Changa Hodge tears his ACL. Will miss the entire season.

Fuente confirmed this morning that Hodge tore his ACL and will miss the season. Totally sucks as was looking forward to seeing him take off this year. Thin WR depth gets thinner.

[mod edit: clarified title and added tweet embed]

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Ouch. Here's hoping for a fast and full recovery.

well fuck

Twitter me

Perkele, I was expecting him to be in the top 5 in targets.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

Year One of VT Football is already facing adversity...or is this Year Zero in light of this news?

Every year is Year Zero

HTHokie93

Year one. Year zero. How low can you go? Was actually looking for something with a Japanese Zero fighter but could only find this.

via GIPHY

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

The strange things that people will photoshop. :)

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

No, not Bucky!!!

I hate rude behavior in a man. Won't tolerate it.

Welp, we better hope that (A) Payoute gets 100% by fall camp and is as good as advertised and (B) Loften and Jones are ready to step up immediately to provide depth. We're three deep at receiver now (Turner, Robinson, Smith) with guys we can legitimately count on this fall. Maybe this means we move Blackshear to a more semi-permanent role as a slot receiver and Holston becomes the de-facto bell-cow RB.

This isn't good. Hodge was being talked up this spring as a legit option in the passing game.

Transfer portal for a legit third option needs to happen now.

Lofton was really impressive in the one scrimmage I went to so hopefully he continues to progress.

Gobble Till You Wobble

Evan Watkins on 247 is high on Loften as well. But he hasn't done anything yet in a real game to assuage concern.

Dallan Wright could be forced to step up early. The walk-on (Kakavitsas) and using DJ Harvey in a "Macho Harris" role are options as well.

This glaring lack of depth at key spots has definitely tempered my excitement for the fall. Tailgating and hanging out with everyone in Lot 18 is going to be far more interesting than the actual games.

I agree - unless some of the hype around certain players is justified (Clements, Moore, Payoute, Loften/Jones and McCray in particular), we are a couple of injuries from serious problems.

IMHO, I think the starting 11 on both sides is enough to be competitive in every game but I'm very concerted about the 2s.

We have serious problems now at WR... that is if your expectation is more than 7-5, etc. We have 2 proven WRs- not good, not good.

The hope is that Loften and Jones turn into Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin and can be productive receivers as freshmen.

I agree this is bad - we were already thin with proven WR options. We really need to hit the portal for a plug-and-play option.

i get that youre specifically talking about WR, but we do still have mitchell as an extremely good pass catcher

Yes, Mitchell can play. Might be our best offensive player. But he is not a WR. And if he is used as one, teams can take him away and you are back where you started- Always injured Tre and Tavion. Again if 7-5 is the goal, we are fine.

Again if 7-5 is the goal, we are probably fine.

FTFY

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

Sadly 7-5 would be considered a marked improvement.

We put the K in Kwality

Its (not) funny because its true

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

Well, damn.

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

Going to need a 2016 Ford/Phillips/Hodges type of year from Turner/Robinson/Mitchell and fingers crossed that those three stay healthy. Putting all our eggs in the no injury basket is not a good feeling.

which would also require a 2016 Evans type of year

I'm taking the over on BB 100+ carries.

We put the K in Kwality

If you count sacks, yes. If you don't count sacks or scrambles, no.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

let's break this down a bit. Assume 12 games. That's just over 8 carries per game. Assuming we go 3-and-out every single series and we get at least 5 series per half that's, at minimum, 30 plays per game offensively. If we assume that half of those are some variation on the jet sweep motion and the QB keeps the ball on 1/3 of those he'll have at least 5 carries just out of half the plays. If we assume that there are at least 5 designed QB keepers out of the 10 3rd downs we'll get that puts him at, conservatively, 10 carries per game.

So really, the only question mark is durability. If Burmeister plays every snap of every game there is a very, very good chance he'll go over 100 designed QB runs. But will he stay healthy? That's what we're actually betting on here, isn't it?

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

If you take BB's stats for the last 1.5 games (half of Clemson and UVA) and project that out over 14 games then it would be:

  • 233-317 completions-attempts
  • 73.5 % completion
  • 3164 yards
  • 10 passing TD's
  • 112 rushing attempts
  • 392 rushing yards
  • 3.5 yds/att

Jerod Evans were:

  • 268-422
  • 63.5 %
  • 3553 yards
  • 29 passing TD's
  • 268-422
  • 204 rushing attempts
  • 846 yards
  • 4.14 yd/att
  • 12 rushing TD's

Obviously Jerod was great at getting in the endzone and BB needs to improve on that end. I am not saying that BB will have a Jerod year but its not out of the question. I think the biggest concern is durability.

Nothing is out of the question. But I think it's highly unlikely BB will be able to consistently maintain the level of play of Evans. I think VT is more likely to win 0 games than for BB to come close to matching Evans' production

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

Should be a 99% chance of winning against MTSU. I'd take the bet that BB has a 1% chance of matching Evan's production. Not saying he will but those are some heavy odds. I think Jerod benefited from A) better play calling and more passing attempts B) 3 consistent pass catching play makers C) a few very strong games that padded his stats

Should be a 99% chance of winning against MTSU

Should be and will be are two different animals. I can't imagine Fuente's 2021 Hokies being favored with a 99% win probability against anyone. I'll defer to Joel for the real stats on that though.

I think Jerod benefited from A) better play calling and more passing attempts

Jerod had the same play caller who will be calling plays for BB so I don't think this is a factor. We'll have to wait and see how many passing attempts BB gets in 2021. If he has really taken advantage of being QB1 all off-season and has improved his passing abilities significantly the coaches may feel justified in calling more passes for him.

B) 3 consistent pass catching play makers

This is absolutely true. For whatever reason, we just haven't been able to find consistent, reliable receivers since Phillips left. This will absolutely be a factor. Someone (I don't remember who) pointed out that several of the incomplete passes BB threw in one (or two?) of his games last year were well thrown balls that were just dropped by the WRs. The passing offense and stats are almost always credited to the QB but there is definitely another key piece to the equation which VT has been missing for 4 years.

C) a few very strong games that padded his stats

This is likely to be the case for BB as well. One thing I have learned from watching VT football over the last 5 years is that Fuente's teams, over the course of a season, will have a couple phenomenal games where they look like real title contenders. Unfortunately, his teams always have a few games that are the complete opposite of that. But there is a very good chance that BB will have one or two monster games. That seems to be the pattern. The trick will be building off that instead of coming out a week later and having a real dud of a game.

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

Jerod had the same play caller who will be calling plays for BB

I'm not sure why I remember the play calling being a lot better/innovative that year. Maybe I was skewed by the W's in the left column or maybe Jerod just executed the plays better but it's just the feeling I get.

The play caller was new to our fans. Things weren't as predictable as they were under Beamer and we ran some different looks. Unfortunately in the years since, the play calls have all be similar and now there is film so those wonderful plays now look like every other.

Thanks for that analysis. Looking at those numbers, it's certainly not out of the question. While it's possible that the version of BB from the last two games could be the mainstay this year (now that he's been QB1 for a whole offseason, spring camp, more time in the system, etc.) I think it's also very possible that we could get BB1 from the first 2.5 games who struggled a bit more throwing down the field. Reality will probably be somewhere in between.

Durability is also a major concern as you pointed out.

Durability is also a major concern as you pointed out.

Seems to be the common theme for much of the roster. Scares the hell out of me.

What can't be overlooked on Evans' stats was that he was throwing to a veteran laden field with Ford, Phillips, Hodges, and Carroll running routes.

BB has exactly 2 non sophomore or younger targets in his arsenal, in Turner and Mitchell, who *should* both have productive years with around 100 catches between them. If we can get another 50 from Robinson, I'll probably be happy. That's at most 150 receptions by 3 players, leaving the rest of the receiving corps to get 100 to get close to Evans' numbers.

I think we will probably see about another 40 to backs (probably most to Blackshear) and another 40 to other receivers (led by Payoute, Lofton and Smith), and another 15 to other TEs (Gallo). If we hit those benchmarks, I think we'll be doing fine in the receiving game, with 245 total receptions. With that, I would expect 3300-3500 yards and 20-24 TDs.

Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

I'll have what you're having

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

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Go Hokies!

Almost as important as his work catching passes, we are seriuosly going to miss his blocking in the run game.

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