Hokies at Duke Dec 22 at 9 PM

The Hokies play #2 Duke at Cameron Indoor tonight at 9 PM. The game is on ESPN2. Duke is favored by 9.5; the O/U is 138.5. Again, I'm going to steal Shelton Moss's write up about Duke.

Preview: Duke

The Blue Devils are off to a roaring start in Mike Krzyzewski's final season as a head basketball coach, owners of a 10-1 record with marquee wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga. No bigger challenge will Virginia Tech face than the one in Cameron Indoor Stadium this evening.

Duke is no stranger to sensational freshmen, and the youngster leading the Blue Devils this year is forward Paolo Banchero (16.5 ppg). Banchero is a consensus lottery pick and widely projected to be taken first or second overall in the upcoming NBA draft. A quick look at his game reveals why: at 6'10, he can handle the ball like a guard and score in a multitude of ways: as a spot-up shooter, off the dribble, and certainly in transition. The one weak spot in his game is that he doesn't shoot threes, so you can sag off him if he gets the ball on the perimeter. The question is who will guard him? He's too tall for most guards and too athletic for most forwards. Tech might just have to take their lumps and hope to hold him under 20 points.

Perhaps the most pleasant surprise for Duke is the development of junior forward Wendell Moore (16.9 ppg), a former top 30 recruit who struggled the past two seasons but has turned into the team's most complete player. Moore is an incredibly efficient shooter (51st nationally in eFG%) and has by far the highest assist rate on the team (28.4%). He has played himself into a mid-first-round draft projection, in large part because he can now create his own shot.

At center is the formidable sophomore Mark Williams (9.2 ppg), who stands at 7'1 with a 7'7 wingspan. A native of Virginia Beach, Williams owns the fifth-best block rate in the country and is an elite offensive rebounder (you may see several back-taps on missed three-pointers). Oh, and he also shoots 70% on two-point field goals and is a projected first rounder. Coach K has an embarrassment of riches on his hands.

Last year, just about everything that could go wrong for Duke did go wrong. The Blue Devils went 13-11 and .500 in ACC play, failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995. Though they suffered poor close-game luck (2-7 record in games decided by six points or less), this was by far Coach K's worst team in the KenPom era (36th). The freshman class wasn't as good as people thought they would be, and while COVID affected every team, it certainly hamstrung the Blue Devils, who were one of the youngest teams in the country.

Fast forward a year and almost everything has changed. This year's team, though not much older, is certainly deeper and far more talented. They have a talented freshman guard in Trevor Keels (12.6 ppg) as well as a key bench piece in Marquette transfer forward Theo John, who is probably the team's best on-ball defender. (John fouled out late in Duke's lone loss to Ohio State, which undoubtedly had an impact in their late-game collapse.) Sophomore Jeremy Roach (9.3 ppg) is the starting point guard, though unlike Duke point guards of years past, he plays a fairly passive role in the offense and isn't a great shooter. That lack of offensive production will probably hurt Duke later in March, but for now, this team is stacked with enough talent to cruise past their ACC competition.

What makes Duke so dangerous is that they have stud athletes at every spot who can guard multiple positions. Statistically, there is almost nothing this team doesn't do well — they can shoot inside and outside, they don't turn it over, they share the ball, and they can defend. A big contributing factor to their defensive improvement is their foul rate, which ranks third best in the country. Given Tech's inability to get to the line, I wouldn't be surprised to see a large discrepancy in foul shots.

Additionally, Aluma will have a harder time posting up Williams than he did Osunniyi, who is longer and more refined as a player. Presuming that will be the case, Duke will not have to send additional help in the post and can stay on shooters, where they can use their superior athleticism to prevent Tech's guards from getting open looks.

Duke is favored for a reason — they are a very good basketball team stocked with NBA talent. While the Hokies have ample opportunities throughout the course of the year, to prove themselves as an ACC contender, tonight's game will be a measuring stick against one of the nation's premiere programs.

DUKE ROSTER

Duke starts 2 players taller than our tallest starter. As Shelton said, I don't know how we are going to guard a 6'10" player who handles the ball like a guard and shoots 34% from beyond the arc.

#0 Wendell Moore Jr. 6'5 F Jr. 30.9 MPG: 16.9 PPG: 5.6 RPG: 5.1 APG: 1.6 TOPG

#5 Paolo Banchero 6'10 F Fr. 28 MPG: 16.5 PPG: 7.3 RPG: 2.1 APG: 2 TOPG

#1 Trevor Keels 6'5 G Fr. 30.4 MPG: 12.6 PPG: 3.3 RPG: 3.2 APG: 1.3 TOPG

#3 Jeremy Roach 6'2 G So. 32 MPG: 9.3 PPG: 2.8 RPG: 3.2 APG: 1.5 TOPG

#15 Mark Williams 7'1 C So. 19.6 MPG: 9.2 PPG: 5.8 RPG: 1 APG: 0.5 TOPG

#13 Joey Baker 6'6 F Sr. 18 MPG: 7.7 PPG: 2.2 RPG: 0.8 APG: 0.6 TOPG

#21 AJ Griffin 6'6 F Fr. 13.2 MPG: 6.1 PPG: 2.4 RPG: 0.9 APG: 0.2 TOPG

#12 Theo John 6'9 F Gr. 14.7 MPG: 3.8 PPG: 2.9 RPG: 0.9 APG: 0.5 TOPG

SCHEDULE

Duke is 10-1 with wins against current #20 Kentucky and #4 Gonzaga and their only loss at current #14 Ohio State. An impressive resume.

STATISTICS

Season Averages:

Detailed Stats:

Duke shoots 49% overall and 37% from 3. They have held their opponents to 41% and 32%. The Hokies will see the best defense they will see this year. Duke is averaging 10 blocked shots per game! Open three's are going to be hard to find. They shoot over twice as many free throws as their opponents. Tech will be doing well to maintain that ratio, given the tendency of officials to give Duke the benefit of the doubt at Cameron Indoor.

It will be interesting to see if the Storm Murphy game against St. Bonnie was a one-off; or has he really turned a corner. Expect to see Duke press him tonight because he has not demonstrated the ability to handle that well. Alleyn has to find his shot if we are going to have a chance tonight and Cattoor needs to stay on his game. It would also help if Mutts could contribute a few points.

Keeping the final score close to the betting line will be a moral victory for the Hokies tonight.

LET'S GO HOKIES!