2021-22 Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume VII

The Men's Team
Is this optimism?

Am I allowed this?

Did we just have four consecutive FAM threads?

Do we have the next three at home and then a road game against a current bottom feeder?

I don't know about the first two, but the answers to the last two are yeses. For the first time since the first four games this season, the Hokies finish a tetralogy at 4-0, but these four are much more impressive, including two road wins, topped off by a rare win in Tallahassee.

Scoring
In this frame, the Hokies put up their highest scoring numbers for any edition this season, averaging 79 ppg. What makes this all the more impressive, is that scoring is coming from many fronts, consistently. Aluma leads all Hokies with 13 ppg, followed by a much maligned Murphy at 12.75 and a lethal Cattoor at 12.5. Three Hokies getting 10+ ppg is damn good. Add in that Mutts is sitting at 9.75, Alleyne at 8.75, and Pedulla at 8.5, and we're at six players who averaged within a single basket of double figures. Other significant contributors included Maddox (6.75 ppg) and N'Guessan (6 ppg). Ojiako also contributed 1 ppg over the frame. Having your starters combine for over 50 and your bench getting you over 20 will do wonders.

Rebounding
There is one concerning trend, and that rebounding numbers are consistently showing a downward trend. Mutts (6.5), Aluma (4.5), Cattoor/N'Guessan (4.25), and Murphy (2.25) are the only Hokies averaging more than 1 rebound per half. The rest of the team combined for an average of 4 rebounds per game.

Assists
If I had to guess, the three teams we played over this four game window were not good defensively, as 7 Hokies not only had an ATO better than 1:1, but 6 of them had better than 2:1. The best margin belonged to N'Guessan at 7:1. Leading the team in assists was Murphy with 13 to just 6 turnovers. Pedulla (12:6), Cattoor (10:6), and Mutts (10:14) also had double digit assists over this window. Alleyne (7:1), Maddox (3:1), and Varga (1:0) finished with positive ATO margins, while Aluma (5:10) had negative margins.

Experience/Depth
For the first time since non-conference play, every Hokie saw the court. Cattoor was the only Hokie over 30 minutes, with 32.25. Mutts (28.25), Alleyne (26.75), Aluma (26), Murphy (25.25), and N'Guessan (21) round out the players who got the majority of minutes, while Maddox (19.75) just missed out and Pedulla (16.25) also saw significant minutes. That's 8 players who are averaging almost a half or more of game time. Ojiako (3.25) was the only other player who averaged at least a minute per team game. The end of the bench combined for the final 1.75 minutes per game, average.

Next Four
As alluded to earlier, the next four will see three straight home games and a road trip to a current bottom feeder. I say current because we have shown that it is possible to move up quite rapidly in 3 games.

First the Hokies take on Syracuse. The Orange are near the top of the ACC in scoring at 78.4 ppg and score the second most 3 ptrs per game, behind the Hokies. They are dead middle of the road in FT%. They rebound significantly better than the Hokies, and they average an assist more per game, while turning it over the same amount as the Hokies. For the Hokies to do well, they have to limit Buddy Boeheim from beyond the arc and Jesse Edwards down low.

Next is the home game against UVA. The Hokies dropped a heartbreaker earlier this year in Charlottesville and look for revenge. As per usual, the Hoos are near the bottom of the ACC in scoring, only 1.7 ppg better than Pitt. Conversely, they are the best in team defense at 59.9 ppg. They actually only average +3.6 ppg. They don't blow people out, they don't get blown out. The Hoos don't quite make 1 out of 3 from beyond the arc and they are equal to the Hokies from the charity stripe. There are just two teams below the Hokies in rebounds per game in the ACC: UVA is one of them. They have identical assist numbers, but take care of the ball better than the Hokies, giving up just under 10 turnovers per game. Disrupting Beekman and Clark in the passing lanes, while protecting the ball will be critical.

Rounding out the homestand, the Hokies welcome UNC. The Tar Heels are fourth in the conference in scoring and scoring defense, and they are second in the conference in 3pt% and lead in FT%. They also lead the conference rebounding, at over 40 boards per game. They have similar assist numbers to the Hokies, but do turn the ball over slightly more. It will be crucial for the Hokies to keep the ball out of Bacot's hands, and keeping the Heels from the FT line.

The lone trip the Hokies take this frame will be down to Georgia Tech. The Hokies won by 15 earlier this year in Blacksburg. They score slightly less than the Hokies but give up a noticeable amount more. They are fairly decent from beyond the arc but are particularly dreadful from the FT line, averaging less than 69% as a team (not nice in this instance). Limit Devoe's scoring, and this should be a walkover.

Prediction
Syracuse and UVA are always tossups. I want to believe the Hokies can beat UNC, but the Tar Heels' strength is our weakness. GT appears to be the only safe win on the board.

Gambler's Fallacy full effect. Syracuse has only lost once in Blacksburg since the Hokies joined the ACC. Hokies are due. UNC is 6-3 in Blacksburg, but the Hokies won the most recent in double OT. UVA is 9-7 over that same time frame and the Hokies haven't won the home side of the home and home since 2017.

My prediction is 3-1 with a heartbreaking, blood-pressure raising loss to UNC.

The Women's Team
Coming off of a strong 3-1 performance, Coach Brooks' squad is now sitting on the double-bye for the ACC Tournament, tied with Notre Dame at 10-3. The most recent ESPN Bracketology lists the Hokies as a 6-seed.

Scoring
The Hokies were no strangers to scoring over the four game set, with four players accruing 20+ point games, and two more garnered 15+ point games. Slightly leading the way for the Hokies was Kitley (13.75 ppg), followed by the double digit scoring Amoore (12.25), Sheppard (11.5), and Traylor (10.25). Just missing out on double figures was Baines at 9.25 ppg. C. King (6), Gregg (2.75), and Lytle (2.5) rounded out the scoring for the Hokies. As a team, they averaged 68.25 ppg, up 3.25 from the previous edition, which was up 1.5 ppg from Volume 5.

Rebounding
Despite her scoring "struggles," Kitley still led the team in rebounding this frame, just crossing the double digit threshold at 10 boards per game. This is the third volume of this edition where she managed to average a double-double over the frame. However, as a team, the Hokies rebounding has gone downhill, as they only averaged 29.25 boards over the frame. Baines (5.5) and Gregg (4) each averaged at least one rebound per quarter, while Sheppard (2.75), and Traylor/Lytle (2.25 each) averaged at least one per half. C. King (1.5) and Amoore (1) were the other contributors.

Assists
C. King (8:3 ATO) barely edged out Amoore (15:6) for best percentage with at least one assist per game. Gregg (3:1) and Baines (7:6) were the only other players with a positive ATO Margin, while Kitley was the worst in this regard at 1:12.

Experience/Depth
Kitley was on the court the longest, with 32.25 minutes per game; the only player over 30. Sheppard and Amoore came close at 29.75 mpg each, while C. King (27.25), Baines (22.25), Traylor (22), and Gregg (16.5) also garnered at least four minutes per quarter. Lytle was the only other Hokies to see any action, getting an average of 11 minutes per game.

Next Four
It is make or break for Coach Brooks' squad. First, they will welcome UNC. UNC is third in the ACC in scoring and fourth in the ACC in scoring D, however they lead the conference in scoring margin. They are below average in three point shooting, but lead the conference in three point defense. They are a hair below 70% from the charity stripe. UNC rebounds very well, but they allow more than the Hokies. To win, the Hokies will have to control Deja Kelly and Alyssa Ustby. Last time out, the Tar Heels crushed the Hokies in Chapel Hill 71-46.

Then the Hokies travel to the House of Horrors that is the Carrier Dome. If there is a gimmie game in this frame, this is it, as Syracuse will be the last team the Hokies play with a losing record. They do score well with the 4th best scoring offense in the ACC, but are dead last in scoring defense. As a result, they are almost last in scoring margin at +1.6 ppg. The one danger is that they are the best in the conference from the FT line at almost 80% as a team. Expect the Hokies to have an advantage on the boards.

Continuing on the road, the Hokies next travel to Louisville. The Cardinals score slightly better than the Hokies and allow roughly the same number of points per game, putting the Cardinals 3rd in the conference in scoring margin. They are one of the few teams who shoot better than the Hokies from beyond the arc, and they defend the 3 better as well. The difference is that the Hokies have taken 165 more 3 ptrs. There is no advantage from the FT line, except that the Hokies foul less, so that may mean a few extra points in the Hokies' favor, there. The two are similar in rebounding, except the Cardinals have a decided advantage in rebounding margin. They do turn the ball over more than the Hokies, so that could also be an advantage.

Coming back home, the Hokies round out this frame with Miami. The Canes don't score that much, but they also don't allow much, out-scoring their opponents by an average of a basket a game. They are pretty bad from beyond the arc, but are very good at defending the 3. They're also pretty bad from the FT line. They don't rebound much better than the Hokies and they allow slightly more than the Hokies. They are not a good team in the passing lanes, having a .82:1 ATO margin.

Prediction
Syracuse and Miami should be easy wins. UNC scares me. Louisville is a tossup. I have to give the tossup to the home team.

2-2.

However, this team has consistently been .750 throughout the year.

3-1 with the win at Louisville.