2021-22 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume 1

As we turn the calendar to the month prefixed nine, but actually eleventh in order, (if you think whoever made that change should be stabbed, I have good news for you

Teamwork makes the dream work
- Marcus Junius Brutus, 44 BCE)

Hokie eyes turn to the hardwood (phrasing). What do we see before us, but optimism, and that horrible ex to whom we keep crawling back, Hope.

Entering his third year at Virginia Tech, Head Coach Mike Young once again sees new faces among the depth chart and among the starting 5, transfers galore, and someone new in coaches meetings.

Scoring
Gone are 6 scholarship players from last year. 3 via transfer, and 3 via graduation. In the scoring department, that represents the Hokies #3 (Radford), #6 (Cone), #7 (Bede), #9 (Bamisile), #10 (Diarra), and #11 (Pemsl) scorers, who accounted for 546 of the Hokies' 1585 points (34.4%). On the bright side, the top two returning players (Aluma and Alleyne) were responsible for more points last year than all of those other players.

I don't know if it's going to translate, but incoming r-Sr PG Storm Murphy is no slouch in the scoring department, having put up 426 last year. Incoming Sophomore transfer C Lynn Kidd will 30.hopefully supply more than a few buckets, as too should incoming freshmen Sean Pedulla and Jalen Haynes.

Rebounding
I was a little nervous before looking at this, to see what it revealed, but I was pleasantly surprised. The Hokies lose 234 rebounds from last year's haul of 760 (30.8%), with almost half belonging to Radford, alone. However, like in scoring, the top two returners from last year have more than all of those who are no longer on the roster. The two incoming transfers brought in about 90 last year, so there is still some extra window cleaning that will need to be done to get up to last year's figures. I expect players like Kidd, Ojiako, N'Guessan, and Haynes to get some run on the glass.

Assists
Say it with me now, oy vey. Led by Wabissa Bede's 69 (nice) assists from last year, the Hokies will be down 138 of 313 assists (44.1%). Perhaps more critically, the Hokies lose the only two players from last year's squad with ATO margins greater than 2.0, minimum of 2 TO. Murphy should be able to help the former, having dished 104 assists from last year. Hopefully, some expanded minutes helps the only player from last year's roster (Maddox) who had a 3-1 ATO margin. (Do your deductive reasoning to identify what his numbers were last year for this category).

Experience/Depth
This is where I would have to assume the Hokies shine, and I will be taking a look at this in depth as we do game previews. The Hokies have 11,215 combined minutes of roundball experience at the collegiate level divided among the 9 veteran players. Of those minutes, 6329 are among the guards and 4886 are among the forwards. The downside is that almost all of those minutes are shared among Aluma, Mutts, Alleyne, Cattoor, and Murphy. Only 610 minutes will be coming off the bench, and of those, 338 belong to Ojiako and 204 to N'Guessan. Guard depth consists of the 35 minutes of Maddox.

First Four
Virginia Tech opens up with the Maine Black Bears. While their mascot is fierce, their basketball team is decidedly not, having finished in the bottom two of the American East in each of the last eight seasons. They return their top two scorers, but those two were the only returners who averaged greater than a basket a half - Du Hart with 11ppg, and Ingo with 10.6ppg. The Hokies' top three returning scorers averaged more ppg last year than all of Maine's. The Hokies should have the advantage on the boards, and shouldn't have too much of a problem on the ATO front.

Navy is a slightly different beast. Coming off a 3 loss season, the Midshipmen return 11 players from last year's squad. While they lost their top scorer, they return the next 6 leading scorers, and 7 of the top 10. They rebound fairly well, but only two players have an ATO significantly better than 1:1.

Bizarro Radford returns 9 players from last year's 2nd place Big South finish. Like Navy, they lose their top scorer, but return 7 of their top 10, and the top 4 returners are all C/F. It appears they will be playing a forward heavy lineup, as their returning guards are, for lack of a better word, liabilities on offense with the entire returning guard experience returning less than 20ppg, combined. This game is gonna be a post war. As expected from a bigs-heavy lineup, they rebound well. Four players average better than 4 boards per game. However, also as expected from a bigs-heavy lineup, they have a poor ATO, with only 1 returning player having an ATO of greater than 1:1.

Rounding out this tetralogy will be the Red Flashes of St. Francis (PA). Coming off a tie for last in the Northeast Conference, they return 10 players, four of their top 5, and 7 of their top 10 scorers. They seem to be well balanced, just unable to stop anybody from scoring. 5 of their returners average 8 ppg or better. Five players average 4 boards per game. However, outside of their top player (Dixon-Conover) they really don't have a passing threat on offense, as only one other player has an ATO better than 1:1.

Prediction
This should be a four game sweep for the Hokies. We have the returning scoring, rebounding, ATO, experience, star caliber, and coaching to start off 4-0, and, with the exception of Navy, should be a dominant 4-0.

The Women's Team
Forgive me for failing the last two years to provide notes on Coach Brooks' squad. As good as I think the men will be this year, I have hopes that the women will be even better.

Here's my reasoning, using the metrics I like to use.

Scoring
Only 211 of last season's 1804 points are gone. The additions of Norris, Lytle, and Traylor bring in a combined average of 624 points per season. The losses sustained from last year's squad were replaced with much more capable scorers. The Hokies return their top 4 scorers and 6 of their top 7 from last season. To put the transfers into perspective, Traylor and Lytle would slot in at #3 and #4 respectively, while Norris would sneak into the top 10. All this doesn't include r-Fr G Shamarla King, who was a 17 ppg player coming out of high school.

Rebounding
The Hokies lose 182 rebounds from last year, but manage to replace 246 of them. Over a span of 32ish games, that's 2 more boards per game. Given that 7 of last year's losses were by two scores or fewer, that could have made a major impact in conference tournament and NCAA tournament standings.

Assists
The Hokies do lose out a little bit in the ATO margin, but that doesn't really hurt the team where only Kitley had an ATO of less than 1:1 last year. However, among the incoming transfers, only Traylor can claim the same. But anyway you slice it, this team is more likely to dish an assist than commit a turnover.

Experience/Depth
Just when I start thinking about how much experience the men have, I look at the women. Three players have accrued over 2000 minutes. Another two have over 1000. Three and possibly a fourth will eclipse 1000 this season. As a whole, this Virginia Tech Women's team will be close to eclipsing 15,000 combined minutes by the end of the second game. As far as where the experience lies, 7,000 lie with the 5 centers, forwards, and G/Fs, 7,500 lie with the 7 guards.

The starting 5 will probably be Kitley, Sheppard, Amoore, Traylor, and Lytle by my guess. Norris and Gregg will come in to spell Kitley or to provide a second big, when size is needed. C King, Baines, and S King should be able to provide rotation for the guards. I think Geiman and Brooks will be the ones most likely to lose minutes as a result of the quality of the transfer players.

First Four
The Hokies will open with Davidson, coming off of a 12th place finish in the A10. They feature a single scoring threat from the post, and three quality scorers from the guard position. They rebound well, especially from the guard position. However, only one player has an ATO significantly greater than 1:1. If the Hokies guards can play solid defense, this will be an easy win.

George Washington finished one spot ahead of Davidson in the A10. They are not tall, and they will probably play a guard heavy lineup. As with Davidson, they only feature one real scoring threat from the post, but only one player on the roster averages more than 10 ppg, and none of their players have an ATO much better than 1:1. With the Hokies' height advantage inside and on the perimeter, this shouldn't be close.

The other George finished dead last in the A10. They certainly return a ton of last year's squad, but that isn't necessarily a good thing. They get a little bit of production out of their post players, outside of one, and they really only get production from one guard. Nobody on the roster recorded an ATO of 1:1 or better. This should be a massacre in the Hokies' favor.

Finally taking a step out of the A10, the Hokies will round out the start of the season with the MEAC basement dweller Coppin State. Coppin State has one scoring threat from the post and one from the perimeter, and they rebound somewhat well. They do not pass well, so this should be a good game for steals. It's hard to find any of their significant contributors who have an ATO margin of better than 1:2

Prediction
Like with the men's team, the 2021-22 iteration of the women's basketball team should start off 4-0, with convincing wins. I don't see any of these teams being significant threats to the Hokies. Like the men, this Hokies' women's team has too many higher rated players and a better coach to fall to any of these much poorer quality teams.