Hokies are projected as the last 9 seed by Joe Lunardi:
pic.twitter.com/UhjVsU2rPj— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 9, 2021
Before people jump on Joe, it's not just him. We are projected as the highest 9 seed by the Bracket Matrix, which is just an aggregation of all of the bracket predictions from experts, etc. (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)
We really need a win on Thursday or else we will probably slip to a 10 seed and enter borderline bubble territory. I'm really glad we scheduled that Villanova game or else I'd be very worried.
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Don't quite understand how a ranked team can be a 9-10 seed.
We are Virginia Tech
Because sportswriters don't make the bracket and we were helped out by a nice start to the season and the writers not dropping us far.
We're 42nd in the NET rankings (that's an 11 seed if you solely based on that). 2-2 vs Q1 and 3-3 vs Q2. The teams above us have more wins against the Q1/Q2 teams. And we also have to consider that 7 of our 9 acc wins are against the worst 6 teams in the conference and our schedule was somewhat weak due to covid and acc not being great.
I am getting a little nervous and I will be real nervous with a loss on Thursday.
^ this.
We've been buoyed for a lot of the season by early ranked wins against Nova and Clemson, and then poll inertia. took over. We've had a few 1-1 weeks where we barely moved down at all despite losing blowouts to teams like Penn State, Pitt, Syracuse (GT was also a blowout but they're a top 4 ACC team that ended the season on a 6-game winning streak).
I'm not nervous about selection Sunday at all - we're solidly in the field. Our basement is likely a 10-seed, and that's with ND going on a run and upsetting UNC and us. Our ceiling is likely a 6-seed (maybe the last 5-seed) if we win the conference tourney with three more Q1 wins against other NCAA tournament-bound teams.
not concerned about get seeding or getting in to the tourney at all... more concerned about our ability to get anywhere in the ACC tourney without having had a game in a while, and we saw how we looked against GT the last time we came out of isolation. Hopefully we learned and get the benefit of playing a team that's already played twice in 2 days.
This time is a little different.
First the layoff isn't nearly as long. Second, the team was allowed to practice during the layoff. Third, as you mentioned, this is the second one.
My hope is that our legs are a bit fresher than our opponents and we can make a run in the ACC tourney.
Sounds like we will just have to set a new record for the highest seed to win it all.
How is the 3rd place team in the ACC almost in bubble territory? Is it covid related? In 2018 the ACC sent 9 teams to the tourney. What am I missing?
Acc is just down this year.
See my above reply. Again, we have to remember that we only have 2 wins against the acc top 9 teams. Much of that is covid related, true. But our resume will be kinda looking like a bubble team if we lose on Thursday
This is only Dukes 2nd time in the KenPom era not finishing in the top 10. The other time they were top 20. So typically we should be at least 4th. I wouldn't be surprised to see lower standing ACC teams get better spots in the tourney.
Our metrics have been pretty trash for most of the season compared to our record. With the metrics that are a part of the selection committee's team sheets, we are currently: 35th in BPI, 37th in SoR, 42nd in NET, 44th in KPI, 46th in Sagarin, and 47th in KenPom.
My guess is that the two ESPN metrics value wins and record a bit more strongly than the others, which is why we're significantly higher there. KenPom has a "Luck" measurement, which reflects "the deviation in winning percentage between a team's actual record and their expected record", and the Hokies are 26th.
Basically, the advanced metrics that factor into the committee's decision paint the picture that our record is much better than it should be compared to how well we're playing according.
So the eye test says we're a top 25 team and top 4 in the ACC, but the advanced stats have us closer to top 50. Split the difference and that's roughly where we are in most bracket projections. Also not playing much in the past month has us treading water at best, and dropping a seed line or two in most brackets.
obligatory reminder that Joe Lunardi anagrams to Dale Junior
OT, but the man has a fantastic podcast. I know there aren't many racing fans on here, but last week's episode with Dr. Jerry Punch (of Nascar pit road and football sideline fame) is great. Always thought he was a doctor for like, two years then discovered he had a great voice...nah.
And Dale Junior is basically retired at this point...just saying
speaking of Dale Junior... did you know his name anagrams to Joe Lunardi?
I liked it a lot better when we were slotted for a 6 seed a couple of weeks ago on Bracket Matrix. I always wanted a 6 seed, I feel like based on seedings its the optimal spot for making a Sweet 16 run.
Seeds 5 and 6 are nearly equivalent odds to make the sweet 16 historically. After that, there's a small drop off before a group that include the 7-seed, as well as seeds 10-12. Then another drop off before the 8-seed, and then seeds 9 and 13.
So if you aren't the favorite in your part of the bracket (top 4 seed lines), then those are the next best options for the Sweet 16.
Being a 9-seed is the least successful place for us to be put on the bracket - I'd rather us drop to a 10 than stay where we are (or even move up to an 8-seed). With a better draw in the ACC tournament - we would have a shot at the 7 seed line with two wins, but I don't like our chances against UNC and FSU back-to-back.
Let's get after them Louisiana Staters!
I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm feeling cocky about the NCAA tournament, but I also wouldn't be thrilled if I'm the 1 seed that would have to play us in the 2nd round if the seeds play out that way.
I get a strong 1996 vibe here. That year, we were ranked in the 20-25 range most of the year as a member of the A-10 and ended up getting a 9 seed where we played the eventual national champion Kentucky Wildcats. Watch us get Gonzaga in our bracket as the 1 seed.
That 1996 team was a lot of fun to root for. It was 4 four-year starters, plus junior Ace Custis (who was only a year behind the other starters because he redshirted a year) and some solid contributors from the bench. If I remember right, we cracked the top 10 for about a minute that season (just in time to play No. 1 U-Mass at Cassell with Marcus Camby and John Calipari).
That seeding in the tournament was really disappointing because it was a foregone conclusion we'd get run off the court by Kentucky in the second round (which in fact we did). I think this Virginia Tech team could actually upset a No. 1 seed, although I wouldn't feel real good if we drew Gonzaga or Baylor in the second round.
Was at that UMass game. A bunch of the football players were there. So, my brother and I harassed them all for signatures. They were all good about it. I seem to remember Billy Conaty being really nice to us.
I try to never get mad at Lunardi, his job is to predict what the committee will do and he's pretty good at it. This reeks of the committee not having seen us play in a month. While the advanced metrics may have us low, seeding us at 8 or lower is akin to the 2017 8 seed Wisconsin, which was an unfair matchup for us and #1 Villanova in the next round.
To be fair we also haven't really seen us play in a month
Wasn't that Wisconsin team top 20 in almost every metric and had spent the majority of the year in the top 10? That was absurd seeding.
I would have to go back and check. But I remember when the bracket came out that they were obviously underseeded. After that first weekend, I was pissed for us and sorry for Villanova who should've been able to make the sweet 16. I see similarities in teams Lunardi lists over us that I think the top seeds would rather play.
Joe can blow me
Joe Lunardi can blow me
FIFY
I am happy as long as we get in and actually play. After that, I wouldn't be too upset on this based on what he shows. Getting Illinois as the 1 seed in the second round is a game we could win. I just wouldn't want us to be in the same region as Gonzaga or Baylor as the 1 seeds.
Good take...if you had told me before the season that we'd make the Big Dance I'd consider the season a great success. Never in my wildest dreams did I think our coach would be the ACC COY. Heady times (except for football).
I'd rather drop down to the 10 seed if I'm being honest, easier path to the sweet 16 (theoretically).
Sunny side is if we get a really low seed or god-forbid we are kept out of the tourny, the talking heads next week will all say "How can ACC coach of the year and a team that beat #3 seed uva by 20 be left out" over and over.