for Miami fans. Then I remembered this and quickly turned back to a combination of pitying and loathing them.
That guy has "Grandma Aunt Karen" tattooed on his chest. Well, which is she? She can't be both.
You sure about that? This is Florida Man right here....
He's probably not even sure, too many Karen's down there. Also, it's more of a WV thing, but what VTnerf said.
Cocaine is a hell of a drug
Fuente is 13-4 at Tech in the games following a loss
I'm just going to save you the time of going back at 3:30 on Saturday.
**Fuente is 13-5 at Tech in the games following a loss
We just came off of a last second defeat against an undefeated top 25 team last week. The experts must think that was impressive.
#MakeTheMove
We're favored? Huh, and here I was wondering if we'd win another game this season.
The betting public disagrees. That line has been creeping down steadily. I expect Miami to be favored soon.
Thankfully, daughter has a swim meet that the wife volunteered us to both work at, so I will get to miss this. Maybe they pull off a huge upset - don't care what the line is, it would be a huge upset - but that is what recorders are for I guess.
I had resigned myself to not watching, but a nooner is kind of a dead period in our house on saturdays anyway. After lunch we send the kids to their rooms for naps/quiet play time. The wife and I try to recharge our batteries after a morning of chasing kids around so I won't be doing anything anyway. Guess I'll watch in vain for the chance to see something completely unexpected (which can only be good at this point).
me as a hokie fan:
Hokes Fans: But... but... but we want a late afternoon or primetime game?
Everyone Else:
I'm telling y'all we are going to come out this weekend and play like world beaters and for 3 hours, last week, Wake, and UNC will be forgotten...it's what we do now!
I was texting a friend of mine before the Liberty game saying that it would be so on brand for us to lose to Liberty and beat Miami. So far, I'm half right.
2003 and 2019 say you've got a good point.
I'd personally accept the nooner or one of the old Pac-12 after dark timeslots that aired long after most people on the east coast went to sleep. Minimize the amount of eyes on what is sure to be an absolute travesty.
At least if we randomly beat Miami it will help our abysmal record against Top 10 teams (I don't think Miami is anywhere near a real Top 10 team). It won't make me feel any better about the current state and trajectory of our football program though and that's sad - that's something a win over a top ten team should ALWAYS do.
Annnd we'll be right back in the thick of the ACCG...if we, by some act of god and a little more help, beat Clemson and everyone else drops another game. Welcome to the spinzone!
I believe it's been called the ACC Wheel of Destiny for a few years now
oddly, this isn't wrong. It would be so 'us' of us to win the games we aren't expected to while we eff up the ones we're supposed to run away with. We shouldn't be favored in any game from this point forward.
It would also be so Miami to take an unexpected L on a noon kickoff
...and so us to beat someone we shouldn't and then get blown-out the week after to a team we should handle easily.
So you're saying we beat Miami and lose to Pitt?
No. I'm saying if we beat Miami then our probability that we lose to pitt will skyrocket.... just because... We'll be high and ready to play a highly-ranked name brand team, and then we'll collapse from that high and sleepwalk through the next game.
Now we're into the WVU-Miami-Pitt sequence of 2003. We're close to completing this circle of pain.
[sigh]... i was there in person for each of those... all too familiar with the feeling
I fully expect Fuente to have the boys fired up and ready to go. He does his best work when his back is against the wall. I wouldn't be surprised with a W on Saturday. Conversely, I wouldn't be surprised in a blowout loss.
The fact nothing surprises us is kind of a huge indicator of the deep rooted problems in Blacksburg. There is no identity. No consistency. That's very troubling. The only sure thing about VT football anymore is that we're going to make bad teams look pretty good at least twice a season.
Like I said in another thread, VT's identity is a Box of Chocolates.
I guess we got rid of the lunch pail to replace it with a box of chocolates
In true Fuente fashion we will lose to LU and then next week run over Miami. Shoot with the way this season is we will probably win out...
Don't get your hopes up with the way this season is going we'll beat Miami, Lose to Pitt, beat Clemson, lose to UVA.
If this is true, we better build and box his ass into his office with concrete so his back is continuously up against a wall...
Any chance we can push this to a 3am EST kickoff? That way there is a slim chance of anyone seeing what we all expect to happen.....
Planning to record the game and watch during prime time. Trying to convince myself that last weekend's game never happened.
The Canes must have payed Vegas to set the line as VT -2.5, knowing that we play much better as a big underdog than we do as a favorite. /s